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TD Week 2

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Posted: #26
great job TD 
 
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Posted: #27
Most of the remaining College Extra games are released.  But some games are still not out yet.  Here's a few more I had been eyeing the opener.

5D FCS vs FBS & College Extra:

Added:  Richmond -2.5  (1u)
South Dakota +7.5 (0.5u) & +7 (0.25u) -- 0.75u overall
Howard +31.5 (0.5u)  
Tennessee-Martin +29.5  (0.25u) & +31 (0.25u) -- 0.5u overall
Tennessee-Martin / Mississippi Under 68  (0.5u)
Added:  North Dakota State -3  (0.5u)
Added:  Northern Iowa -17  -130  (0.3u)
Eastern Kentucky +34  (0.25u)
Sam Houston State -23  (0.25u)
 
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Posted: #28
Beyond super opening week, TD! Congrats and thanks for sharing
 
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Posted: #29
The last few FCS games were released.  This should be it for awhile.

5D FCS vs FBS & College Extra:

Richmond -2.5  (1u)
South Dakota +7.5 (0.5u) & +7 (0.25u) -- 0.75u overall
Howard +31.5 (0.5u)  
Tennessee-Martin +29.5  (0.25u) & +31 (0.25u) -- 0.5u overall
Tennessee-Martin / Mississippi Under 68  (0.5u)
North Dakota State -3  (0.5u)
Added:  North Carolina Central -37.5 (0.5u)
Added:  Western Illinois -1.5  (0.5u)
Northern Iowa -17  -130  (0.3u)
Eastern Kentucky +34  (0.25u)
Sam Houston State -23  (0.25u)
 
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Posted: #30
FBS Totals locked in:

Stanford / USC Under 56 (1.5u)
Auburn / Clemson Under 54  (1.5u)
Utah / BYU Under 47.5  (1.25u)
Oklahoma / Ohio State Under 64.5  (1u)
 
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Posted: #31
Rutgers opened at PLUS 2.5 at home vs. EMU??? That may be one of the worst opening lines I've ever seen. Somebody is drunk or blind making that line.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Rutgers opened at PLUS 2.5 at home vs. EMU??? That may be one of the worst opening lines I've ever seen. Somebody is drunk or blind making that line.

  My PR#s have Rutgers -5.3

Gotta love that betonline.com.
 
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Posted: #33
DoubleUp,

Skipster,

dcgmt,

Last2thirst,

Laroja,

sportschat,

Lionmonster,

Thanks everyone!    I appreciate the responses.  Here's to a strong week 2.  Good luck to all.  


 
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Posted: #34
Added a couple late yesterday:

Sacramento State -7 (0.25u)
Eastern Illinois / Northern Illinois Under 56 (0.25u)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #35
Awesome week TD! What books do you use? It looks like Betonline and 5dimes? Is that correct? Thanks!
 
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Posted: #36
Added/bumped a few plays....

Week 2 card:   

>1 unit plays: 
Mississippi State -3  120 (2.5u)
Oregon  -2.5  (2u)
Ohio State -6.5  (1u) & -7 (1u) -- 2u
Rutgers +2.5  (1.5u)
Kansas -3  (1.5u) 
Auburn +9 (1u) & +6 (0.5u) -- 1.5u
Stanford / USC Under 56 (1.5u)
Auburn / Clemson Under 54  (1.5u)
Utah / BYU Under 47.5  (1.25u)

1 unit plays:  
Stanford +10.5  (1u)
SMU -11 (1u)
Washington State -7 -105 (1u)
Richmond -2.5  (1u)
South Dakota +7.5 (0.5u) & +7 (0.25u) & Added +7.5 again (0.25u) -- 1u

0.75 units:  
Idaho -8.5  
Fresno State +45
NC State -19.5 
Michigan -25  
Indiana -2.5 (0.25u) & -3 (0.5u)

0.5 units:  
Oregon State +3  
Tulsa -13  +100 
UTSA +17
Duke +4.5
Michigan State -3  
Purdue -2 & -2.5  
Wake Forest +3 & +4  
Colorado -34.5
Added:  Boston College / Wake Forest Under 47  
Howard +31.5 
Tennessee-Martin +29.5 & +31 
Tennessee-Martin / Mississippi Under 68 
North Dakota State -3
North Carolina Central -37.5
Western Illinois -1.5 

0.25 - 0.3 units:  
Illinois +7.5
South Carolina +4.5  
Northern Iowa -17  -130 (0.3u)
Eastern Kentucky +34  
Sam Houston State -23 
Sacramento State -7 
Eastern Illinois / Northern Illinois Under 56 

UDML:  
Added:  South Dakota +230 (risk 0.2u)

UDML parlay:  
Added: 
Massachusetts +155 
South Dakota +230
Stanford +200
(risk 0.05u, pays +2,425)
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by steponaduck:

ECU above south ala? 

steponaduck,
    I think you're right....  at least concerning South Alabama -- probably a low rating for them.  This is an inconsistent team that I struggled to grade out at the end of 2016.

     I went back and took another look.  I had them at a PR # of 52.4 to end 2016.  Using my own #s for all opponents, they came out at 7-6 ATS and with a full season ATS margin of +46.1 (+42.6 for the San Diego State game alone).  Knowing how Rocky Long approaches non-league games, I could not give "full credit" to that large plus # for the margin they covered by.  This is a flaky team to me that seems to play to their level of competition (again, maybe higher upside and I should consider reflecting that in a revised #).  But then again, 1-7 ATS vs. Sun Belt opponents.

ATS margin breakdown I had:
vs. #26:  +42.6 pts
vs.  #55 - #76:  average +7.9 pts
vs. #89 - #101:  average -1.4 pts
vs. #113 - two bad FCS opponents:  average -4.8 pts

And, for offseason adjustments I knocked them down slightly even further, especially on offense with the loss of their top 4 WRs/TE.  Basically no change / slight improvement in the offseason adjustment I did for defense.

All that said, my #s spit out a line against Oklahoma State of 32.  Well off of market fair line value.

Anyway, good comment there.  You've always had a good eye for these things.  Thanks for the feedback.  Will adjust according going forward.  I'm interested to see if they can continue their ways of playing up to tougher opponents vs. Oklahoma State.



 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:

Not sure why you are so high on Ohio State, I see them losing to Oklahoma... They looked plain bad against Iowa, and their secondary got shredded...

USC looked absolutely horrible too... They literally almost lost to unranked Western Michigan...

Oklahoma should be top 5...

You put Florida ahead of South Carolina?

I just stopped reading after that... 



Tappy,
   I really like OSU at home vs. Oklahoma.  Think they cover and win going away.  I think they somewhat outclass Oklahoma and show it.  OSU top 3 talent in the nation IMO with Alabama and Clemson.

USC may be overvalued.  12 straight weeks of games is another factor that somehow has to be built in to their rating.  They can't extend themselves every week.

And I set the DVR tonight to record the entire UM / Florida game.  I saw bits and pieces on Saturday but was going back & forth from other games that I actually had $ on and then the rest of the family and extended family got home and it was complete chaos for my football watching agenda.  .... Anyway, you are probably right that Florida should be knocked down a little further.  I noticed tonight that my spreadsheet had a correct "0" for home field advantage points (neutral site game) in the week 1 column, but not in week 2 and beyond columns for the same game (*I track the ebb & flow of all game lines if they were played any given week).  What I thought was updated to a calculated 7.6 point spread on this game, actually was not.

Not sure I'm quite ready to put South Carolina ahead of Florida  (that would be a real over-reaction IMO this early in the year).  But they are certainly rising with that big win.  Will see if they can sustain the momentum.  I think Missouri has major issues on defense and the strong QB play on offense may not be able to make up for the terrible D.

Hang in there man (reading this thread that is)....  Hopefully you make it a little further next time.  Good luck this weekend and thanks for the feedback.
 
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Posted: #39
Td..... any interest in alcorn+20? They can score with a good O and i cant imagine fiu's fully in this game after basically evacuating to alabama for this game......and have made plans to stay in birmingham all week if needed. Also nxt game is a big matchup @Indiana.
 
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Posted: #40
puffkit .. BAAAAAM, GREEN EGGS AND HAAAAAM 
 
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Posted: #41
TD21,

Nice work. I appreciate all the hard work it must take to develop your own PR #'s. I thought about doing this myself with College Football and Basketball. Do you do basketball as well? I'm more of a Football person.

Back in 2008 I had a 10 game parlay ticket. I placed $10 on the ticket and the payout would have been just over $6400. Going into the final game I was 9 for 9, and on the 10th game I lost. I wouldn't mind losing on an earlier game, but the last game was a girl.

Keep posting. I'll keep checking in and I'll probably play some your plays. 

Good luck.
 
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Posted: #42
TD...I am a bit confused. Where do you see lines like Oregon -2 1/2 or Stanford +101/2? I know they never opened at close to your numbers. I follow and respect your capping but as I said, I am confused.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by bitty11:

TD...I am a bit confused. Where do you see lines like Oregon -2 1/2 or Stanford +101/2? I know they never opened at close to your numbers. I follow and respect your capping but as I said, I am confused.


absolutely no need to be confused.  i'll clear it up for you.

they 100% opened at those numbers at BOL.

here is Oregon for example:

09/03/17 02:33:54pm +6½ev -6½-20
09/03/17 02:33:30pm +6ev -6-20
09/03/17 02:32:53pm +5ev -5-20
09/03/17 02:32:23pm +4ev -4-20
09/03/17 02:32:04pm +3ev -3-20
09/03/17 02:31:46pm +3-05 -3-15
09/03/17 02:31:09pm +2½-10 -2½-10
09/03/17 02:30:33pm +2-10 -2-10
 
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Posted: #44
Puffkit, personally I would pass.  I really have not reviewed this game in much detail at all.  Did not initially catch my eye as a potential play either way, so I didn't spend any more time on it.  As a general statement, I would rarely ever consider playing a swac or meac team playing an FBS opponent.  I see you're more up to speed than I am on FIU's last few days due to Irma.  May affect them worse next week at IU.  I saw +21 about a half hr ago but seeing 20 now in a couple places.  I'd want to be on the right side of a key # to back a swac team.
 
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Posted: #45
Added: OU / Purdue Under 28 1st half -120 (0.25u)

In non-league games like this, Solich likes to slow the pace / stay in it through 3 qtrs / as long as he can to give his team a chance in the 4th.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by jefff:



absolutely no need to be confused.  i'll clear it up for you.

they 100% opened at those numbers at BOL.

here is Oregon for example:

09/03/17 02:33:54pm +6½ev -6½-20
09/03/17 02:33:30pm +6ev -6-20
09/03/17 02:32:53pm +5ev -5-20
09/03/17 02:32:23pm +4ev -4-20
09/03/17 02:32:04pm +3ev -3-20
09/03/17 02:31:46pm +3-05 -3-15
09/03/17 02:31:09pm +2½-10 -2½-10
09/03/17 02:30:33pm +2-10 -2-10

bitty11, this is exactly right. As post #8 says, Betonline openers.

Thanks jefff, what site logs this minute by minute level of detail?  I honestly didn't know a site kept this level of detail.  Good to know for when I get the same question next week.  
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by jefff:



absolutely no need to be confused.  i'll clear it up for you.

they 100% opened at those numbers at BOL.

here is Oregon for example:

09/03/17 02:33:54pm +6½ev -6½-20
09/03/17 02:33:30pm +6ev -6-20
09/03/17 02:32:53pm +5ev -5-20
09/03/17 02:32:23pm +4ev -4-20
09/03/17 02:32:04pm +3ev -3-20
09/03/17 02:31:46pm +3-05 -3-15
09/03/17 02:31:09pm +2½-10 -2½-10
09/03/17 02:30:33pm +2-10 -2-10

Is that real? The line moved 4.5 points in 3 minutes?
 
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Posted: #48
Made some updates last night to the Sunday / Monday games previously shown in red.  Did not have a chance to post until now.  Also made some other tweaks.  After another look at the Ole Miss / South Alabama game being 47-13 in the 4th qtr and 2 late scores made it 47-27, I felt a little better about where I have South Alabama.  Decided to keep them there until I saw them play Oklahoma State.  Also, tells me that Mississippi this year is a little like Baylor last year - no depth.  First 11 guys on defense ok, but they'll play to avoid injuries late in non-conference games like this.  
*Just found two previous typos and corrected; Colorado and Ohio U. not downgraded (well, not yet for OU), just correcting my original # from last Sunday.

None of last night's games or tonight's games are included.  Strictly a post week 1 update.

2017 Week 2 - my updated PR #s:

Alabama  100.0
Ohio State 95.2
Clemson  91.7
Auburn  91.1
Washington  90.8
USC  90.2
Penn State  90.1
LSU  88.8
Oklahoma  88.6
Oklahoma State  88.3
Wisconsin  88.1
Florida State  88.0 
Georgia  86.6
Michigan  86.5
Stanford  85.5
Notre Dame  82.5
Miami  81.6
Kansas State  81.6
Louisville  81.2
TCU  81.0
Florida  80.9
North Carolina State  80.9
Washington State  79.7
Virginia Tech 79.6
UCLA  79.3
Houston  79.3
Oregon  78.9
Utah  78.3
Texas  78.2
Tennessee  76.9
Colorado  76.7
Arkansas  76.5
Iowa  76.3
South Carolina  76.3
Northwestern  76.0
Colorado State  75.9
Georgia Tech  75.9
Mississippi State  75.6
Pittsburgh  75.3
San Diego State  75.3
South Florida  75.2
Texas A&M  75.1
Memphis  75.0
BYU  74.8
Boise State  74.7
West Virginia  74.7
Nebraska  74.4
Vanderbilt  74.4
Mississippi  74.0
North Carolina  73.8
Indiana  73.7
Kentucky  73.0
Duke  72.4
Navy  72.4
Toledo  72.3
Michigan State  72.2
Western Michigan  71.8
Central Florida  71.3
Maryland  71.3
Minnesota  71.3
Iowa State  71.2
Oregon State  71.0
Tulsa  71.0
Missouri  70.9
Appalachian State  70.6
Texas Tech  70.3
Baylor  70.1
Arizona State  70.0
SMU  69.6
Western Kentucky  69.1
California  68.3
Louisiana Tech  68.1
Troy  67.9
Boston College  67.6
Wake Forest  67.4
Arizona  67.3
Wyoming  66.7
Miami (OH)  66.3
Arkansas State  66.2
Temple  66.1
Syracuse  65.7
Virginia  65.6
Purdue  64.9
Middle Tennessee 64.7
Army  64.3
Air Force  64.0
Ohio University  63.6
Texas San Antonio  63.6
Rutgers  62.9
Tulane  62.0
Kansas  62.0
Cincinnati  61.2
Marshall  60.5
Eastern Michigan  60.4
Illinois  60.3
Southern Miss 60.3
New Mexico  60.0
Hawaii  60.0
Northern Illinois  59.4
Old Dominion  59.3
Utah State  58.9
Georgia Southern  58.1
North Texas  57.1
Ball State  56.4
Idaho  56.2
Fresno State  55.6
Central Michigan  55.6
Massachusetts  55.4
Connecticut  55.4
Nevada  55.3
Louisiana Monroe  54.7
Coastal Carolina  54.7
East Carolina  54.6
Florida International  54.5
Akron  54.5
San Jose State  54.4
Bowling Green  54.3
Louisiana Lafayette  54.0
Florida Atlantic  53.4
South Alabama  53.2
Georgia State  53.1
Buffalo  51.0
New Mexico State  50.3
UAB  48.5
Rice  48.5
UNLV  48.3
Kent State  47.6
UTEP  46.2
Charlotte  45.0
Texas State  41.9
 
Captain
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:


Is that real? The line moved 4.5 points in 3 minutes?

Yes, the BOL lines are corrected almost instantly.  Still not sure where he found that very early line movement, but it is what happens.  

The Mississippi State line is another good example.  From the time I saw it open at PK, there's about 5 clicks to lock in your bet; 1) select the team/line  2) select straight bet  3) click max bet or enter $ amount  4) submit wager  5) confirm wager.

By the time I tried to confirm, it went to -1.5 I believe it was.  Didn't get that either.  Then on the 3rd or 4th try I finally locked in -3 @-120.  All this literally within 20-30 seconds.
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #50
Added one more small UDML parlay this morning - haven't had a chance to post.

Also just added some action Team Total plays tonight.

Anyone else surprised at the Clemson / Auburn total increasing so much?

stupid 7800 characters, really!?  will have to split this up.

Week 2 card:   

>1 unit plays: 
Mississippi State -3  120 (2.5u)
Oregon  -2.5  (2u)
Ohio State -6.5  (1u) & -7 (1u) -- 2u
Rutgers +2.5  (1.5u)
Kansas -3  (1.5u) 
Auburn +9 (1u) & +6 (0.5u) -- 1.5u
Stanford / USC Under 56 (1.5u)
Auburn / Clemson Under 54  (1.5u)
Utah / BYU Under 47.5  (1.25u)

1 unit plays:  
Stanford +10.5  (1u)
SMU -11 (1u)
Washington State -7 -105 (1u)
Richmond -2.5  (1u)
South Dakota +7.5 (0.75u) & +7 (0.25u) -- 1u

0.75 units:  
Idaho -8.5  
Fresno State +45
NC State -19.5 
Michigan -25  
Indiana -2.5 (0.25u) & -3 (0.5u)


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