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TD Week 2

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

A couple more College Extra plays....

Week 2:
Maryland -14  (2u)
Mississippi State -3 *GOY line (1u) & -4 (0.5u) (1.5u overall)
Alabama -35  (1.5u)
Arkansas -8.5  (1.5u)
Wisconsin  -33 (1.25u)
Utah / Northern Illinois  Under 51.5  (1u)
Clemson -9.5 -140  (0.75u)
Hawaii -15.5  (0.75u)
California +3 hook (0.5u)  & +3 +100 (0.25u) -- (0.75u overall)
New Mexico / Wisconsin Over 55 (0.5u) & Over 55.5 (0.25u) -- (0.75u overall)
TCU -19  (0.5u)
Georgia Tech -2.5  (0.5u)
Arkansas / Colorado State Over 66.5  (0.5u)
Houston / Arizona Under 64 -105  (0.5u)
Cincinnati / Miami (OH) Under 50  (0.5u)
Texas -20 (0.25u)
Illinois -4 & -6
Tennessee -33.5 & -35
Boston College -41.5
Eastern Kentucky +29.5
Maine / Western Kentucky Under 52
Howard / Kent State Over 59.5
Nicholls State +21.5


Week 2 College Extra:
Kennesaw State -14 hook
Delaware -23.5
Wofford -27
James Madison -36.5 & -38

Of course the one play I decided not to list here last minute (hoping to post it Saturday after getting much better limits) has already moved 5 points.  Well done guys.  You know your FCS football.

By the way, did anyone else notice that the Westgate Saturday morning FCS lines (and Betonline FCS opening #s) were remarkably similar to the 5D lines that had been bet on all week?  ...Somewhat surprised that Westgate's #s were that aligned.
 
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Posted: #52

TD - appreciate all of your hard work, you and BA are the best on here. I hate to be that guy so I apologize in advance.. Where do you make your FBS v FCS plays? I recently joined BetOnline so am not sure when they typically post those games. Not trying to be lazy, just can’t find that info anywhere. Thanks in advance 

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by WaterMalone:

TD - appreciate all of your hard work, you and BA are the best on here. I hate to be that guy so I apologize in advance.. Where do you make your FBS v FCS plays? I recently joined BetOnline so am not sure when they typically post those games. Not trying to be lazy, just can’t find that info anywhere. Thanks in advance 


FBS vs. FCS and FCS. vs. FCS openers are 5Dimes.  Betonline will have FBS vs. FCS on game day only.  

And I'm hopeful it will continue, but this last Saturday was the first time I recall ever seeing FCS vs. FCS games offered by Betonline on game day.

Betonline will post them in the same section as all their other college games.

Best of luck to you this year!  
 
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Posted: #54
The more I think about it, the more I like it....

Week 2:
Maryland -14  (2u)
New Mexico / Wisconsin Over 55 (0.5u) & Over 55.5 (0.25u) and Over 54 (1u) -- (1.75u overall)
Mississippi State -3 *GOY line (1u) & -4 (0.5u) (1.5u overall)
Alabama -35  (1.5u)
Arkansas -8.5  (1.5u)
Wisconsin  -33 (1.25u)
Houston / Arizona Under 64 -105  (0.5u)  & Under 71 (0.5u) & Added:  Under 70.5 +100 (0.25u) -- (1.25u overall) 
Utah / Northern Illinois  Under 51.5  (1u)
Clemson -9.5 -140  (0.75u)
Hawaii -15.5  (0.75u)
California +3 hook (0.5u)  & +3 +100 (0.25u) -- (0.75u overall)
TCU -19  (0.5u)
Georgia Tech -2.5  (0.5u)
Arkansas / Colorado State Over 66.5  (0.5u)
Cincinnati / Miami (OH) Under 50  (0.5u)
Texas -20 (0.25u)
Illinois -4 & -6
Tennessee -33.5 & -35
Boston College -41.5 & -41
Eastern Kentucky +29.5
Maine / Western Kentucky Under 52
Howard / Kent State Over 59.5
Nicholls State +21.5
Youngstown State +31 & +31.5

Week 2 College Extra:
Kennesaw State -14 hook
Delaware -23.5
Wofford -27
James Madison -36.5 & -38
Weber State / Cal POLY Under 46.5
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by Tappy:


lmao ok 

Tappy, just to be clear I'd be busting your ballz for a statement like "You were impressed by Wisconsin?" even if I had the side bet on the brain rather than the total.

There's line value, matchups, and "spot" play ("situational" - whatever you want to call it) factors in every game offered.  If I can get just slight line value and a really good matchup and/or "spot" (or both), then I'm probably going to make the play.  Wisconsin below -35 fits the bill regardless of them not quite covering vs. WKU.  And I still can't say I was "impressed" by Wisconsin.  That WKU game went as expected IMO.  Hope that makes sense.  I'm a d@mn engineer that might fit the anal engineer personality from time to time - so me nitpicking words about being impressed is just me being me.  Being impressed vs. finding a play is comparing apples to oranges for me.  I might bet on a team this week and then bet against them the very next week depending upon the matchup & "spot". 

Also, I went back and reread my one post.... I never did finish my thought about how New Mexico in previous year's has been ball control on offense to help the bad defense (65-67 plays per game in 2017 I believe it was).  This year they have hired one of the 2017 Arizona co-OC's (much faster pace under RR).  They ran 91 plays on offense last week in his first game as OC.  Think that will have an impact on the New Mexico defense being on the field more snaps per game?  It did against I.W. - so I'm betting that it will again vs. Wisconsin's ground game.

Best of luck this week!  And please just put up with me for the personality flaws.  

  
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I can’t believe you got Tulane over 4.5 games. That is a dream line.

Clearly after their week 1 showing, you will win.

Scal, steponaduck gets the credit for this find.  I was just smart enough to quickly agree and jump on it as well.

May not win.  You never know.  I've lost on some of the best available lines many times.  They need to just get a win vs. Nicholls State this weekend which is no gimmie.  Arguably the best team in the Southland this year.  They are pretty reasonable in the trenches on both sides of the ball I think.  And Tulane coming off what looked like a hard fought game (by both sides) vs. Wake Forest -- tough to say how dinged up they really are.  But it's only week 2, they should be fine.
 
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Posted: #57

I too had some asswipe talk shit about lines on my Week 1 post, no need to waste your time justifying anything.....I try to bang offshore account early soon as lines come out.....then by Thursday will post my final picks here using the current lines in Las Vegas. 

GL this week...I too have Hawaii at -17.....like your number better but I think will both cover.

Pura Vida
 
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Posted: #58

TD,

Thoughts on Missouri vs Wyoming Over/Under at 52? I got the over.

Thoughts on Hawaii vs Rice Over/Under at 70? It's close to me. I see it 45-28 type game. That puts it fairly close to 70. Is the value just not there this game?

Last question for you - Oklahoma St -32 vs South Alabama. I feel like OSU always blows these types of teams out by 40+. Thoughts? 

 

I'm looking to add 2-3 more picks. 

 
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Posted: #59

TD happy to see ya ma' man. BOL this week bud.  Thanks for all you do, and I immediately say "This guy knows what he's talkin about!"  Just sayin man.  an_cheers

 
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Posted: #60

Added:  Southern Illinois +31

 
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Posted: #61

College Extra:

Added:  Abilene Christian -3

 

Very busy yesterday and didn’t have a chance to get on the forum.  Hopefully some extra time tonight to talk CFB.

 
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Posted: #62

Not sure what all the love with Cal is. I follow the program fairly closely and while they have lots of returning starters in skill positions and Wilcox has the program in the upswing, they will be outmatched physically by BYU is in LOS. I was not particularly impress with Cal's performance against a young NC with a few suspended players.

 
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Posted: #63
Updated card:

Week 2:
Maryland -14  (2u)
New Mexico / Wisconsin Over 55 (0.5u) & Over 55.5 (0.25u) and Over 54 (1u) -- (1.75u overall)
Mississippi State -3 *GOY line (1u) & -4 (0.5u) (1.5u overall)
Alabama -35  (1.5u)
Arkansas -8.5  (1.5u)
Wisconsin  -33 (1.25u)
Houston / Arizona Under 64 -105  (0.5u)  & Under 71 (0.5u) & Under 70.5 +100 (0.25u) -- (1.25u overall) 
Utah / Northern Illinois  Under 51.5  (1u)
Added:  Ball State +35 hook (0.75u)
Clemson -9.5 -140  (0.75u)
Hawaii -15.5  (0.75u)
California +3 hook (0.5u)  & +3 +100 (0.25u) -- (0.75u overall)
TCU -19  (0.5u)
Georgia Tech -2.5  (0.5u)
Arkansas / Colorado State Over 66.5  (0.5u)
Cincinnati / Miami (OH) Under 50  (0.5u)
Added:  UConn +31.5  (0.3u)
Texas -20 (0.25u)
Illinois -4 & -6
Tennessee -33.5 & -35
Boston College -41.5 & -41
Eastern Kentucky +29.5
Maine / Western Kentucky Under 52
Howard / Kent State Over 59.5
Nicholls State +21.5
Youngstown State +31 & +31.5
Southern Illinois +31

Week 2 College Extra:
Kennesaw State -14 hook
Delaware -23.5
Wofford -27
James Madison -36.5 & -38
Weber State / Cal POLY Under 46.5
Abilene Christian -3
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:

Not sure what all the love with Cal is. I follow the program fairly closely and while they have lots of returning starters in skill positions and Wilcox has the program in the upswing, they will be outmatched physically by BYU is in LOS. I was not particularly impress with Cal's performance against a young NC with a few suspended players.


Laroja, I can't see either team physically dominated the other at the LOS.  It's going to be a low scoring game, but I don't think BYU will be that dominant in the trenches.

More of a play against BYU than on Cal really.  I am not sold yet on BYU being that improved.  I think Arizona is a mess right now on offense and that was a fortunate situation for BYU to start the year against.  My preseason #s had Cal as a slight favorite.  After only 1 week and against the particular opponent in that 1 week, I think there is some value in Cal getting a field goal (or more at one point this week -- surprised by that).
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by GeauxO:

TD,

Thoughts on Missouri vs Wyoming Over/Under at 52? I got the over.

Thoughts on Hawaii vs Rice Over/Under at 70? It's close to me. I see it 45-28 type game. That puts it fairly close to 70. Is the value just not there this game?

Last question for you - Oklahoma St -32 vs South Alabama. I feel like OSU always blows these types of teams out by 40+. Thoughts? 

 

I'm looking to add 2-3 more picks. 


GeauxO,
     I've got nothing on the Wyoming / Missouri O/U.  A score of 34-17ish seems about right to me.  Wyoming is not going to score much on offense and is pretty solid on defense -- part of what drives the line being "only" 52.  I would stay away.

I think the Hawaii / Rice opening total Over play was probably the best option there.  I'm not playing this one either way at the current #s.

My raw #s would actual side with South Alabama at 32.  With Oklahoma State having Boise State on deck I would stay away.  Yes, Oklahoma State beat them by this many last year on the road, but with a new QB and losing the top two WRs, and USA not terrible on defense, it wouldn't shock me to see USA barely cover. 

New staff at USA, tough to know what to expect from them.  Their offense in week 1 was able to run the ball better than I expected.  And threw worse than expected.  And their defense was about what I would expect vs. La Tech.
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by UGA520:

TD happy to see ya ma' man. BOL this week bud.  Thanks for all you do, and I immediately say "This guy knows what he's talkin about!"  Just sayin man.  an_cheers


Thanks UGA520,
    Good to see you on here again this year!  And good luck this week!

Think your Dawgs will take care of business this week?  I'm not touching it myself.

 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by ticojoe:

I too had some asswipe talk garbage about lines on my Week 1 post, no need to waste your time justifying anything.....I try to bang offshore account early soon as lines come out.....then by Thursday will post my final picks here using the current lines in Las Vegas. 

GL this week...I too have Hawaii at -17.....like your number better but I think will both cover.


ticojoe, thanks for speaking up on this one.  I was a little caught off guard since I've talked CFB with UNIMAN before over the years.  He's really a decent guy and I have no issue with him.  If it were some troll I probably would not have responded at all.

.......

ticojoe, I've been meaning to stop by your thread more often.  
You do great work!    Very nice to be able to compare plays with someone with a like-minded approach.  .... I'm leaning Fresno, thought I saw you were on FSU.

Best of luck to you this week and this season!

TD
 
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Posted: #68
Why Clemson. They are not even going to win the game.
 
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Posted: #69

Hey Madison, go and do what you best get on your knees, as you are nothing but a mentally challenged ignorant fool, and that is putting it mildly. It is very obvious from your postings you know absolutely nothing about football moreless about wagering.

SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #70

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #71

Added:  Ball State / Notre Dame Under 62.5 -105  (0.5u)

 
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Posted: #72

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Week 2 Betonline Openers locked in:*with one GOY exception listed below - previously posted in my other thread.**and I only cussed out loud for two wagers when I didn't get my wager to go through because of a line change, and then another line change immediately after.  Week 2:Maryland -14  (2u)Mississippi State -3 *GOY line (1u) & -4 (0.5u) added today -- (1.5u overall)Alabama -35  (1.5u)Arkansas -8.5  (1.5u)Wisconsin  -33 (1.25u)Hawaii -15.5  (0.75u)TCU -19  (0.5u)

 

Where'd you find Arkansas at -8.5?

 

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds/line-history/974858

 
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Posted: #73

Think your Dawgs will take care of business this week?  I'm not touching it myself.[/Quote]

 

I'm finally out of the Mark Richt era capping trauma, but I don't think Vegas is yet.  Yes I will be on my Dawgs this week.  I know Bentley is solid and Gamecocks have Samuel  but it isn't going to be enough. Also, James Cooks first half susp will be a blessing as Swift and Holyfield will take care of the first half and Cook in the second half with fresh legs.  Too much for the gamecocks who went a overachieving 9-4 last year.   I say the Dawgs tune them up and put them back to reality to the score of 38-23. 

Good luck TD

 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by CardHog:

 

Where'd you find Arkansas at -8.5?

 

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds/line-history/974858


Where?  ..... Betonline - as stated in the post you quoted.

.....based on the link you provided, are you kinda trying to ask When?  The answer is before 3:55pm.  Make sense!?
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by UGA520:

 

I'm finally out of the Mark Richt era capping trauma, but I don't think Vegas is yet.  Yes I will be on my Dawgs this week.  I know Bentley is solid and Gamecocks have Samuel  but it isn't going to be enough. Also, James Cooks first half susp will be a blessing as Swift and Holyfield will take care of the first half and Cook in the second half with fresh legs.  Too much for the gamecocks who went a overachieving 9-4 last year.   I say the Dawgs tune them up and put them back to reality to the score of 38-23. 

Good luck TD


Thanks UGA520,

I would like to see Georgia do well this season.  I took them at +300 to win the SEC so that I can at a minimum have a chance to hedge in the SEC title game.  Or ride it out.  Just need to get there first.  

Good to hear from you UGA.  Hope you do well this weekend!  
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