TD Week 4

Ok, FIU at Rice.  My initial big picture take on Sunday was that Rice has been solid ATS under Bailiff as a short home favorite.  Also, decent in conference play ATS.  FIU impression was 0-2 ATS, worse team than I projected, barely beat a SWAC opponent, and maybe not getting what new HC Davis and staff are teaching them /  (me) questioning if it will be a longer rebuilding process than I expected from offseason PR # review.

 I took another look this morning.  Still feel the same about Rice.  I know everyone wants to ask if I knew about Glaesmann being questionable.  Absolutely, listed it myself on Sunday.  Then proceeded to make the play that same day.  I think the separation between Glaesmann and Tyner is not that much.  Every injury situation is a case by case review.  The discrepancy between one team’s 1^st and 2^nd team QB is not always the same as the discrepancy between the next team’s 1^st and 2^nd string QBs.  From what I understand, the competition was close.  And another reason I did not hold back is that I know Bailiff and Lynch are not going to ask either QB to win the game for them.  This is a run first team with a very experienced O-line.  If they’re going to win and cover, it’s because of the O-line’s performance and hopefully not the QB performance (i.e., limit turnovers, manage the game, make just a few plays through the air – all of these needed from either starting QB).  Glaesmann and Tyner similar #s vs. UTEP in 2016 & 2017 games, respectively.  It’s interesting that people are quick to jump on the injury concerns (readily available at donbest ) but nobody mentions (probably forget / not aware of at all) that the passing game is really missing 2016’s leading receiver Alaka that would have been back, but elected to transfer out.  Injuries absolutely need to be evaluated when capping.  It’s just a difficult thing to do sometimes; figuring out the true impact of any one player being out.  I am actually more concerned this week about the defensive injuries for Rice than the two skill players on offense.

FIU on the other hand, I may have been quick to judge, time will tell.  They are a very experienced team.  I was completely on board the fade FIU train at Indiana since they were supposedly considering going straight from Birmingham, AL (where the Alcorn State game was played) to Indiana since the hurricane had not passed yet in Florida.  Possibly jumped the gun on how I should feel this week about FIU with those same thoughts in my head about being away from home, not getting into a routine, etc.  They still have not played a true home game and it’s week 4, but now rested with the IU game canceled and have at least been home to sleep in their own bed, that is less of a factor.  Matchup wise:  FIU’s pass D is the weakness on that side of the ball.  The front 7 held up quite well in fact vs. UCF and Alcorn rushing attacks.  So, (relative) strength vs. strength when Rice has the ball.  When FIU has the ball, despite putting up only 17 points in each of their first two games, their passing game may be a real problem for a still bad Rice secondary (so, strength vs. weakness here – we’ll see).  The Rice offense needs to play ball control and keep the FIU offense off the field.  Biggest key to the game right there in my opinion.  Some of you had the same sentiments about backing off of Rice, just not for the same reasons.  For me, the QB and RB injuries are down the list some as to reasons to worry about this play.  In hindsight, I wouldn’t mind if this play was in the 0.5 – 0.75 unit range instead of the 1.5u that I locked in.  But, here we are.  Got to ride it out.  If I talk myself into it (*will probably just let it ride), could see if a line move or a 2^nd half play (in a close game at halftime) is available.  I’m 0-1 so far on the just let it ride situations (*mentioned previously that my GOY line for Ole Miss -3.5 at Cal was locked in before Hugh Freeze was fired).  Thought about reducing it last week.  Never did.  Hopefully things will balance out this week in the ‘just let it ride’ department.  Anyway, all that said, from a capping perspective, I just wanted to point out a few things about how I look at this (or any game for that matter) vs. some of the other immediate reactions on the forum.  People can arrive at the same conclusion on one game/play, but it’s the WHY part / evaluation/capping process that becomes important over a longer period of time.  I don’t think my (primary) reasons to consider backing off on this one are the same reasons that some others arrived at for their reasons to do the same thing.