WEEK 1 GAMES / LINES....

Lines based mostly on last years power ratings....with minor adjustments here and there....esp with FCS teams of course
  *they typically don't change that much for (most) teams anyway really....
  **NOTE: it's just a (very rough) starting point only....done just for the helll of it.....so don't sweat it if some seem a little off...


Saturday, August 23rd

Sam Houston  at E Washington -10     2:30 p.m. ESPN
  *SH - 6/3 st back from 9-5...new HC AND QB
  *EW - 6/5 back from 12-3...QB nation's best player
  *LY EW was about 5-7 pts better...EW about the same / Sam worse
     note: EW's red turf nice HF adv ....
              $$$$ line is way off at 5 Dimes...P or so
    


Wednesday, August 27th

Abilene Christian at Ga State  -5      6:00  ESPNU
  *ACC - 3/7 back from 6-5
  *GSU - 5/4 back from 0-12
    


Thursday, August 28th

Texas A&M at S Caro -10         5:00 p.m. SECN
Wake Forest -2' at ULM             6:00 p.m. ESPNU
Idaho State at Utah -42              6:30 p.m.  PAC-12
Boise vs. Ole Miss -8'                 7:00 p.m. ESPN
Temple at Vandy -18                   8:15 p.m.    SECN
Rutgers at Wash St -10                9:00 p.m.  FS1
Weber State at Ariz St -48           9:30 p.m.    PAC-12
E Ill at Minnesota -12  BTN
Tulane at Tulsa -3   
Cal Poly -2 at N Mex St              7:00 p.m.   
Chatt at C Michigan  -6
EKentucky -12 at Robt Morris     6:00 p.m.    NEC Front Row video
Howard at Akron    -25               6:00 p.m.   
Presby at NIll -30   
NDakota at SJSU -24                 9:00 p.m.   


Friday, August 29th

BYU -12' at UConn                      6:00 p.m.  ESPN
Villa at Syracuse -15                   6:30 p.m.  3
BGreen -4  at WKU                    7:00 p.m. CBSSN
Col   vs. ColSt  P (Denver)           8:00 p.m.    FS1
UTSA at Hou -17                         8:00 p.m.    ESPNU
UNLV at Arizona    -25                 9:30 p.m.    ESPN
Jax St at Mich State -33                BTN





      



           

Bookie you are easily one of the top 3 guys on this board. I always look for your week picks and line guesses. I appreciate all you do bro. Good luck this season!!

Saturday, August 30th

Penn St  vs. UCF  P                             7:30 a.m.    ESPN2
Navy vs. Ohio St -18  (Baltimore)          11:00 a.m.    CBSSN
NDakota St  at Iowa St P                      11:00 a.m.    FS1
Tenn Martin at Kentucky  -22                11:00 a.m  SECN
UCLA -20 at Virg                                 11:00 a.m.  ESPN
Ga South at NC State  -14                    11:30 a.m.  ESPN-GP / espn3 / ACC Network

Wofford at GaTech  -35                     11:30 a.m.    FSN Affiliates / RSN / espn3

Alabama -25 vs. WVirg (Atlanta)          2:30 p.m. ABC / ESPN2
Cal at NW  -13'                                  2:30 p.m.  TBA,
Rice at Notre Dame -18'                     2:30 p.m. NBC
SDakota St at Missouri -30                 2:30 p.m.    ESPNU
Ark  at Auburn -21                             3:00 p.m.    SECN
Ptl State at Oreg St  -33                  3:00 p.m.    PAC-12 Network
UC Davis at TREE -38                    3:00 p.m.  PAC-12
Clem at Georgia -3                         4:30 p.m.    ESPN
CArk at Tex Tech  -35                      6:00 p.m.  FSN
Idaho at Florida -33                         6:00 p.m.    ESPNU
La Tech at Oklahoma -27                 6:00 p.m.  PPV
Fresno  at USC  -14                       6:30 p.m.  FOX
SMiss at Miss St  -35                      6:30 p.m.  SECN
Fla State -13' vs. Okie St (Arlington)    7:00 p.m.  ABC
North Texas at Texas -21                  7:00 p.m.  LHN
Samford at TCU    -30                    7:00 p.m.    FSN
Wash -20' at Hawaii                        7:00 p.m.    CBSSN
LSU -3 vs. Wisconsin (Houston)        8:00 p.m  ESPN
SDak St at Oregon  -50                    9:30 p.m.  PAC-12 Network
AppState at Michigan  -25    
Ark Pine Bluff at TexSt  -28    
Austin Peay at Memphis    -30
BethCookman at FIU  P    
Boston College -24  at UMass    
Colgate at Ball State -25    
Delaware at Pitt -21                         11:00 a.m. espn3
Duquesne at Buffalo  -22    
Elon at Duke -35                               5:00 p.m  espn3
FAU at Nebraska -24    
Hampton at Old Dominion    -20
Indiana State at Indiana -28    
James Madison at Maryland -25    
Liberty at N Caro -30                        5:00 p.m.  espn3
Marshall -22 at Miami Ohio    
Montana at Wyoming  -6    
Montana State at Ark State  -13'
Morgan State at E Mich -8                     5:00 p.m.    
New Hampshire at Toledo    -13'
NC Central at East Caro -35    
Nicholls State at Air Force -15    
N Ariz at San Diego State  -14    
N Iowa at Iowa  -17'    
Ohio at Kent State P    
Sav St at Middle Tennessee -40    
Southern at ULL    -35
S Utah at Nevada  -21
SFA at Kansas State  -40                        6:00 p.m.    
Troy -8' at UAB                                      11:00 a.m.  FCS
UTEP at New Mexico -7
W Mich at Purdue  -12    
Bill & Mary at Va Tech  -18                        2:30 p.m.    espn3
Young St at Illinois  -10    

Sunday, August 31st

Prairie View -7 vs. Texas South                  4:00 p.m.    
Utah St at Tenn -2'                                    6:00 p.m.    SECN
SMU at Baylor -28                                    6:30 p.m.    FS1
Ala A&M vs. North Caro A&T  -20               ESPN Network


Monday, September 1st

Miami at Louisville -2                                     7:00 p.m.  ESPN

forgot.....times are all Central
  *from   https://lsufootball.net/tvschedule.htm

as always....numbers are what the line 'should be'....
    *rather than what I think it will be

And the answer to your question.....
     *sure some are way off 5Dimes numbers....they don't know WTF they're doing (setting lines that is)...BetOnline is actually much worse.......
  *that's why you often see 5Dimes waiting for someone else to come up with lines they can copy....like BOOKMAKER

BA,    Well Done

Golden Nugget hangs their GOY lines next Friday.

That might give me a chance to make a few  " investments "



Thanks for your effort.

Bookie would you mind telling me how you go about setting your lines?

2 lines that look WAY off........(down on both)

E Washington is now a 1' pt HOME DOG to Sam Houston....
  *guess some idiot(s) is throwing cash at SH
 
E Illinois is still a 33' pt dog at Minny.....
  *EI - 7/7 back from 12-2 (#4 FCS)...but new HC and QB...4 AA and 9 all-conf players are back...including great RB Little (1500+) and 3/5 OL ..former .Kentucky QB Whitlow probably the starter (15 starts at Kentucky)...if he isn't ready probably
   Andrew Manley is the guy (started at New Mex St / not bad)
  *MInny - only 4/6 or so back
  *if played at end of 2013...line maybe Minny -4 or so.
   now Minny about the same it appears...EIU maybe 7 pts worse max? (week 1)....5Dimes seems to be at least 15-20 pts off here
    

Az st will be closer to 70 lol. Dead serious, but most of ur fcs lines are very good

Great info BA!

BOL this year bookie.  I'm gonna be buying meals at Ruth's Chris this season 

Thanks for all the info.

12 weeks away  

nice work bookie!  

I will be playing only 2 teams per week this season.   I will appreciate your perspectives on my picks.  

only 2.5 months until the 1st kick  off...

 

Assassin, many thanks for sharing such info.  It's people like you who make Covers such a great source of info.  K

I know what you're thinking here SA......
  *and you may be right
week 1 look for a strong / dominant O that CANNOT be stopped....regardless of the number
  * a (in general) solid plan....last few years just OK

At 5Dimes ...UCLA is -24'
  *which suggests...UCLA is maybe 2-4 pts better this year / Virginia is about the same
  I'm a little light here maybe...I thought Virg might be 2-3 pts better....UCLA maybe also 2-3 pts better
  But there doesn't seem to be much to suggest that the Cavs will be improved....I thought their D might have something (9 starters back / Jon Tenuta DC)....but without digging further...looks like the Bruins could murder these boys you bet...
 $  I would think this opens 21-22....money on Cavs will be tough to find....and then will close 24+....bet the Bruins as early as possible  

5Dimes has Auburn -23...which is reasonable too
  *suggesting Auburn is about the same...Ark slightly better
I think Auburn will come back to earth (some)...but I could be wrong.....as their INCREDIBLE improvement defies all logic / numbers....
***** about a 30 point improvement from the beginning of 2012 to the end of 2013.....an oddsmakers nightmare.....as 10 points is a lot and fairly rare *****

this one is tough....I would guess opening at 21 or so and climbing
value might be < 21....if it opens high (24+)....it might drop  
at this point I don't see how the Hogs stop them at all...DC's can't seem to figure out Malzahn's O.......
  an issue here might be the Ark O tho....they might be able to run / control the clock some.........

5dimes have soft lines ^

sure.........CHEAT
  *sometimes.....creating and MAINTAINING PR numbers is a massive time commitment

I do have my own  'running' numbers I use
  *starting from scratch....then fine tuning slightly using Vegas / others numbers
  *once you establish a really solid PR number you can just adjust year to year.....as it stays about the same for (MOST) teams
  *this is how you find value.....as the wild-a-s-s public overreacts to a huge win or loss....while only YOU know what the number should really be....................................usually,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

there are a few PR numbers made public....that you can use for FCS teams especially.....I don't do those myself 

such as........

Sagarin.....pretty good FCS numbers...FBS often off
https://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

not bad at all....go to 'predictions'.....plug in ANY team (like Abilene Christian / Ga St).... and it will give you a number....useful for totals too.....sometimes......
www.masseyratings.com

all 500+ college teams WTF....
https://www.sports-ratings.com/college_football/power-rating-all-divisions.html

Don Best / sporting news....pretty good usually
https://linemakers.sportingnews.com/power-ratings?rating-sport=ncaaf

the Gold Sheet is maybe the closest to Vegas lines...available only thru purchasing weekly newsletter....great deal at $8 or so?
  * I get every 2-3 weeks because it's available online Monday nite at 10:00p E.....research is top notch / picks usually ignore....
https://www.goldsheet.com/gs_new/index.php

BOL this year TH............

thanks boys all the best..............

81 days...1 hour....23 minutes

tiasman you're gonna get fat eating those butter steaks....
   

I didn't realize 5Dimes had posted lines on those two games... I thought the lines would open lower, personally.  Seems like most people think Auburn was a fluke and that their "one-dimensional" offense will be stopped this year.  Auburn will not have any trouble with Arkansas, but I would have liked it better under 21.  Hopefully the lines will open lower, like you said.

Tias,  Welcome Back. Glad to see you moving up to Steaks . 

Has anyone taken the EW +3 against SHSU?

ME....and E Illinois

*that one looks too easy.....

Lessee here....Sam with a new HC...new QB....6/3 starters is about 7 pts better than EW?....arguably the #1 team with the #1 player in FCS
  *I'm gonna bet it until 5Dimes cuts me off

\writeup to follow....both teams have their 2014 previews up

120 to win 100? Are they letting u re-bet it?

they have in the past.... ($100 limit?)
  *but no doubt if you bet 1K or so and won....you might have to talk with Tony and get a lecture on how you cheated him..........
  *the 5Dimes way is to allow the bet and hope you lose....then accuse you of a 'rules violation' and (try) to not pay if you win.....my experience and a few others...................sometimes

I HATE that -120 juice..... and it's early so I'll just make a few $50-100 bets and see what happens