WEEK 1 GAMES / LINES....

Wise - I understand maybe how they performed last year, but I am have been watching Houston for 25 years (from the Houston area originally).  One thing they are not known for is D.   Maybe under Levine that is changing.   If that is the case, then my concerns about UTSA are not warranted.    There is no doubt Houston's skill position players on O will light it up, but there are concerns about Houston's O Line.     I know you are bullish on Houston...or were a month ago.  What's your perspective now?

Wise and BA - do you think UTSA's power ranking on Steele is skewed up due to their comp in CUSA.     I think Houston is a legit top 30 team.   How much will losing their top QB and top D player impact UTSA against Houston.   How much weight should I put on Houston opening their renovated stadium?

LH, you may have been watching them for 25 years.
       I have been wagering for that long. I'm not going
       to debate it with you . Once again I was offering
       my opinion.. Feel free to disregard it.

Wise - so you think the Houston D is legit, if I understand you correctly? 

I am vetting Houston right now.    I do appreciate your perspective.    I am trying evaluate their value proposition prima facie.   

3rd	07:22	UH	Leone, Richie 25 yd field goal
			7 plays, 50 yards, TOP 2:35	24 - 21

With 7:22 left in the 3rd quarter, Houston only led by 3 points 24 to 21.   They ended up outscoring UTSA 35 to 7 for the duration.  Some points came on turnovers.     The spread was only Houston -2.      I am trying to vet all angles so I don't miss something if I decide to go with Houston -13

Last year, In conference, IMO , they were # 2 ( tied with
UCF ) with L'ville being # 1. I use 6 Def. metrics and
schedule adjust to determine overall rank. I did not run
the calc. out that's why said 30 or so. Houston's D
should be up to the task. My concern is O Korn's ability
as to decision making, as he can be inconsistent at
times.It was a bargain at - 9 1/2 . Under 2 TD's still looks
good.

Thanks! 

If you are uncomfortable with UH , in this spot, then pass
on the play and look for other opportunities , I liked the
play under 10, but I mentioned to you in my PM that this
game does not fit my parameters for a straight wager
due to lack of value, therefore I personally would not
make a straight wager on this game. My parameters
for value are much more stringent than most would
accept , as I equate value ( or lack of it ) with assumed
risk . That's my edge, the greater the value , the less
risk I'm forced to assume. I think you'll find other plays
with more value when lines come out this month.

Wise - not really uncomfortable.   On first glance, I think this will be a massive blowout.    I am trying to incorporate what you have been trying to teach me.    Have a healthy degree of skepticism, think about angles that the average Joe does not think about from a capping perspective.     Houston has demonstrated a high degree of variability week to week.  That's not good in capping.     Predictive value is optimal as you know.   I believe that I am comfortable with X<14 for now, but I will continue to search for information.  Thanks again!  

I do not recommend that you use P. Steele's power
ratings to determine value as I do not believe they are
an accurate measure of pointspread differential.

LH, I believe that in the next two weeks, we'll see lines up
here . Perform your due diligence now but don't lock up
an opinion until the lines come out.
Too many fall in love with a matchup, and wind up buying
it at a bad number. Don't make that mistake, you'll save a
lot of money if you wait and possibly pass on a bad
position.

Sorry, I missed this one. IMO, it's worth no more than
what you use for your normal home field advantage.

LH, I agree with this approach as I review a matchup , I
have a list of items specific to the teams involved , and
as I review them I will begin the process as a skeptic and
as I score that list , I let the result determine whether I
proceed further. When I finish my review, if one team
does not have a clear cut advantage in a matchup , I will
pass on it and move to the next one. Usually I will find
about 10 games I break down even further to determine
value .

FSU will be up on Okla st by 4 touchdowns at halftime.The Qb and the #1 receiver is back for the highest scoring offense in CFB history.Normally, I would like Okla St, but they just lost too much.We all have our own opinions.I like Gundy ..I wouldn't put too much into that OU hat ordeal.We all have bad days.I've ran a guy out at the job site because his question was so stupid I was afraid he would mess things up.Gundy is a bright, young coach with a great personality like Swinney at Clemson.

STEELE -  maybe use his stuff as an INFO source only

  *IGNORE....his interpretations....use your own...from his solid mostly mistake free research....

  Why?....because he's really no longer a handicapper that critically evaluates these teams...too many times a cheerleader
   *how many times have you read a team's preview and you think....man they're gonna be pretty good!!!.....me too
  *selling magazines is his top priority = objectivity suffers

   $$$    he doesn't give out 'his' power ratings...those plus / minus are just raw computer generated numbers.....> don't use these.....unless you spent a ton of time somehow projecting values maybe using his power poll (his actual PR's but no values wtf) ...otherwise the plus/minus numbers are worthless IMO

HOU / UTSA....
  *tempting at <10....but at 13ish maybe better to pass....especially for me until I figure out UTSA.....who BTW played the Cougs DEAD EVEN (stat wise) last year as a 2 pt home dog.....5 TO's the story...
  *Houston D the real deal...?
   1)  what decent / tough offenses did they play?
   2)  what happened?

vs BYU - 681 TO....264 rush (3.7 not bad) / 417 passing not good
at Louisville - 332 TO...129 rush (3.2)....203 passing (19-29)
at UCF- 398 TO...188 rush (4.2)..210 passing (17-24-210)
Cinn-   573 TO...172 rush (4.3)...401 passing (30-51)
  note:  played a fairly anemic bunch of O's
  *check of stats....#34 TD.....#19 rush D....#24 3rd.....#1 INT.....#1 in forcing TO's.............huge improvement from 2012
  *also.....checking FEI awesome efficiency ratings....
      #43 ST...and #10 in use of field position (#96 and 105 in  2012)
        (note :  UTSA #106 and 110 resp)

BUT....check out the Roadrunners in their 3rd year of existence
  *played Okie St tough....O had 31 FD/504 TO....shut down OSU run game...respectable at Zona and Marshall....dominated NTexas there ....outgained Rice....beat the crap outta La Tech and at Tulsa

Looks like Houston (might) roll here ....but UTSA looks dangerous
  *I would think with the (probable) large QB edge for the Cougs... UTSA has a hard time hanging for 4 quarters here.......



I gotcha both beat.......I was on the Coug sidelines for Houston's 100-6 win over Tulsa in 1968 ....Dr Phil at MLB for Tulsa was the story.....he says so anyway....
  *Wade Phillips and Larry Gatlin played for Houston it seems...that Astrodome was SO cool back then ....story actually was entire Tulsa team had the flu 
 

BA,     Teams like Houston, and Hawai'i in the
           June Jones era scare the daylights out of me.
           as they have a philosophy that:
          " I don't need to play defense cause I'm gonna
            out score ya." scares the heck out of me as a
            bettor , so I just play the total and ignore the side.
            That's like Sumlin at A&m as well except he's
            missing some offensive weapons this season.
            I tend to prefer teams that are capable of playing
            team defense to provide an offset rather than
            to rely on offense to solely carry the load. I believe
            that in conference , IMO , Houston's D will be OK.
            in previous years they have struggled in the
            metric of defensive efficiency. They are making
            strides in this area, and seem to be more
            physical as well.

BA  

LH, I analyze matchups from a " Head Coaching "
perspective as I believe that approach gives me the
opportunity to objectively view O/D matchups more
clearly. I never favor a team, but I do favor the relative
strength of teams one to another, in 10 areas that I
measure.Please review the early PM's I sent you this
season as if you follow that procedure , you will be able
see the relative strengths / weaknesses in a manner
that gives you the opportunity to reach an objective
decision an a matchup.

LH 

Ex UTSA QB Soza has become the new graduate assistant with Houston. He will be working with coaches and qb for UH. Could be an advantage for UH. 

Soza's QBR last year leaves a lot to be desired from a
performance perspective. I hope he doesn't coach up
Okorn too much.

LH, I believe that you have to compare data relative to a
team's opponent. In conference record /stats do not
reflect a teams capability vs a non conference opponent.
Something to consider.

I got cincy, ucf, and Houston rated very similarly. Houston was a double digit dog vs ucf last year. I don't disagree they're solid but a clear #1 in the American, I'm not giving that to them yet. They do have a habit of blowing out the teams they're clearly better than. I saw 10, now it's 13.5 at the moment 5dimes, that's a pass for me. Wouldn't shock me if certain models have the line MUCH lower, stimulating some UTSA $$. If you like Houston, wait. You can prob get a better number

 

BA,  Always appreciate your work and the numbers you provide for evaluation.  In the first posted you noted:

Lines based mostly on last years power ratings....with minor adjustments here and there....esp with FCS teams of course
  *they typically don't change that much for (most) teams anyway really....
  **NOTE: it's just a (very rough) starting point only....done just for the helll of it.....so don't sweat it if some seem a little off...

Having said that, do you see any recent adjustments to explain the Boston College -13 vs. UMass line released recently?  I'm locked in on BC -13.

.... A likely rebuilding year for BC, I still think the BC O-line vs. UMass D-line is the key mismatch that will determine the outcome here.  Despite a potentially much improved passing game for UMass; new transfer QB from Marshall (Cato's backup) could/should start.  Top WR returns, they add Penn State transfer (minimal PT at PSU) and new JC WR led spring game with 8 for 68 yrds.  I recognize that although experienced coming into '14, the BC secondary struggled in '13. Having said all this, a projected -24 line vs. an actual -13 opening line seems like a large discrepancy.  ...what am I missing, if anything?

It is a UMass "home" game but will be played in Foxboro, MA, therefore the line should not reflect a standard home field adjustment IMO.  ... Curious if you and others on Covers see this as a game decided by two TDs

[Quote: Originally Posted by TD21]

 

BA,  Always appreciate your work and the numbers you provide for evaluation.  In the first posted you noted:

Lines based mostly on last years power ratings....with minor adjustments here and there....esp with FCS teams of course
  *they typically don't change that much for (most) teams anyway really....
  **NOTE: it's just a (very rough) starting point only....done just for the helll of it.....so don't sweat it if some seem a little off...

Having said that, do you see any recent adjustments to explain the Boston College -13 vs. UMass line released recently?  I'm locked in on BC -13.

.... A likely rebuilding year for BC, I still think the BC O-line vs. UMass D-line is the key mismatch that will determine the outcome here.  Despite a potentially much improved passing game for UMass; new transfer QB from Marshall (Cato's backup) could/should start.  Top WR returns, they add Penn State transfer (minimal PT at PSU) and new JC WR led spring game with 8 for 68 yrds.  I recognize that although experienced coming into '14, the BC secondary struggled in '13. Having said all this, a projected -24 line vs. an actual -13 opening line seems like a large discrepancy.  ...what am I missing, if anything?

It is a UMass "home" game but will be played in Foxboro, MA, therefore the line should not reflect a standard home field adjustment IMO.  ... Curious if you and others on Covers see this as a game decided by two TDs

[/Quote

good eye man........

here's one of the few where numbers lie a bit...
  *line is adjusted down maybe due to bettors scared to death of betting BC as a large away favorite....plus Pitt on deck

at end of 2013 BC was maybe 25-27 points better ....
  *BC loses a 4 yr starter at QB....+ leading rusher and top WR in school history....only 3/6 st
  *UMASS?....bring back 7/6 st from one of nation's worst teams...and they still are

If we are generous and say UMass is about 2 pts better...BC maybe 5 pts worse...you still get a line around 20

And on 2nd and 3rd thought....I wouldn't play BC here either even at 13.....If you like UMass I might wait and see if it climbs above 14.....if not maybe just pass on this weird match-up.........

I would not fade Famous Jameis in any game unless vs a top team. Remember what he did to Clemson? I think it'll get ugly vs Ok st. 45-14