I'm gonna put ND as an 11 point fave to open. I adjust these as we get closer. Alot will depend on Crist's knee. Giving Kelly players like ND has is gonna be fun to watch. If crist can make the throws (and kelly's offense features alot of easy throws), the ND recievers will have a field day with Purdue's secondary that returns o starters.
All that being said, it scares me to put money on a team with a new coach.
Kelly is a little like Urban Meyer who has won right away every where he has coached. A new coach can bring energy to a program, and if they win early the team can ride that (Erickson at ASU, EG).
But a lot of times, it takes a new coach 4 years to get a program going.