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Week 1 picks with analysis........................................ba goes pro

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Posted: #76

Quote Originally Posted by somethnew:

BA is a wealth of information and as said before ALSO an entertaining read.  He wants to go to pay to play and you don't like it, shut up and don't pay.  sups simple guy.  I for one will look forward to anything he's willing to share on here for free and thank him for it.  I will miss his money line Dog wheels, had a lot of fun with those.

Could not have expressed it better myself. If you do not like his style or what he is doing, do us all a favor and stay away. It is very simple. thumbs_up

SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #77

Getting edgy in here... lol

 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

If he were still posting for free, then you would be correct. Best of luck this year.

Thank you for your kind words, but show me where to this point he has taken money from anyone??? new_grin


Now you’re just arguing to be argumentative. You are smart enough to know exactly what I was implying. Best of luck this year. 
 
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Posted: #79
I just saw my offer as well 

although only 100k cash per week   


Working for Covers is basically just getting paid for your years of hard work, you’re not being a “tout” the way you do your stuff, Covers is your home & you 100% should work for them if it helps you out 

I’ve adjusted my stance on this issue over the years, do what you gotta do my friend 

Nobody is more “expert” than you are 
.
 
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Posted: #80
BA I hope it works out for you . You have provided alot of input over the last few years.

The only thing interesting is if its a better deal going on your own or going to work for Covers. I've read where they're going to charge $1300 for the Legends picks. I wonder if this a new idea or if they have made deals to people who have gone tout in the past?
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

I just saw my offer as well 

although only 100k cash per week   


Working for Covers is basically just getting paid for your years of hard work, you’re not being a “tout” the way you do your stuff, Covers is your home & you 100% should work for them if it helps you out 

I’ve adjusted my stance on this issue over the years, do what you gotta do my friend 

Nobody is more “expert” than you are 

Podcast time?     
 
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Posted: #82

This really is the beginning of the end. When the Supremes shot down PASPA in May 2018, I told friends to "be careful what you ask for." 

BA, brother, I love and respect you and this is certainly your decision to make, for whatever reasons you make it. You don't owe any of the clowns on here an explanation.

These days, there is so much fresh money that has no idea how to bet sports, that there is value to Covers and others to increase their stable of "experts." 

Yet I caution ALL sports bettors about the future of betting sports. We all see the advanced analytics and the AWS stuff and we see our beloved Bill Connelly and his S&P+ ratings getting sucked up by the evil empire that is espn...and now they have the unmitigated audacity to make BC post S&P+ alongside their dubious FPI ratings. 

The VALUE of betting sports is being sucked out every single time we see a line of -115 or -120, and new sports bettors will think this is the way it has always been...and keep laying that awful juice. I, for one, have been able to beat -110. Beating -120 (or worse) will be very difficult - for everyone, including Bookie Assassin.

Congratulations brother, you have indeed earned it. I hope you are able to make the most of it.

I will leave you all with this thought: There is an old saying on Wall Street that you only buy stocks when there is blood in the street. Five years from now, I think we will be saying the same thing about betting sports. 

Cheers - I hope you all have an excellent season!

 
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Posted: #83
I think I'll have 1-2 more closer to KO....late line movement might open up a few....this one I had 31' available.....IMO a strong play to 35....maybe lesser as it climbs
  $ a 1.5 unit or better play at 32 or less


# 196 MICHIGAN -31'  v  #197  Middle Tennessee



BIG PICTURE

A great SPOT for Michigan to get their 2019 season of redemption started off the right way. What we have (my favorite spot) is a team primed and ready to deliver a beat-down...and one in Middle Tennessee who IMO won't mind too terribly taking one. The first question you always ask when laying this kind of chalk is: will the dog have the FULL FOCUS of the favorite? The answer is a big hell yes. Wolverines off a terrible finish,to a once promising season...with only Army on deck then a bye before a road trip to Wisky. MT loses 21 seniors (2nd most in nation starting wise) from a much better team...with only FCS Tennessee St on deck, then Duke (both at home). A bye follows then a road trip to Iowa followed by 4 huge CUSA games. So my guess is they don't put up much of a fight here, exposing key guys to injury. Michigan has shown no mercy in similar spots previously, needs to get new offense reps and confidence, and should beat the hell outta MT.

 

MIDDLE TENNESSEE
* RP 122 (O-110/D-101)

A NIGHTMARISH match-up for the MT offense. In fact when I first saw this one, I got a fair belly laugh followed by an "uh-oh"! A very small, not very athletic bunch that can't really run (3.7/rush LY)...or protect (#103 sacks / #106 stuff rate). From this 2018 group they lose a 4 yr starting QB / leading passer in school history, and 121 starts from that shaky OL. Their O is built around a quick precision passing attack...well suited to former QB Stockstill's (coaches son) skills. Probably the eventual QB will be JUCO Randall Johnson (athletic / 6-5-235). For our purposes here hopefully we will see LY's backup Asher O'Hara (6-0-190 / can run but poor passer). I would expect they 'feed' poor Asher to the lions here, and work Johnson in weeks 2 or 3. The goal you would think would be to have him ready by October 5th vs Marshall. Johnson with no snaps in a FBS game anyway, so even if he's the guy it shouldn't matter much. Their D is very small as well, and weak vs the run (4.3). They are disruptive (#36 havoc rate), and can bring heat (#47 stuff / #60 sacks). 14th year HC Stockstill has 2 fine coordinators in OC Tony Franklin, and DC Scott Shafer.

MT has had (some) success as a dog (SU wins vs GTech/ Cuse / Mizzou)..but typically is much better as a favorite (10-4 ATS run), than as a dog (7-10/ 4-8 if road). What I like also, is week 1 Stockstill seems to use more as a 'scrimmage'. Last 3 years Vandy has held this spot and has dominated MT (47-24..28-6..35-7),covering by 64 points. NOTE: he usually shows no mercy vs FCS (see week 2) and is tough off a loss (covered 11/15).



The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #84

MICHIGAN
* RP 68 (O-30 / D-106)

The big news here is the switch to a no huddle / up tempo attack with new OC Josh Gattis (Vandy > Penn St > Bama). This suits QB Patterson's skill set much better, and IF Harbaugh fully embraces the change could be a big improvement. Even if he is reluctant, it should not make much difference here, as their offense has had no issues vs this type of D. I really like it that their O will need REPS (very slow LY - a play every 30 sec / 9th slowest in nation)...plus their new guys on D need reps as well. I LOVE even more that their D totally collapsed LY, their last 2 games giving up 70 points/994 yds!). So there is NO DOUBT that DC Brown will want to make a statement here. ARGUABLE you bet...but IMO the young guys on D will perform (in THIS spot) much better than the NFL bound DIVA's would have anyway.... The KEY to having success vs the Mich D?...the ability to RUN THE BALL, beat man coverage. MT can do NEITHER. This enables Michigan / Don Brown to bring heat and totally DISRUPT what you are trying to do offensively. Look for a BUNCH of 3 'n outs for the MT offense = many more scoring opps for Mich O.



STRATEGY

BET AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. I don't see this one EVER going down. 'Sharps' will no probably see VALUE at 35+, so last minute we might see a reduction, but not lower than what we see currently. In-game players note: MT DC Shafer (former Cuse HC) is pretty sharp and might cause problems early, if so a 2H play on Michigan could be awesome. No way in hell MT competes for 4Q here. Look for a 45-3 / 51-7 type game.

BOTTOM LINE: MT will not have the HEART for this fight (vs 107K fans as well)...and should get destroyed.


BOL boys...............................

 

RP - returning production (by Bill C) a better measure than simply looking at returning starters 
S&P - Bill C again...a SOS / gargae time adjusted (SUPERIOR) way at looking at things
Havoc - the ability to get penetration (or prevent on O)....Bill C again

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #85
FYI for week 2...

Army will likely blow out Rice

Michigan will likely blow out MTSU

based on that you will get a line for Michigan/Army

Keep in mind that Michigan plays Wisconsin week 3

 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

I just saw my offer as well 

although only 100k cash per week   


Working for Covers is basically just getting paid for your years of hard work, you’re not being a “tout” the way you do your stuff, Covers is your home & you 100% should work for them if it helps you out 

I’ve adjusted my stance on this issue over the years, do what you gotta do my friend 

Nobody is more “expert” than you are 

Love to buy you a beer or two someday Wahoo.....   
  * thanks for the kind words as always

RICO-  I've already sent you a ton of cash man please stop it already!......................
  * PM me with any questions/ whatever....TY I'll try and answer wtf


Sorry to those who have sent me PM's in the past with no response.....Uncle Puff +++.......I usually have a few knuckleheads carpet bombing me with questions...so I've been 'forced' to just blow the whole damm thing off........................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by Ifan_Bates:

FYI for week 2...

Army will likely blow out Rice

Michigan will likely blow out MTSU

based on that you will get a line for Michigan/Army

Keep in mind that Michigan plays Wisconsin week 3


LOVE the BIG PICTURE.......down the line thinking....
  * but I would think that Army / Rice game is closer than most think

Mich / Wisky a tough read.......Wisky (might) be a team to watch...and is 5-0 ATS at home v Mich.....likely off 2 blow-out W's

ARMY?......ALWAYS a team to consider as huge dog......
  why?....run / bleed clock....LIMIT possessions of the favored team....AND.....who TF really wants to beat up these guys who will be putting their LIVES on the line (in a few years) ?????

So.....Mich / Army might be a no-play......agree Army should be considered....Mich just might be a 'team of destiny' tho....and SHOULD KILL any team that can't throw......

>>  I don't think I'll lay the points here ......after a beatdown or two....with big games on deck esp....they have slacked off some (see SMU 2018)


The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


.who TF really wants to beat up these guys who will be putting their LIVES on the line (in a few years) ?????




I just died 

But sound logic, thanks ! 
 
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Posted: #89
Wow that escalated quickly 

I guess i missed the main topic where B.A. is going pro.... but if there are any posters on here worthy of such an honor, B.A. is DEFINITELY one of them. Haterz gonna hate and Ballerz gonna Ball PERIOD. Do your thing BA. Still one of my favorite reads and thats what its all about in my book.
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by Ifan_Bates:


I just died 

But sound logic, thanks ! 

HA.....think about it man.....do you REALLY....in these PC days especially.... want to RUN IT UP...vs these guys?.....Army / Navy / AF 

KEY;  it's a factor....you won't see in pointspread
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


HA.....think about it man.....do you REALLY....in these PC days especially.... want to RUN IT UP...vs these guys?.....Army / Navy / AF 

KEY;  it's a factor....you won't see in pointspread

I mean I cannot go against your logic without looking at how these teams have faired in the past against top 25 teams
 
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Posted: #92
wise investment strategy?.......laying 20+ to service academy

those 3 teams......you would have LOST 22 of last 26 bets...give or take

Army  4-1
Navy 11-2
AF      7-1 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #93
That brings up, what each of us considers "running it up" 

Lots of different equations from what I have seen,,,

Some coaches (Saban) will not run it up

Other coaches (coaches who's teams need to look good for a committee) will

But at what point does a coaches thinking allow him to change something in the game, to or not to run it up?

I still cannot imagine a team like Michigan overlooking a team like Army because of that, or maybe I am wrong, my initial thinking was they want to be ready for Wisconsin

 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by GENERALWIZDOM:

Wow that escalated quickly 

I guess i missed the main topic where B.A. is going pro.... but if there are any posters on here worthy of such an honor, B.A. is DEFINITELY one of them. Haterz gonna hate and Ballerz gonna Ball PERIOD. Do your thing BA. Still one of my favorite reads and thats what its all about in my book.

good man GW thanks................

yep waited a bit too long on this one to post....didn't think we would see much movement for a few weeks.....unfortunately Steele and others have mentioned this one recently.....anything under 35 should be a winner IMO....margin for error increases exponentially as line goes up you bet.....>>  pick 6...KOR / PR.....heavy rain....wind +++  

THIS is why you (should) have more than ONE spot to bet too...

IDEALLY :     

* local with occasional week lines

* off-shore with multiple options.....early/shaky lines (ie 5D / BetOnline)  etc) 

* SOLID off-shore.....eg. Pinny....Bookmaker....Heritage....BetCris
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by Ifan_Bates:


I mean I cannot go against your logic without looking at how these teams have faired in the past against top 25 teams

You boys will have to forgive me for using my own post season #s here (intended to reflect "true" point spread based on actual data), but I suspect the closing lines at game time result in a similar finding..... service academies that control the clock cover ATS at a high rate vs. top tier opponents.

2018 (using standard 2.8 point for HF):

Air Force:
at #21 Utah State +19.3  -- result: lost 42-32, but covered ATS by 9.3.

vs. #28 Boise State +11.0 -- result:  lost 48-38, but covered by 1.0.

at #48 Army +11.7 -- result:  lost 17-14, but covered by 8.7.

3-0 ATS with average ATS margin = 6.4 ppg.

Army:
at #40 Duke +4.1 -- result: lost 34-14.  ATS margin: -15.9

at #4 Oklahoma +19.6 -- result: lost 28-21.  ATS margin:  +12.6

1-1 ATS

Navy:
vs. #6 Notre Dame +27.3 (neutral site) -- result: Lost 44-22.  ATS margin +5.3.

at #20 Central Florida +23.5 -- result:  Lost 35-24.  ATS margin: +12.5.

2-0 ATS with average margin +8.9

2017 (using standard 2.8 point for HF):

Air Force:
at #23 Michigan +20.3 -- result:  Lost 29-13.  ATS margin: +4.3

Army:
at #6 Ohio State +28.7 -- result:  Lost 38-7.  ATS margin:  -2.4.

*Army was 3-0 ATS vs. #51 - #60 range (average ATS margin: +6.4 ppg).

Navy:
at #36 Florida Atlantic +9.7 -- result:  Won 42 - 19.  ATS margin: +32.7.  *Week 1 - FAU much improved later in the season.

at #27 Memphis +12.6 -- result:  Lost 30 - 27.  ATS margin:  +9.6

vs. Central Florida +11.8  -- result:  Lost 21 - 31.  ATS margin:  +1.8.

at #9 Notre Dame +22.3  -- result:  Lost 17 - 24.  ATS margin: +15.3

4-0 ATS 

 
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Posted: #96
Let’s keep it positive folks ..!!!! If you want to play around then do it in the penalty box .. keep this thread and forum POSITIVE BA - do your thing!! GL bud !!!
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by Ifan_Bates:

That brings up, what each of us considers "running it up" 

Lots of different equations from what I have seen,,,

Some coaches (Saban) will not run it up

Other coaches (coaches who's teams need to look good for a committee) will

But at what point does a coaches thinking allow him to change something in the game, to or not to run it up?

I still cannot imagine a team like Michigan overlooking a team like Army because of that, or maybe I am wrong, my initial thinking was they want to be ready for Wisconsin


vs big dog always......

1)  will dog have the FULL FOCUS of favorite ?

* who's on deck?......what's down the road as well?....players check > pick spots for max efforts / spots to let up a bit......coaches are often reluctant to show the entire playbook in a game they're gonna win anyway
       note:   after week 1.....what happened the weeks before is huge as well.....physically AND emotionally 
           * like Ga Southern vs Maine?.....off LSU (huge physical toll)......with road trip to Minny on deck?

*  coach's history?......smart coaches REALLY don't want a feel good home blow-out.......WHY?....media + fans patting them on back ....." wow you're AWESOME !!......an UGLY win is often preferred (behind closed doors)....Saban fits this to a T....but often has such a TALENT edge they cover anyway.....see V Tech 2013.....Penn St 2010 etc.....both BRUTAL performances that still won ATS

2)  as I have said repeatedly.....STOP thinking 'FIRED UP'
      >> think : will they be INTENSE / FOCUSED in their preparation ??.........ANY coach will tell you that PRACTICE is the key indicator of how you will play.....but yet this is seldom mentioned....RUNNING ON THE FIELD .....'FIRED UP !!!'....is all that matters to most everybody.....DUMB....DUMB.....DUMB

eg.  LSU under the crazy Cajun......has NOT ONCE played well vs 'inferior' team early....laying a bunch
        >>> so THIS TIME vs a RUNNING / BLEED CLOCK team like GS.....you're gonna lay 30+...................what?......... 

TEXAS....under TH.....hasn't even shown up.....except bounce back vs terrible SJSU in the HEAT.....but THIS TIME they will !!!
"you just wait and see!!!!"......sound wagering strategy?......
    
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


You boys will have to forgive me for using my own post season #s here (intended to reflect "true" point spread based on actual data), but I suspect the closing lines at game time result in a similar finding..... service academies that control the clock cover ATS at a high rate vs. top tier opponents.

2018 (using standard 2.8 point for HF):

Air Force:
at #21 Utah State +19.3  -- result: lost 42-32, but covered ATS by 9.3.

vs. #28 Boise State +11.0 -- result:  lost 48-38, but covered by 1.0.

at #48 Army +11.7 -- result:  lost 17-14, but covered by 8.7.

3-0 ATS with average ATS margin = 6.4 ppg.

Army:
at #40 Duke +4.1 -- result: lost 34-14.  ATS margin: -15.9

at #4 Oklahoma +19.6 -- result: lost 28-21.  ATS margin:  +12.6

1-1 ATS

Navy:
vs. #6 Notre Dame +27.3 (neutral site) -- result: Lost 44-22.  ATS margin +5.3.

at #20 Central Florida +23.5 -- result:  Lost 35-24.  ATS margin: +12.5.

2-0 ATS with average margin +8.9

2017 (using standard 2.8 point for HF):

Air Force:
at #23 Michigan +20.3 -- result:  Lost 29-13.  ATS margin: +4.3

Army:
at #6 Ohio State +28.7 -- result:  Lost 38-7.  ATS margin:  -2.4.

*Army was 3-0 ATS vs. #51 - #60 range (average ATS margin: +6.4 ppg).

Navy:
at #36 Florida Atlantic +9.7 -- result:  Won 42 - 19.  ATS margin: +32.7.  *Week 1 - FAU much improved later in the season.

at #27 Memphis +12.6 -- result:  Lost 30 - 27.  ATS margin:  +9.6

vs. Central Florida +11.8  -- result:  Lost 21 - 31.  ATS margin:  +1.8.

at #9 Notre Dame +22.3  -- result:  Lost 17 - 24.  ATS margin: +15.3

4-0 ATS 


Oh that is definitely true, I definitely agree with that, that is why I love Army going against top 25 teams, it was just a question (I think) of the reasoning behind a big name team like Michigan putting up big number against honorable individuals. 
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by superbeets:

Let’s keep it positive folks ..!!!! If you want to play around then do it in the penalty box .. keep this thread and forum POSITIVE BA - do your thing!! GL bud !!!

trying my damnedest to behave SB...................

                                            
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
 
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Posted: #100
In fact....let's shut this one down except for actual DISCUSSION of these 3 games.....I'll probably have another one close to game time....as late line movements open things up a bit ........


As for anyone STILL confused / upset with my ........"style"      

As my bio says....I was RAISED TO BE A FOOTBALL PLAYER > COACH > GAMBLER.....weird but true.....at 13 my old man got me up at 6-7am every Sat....to study Sat / Sun match-ups.....box scores / Gold Sheet etc.....
      * dad / grandpa...uncle / great uncle.....all were pro gamblers and played in NFL / CFL (Edmonton!) / college....plus coached in college and / or high school.......hopefully not all at same time ha

SO.....here I am 45 years later..............
  * a CFB bully?......of course......my intentions respectful (mostly ha).....but always honorable.....as far as this selling picks thing goes......not a chance in HELL I ever screw guys outta their hard earned cash ....or EVER do less than my absolute BEST....


The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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