WEEK 2 lines...plays

here's the 'what the line should be' stuff.....that I intended to post yesterday / this morning.....maybe of some use since most haven't bet yet anyway.....too hard to figure ....way too many teams out this year

  

451 KANSAS CITY
8:30 p.m. NBC
452 NEW ENGLAND  -9'

Idaho St
8:00 p.m.
Utah St     -28

301 OHIO

8:00 p.m.
302 PURDUE  -2

303 OKLAHOMA ST  -24
8:00 p.m. ESPN2
304 SOUTH ALABAMA
  * OSU > @ Pitt

SATURDAY
Sept 9
 
305 FAU
12:00 p.m.
306 WISCONSIN   -32
  * Wisky  > @ BYU'

307 BUFFALO
12:00 p.m. CBSC
308 ARMY  -16
  * Army > Ohio St
 * LY Buff won 23-20

309 WESTERN MICHIGAN
12:00 p.m.
310 MICHIGAN  STATE    -7
  * MSU bye next (6-3-1 ATS)
  * WM off USC road > Idaho

311 EASTERN MICHIGAN
12:00 p.m.
312 RUTGERS  -3
  * EM > bye
 * RU > FCS

313 ODU  -3
12:00 p.m.
314 MASSACHUSETTS

315 NORTHWESTERN  -4
12:00 p.m. espnU
316 DUKE
  *  LY NW won 24-13
 * Duke > @  N Caro
 

317 USF  -18'
12:00 p.m. ESPN
318 CONNECTICUT
  * DO NOT bet this game

319 EAST CAROLINA
12:00 p.m.
320 WEST VIRGINIA  -18'

321 CINCINNATI
12:00 p.m.
322 MICHIGAN  -27'
 

323 LOUISVILLE  -7
12:00 p.m.
324 NORTH CAROLINA
  * UL > Clemson
  * Fedora 12-7 off loss

325 CHARLOTTE
12:00 p.m.
326 KANSAS ST  -33
 * KSU at Vandy next

327   IOWA  -2'
12:00 p.m.
328 IOWA ST

329 WAKE FOREST  -1
1:00 p.m.
330 BOSTON COLLEGE
  * WF  FCS/ Utah
 *  BC tough game / Irish
 * BC won LY 17-13

331 NEW MEXICO ST
2:00 p.m.
332 NEW MEXICO    -13'
  * NMSU  @ Ariz St / Troy
  * NM   FCS / BOISE (5)
  * LY NMSU won 32-30

333 RICE
2:00 p.m.
334 UTEP  -1'
  * LY Owls won 44-24

335 TEXAS ST
2:00 p.m.
336 COLORADO  -34
  * Col only FCS next

337 UAB
3:00 p.m.
338 BALL ST   -10

339 MIDDLE TENNESSEE
3:30 p.m.
340 SYRACUSE  -7'

341 INDIANA  -1'
3:30 p.m.
342 VIRGINIA 

343 PITTSBURGH
3:30 p.m.
344 PENN STATE   -16'
  *Pitt > Okie St
 * Pitt won LY by 3

345 FRESNO ST
3:30 p.m. espn2
346 ALABAMA  -40
 * Bama > Col St

347 TULANE
3:30 p.m. CBS
348 NAVY  -14

349 WKU   -7
3:30 p.m.
350 ILLINOIS

351 UTSA
3:30 p.m.
352 BAYLOR  -17
  * UTSA 1st game
 * B > @ Duke[km

353 HAWAII
3:30 p.m.
354 UCLA  -17

355 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
3:30 p.m.
356 KANSAS  -2'
  * CM off ugly 3 OT home win vs RI

357 NEBRASKA
3:30 p.m.
358 OREGON  -10
  *Neb won by 3 LY 

359 MIAMI, FL    -17'
3:30 p.m. ESPNU
360 ARKANSAS STATE
  *  Canes > FSU
  * ASU off tough road loss / > FCS
 
361 SAN JOSE STATE
3:30 p.m.
362 TEXAS  -25
  * TX  off bad loss > @ USC-0

363 TCU 
3:30 p.m. CBS
364 ARKANSAS      P
  * TCU FCS / SMU
 *Ark FCS / bye
 * Hogs won LY by 3 ( +10)

365 LOUISIANA
4:00 p.m.
366 TULSA  -16

367 MARSHALL
6:00 p.m.
368 NC STATE  -20'
  * NCSU - SCaro LOSS  / FCS
 * Doeren 12-14 off loss

369 TOLEDO  -12
7:00 p.m.
370 NEVADA

371 ULM
7:00 p.m.
372 FLORIDA ST  -35
  * FSU>  UGLY Bama / Cane sammich
 * FSU > QB likely out

373 SOUTH CAROLINA  -1
7:00 p.m. espn2
374 MISSOURI    
  * SC won by 10 LY

375 NORTH TEXAS
7:00 p.m.
376 SMU  -13'

377 AUBURN
7:00 p.m. ESPN
378 CLEMSON  -6
  * Aub -  Ga South / FCS
 * Clem > @ Louisville
 * LY Clem won 19-13
 
379 GEORGIA
7:30 p.m. NBC
380 NOTRE DAME   P
  * Check status Ga QB

381 MISSISSIPPI STATE  -7
7:30 p.m. CBSC
382 LOUISIANA TECH
  * MSU > LSU
 * LT > WKU

383 OKLAHOMA
7:30 p.m. ABC
384 OHIO STATE    -6'
  *OSU won 45-24 LY (-1)

385 MEMPHIS   -2
8:00 p.m. ESPN
386 UCF

387 STANFORD
8:30 p.m.
388 USC    -6
  * Tree is 7-3SU / 7-3 ATS / 6-4 OU series
  *Tree won by 17 LY

389 UNLV
9:00 p.m.
390 IDAHO  -7

391 MINNESOTA   -2

10:00 p.m.
392 OREGON STATE

393 SAN DIEGO STATE   P
10:00 p.m.
394 ARIZONA STATE

395 UTAH
10:15 p.m.
396 BYU  -1'
  *BYU - 3rd game

397 HOUSTON  -3
10:30 p.m.
398 ARIZONA
  * Hou - 1st game

399 BOISE STATE
10:30 p.m.
400 WASHINGTON STATE   -7
  * Boise won LY 31-28
 * W - FCS > Beavs
 B- tough W > NNex in 5

earlier.....I hated OU in this spot......now  after watching the Buckeyes play.....I hate BOTH teams in this spot.................

  * in-game only......OU is gonna get killed....OR if the Buckeyes give them hope.....with early offensive struggles.....it could be close... 

good man LVM.....BOL this week..............

Auburn +9? Were you first in line?  I still like the +6.5

1)  get a BetOnline account

2)  decide what a fair line should be

3)  determine what numbers you will play / and for how much

4)  log on to BetOnline around 12:00p E time every Sunday......> hit refresh until they start popping up

It's as simple as that................................................

  * guys don't do it much here.....but I've been seeing it for years....sleep late > watch NFL crap.....check in here when NFL games are over and go...."hey man where you get those lines wtf......make 'em up?.....I see Texas favored by 30......".......  

I've told you guys what.....A MILLION TIMES

BUT continually.....when discussions come up.....we get:

Man we don't really stand a chance....these numbers are too sharp!.....it's a coin flip!..........

Well no shiit...................

  * if you WAIT.....until later in the  week.....it is hard

That's why you will see very few side bets from me later......it's all halftime , in-game stuff........I do more on my phone that I don't have time to post here 

BetOnline's opening numbers are terrible

  * 5Dimes opening FCS numbers are WORSE....because you know ahead of time what they will be  > Massey's when updated

forgot.....hell I missed out on those GOY numbers myself

  *early lines are usually just based on LAST YEARS PR numbers......incredibly enough

5Dimes doesn't even bother to check what team's lose / gain....they just throw 'em out with lower limits + more juice....

  * obvious losses they adjust a few points.....QB / HC ......for a handful of teams that's it.........................  

BA,   Human nature.  All the #'s in the world can't make you a successful gambler unless you have you have a certain attitude.  

You know what I mean.  

$  staying AHEAD....is the basic idea

1)  download / print next week's schedule....now meaning week 3
       * in rotation order

https://www.ncsports.com/schedule_logs.html

2)  identify / circle....teams of interest
       * as you're watching games THIS week....keep up with these teams...AND their opponents
         
eg.   week 3...... let's look at Air Force at Michigan
  
  * Michigan off a (likely) big home romp over Cinn.....with Purdue on deck.... previously....a great (line inflating) win over Florida....that EVERYBODY saw
       $  meaning....this line will (probably) be more than it should be

 

* Air Force?.....off bye / SDSU on deck...

  

      $    how has Calhoun prepared his team off bye?

go to....  

https://www.oddsshark.com/stats/dbresults/football/ncaa

looks like 5-5 or so overall.....8-2 if on road

NOTE:    here not much to check out match-up wise....Michigan is gonna be tough vs the run.....the only question is how have they played vs option teams?......do they enjoy guys going at their knees for 60 minutes?.....many don't care for it too much....... 

3)  figure out at what NUMBER...will you play Air Force?....or Michigan if a B10 butt blaster / recreational capper....I reckon ha

check with Massey :

https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=295489&t0=United+States+Air+Force+Academy&h=-1&s1=295489&t1=University+of+Michigan
  * Massey says... 41-17......not bad

Sagarin :
https://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
  * here we get 24-25 or so....his aren't adjusted yet...so I bumped Michigan up a point or 2

If not a cheap / broke basterd...pay for the Gold Sheet...their numbers best reflect Vegas PR's ....you can use these to make your own.....> don't have to get it every week....make adjustments yourself.......comes out every MONDAY nite at 10:00p E

  * I LOVE reading it .....always pick up a few ideas....I IGNORE their picks...their research is top notch....brief previews of every college and NFL game.  ......fight thru the Barry Goldwater....Spiro T Agnew references................... 

 
https://www.goldsheet.com/product.php

* here we get Michigan (adjusted) -20 or so

$$$     I'm gonna say......we (consider) AF....at 24 or more....and will definitely play at 28....which if they really kill Cinn.....we may get 

4)  THEN......you keep up with stuff that might effect next week's game....
       * read LOCAL news for injuries not known yet.....what's Calhoun saying about Michigan?...  are they beat up....just trying to get ready for MTW play?....or fired up / healthy....ready to go?

5)  SO...by the time lines come out....you're READY
       * you don't have to WAIT.....to see who else likes AF....you know

6)  ALSO....you have to PREDICT...which way the line will go....based on the opening number
    $  it opens at 21-22......which way do you think?
    $  at 28?......likely to drop ....at BetOnline....may go up wtf
    $  at 24?.....I would WAIT....if it drops ....it is likely to rise at some point anyway

6)   PRE-DETERMINE what your bet will be
        * at 24+?....one unit maybe......I see 28?....maybe 1.25 units
          less than 24 .....pass or 1/2 unit?

       POINT :  know beforehand.....so you don't make an emotional decision....

7)   IF SMART...................

        * you KNOW.....the best place to get the inflated number is BetOnline.......here you might get 28-30 even.....later you might be only able to get 24-25

      $    don't forget to whine about guys that got the better #'s

8)  MAKE THE PLAY......move TF on....for the love of God man

        * as there is more work to be done.............
 

Nice lines- wish I could get them that early- I would have sold my soul to get Oregon at -7!!

Good Luck!!

probably shouldn't do this.....also probably shouldn't have mentioned other sites as well.........sorry Covers.........

 Here is LAST WEEK'S Gold Sheet Power Rankings......I don't think they will mind.......since I am strongly suggesting you buy this weeks.....seriously

1st number is home field advantage....CR means current rating....FR means final rating for 2016...... SUR means SU record for 2016......PSR means ATS record for 2016.

  *  lower number the better.....Bama is -13......meaning they (should be) favored over Akron (25).....by 38 points on a neutral field.....41 at Bama (+3).....36 at Akron (-2)

2 Air Force 14 11 10-3 6-7

2 Akron 25 21 5-7 4-8
3 Alabama -13 -18 14-1 9-4-2
3 Appalachian St. 12 8 10-3 7-6
2 Arizona 19 22 3-9 2-10
3 Arizona State 15 20 5-7 6-6
3 Arkansas 12 12 7-6 5-8
3 Arkansas State 17 15 8-5 7-6
2 Army 16 17 8-5 7-6
4 Auburn -2 -2 8-5 8-4-1
1 Ball State 25 22 4-8 7-5
3 Baylor 12 10 7-6 4-9
4 Boise State 5 7 10-3 3-9-1
2 Boston College 14 17 7-6 7-6
1 Bowling Green 26 27 4-8 4-8
3 Buffalo 34 36 2-10 4-8
3 BYU 6 5 9-4 9-4
3 California 18 18 5-7 5-7
2 Central Mich. 19 19 6-7 5-8
3 Charlotte 28 30 4-8 5-7
1 Cincinnati 18 22 4-8 3-9
3 Clemson -10 -17 14-1 7-7
3 Coastal Car. 27 NR 10-2 ---
4 Colorado 6 4 10-4 10-4
3 Colorado St. 10 10 7-6 9-3-1
2 Connecticut 26 29 3-9 2-8-2
2 Duke 16 16 4-8 7-5
2 East Carolina 23 25 3-9 3-8-1
2 Eastern Mich. 17 16 7-6 10-3
3 Florida 3 4 9-4 6-7
2 Florida Atlantic 28 32 3-9 2-9-1
2 Florida Intl. 25 27 4-8 5-7
3 Florida State -6 -5 10-3 8-5
3 Fresno State 28 32 1-11 7-4
4 Georgia 4 7 8-5 6-7
2 Ga. Southern 27 24 5-7 3-9
2 Georgia State 29 30 3-9 7-5
3 Georgia Tech 10 7 9-4 7-5
4 Hawaii 22 27 7-7 6-7
2 Houston 7 6 9-4 4-8-1
2 Idaho 20 20 9-4 9-4
2 Illinois 23 25 3-9 5-7
2 Indiana 16 12 6-7 6-7
3 Iowa 8 10 8-5 6-7
4 Iowa State 19 18 3-9 7-5
3 Kansas 27 27 2-10 6-6
3 Kansas St. 2 2 9-4 7-5
2 Kent State 26 26 3-9 6-6
3 Kentucky 10 12 7-6 7-6
2 La.-Lafayette 22 22 6-7 8-5
2 La.-Monroe 29 29 4-8 6-6
4 Louisiana Tech 13 12 9-5 8-6
5 Louisville -2 -4 9-4 6-7
3 LSU -4 -8 8-4 6-6
3 Marshall 22 34 3-9 4-8
2 Maryland 19 18 6-7 4-9
3 Massachusetts 28 33 2-10 7-5
3 Memphis 6 10 8-5 5-8
3 Miami-Fla. 0 0 9-4 9-4
2 Miami-Ohio 19 19 6-7 9-4
4 Michigan 1 -6 10-3 6-7
3 Michigan St. 11 15 3-9 4-8
3 Mid. Tennessee 17 18 8-5 5-6-2
3 Minnesota 12 12 9-4 6-6-1
4 Mississippi 11 12 5-7 4-8

2 Mississippi St. 9 9 6-7 5-8
3 Missouri 14 17 4-8 4-7
3 Navy 10 10 9-5 8-4-2
4 Nebraska 7 12 9-4 7-5-1
2 Nevada 26 27 5-7 4-8
3 New Mexico 15 16 9-4 6-7
2 New Mexico St. 32 33 3-9 7-5
3 North Carolina 10 3 8-5 8-5
2 N. Carolina St. 7 5 7-6 9-4
2 North Texas 27 29 5-8 7-5-1
2 Northern Illinois 14 14 5-7 6-5-1
3 Northwestern 6 6 7-6 8-5
3 Notre Dame 7 10 4-8 4-8
2 Ohio 16 15 8-6 8-6
3 Ohio State -7 -6 11-2 6-7
5 Oklahoma -5 -10 11-2 7-6
3 Oklahoma St. -2 0 10-3 8-5
4 Old Dominion 16 15 10-3 9-4
3 Oregon 11 15 4-8 2-9-1
3 Oregon State 18 17 4-8 8-3-1
4 Penn State -2 -2 11-3 10-3-1
2 Pittsburgh 7 4 8-5 5-8
1 Purdue 24 25 3-9 5-7
2 Rice 35 27 3-9 6-6
2 Rutgers 28 32 2-10 4-8
4 San Diego St. 7 5 11-3 8-6
2 San Jose St. 26 23 4-8 5-6
3 SMU 19 20 5-7 8-4
2 South Alabama 24 24 6-7 3-10
4 South Carolina 11 14 6-7 6-7
4 South Florida 3 4 11-2 7-5-1
5 Southern Cal -6 -7 10-3 8-5
2 Southern Miss 21 17 7-6 4-9
3 Stanford 1 3 10-3 6-7
3 Syracuse 19 23 4-8 5-7
3 TCU 8 9 6-7 3-10
3 Temple 15 4 10-4 12-2
3 Tennessee 7 4 9-4 5-7-1
3 Texas 5 8 5-7 6-6
3 Texas A&M 9 6 8-5 4-8-1
1 Texas State 36 42 2-10 5-7
3 Texas Tech 15 15 5-7 8-4
3 Toledo 9 9 9-4 6-6-1
3 Troy 13 15 10-3 6-6-1
2 Tulane 23 25 4-8 6-6
3 Tulsa 10 5 10-3 8-4-1
3 UAB 29 NR — —
3 UCF 12 11 6-7 8-5
3 UCLA 7 16 4-8 4-8
2 UNLV 23 24 4-8 6-6
3 Utah 6 5 9-4 7-6
2 Utah State 23 19 3-9 3-9
2 UTEP 32 33 4-8 5-6-1
2 UTSA 21 19 6-7 7-5-1
3 Vanderbilt 11 13 6-7 7-6
2 Virginia 19 22 2-10 5-7
3 Virginia Tech 3 1 10-4 8-6
3 Wake Forest 11 12 7-6 8-5
5 Washington -3 -6 12-2 7-7
3 Washington St. 6 6 8-5 6-7
4 West Virginia 6 5 10-3 5-8
4 Western Ky 23 1 11-3 7-5-2
3 W. Michigan 15 2 13-1 9-4-1
3 Wisconsin 0 -2 11-3 9-4-1
3 Wyoming 15 14 8-6 9-4-1

A few are off a bit IMO......most pretty close and reflect current lines....and GOY lines

Back in a few days boys......will answer questions THEN.......

I'm liking those too!

Online sights just heads & tails above Vegas in the value department.

Still waiting for lines to be posted here!