Every single team brings up the let-down. Doesnt mean they avoid it. Thats not even my argument. My argument is that they are overvalued. I know, I bet on them when they werent. Ive seen the uptick.
I agree with you on the overvalued idea. I really feel Clemson can win the ACC, but on a national level there is a lot of teams that would maul the Tigers. Hell there are teams in the ACC that could beat them, but not a chance this week. We will see in the weeks to come. Georgia is coming around a little bit now. I just feel this line should have opened a lot higher, and now that BC backers have bumped it down to 20.5, I have to put my money on Clemson. I hated the 21.5 line when I saw it, but when I looked late last night, I bit for the Tigers -20.5.
Do you have any thoughts about KY +21?
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Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:
Every single team brings up the let-down. Doesnt mean they avoid it. Thats not even my argument. My argument is that they are overvalued. I know, I bet on them when they werent. Ive seen the uptick.
I agree with you on the overvalued idea. I really feel Clemson can win the ACC, but on a national level there is a lot of teams that would maul the Tigers. Hell there are teams in the ACC that could beat them, but not a chance this week. We will see in the weeks to come. Georgia is coming around a little bit now. I just feel this line should have opened a lot higher, and now that BC backers have bumped it down to 20.5, I have to put my money on Clemson. I hated the 21.5 line when I saw it, but when I looked late last night, I bit for the Tigers -20.5.
the most meaningful thing you have said was in post 1. if someone lost money last week , chances are they wont have a winning week again for a while. i am para phrasing because i dont cut and paste well. i hope guys listen to you.
you are an awesome source sizzle. i always come to your thread. you have never been to mine. you understand how hard it gets from here forward and that impresses me. i know weeks 1-4 are money give away weeks if you cap well. from now on, vegas will be close, very close. some fall through , especially in lesser conferences .
how do you feel about unc v louisville
akron fiu
ucf marshall
while you are here , what is your take on lsu /fl, and vandy/ala ??
0
the most meaningful thing you have said was in post 1. if someone lost money last week , chances are they wont have a winning week again for a while. i am para phrasing because i dont cut and paste well. i hope guys listen to you.
you are an awesome source sizzle. i always come to your thread. you have never been to mine. you understand how hard it gets from here forward and that impresses me. i know weeks 1-4 are money give away weeks if you cap well. from now on, vegas will be close, very close. some fall through , especially in lesser conferences .
how do you feel about unc v louisville
akron fiu
ucf marshall
while you are here , what is your take on lsu /fl, and vandy/ala ??
RJ, Good points and you are exactly right if it were just about looking at teams numbers we all would be millionaires!!You have good insight on intangables,situations,so on and alot of times that's what its about.What teams will think mentally.Of course Clemson is on fire and the numbers say blowout but it dont work that way.
0
RJ, Good points and you are exactly right if it were just about looking at teams numbers we all would be millionaires!!You have good insight on intangables,situations,so on and alot of times that's what its about.What teams will think mentally.Of course Clemson is on fire and the numbers say blowout but it dont work that way.
I got curious, and did some research for anyone who needs hard evidence...
From '08-'11, MAC teams who won their previous game outright as road dogs are just 2-10 ATS when a home fave in their next game, and 4-19 ATS at home regardless of spread (fave or dog)
0
I got curious, and did some research for anyone who needs hard evidence...
From '08-'11, MAC teams who won their previous game outright as road dogs are just 2-10 ATS when a home fave in their next game, and 4-19 ATS at home regardless of spread (fave or dog)
Amazing how many people in here don't understand the basic concept of value, and overlook some of the best plays on the board b/c of it.
Keep doing what you do, and don't bother explaining more than once. We need the squares out there keeping lines like Clemson up over 21 so we can get even more value...
0
Siz-
Amazing how many people in here don't understand the basic concept of value, and overlook some of the best plays on the board b/c of it.
Keep doing what you do, and don't bother explaining more than once. We need the squares out there keeping lines like Clemson up over 21 so we can get even more value...
165 , arent they +6.5 ? i have them there. is it moving?
On Monday it got as high as 8.5, now it's at 7 or 6.5 depending on the book. Country just saw Pitt dominate SF at home Thursday night. Rutgers seems to be an under the radar team right now that keeps getting disrespted by bettors. Nobody has this team on their card in the forums.
0
Quote Originally Posted by depbmoc:
165 , arent they +6.5 ? i have them there. is it moving?
On Monday it got as high as 8.5, now it's at 7 or 6.5 depending on the book. Country just saw Pitt dominate SF at home Thursday night. Rutgers seems to be an under the radar team right now that keeps getting disrespted by bettors. Nobody has this team on their card in the forums.
On Monday it got as high as 8.5, now it's at 7 or 6.5 depending on the book. Country just saw Pitt dominate SF at home Thursday night. Rutgers seems to be an under the radar team right now that keeps getting disrespted by bettors. Nobody has this team on their card in the forums.
I watched the majority of their game vs. Cuse, and they essentially won by being less bad...it was horrendous. Now they have a QB controversy going into this week, against a Pitt squad that appears much better than their record may indicate...
Not sure of RJ's opinion, but I think it's hard to endorse a Rutgers play here.
0
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:
On Monday it got as high as 8.5, now it's at 7 or 6.5 depending on the book. Country just saw Pitt dominate SF at home Thursday night. Rutgers seems to be an under the radar team right now that keeps getting disrespted by bettors. Nobody has this team on their card in the forums.
I watched the majority of their game vs. Cuse, and they essentially won by being less bad...it was horrendous. Now they have a QB controversy going into this week, against a Pitt squad that appears much better than their record may indicate...
Not sure of RJ's opinion, but I think it's hard to endorse a Rutgers play here.
What are your thoughts on Rutgers at more than a TD? GL this week.
I grabbed Rutgers @ 7 for 5 units. Its really just that I have this man-crush on Pitt this year. Or else it wouldve been 10 units. Pitt is going to fucking rake in their bowl. They are a horrendous matchup for most teams, just not Rutgers. Rutgers is the rare team that defends the spread well and still stops the run.
0
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:
What are your thoughts on Rutgers at more than a TD? GL this week.
I grabbed Rutgers @ 7 for 5 units. Its really just that I have this man-crush on Pitt this year. Or else it wouldve been 10 units. Pitt is going to fucking rake in their bowl. They are a horrendous matchup for most teams, just not Rutgers. Rutgers is the rare team that defends the spread well and still stops the run.
I agree with you on the overvalued idea. I really feel Clemson can win the ACC, but on a national level there is a lot of teams that would maul the Tigers. Hell there are teams in the ACC that could beat them, but not a chance this week. We will see in the weeks to come. Georgia is coming around a little bit now. I just feel this line should have opened a lot higher, and now that BC backers have bumped it down to 20.5, I have to put my money on Clemson. I hated the 21.5 line when I saw it, but when I looked late last night, I bit for the Tigers -20.5.
Do you have any thoughts about KY +21?
Muck, I respect your thoughts. I read your threads.
But I have to disagree with you here. If you really think people were champing at the bit to fade Clemson with BC, I think you are out of your mind. Read everyones initial reaction to me fading Clemson.
I like KY and think they keep it within the #. But I bet on KY last week and if a team covers a line as a dog, I rarely go back to that well the following week.
Every square bettor north of the mason dixie is on SC, which makes me seriously lean to KY, just like NC State last week
0
Quote Originally Posted by GoMuckYaSelf:
I agree with you on the overvalued idea. I really feel Clemson can win the ACC, but on a national level there is a lot of teams that would maul the Tigers. Hell there are teams in the ACC that could beat them, but not a chance this week. We will see in the weeks to come. Georgia is coming around a little bit now. I just feel this line should have opened a lot higher, and now that BC backers have bumped it down to 20.5, I have to put my money on Clemson. I hated the 21.5 line when I saw it, but when I looked late last night, I bit for the Tigers -20.5.
Do you have any thoughts about KY +21?
Muck, I respect your thoughts. I read your threads.
But I have to disagree with you here. If you really think people were champing at the bit to fade Clemson with BC, I think you are out of your mind. Read everyones initial reaction to me fading Clemson.
I like KY and think they keep it within the #. But I bet on KY last week and if a team covers a line as a dog, I rarely go back to that well the following week.
Every square bettor north of the mason dixie is on SC, which makes me seriously lean to KY, just like NC State last week
the most meaningful thing you have said was in post 1. if someone lost money last week , chances are they wont have a winning week again for a while. i am para phrasing because i dont cut and paste well. i hope guys listen to you.
you are an awesome source sizzle. i always come to your thread. you have never been to mine. you understand how hard it gets from here forward and that impresses me. i know weeks 1-4 are money give away weeks if you cap well. from now on, vegas will be close, very close. some fall through , especially in lesser conferences .
how do you feel about unc v louisville
akron fiu
ucf marshall
while you are here , what is your take on lsu /fl, and vandy/ala ??
Last week was the tipping point. If you lost last week, just track your plays this week. Dont gamble. Then realize how much more money you wouldve given back.
I banged UF. I posted in the UF/LSU thread that i liked UF. LSU cant score enough.
Louisville, somehow, will cover that #. Although UNC has 3rd stringers that are better.
UCF/Marshall no thoughts. Think UCF is a one-loss team this year. And yes, I called the loss outright.
Vandy/Ala stay the fuck away. I banged Vandy back-to-back against Ole Miss and UCONN. This team is starting to have lines catch up to them. People start looking to bet teams they lose their money against - see FIU against ULL, ugh. I feel bad for those clueless bettors.
0
Quote Originally Posted by depbmoc:
the most meaningful thing you have said was in post 1. if someone lost money last week , chances are they wont have a winning week again for a while. i am para phrasing because i dont cut and paste well. i hope guys listen to you.
you are an awesome source sizzle. i always come to your thread. you have never been to mine. you understand how hard it gets from here forward and that impresses me. i know weeks 1-4 are money give away weeks if you cap well. from now on, vegas will be close, very close. some fall through , especially in lesser conferences .
how do you feel about unc v louisville
akron fiu
ucf marshall
while you are here , what is your take on lsu /fl, and vandy/ala ??
Last week was the tipping point. If you lost last week, just track your plays this week. Dont gamble. Then realize how much more money you wouldve given back.
I banged UF. I posted in the UF/LSU thread that i liked UF. LSU cant score enough.
Louisville, somehow, will cover that #. Although UNC has 3rd stringers that are better.
UCF/Marshall no thoughts. Think UCF is a one-loss team this year. And yes, I called the loss outright.
Vandy/Ala stay the fuck away. I banged Vandy back-to-back against Ole Miss and UCONN. This team is starting to have lines catch up to them. People start looking to bet teams they lose their money against - see FIU against ULL, ugh. I feel bad for those clueless bettors.
I got curious, and did some research for anyone who needs hard evidence...
From '08-'11, MAC teams who won their previous game outright as road dogs are just 2-10 ATS when a home fave in their next game, and 4-19 ATS at home regardless of spread (fave or dog)
Someone please read every post this kid makes. I used to own a site where he posted team breakdowns of everyone. This is one of the brightest minds at Covers, people.
0
Quote Originally Posted by lindetrain:
I got curious, and did some research for anyone who needs hard evidence...
From '08-'11, MAC teams who won their previous game outright as road dogs are just 2-10 ATS when a home fave in their next game, and 4-19 ATS at home regardless of spread (fave or dog)
Someone please read every post this kid makes. I used to own a site where he posted team breakdowns of everyone. This is one of the brightest minds at Covers, people.
Amazing how many people in here don't understand the basic concept of value, and overlook some of the best plays on the board b/c of it.
Keep doing what you do, and don't bother explaining more than once. We need the squares out there keeping lines like Clemson up over 21 so we can get even more value...
I dont know why I argue with these people. If they dont bet, I dont get twenty-fucking one, in conference. How do I not want that?
And for anyone who wants to bet Rutgers...this is the only time all year Pitt can be outcoached. Schiano has one of the top 10 staffs in football. If he could ever recruit, it would be lights out. But nobody wants to come to south fucking jersey where nobody gives a fuck about college football.
I see no way Pitt covers 7 on the road here.
Its just that you might not see me posting Rutgers because I would literally blow the entire Pitt team.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Johnnynumbers:
Siz-
Amazing how many people in here don't understand the basic concept of value, and overlook some of the best plays on the board b/c of it.
Keep doing what you do, and don't bother explaining more than once. We need the squares out there keeping lines like Clemson up over 21 so we can get even more value...
I dont know why I argue with these people. If they dont bet, I dont get twenty-fucking one, in conference. How do I not want that?
And for anyone who wants to bet Rutgers...this is the only time all year Pitt can be outcoached. Schiano has one of the top 10 staffs in football. If he could ever recruit, it would be lights out. But nobody wants to come to south fucking jersey where nobody gives a fuck about college football.
I see no way Pitt covers 7 on the road here.
Its just that you might not see me posting Rutgers because I would literally blow the entire Pitt team.
Someone please read every post this kid makes. I used to own a site where he posted team breakdowns of everyone. This is one of the brightest minds at Covers, people.
No fucking way. Guess I should have put 2 & 2 together, but for some reason, never did...
Don't listen to him, people...I'm just another guy getting his ass handed to him this season, and apparently shouldn't bet until the last week of November
0
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:
Someone please read every post this kid makes. I used to own a site where he posted team breakdowns of everyone. This is one of the brightest minds at Covers, people.
No fucking way. Guess I should have put 2 & 2 together, but for some reason, never did...
Don't listen to him, people...I'm just another guy getting his ass handed to him this season, and apparently shouldn't bet until the last week of November
can you expand on your thoughts on the iowa game ?
I have no in-depth thoughts on this one.
I used to be a terrible bettor. I hustled chronic and had a shitload of money. I would bet stacks on the worst plays around. Six months in, I realized I didnt want to lose any money. I didnt care who I bet on, clearly betting on the good teams and the good lines wasnt working.
I decided to look at things a different way. If I looked at the same shit everyone else does, how the hell can I ever have an advantage? I mean, with widely held info, isnt everyone just grasping at straws for a play? A player is injured? The line counts it. A team is on the road? A line counts it.
So I started to second guess everything. I started to see lines I used to cream over and thought again. Why on earth would someone welcomingly give me lines that I thought to be advantageous? Shit, if I were running a business, I wouldnt want to be that kind to my customers.
It was with that thinking that I started to second guess where I was coming from. Shit, I could hit a drive, but I wouldnt go tour. I can throw a spiral, but I am not showing up to the fucking combine. Why did I think that if I could place a bet I had any right doing so?
So I started to approach things differently. I looked at lines and how they opened and how the average puttz reacted to them. Based on that, I formed my opinion. This line? Geez. Even I was like, are these guys kidding me? Giving Iowa points? Penn State is horrible.
But then I thought again....is Penn State really horrible? Or do I think they are horrible because I saw a game they played on National TV? Geez. Am I really buying into the hype on how lines are set?
And there, in the opposite of a fucking nutshell, are exactly my thoughts on fading Iowa this week.
0
Quote Originally Posted by depbmoc:
can you expand on your thoughts on the iowa game ?
I have no in-depth thoughts on this one.
I used to be a terrible bettor. I hustled chronic and had a shitload of money. I would bet stacks on the worst plays around. Six months in, I realized I didnt want to lose any money. I didnt care who I bet on, clearly betting on the good teams and the good lines wasnt working.
I decided to look at things a different way. If I looked at the same shit everyone else does, how the hell can I ever have an advantage? I mean, with widely held info, isnt everyone just grasping at straws for a play? A player is injured? The line counts it. A team is on the road? A line counts it.
So I started to second guess everything. I started to see lines I used to cream over and thought again. Why on earth would someone welcomingly give me lines that I thought to be advantageous? Shit, if I were running a business, I wouldnt want to be that kind to my customers.
It was with that thinking that I started to second guess where I was coming from. Shit, I could hit a drive, but I wouldnt go tour. I can throw a spiral, but I am not showing up to the fucking combine. Why did I think that if I could place a bet I had any right doing so?
So I started to approach things differently. I looked at lines and how they opened and how the average puttz reacted to them. Based on that, I formed my opinion. This line? Geez. Even I was like, are these guys kidding me? Giving Iowa points? Penn State is horrible.
But then I thought again....is Penn State really horrible? Or do I think they are horrible because I saw a game they played on National TV? Geez. Am I really buying into the hype on how lines are set?
And there, in the opposite of a fucking nutshell, are exactly my thoughts on fading Iowa this week.
No fucking way. Guess I should have put 2 & 2 together, but for some reason, never did...
Don't listen to him, people...I'm just another guy getting his ass handed to him this season, and apparently shouldn't bet until the last week of November
Damn, Linde...you could Count on me, man, lol.
And dont make me feel bad because you lost last week. I didnt see your thread. Your thoughts have been getting sharper, how arent your plays?
I really respect your thoughts more than most. You are well versed.
0
Quote Originally Posted by lindetrain:
No fucking way. Guess I should have put 2 & 2 together, but for some reason, never did...
Don't listen to him, people...I'm just another guy getting his ass handed to him this season, and apparently shouldn't bet until the last week of November
Damn, Linde...you could Count on me, man, lol.
And dont make me feel bad because you lost last week. I didnt see your thread. Your thoughts have been getting sharper, how arent your plays?
I really respect your thoughts more than most. You are well versed.
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