week 7

@Macwestie1

thanks Mac best wishes on yours this week. 

@dyamarik

 Thank you Dyamarik I do love NHL but so many days and games.  I would play too many games and the juice would get me.  

wish you the best 

week 7

ZONA +4

UAB +26.5

N CAROLINA +5.5

NC ST +5

PURD 21.5

N WESTRN' 10.5

AIR FORCE 6.5

S. MISS 6.5

CSTL CAR +9.5

WISC +2

MIAMI O. -2.5

OKLA +14

WYOM +2.5

S.FLA +7

FRES +3.5

VANDY +13.5

HF and p:day = Thursday and day = Saturday and season>2011 and 10>week>2 and line>-21

add 

ARK ST

F and pp:ou margin > 20 and pp:dps > 20 and pp:ats margin > 20 and ats streak = -1 and line>-19 and line<-3 and 15>week>4

11-34 ATS 

it’s more support to fade UNLV 

Here is one that fades teams that have the rushing differential advantage in week 7....it's been 11-26 ATS, 7-32 straight up (-9.1) if we avoid teams  who are playing opponents that have won five games (West Virginia).

6)  Play AGAINST a home dog in week 7 that has at least a 30 yards/game rushing differential advantage  if the line is less than 14 if their opponent has less than five wins......VERSUS Colorado State, Eastern Michigan, Arizona State

HD and tA(rushing yards-o:rushing yards) - oA(rushing yards-o:rushing yards) > 30 and week = 7 and C and division = FBS and line < 14 and o:wins < 5

week 7

ZONA +4

UAB +26.5

N CAROLINA +5.5

NC ST +5

PURD 21.5

N WESTRN' 10.5

AIR FORCE 6.5

S. MISS 6.5

CSTL CAR +9.5

WISC +2

MIAMI O. -2.5

OKLA +14

WYOM +2.5

S.FLA +7

FRES +3.5

VANDY +13.5

UTAH St 

USC

Ark St

Best Bets in bold

ZONA +4

UAB +26.5

N CAROLINA +5.5

NC ST +5

PURD 21.5

N WESTRN' 10.5

AIR FORCE 6.5

S. MISS 6.5

CSTL CAR +9.5

WISC +2

MIAMI O. -2.5

OKLA +14

WYOM +2.5

S.FLA +7

FRES +3.5

VANDY +13.5

FL ATL +6.5

UTAH St +18.5

USC +4.5

Ark St +14.5

@spottie2935

 Totally get it - that is why (no time) I dont cap NFL and NCAAF and focus on NHL.  Hope you crush it this weekend. 

@dyamarik

@spottie2935

 I like UAB also i think way too many points to give by Army , see if i could get 27 to pull the trigger. BOL this week 

Kind of liking UAB myself. I'm going to put a little on it. Watiing to see if a +27 pops up.

@DrStrangelove

 best wishes this week

@westlake888

 it is too many.  Illinois too many as well. 

best on yours this week

Your query from Comment #4:

ats streak<-3 and D and season>2009 and o:wins>2 and 11>week>5

AD  80-44-4 (4.0, 64.5%)

HD  48-33-0 (1.3, 59.3%)

How do you handle this split?  Do you say, "I'll skip the HD's because the avg ATS margin is too small." Or do you say "Each category could be facing regression and maybe the HD's will do better this week."

I do this, but you got a good point. Or just bring the weeks close to week 7 instead of 7-11,drop the week to 9-5 and look at the difference.

ats streak < -3 and AD,HD and season > 2009 and o:wins > 2 and week=7

AD  16-6-1 (7.4, 72.7%)

HD 12-2-0 (9.4, 85.7%)

Dog the other thing I do is make one a FAV since he's looking at the D to see the difference. Like AF,HD or HF,AD. How do you handle it, just wondering.

@DogbiteWilliams

 our philosophy's are very different.  I think highly of what you do. 

For me I like higher winning results.  If I have to sacrifice the number of games I accept that. 

I dont need queries  with over a 500 game history.  I filter out a lot of the fluff to get 70 or more % winners. 

-========================================

I also dont give much credit to results and spread margin. 

Your query from Comment #4: ats streak<-3 and D and season>2009 and o:wins>2 and 11>week>5 AD  80-44-4 (4.0, 64.5%) HD  48-33-0 (1.3, 59.3%) How do you handle this split?  Do you say, "I'll skip the HD's because the avg ATS margin is too small." Or do you say "Each category could be facing regression and maybe the HD's will do better this week,

I filter and filter and even more filter looking for the best situations to get as close or higher than 70% winners.  So I will drop HD's if AD's have better results.  I "don't say anything.  I keep digging for 70%. If I get close to 70% i am satisfied.  If I dont Ill keep looking or drop it. 

In this case I got what I was looking for by isolating week and the overall query is very strong and supportive on all games. 

Also for further conversations why dont you say hi or something a little more friendly and less to the point?  I think its more of friends talking sports rather than business people discussing business.  I get turned off with a lot of drab conversations.  Its who I am.

I hope I didnt offend you on that. 

@hoody

 Hi spot I love what your doing?  Say by the way how is this?

Last week you asked a question and ghosted the conversation ?  why would you do that ?  Is my responce not appreciated or respected?  I dont quite understand?

I am picking because this is not friendly.  I am surprised I have to teach and preach when I spend my time to share. 

If you think I am being rude, I am not.  If you feel this way thats fine just exit the conversation, please. 

Thanks and best wishes 

This is perfect and appreciated. Makes me feel like I am someone that matters. 

Fade UNLV 

day = Friday and AF and season>2011 and 12>week>6 and -6>line>-24 and o:ats streak<2 and ats streak<1

3-14 ATS 

HF and day = Friday and season > 2010 and 12 > week > 5 and -3 > line > -18 and C and t:losses < 3 and o:wins!= 3

fade of Maryland in this situation is 2-16-2 ATS

 This season Thursday favorites are on a roll and Friday dogs are hot as well.  After last nights favorite streak continuing I feel at least a split of the B10 games will occur. 

Stay hot, bro!! Like a lot of your picks this week!

Posting on the NCAAF Covers threads is ..... 

All the best my friend....time to party a little on a Friday!

@OlDirtyBaztid

 glad to hear that! 

Thank you for stopping in and best wishes as always