I do think it's always a good idea to know who has what on deck, but not all look-aheads are created equal. There is, for example, exactly zero chance that Pitt is "looking past" Clemson with Miami on deck, or Ole Miss is looking past LSU at home toward a road date at Auburn. Just not a thing. LOL. Penn State and Michigan, however, are in classic look-ahead spots, and I would tread lightly with any of them (no matter how freaking bad Northwestern is). Fresno is in a tricky spot with the big game prior to a big game, and also off a bit of a phony win (potentially at least) at Wyoming, where they were actually out-gained while pitching a 17-0 shut-out.
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I do think it's always a good idea to know who has what on deck, but not all look-aheads are created equal. There is, for example, exactly zero chance that Pitt is "looking past" Clemson with Miami on deck, or Ole Miss is looking past LSU at home toward a road date at Auburn. Just not a thing. LOL. Penn State and Michigan, however, are in classic look-ahead spots, and I would tread lightly with any of them (no matter how freaking bad Northwestern is). Fresno is in a tricky spot with the big game prior to a big game, and also off a bit of a phony win (potentially at least) at Wyoming, where they were actually out-gained while pitching a 17-0 shut-out.
I do think it's always a good idea to know who has what on deck, but not all look-aheads are created equal. There is, for example, exactly zero chance that Pitt is "looking past" Clemson with Miami on deck, or Ole Miss is looking past LSU at home toward a road date at Auburn. Just not a thing. LOL. Penn State and Michigan, however, are in classic look-ahead spots, and I would tread lightly with any of them (no matter how freaking bad Northwestern is). Fresno is in a tricky spot with the big game prior to a big game, and also off a bit of a phony win (potentially at least) at Wyoming, where they were actually out-gained while pitching a 17-0 shut-out.
I very much appreciate your thoughts Maine. I don't tell all my thinking directly. I just want to put a few notes up so the masses know that there is a method and thought process to what I do. I am less a teacher and more line seeker and study teams based upon recent history, and present or future situations. You're right there is no way to know just based upon a schedule. High quality games take time to find. This has been quite a learning process for me to get to over a 60% record based upon 77 plays.
While I don't claim I will hit 60% every season I do expect that my ways to be +EV and have a nice ROI when all is said and done.
I take this much more serious then I let on. My record shows this.
Best wishes and thanks again
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
2
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:
I do think it's always a good idea to know who has what on deck, but not all look-aheads are created equal. There is, for example, exactly zero chance that Pitt is "looking past" Clemson with Miami on deck, or Ole Miss is looking past LSU at home toward a road date at Auburn. Just not a thing. LOL. Penn State and Michigan, however, are in classic look-ahead spots, and I would tread lightly with any of them (no matter how freaking bad Northwestern is). Fresno is in a tricky spot with the big game prior to a big game, and also off a bit of a phony win (potentially at least) at Wyoming, where they were actually out-gained while pitching a 17-0 shut-out.
I very much appreciate your thoughts Maine. I don't tell all my thinking directly. I just want to put a few notes up so the masses know that there is a method and thought process to what I do. I am less a teacher and more line seeker and study teams based upon recent history, and present or future situations. You're right there is no way to know just based upon a schedule. High quality games take time to find. This has been quite a learning process for me to get to over a 60% record based upon 77 plays.
While I don't claim I will hit 60% every season I do expect that my ways to be +EV and have a nice ROI when all is said and done.
I take this much more serious then I let on. My record shows this.
I used to do something similar - basically run all the games (there were probably 20% fewer back then) through a series of sieves that simply took certain games and situations out of play, and then take a hard look at whatever was left. It worked pretty well, when I had the discipline to stick to it. Looks like whatever you're doing is working just fine. Hope you keep it up.
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I used to do something similar - basically run all the games (there were probably 20% fewer back then) through a series of sieves that simply took certain games and situations out of play, and then take a hard look at whatever was left. It worked pretty well, when I had the discipline to stick to it. Looks like whatever you're doing is working just fine. Hope you keep it up.
I used to do something similar - basically run all the games (there were probably 20% fewer back then) through a series of sieves that simply took certain games and situations out of play, and then take a hard look at whatever was left. It worked pretty well, when I had the discipline to stick to it. Looks like whatever you're doing is working just fine. Hope you keep it up.
Again, thanks for the words much respect to you and your strong history here on covers.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:
I used to do something similar - basically run all the games (there were probably 20% fewer back then) through a series of sieves that simply took certain games and situations out of play, and then take a hard look at whatever was left. It worked pretty well, when I had the discipline to stick to it. Looks like whatever you're doing is working just fine. Hope you keep it up.
Again, thanks for the words much respect to you and your strong history here on covers.
Cstl @ App St. Memphis @ UCF Wash @ Ariz Cincy @ Navy Mary @ Minn NC St. @ Mia Fl.
FOX,FS1,FS2:
No.Westrn @ Mich Kansas St. @ Tex Tech Okla St. @ Iowa St. BYU @ Wash St. Nev @ Fresno
Sometimes I do consider CBS games but in general I find those games to be mostly SEC games. Nothing against those SEC games its just not a broad based network most often. I do pick and choose my spots on all networks but I like TV games that most people like to watch.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Sometimes being on TV matters. Here are some of the games that I have to weed out.
Cstl @ App St. Memphis @ UCF Wash @ Ariz Cincy @ Navy Mary @ Minn NC St. @ Mia Fl.
FOX,FS1,FS2:
No.Westrn @ Mich Kansas St. @ Tex Tech Okla St. @ Iowa St. BYU @ Wash St. Nev @ Fresno
Sometimes I do consider CBS games but in general I find those games to be mostly SEC games. Nothing against those SEC games its just not a broad based network most often. I do pick and choose my spots on all networks but I like TV games that most people like to watch.
@spottie2935 Cool, thanks. I'm trying to work on getting better with managing my bankroll to hopefully keep these big swings in check.
As you try and work through your own processes and learn what best makes you happy, I recommend one plays small bets and focus on the process and long term. Short term will bring you to the poor house.
Some/Most people think knowing the teams based upon offensive or defensive tendencies is ones most successful way to find winners. While of course watching and learning as much as we can is helpful, it is also very difficult to watch every game and even more difficult to know what is going to take place on the field.
I don't have have time to watch everything every week, my ways and processes, don't rely as much of what we all know and what we have all seen. There is way more then this to beat a bookie and a line. Beating a line is a science of it's own.
I don't use a power rating system for all teams like a Sagarin. I have a different way of evaluating lines or "Power Rankings " so to speak.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Quote Originally Posted by PapiChullo:
@spottie2935 Cool, thanks. I'm trying to work on getting better with managing my bankroll to hopefully keep these big swings in check.
As you try and work through your own processes and learn what best makes you happy, I recommend one plays small bets and focus on the process and long term. Short term will bring you to the poor house.
Some/Most people think knowing the teams based upon offensive or defensive tendencies is ones most successful way to find winners. While of course watching and learning as much as we can is helpful, it is also very difficult to watch every game and even more difficult to know what is going to take place on the field.
I don't have have time to watch everything every week, my ways and processes, don't rely as much of what we all know and what we have all seen. There is way more then this to beat a bookie and a line. Beating a line is a science of it's own.
I don't use a power rating system for all teams like a Sagarin. I have a different way of evaluating lines or "Power Rankings " so to speak.
APP ST defense is hot garbage. This line makes me raise on eyebrow. If CC plays there A game App St is getting blown out .. just a thought
Okay I understand your concerns on this one. I would say being at home might make a difference in App St. this week. MIGHT!
I was on ULL and last week not many were with me on that game either. I am not one to OVERLY concern myself with what took place on the field last week or what might also happen this week. I am hunting lines according to what did happen last week or this season or maybe as far back a few seasons ago. YES ! a few seasons ago matters. Arkansas is , and has been, a relevant team that resonates to this. A few seasons ago they were trash. Last Season they were never favorites. This season is vastly improved but ae also getting in to growing pains as far as lines.
There are a few teams like Arkansas and the opposite that are having down seasons. I am aware and seeking to exploit these teams as they get into good or bad situations.
I have 29 failures this season so according to my history Cstl has a 40% chance of winning here. Did you think Liberty had a chance is losing last week ? Yea that's a bit extreme and hindsight.
Point is, Line? Situation? Schedule? All of these and other important key out of the box factors have taken me to these levels. On the field App St. are good, a quality home team. Off a bad loss. Playing for the top spot in the division. Don't trash on them for a semi bad scheduling situation in which they were AWAY favorites to a good team (ULL).
App St. is in a Completely different game this week. Have a short memory, and think big picture. Hope we see a Different well motivated App St. team in front of their home crowd. All they have to do is stay within +3 and I win. Lots can happen.
+3 not enough. You see my pick, if Cstl gets an early lead try the in game line. My best guess is this close and Cstl's last huge test before the bowl. If they are to lose this is the best chance, unless of course they sleep walk in the future.
Division Title up for grabs
This is more then I like to disclose but appreciate you guys stopping in.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
1
Quote Originally Posted by Teaser78:
APP ST defense is hot garbage. This line makes me raise on eyebrow. If CC plays there A game App St is getting blown out .. just a thought
Okay I understand your concerns on this one. I would say being at home might make a difference in App St. this week. MIGHT!
I was on ULL and last week not many were with me on that game either. I am not one to OVERLY concern myself with what took place on the field last week or what might also happen this week. I am hunting lines according to what did happen last week or this season or maybe as far back a few seasons ago. YES ! a few seasons ago matters. Arkansas is , and has been, a relevant team that resonates to this. A few seasons ago they were trash. Last Season they were never favorites. This season is vastly improved but ae also getting in to growing pains as far as lines.
There are a few teams like Arkansas and the opposite that are having down seasons. I am aware and seeking to exploit these teams as they get into good or bad situations.
I have 29 failures this season so according to my history Cstl has a 40% chance of winning here. Did you think Liberty had a chance is losing last week ? Yea that's a bit extreme and hindsight.
Point is, Line? Situation? Schedule? All of these and other important key out of the box factors have taken me to these levels. On the field App St. are good, a quality home team. Off a bad loss. Playing for the top spot in the division. Don't trash on them for a semi bad scheduling situation in which they were AWAY favorites to a good team (ULL).
App St. is in a Completely different game this week. Have a short memory, and think big picture. Hope we see a Different well motivated App St. team in front of their home crowd. All they have to do is stay within +3 and I win. Lots can happen.
+3 not enough. You see my pick, if Cstl gets an early lead try the in game line. My best guess is this close and Cstl's last huge test before the bowl. If they are to lose this is the best chance, unless of course they sleep walk in the future.
Division Title up for grabs
This is more then I like to disclose but appreciate you guys stopping in.
I have no idea why App St. had their head up their butts last week but I feel pretty strongly a solid home effort is on tap. Will that happen? They are going to need a few calls or bounces, but the same can be said for Cstl.
Thats the gamble
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
I have no idea why App St. had their head up their butts last week but I feel pretty strongly a solid home effort is on tap. Will that happen? They are going to need a few calls or bounces, but the same can be said for Cstl.
Last week one can pick apart my bad plays/gambles but the big picture was what I call perfect.
Navy and Central Florida were terrible, ASU couldn't/ didn't score in the second half, Okie St. came back nicely. Got a great line on Indiana to get the push. Vir Tech was lifeless against a quality team. All this stuff is going to happen. Big picture, stay the course and find the best games.
Great calls on UCLA and Air Force in the late games against tough home teams. Air Force found a way in a stadium they have a horrible history in.
Louisiana Lafayette +3.5
Navy +11
Syracuse +14
Cal +14
Min 4
Cent. Florida +21
Okla State +5
Okst /Texas under 61
Auburn +3.5
Indiana +5 push
E.Mich +1
Purdue +12.5
Virg Tech +5.5
Troy-7
Colorado -6.5
UCLA PICK
AIR F +3.5
ASU +1.5
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Last week one can pick apart my bad plays/gambles but the big picture was what I call perfect.
Navy and Central Florida were terrible, ASU couldn't/ didn't score in the second half, Okie St. came back nicely. Got a great line on Indiana to get the push. Vir Tech was lifeless against a quality team. All this stuff is going to happen. Big picture, stay the course and find the best games.
Last week I gambled on ULL that their schedule was a bit soft and they were doing just enough to get the jobs done. They were home dogs in a huge game with no real opponent on deck. There wasnt much to love about the history of ULL this season, but I figured last weeks game was the wake up call they needed. Sure it paid off, but I was on the right side and made an out of the box call on what looked like a sleepy team. Being at home helped and a nice line in a big game paid off for me. Too bad there are not as many games like this is a wide spread and diverse league.
Not all favorites are trustworthy based upon recent history.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Last week I gambled on ULL that their schedule was a bit soft and they were doing just enough to get the jobs done. They were home dogs in a huge game with no real opponent on deck. There wasnt much to love about the history of ULL this season, but I figured last weeks game was the wake up call they needed. Sure it paid off, but I was on the right side and made an out of the box call on what looked like a sleepy team. Being at home helped and a nice line in a big game paid off for me. Too bad there are not as many games like this is a wide spread and diverse league.
Not all favorites are trustworthy based upon recent history.
What do you like/not like about games on TV? Or rather what metrics/info causes you to weed them out? Just curiosity from a small time bettor...
Eliminate big lines on dogs or take those big favorites. I prefer to stay away from big favorites and top ranked teams. The reason for that is finding line fluctuation. Taking Alabama is profitable but when I bet them i get stomped for some reason. Not specifically Alabama just an example.
If one such high ranked team is a favorite every week how does one know when they are going to have a bad game. Hard to detect a good line from a bad one. Same goes for a dog that is a dog every week. What's a good line +5 against a poor team or +30 after a loss that could have covered and now playing a division leader.
Clemson is interesting this week. Not a lot of people I have read trust them at all. I am a Clemson fader this season until I see spots like finally they are getting to be a dog. I play underdogs most often but I will probably stay away this week. Within their future scheduling an opportunity to back them may appear.
Past teams like Clemson LSU, Current teams like Alabama Georgia. Back them or stay away.
TV games are supposed to be competitive or not a lot of people would tune in.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
2
Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik:
What do you like/not like about games on TV? Or rather what metrics/info causes you to weed them out? Just curiosity from a small time bettor...
Eliminate big lines on dogs or take those big favorites. I prefer to stay away from big favorites and top ranked teams. The reason for that is finding line fluctuation. Taking Alabama is profitable but when I bet them i get stomped for some reason. Not specifically Alabama just an example.
If one such high ranked team is a favorite every week how does one know when they are going to have a bad game. Hard to detect a good line from a bad one. Same goes for a dog that is a dog every week. What's a good line +5 against a poor team or +30 after a loss that could have covered and now playing a division leader.
Clemson is interesting this week. Not a lot of people I have read trust them at all. I am a Clemson fader this season until I see spots like finally they are getting to be a dog. I play underdogs most often but I will probably stay away this week. Within their future scheduling an opportunity to back them may appear.
Past teams like Clemson LSU, Current teams like Alabama Georgia. Back them or stay away.
TV games are supposed to be competitive or not a lot of people would tune in.
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