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Week 8, 46-29-2 ATS

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Posted: #51

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Whats the angle behind the Wyoming O40?

 

WYO:

played 2 very difficult opponents last 2 this is not!  This is one of those games where WYO could carry the total by themselves.  NMX QB is questionable and WYO's Defense is decent but the last 2 games being so low scoring for WYO this could (I expect it to be) an easy over.

 

WYO can hang 50 and 42 on 2 MAC schools they should score here too. 

 

Big lines can cover easy that means the first half could be a blowout early. Covering -20 you would think 17-0 MINIMUM half-time, but I expect at least 21 or 24.

 

I don't usually play team totals, so I just thought of it but the WYO team total makes a lot of sense too.

 

Good luck this week Train and thanks for the question. peace_5

 

 

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Posted: #52

Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Whats the angle behind the Wyoming O40?   WYO: played 2 very difficult opponents last 2 this is not!  This is one of those games where WYO could carry the total by themselves.  NMX QB is questionable and WYO's Defense is decent but the last 2 games being so low scoring for WYO this could (I expect it to be) an easy over.   WYO can hang 50 and 42 on 2 MAC schools they should score here too.    Big lines can cover easy that means the first half could be a blowout early. Covering -20 you would think 17-0 MINIMUM half-time, but I expect at least 21 or 24.   I don't usually play team totals, so I just thought of it but the WYO team total makes a lot of sense too.   Good luck this week Train and thanks for the question.

 

Heritage 1st Half line 21.5 which makes no sense and the masses only see the last 2 games from WYO.  Big picture is they can score against a poor team.  NMX QB is banged up but in a lot of cases these bottom teams can blunder the other team to score easy TD's. 

 

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Posted: #53

NMX also played 2 great teams the last 3 weeks WYO is good but I don't have them a favorite over AFA SDST or CSU.  CSU is debatable though. 

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Posted: #54

Good luck this week Spottie

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Posted: #55

@gambling-devil

 Thanks gambling-devil best wishes to you an_cheers

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Posted: #56

One of my systems is having a very strong season:

DC and n:FC and season>1996 and n:line<-3 and ats streak<3  and week<11  and division=1A  and line<=28 and line>=3
 
ATS:626-430-26 (2.73, 59.3%) 
 
Indicated plays based upon a line of +3 or more:YTD=18-11 ATS 
 
again these teams, lines, must be +3 or more to be at its best. Using current lines 
 
Appalachian St.  +4
 
Clemson +3.5
 
Miami-Oh +5
 
Toledo +2 only no play as of now but if it hits +3 by close it becomes active. 
 
San Diego St +3.5
 
Oregon +2.5 not active yet.
 
There are 4 plays as of now I feel strongly about 2-2 or 3-1 here. 
 
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Posted: #57

plays :

 

App St +4

Tulane +13.5

San Jose St -5

Utah St. +3.5

Virginia Tech -3

Toledo +2.5

Wyoming over 40

San Diego St. +3.5

Indiana +20

Georgia Tech +7

USC +7

Miami -Oh +5 

 

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Posted: #58

I am leaving Pitt/ Clemson off my lists even though on paper it qualifies.  No reason to force a play. 

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Posted: #59

YTD:47-29

This week 1-0

plays :

 

App St +4moneybag

 

Always nice to get the first one in.  Lot of ppl think the refs had too big an influence and they did but its a hard game and they could lose control too.  I am sure If I went back and looked I lost on a few bad call this season.

Tulane +13.5

San Jose St -5

Utah St. +3.5

Virginia Tech -3

Toledo +2.5

Wyoming over 40

San Diego St. +3.5

Indiana +20

Georgia Tech +7

USC +7

Miami -Oh +5 

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Posted: #60

Transparent and logical. peace_5

 
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Posted: #61

Quote Originally Posted by Old_Tymer:

Transparent and logical.

 

Thanks OT and best wishes this weekpeace_5

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Posted: #62

Great call.

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Posted: #63

@IncognitoZR

 Thanks much a bit fortunate but win or lose they all count.  

best wishes this week peace_5

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Posted: #64

@spottie2935 an_2drinks

Nice call on App St mah manan_clap

jumpy

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Posted: #65

an_cheers

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Posted: #66

Stay hot Spot!

 
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Posted: #67

Congrats on tonight bro. one of the few of us who called this one early an_cheers I think you even beat me to the punch wit that 3.5... 
peace_5

 
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Posted: #68

@spottie2935

 peace_5

 
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Posted: #69

@Macwestie1

 

@gambling-devil

 

@Bspalding

 

@GENERALWIZDOM

 

Thanks everyone best wishes this week an_cheers

 

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Posted: #70

Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:

I have no idea why App St. had their head up their butts last week but I feel pretty strongly a solid home effort is on tap.  Will that happen?  They are going to need a few calls or bounces, but the same can be said for  Cstl.     Thats the gamble

 

Pretty much what I thought

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Posted: #71

Quote Originally Posted by GENERALWIZDOM:

We agree on Appy. I took the +4.... saw it went to 4.5.... doubled my bet and hit it again.    Im a guy who bets AGAINST perceptions. Last week Appy was PERCIEVED to be the better team. I knew that ULL was actually favored in that game -6 in GOY lines.... but PERCEPTION made them 5.5 point dawgs.  Also knew that this game was on deck for Appy and most likely would be their focus. revenge spot for a game they should have won last year (they were leading 23-20 at the 3:00 mark in the 4th.... outgained Coastal and won time of possession.

I think I missed this post.  Good call and I kinda do the same as you.   AGAINST perceptions and with motivation are my friends. 

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Posted: #72

Yeah it was a brilliant bait. The line movement was suspect too considering the public pounding CC.

I'm always weary about weekday games along with road games. I love Coastal, but if the book is that bullish on app St's offense then I can't ignore that. I did live TT 25.5 for App but I didn't think they'd win outright. 

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Posted: #73

Just watch the weather in the WYO/UNM game. 25+ winds 

 
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Posted: #74

Spottie I know you are feeling great after that App pick. Way to go and thanks for the Great call!

moneybagmoneybagmoneybagmoneybagmoneybag

 
 
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Posted: #75

Quote Originally Posted by IncognitoZR:

Yeah it was a brilliant bait. The line movement was suspect too considering the public pounding CC. I'm always weary about weekday games along with road games. I love Coastal, but if the book is that bullish on app St's offense then I can't ignore that. I did live TT 25.5 for App but I didn't think they'd win outright.

 

glad you keep on your toes.  On to the next winner.  Best wishes peace_5

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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