WEEK 9

Thoughts on Clemson/Boston College over 61?

deezdonks - not much there really.....

  *can GT : DISRUPT ND O / EXPLOIT any weakness on D ? > NO / NO it looks like

  * does Irish HC BK prepare his team well in this type of SPOT? (play well before huge game) > looks like they have done well mostly in recent years

       $$ maybe wait and look for a 2H play - GT is TURRIBLE in the 1H (outscored 168-62).....looks like a great time for Irish to get up early.... maybe fall asleep late ?  BOL.........

TRAIN- what eggzactly has LSU done?....would be my question, as the road favorite.... vs a home dog that (should) be able to RUN. If Auburn can't run they might be in trouble sure.....as LSU is disruptive as always.

BUT... check out the huge numbers they're giving up

  Mizzou #98 O (SP+) - 8.6/play - 5.5/rush

  SCaro #80 - 7.9/play - 5.8/rush

  Miss St #69 - 8.3/play

       * note SC - 5.1/play vs Vols ....3.96 vs Fla (see that Wheels ha)....4.4 vs Auburn

       * Mizzou - 4.4/play vs Bama...5.5 vs Vols....4.6 vs Kentucky

Pass D stinks as well....vs those 3 : 66% - 10 TD / 3 INT - 10.8 / att !!!

IMO.... big home / nite game W over SCaro is no buy sign for LSU.... more like a bad spot for SC....LSU is improved, but Auburn the better overall team looks like to me.....could go either way sure......... 

URBAN - looks low don't it?.... off half-azz effort vs the Cuse.....wouldn't surprise me if they dialed up a big defensive effort vs BC. Either way maybe Clemson TT over a safer play ?..........

I could see Boston College putting up 20pts as they obviously are going to try to throw the ball, but that Clemson defense can be scary and Venables might as you said turn them loose this game, but then again they have Notre Dame on deck. Team total very well could be a safer play. How much do you think playing Notre Dame next week will play into this game for Clemson? 

@themaceo

 Id be careful with that game looks really trapping.  No way state should be the underdog in this matchup they are 4-1 with two underdog wins where they should have been underdogs.  But for them to be underdogs here i just dont see how.  State beat texas tech which west virginia lost too.  

@Urbanwildlife

 thats a lock there!!!!!! 

I was already leaning to Clem doesn't F around here .. Hard to know what's going on with their lineup, lotta guys in and out all year ..

Personnel stuff aside I see many times Venebles closes a show out strong and no chance he didn't notice Cuse put up a few scores on them ..  maybe we see Clem starters pulled early on O if they're up but think Brent spanks his D this week and they got a strong built in advantage besides talent here... BC just a full on one dimensional team... and not like they're not trying to run the ball... 35 rushes vs Pitt for 100 yds was a better game for them .. but if we add in all the Pitt sacks its their usual: 41 att's for 60 yds .. And sure they had a real breakout run game last week vs GT with leading rusher Bailey and backup combining going for 130 YDS!!! .. but on 30 carries tho.. best day ever RB's get under 5/carry .. Jerkovic rally the one who made the run game tick getting 100 yds rushing and would guess most of that was him able to roll out and find empty space, I doubt he had too many real designed runs .. does seem like a QB can rush on Clem.. Brennan Armstrong or D'Eric King.... Jerko not in that class .... GT been dominated by run attacks all year, all QB's found some success vs them sans FSU.. GT only 11 sacks in 6 games .. 3 of those vs Noles .. only team this year to not sack jerko .. Pitt sacked him 6 times, even duke w 6... totally one dimensional team and stays that way vs really strong run D.. 

Clem's rush d, pass rush, coverage near tops .. BC with the TE and one other legit target to cover ... pass game can also go 'poof' pretty quick .. Unless there's a real need for roster rest then thinking clem shuts this run down real easy and prob has a field day on Jerko .. Worst case scenario is we finally see what BC's backup QB's look like if Jerko sidelined or BC down big ... Jerko taking 100% of the snaps this year.. even last game blowout win takes all the snaps .. that would be a really bad scenario for them.. 

Checking how Clem does in this spot .. say start in 2014 when clem started playing champ level ball, reg ssn only, no FCS teamrankings data.. 
Spot: Clem opponent covers their TT by over a TD ..

Opponent TT's in the next game:

Since '14  5-10-1
Since '15  3-8-1
Since '16  1-5-1
Since '16: ... Avg opp score is 17 pts... in that spot 8.7 points..  

All Clem home game in that spot since 2014... I count Opp TT's at 1-6-1.. 

Clem line is already off the charts at 30.5/31 .. doesn't seem like that will go much higher, I suppose it could but think folks cognizient ND game on deck ... Total at 60 right now .. the supposed ticket counters saying 2/3 bets on the under which I find hard to believe but don't think it really moved down maybe from 61 .. thinking some Clem gunna kill'em money shows up in some late total over bets for sure .... BC implied TT now at 14.5 .. might take it...  if spread stays same and total really gets punched up late then  maybe get it to 17?.. would def take it .. 

I find it hard to play the Clemson games as they are extremely dependent on just how hard they are going to try. Most of their games they can win by whatever they want to. That's hard for me to handicap, and thus a no play for me. Same way with a lot of Alabama games.

Thank you for the efforts as usual Bridge 1!

Thoughts on tonight's games, BA?

Watching Clemson with Covid now.  Is Lawrence worth 10 points to his team?  Hard to believe he is worth that much to a team as deep as Clemson

sorry boys..... extra busy and old this week

Boise -9'

Kan St +3'

SDSU -7

Wyoming +1

Houston +3'

NW +4

TCU P

Navy +14'

Auburn +3

Louisville +10 / over 59'

Clemson -24

Duke P / Rice +11 / ULL -6

leans    Kentucky TT under    Miss St    Duke     Penn St    A&M

Clemson - typically 7 points when a player like that goes out.... adjusted around the key #

   $ No interest in Clemson at 31 with TL ... like them now at 24 with DJ Ukelele ha...... Great / well coached teams will usually step up their play when a top player is out .... increases THEIR focus / intensity.... creates a distraction for opponent

IF, he doesn't play vs Irish....will be looking to play ND

don't even want to..... but have to add smaller play-

Michigan -21

   *  Sparty  should be terrible early....maybe a 'play on' later