20 + FG = 23 pts = 3 TD + 2 2-pts conversion + 1 extra point
In case Hawaii misses on of the 2 points conversion, they are will not have enough for 23 points.
19 + FG = 22 pts = 3 TD + 2 2-pts conversion
Hawaii just need to make 2 2-pts conversion out of three tries.
If Hawaii can actually score TDs, they will attempt onside kicks giving Tulsa short field for at least one cheap FG (out of three onside kicks) therefore going for (1) getting 20 points with the plan of getting at least 1 FG is the right call (at least to me).
GD... let's hope you were just tired when you typed this up... cuz you are about to get ripped pretty severely by Van on this one...
the fact that Tulsa was likely to score 1 more FG actually is an argument in favor of going for 2 pts instead of 1...
1) if Tulsa gets the 2 pointer, plus a FG, they are up by 24... that's 3 TDs plus 3 2 pt conversion...
2) if Tulsa doesn't get the 2 pointer, but gets a FG, they are up by 22... still requires 3 TDs plus a 2 pointer (which Hawaii would save for their last TD, making it do or die)...
3) there is virtually no difference between 22 and 23... both scenarios require 3 TDs, and at least 1 2-pointer, but not more than 2 2-pointers... so your two scenarios above create a very weak argument... given the likelihood (as you suggest) that Tulsa would get 1 more FG...
4) without an extra Tulsa FG, we are back to the (a) 19 or (b) 20 scenario, where your argument above actually DOES come into play... now Hawaii needs to convert either (a) 3 TDs plus at least 2 XPs, or (b) 2 TDs + 2 2-pt conversions... (that is where it becomes a problem)... not to mention tacking on another FG (i.e. a 3rd score)...
bottom line... the answer to Vanzack's original question is... "the chart!"... the chart tells coaches to go for 1 pt in that situation... but the chart, as i pointed out, is idiotic! coaches that are bound to the chart have issues with their ability to discern game situations...
this is a risk-reward issue... the risk of only being up by 19 instead of 21 (where Hawaii still needs 3 possessions, and needs to convert 2 out of 2 2-pt conversions), is out-weighed by the reward of converting the 2-pointer and forcing Hawaii to have to score 3 TDs with 3 extra points to tie the game...
i will say it isn't a black-and-white obvious situation... but i think the chart is the reason the coach did it, and that is a really bad reason...