I'm stunned you think your're correct. If it's 12 OK. But not 19, if you suggested this to any NFL coach they would laugh you off the field. Now we're chasing points up DD?
This would only be true if ICAP is an NFL coach.
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:
I'm stunned you think your're correct. If it's 12 OK. But not 19, if you suggested this to any NFL coach they would laugh you off the field. Now we're chasing points up DD?
By the way dipshit - and to your dipshit butt buddy Train - here is the chart. In fact, I challenge you to find any chart out there that says not to go for it up by 19 with 7 mins left.
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By the way dipshit - and to your dipshit butt buddy Train - here is the chart. In fact, I challenge you to find any chart out there that says not to go for it up by 19 with 7 mins left.
Charts 1 and 3 are a joke.....but I will give you Chart 2 based on probability with the time consideration (assuming its accurate, didn't have time, nor am I in the condition at the moment to authenticate the figures)
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Charts 1 and 3 are a joke.....but I will give you Chart 2 based on probability with the time consideration (assuming its accurate, didn't have time, nor am I in the condition at the moment to authenticate the figures)
Charts 1 and 3 are a joke.....but I will give you Chart 2 based on probability with the time consideration (assuming its accurate, didn't have time, nor am I in the condition at the moment to authenticate the figures)
Thats a pretty lame apology.
I will wait, I dont want my christmas ruined. You attacked unprovoked. You may hate me, but you picked the wrong debate to prove it.
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Quote Originally Posted by ICAPSports:
Charts 1 and 3 are a joke.....but I will give you Chart 2 based on probability with the time consideration (assuming its accurate, didn't have time, nor am I in the condition at the moment to authenticate the figures)
Thats a pretty lame apology.
I will wait, I dont want my christmas ruined. You attacked unprovoked. You may hate me, but you picked the wrong debate to prove it.
didnt know they had charts for these... like blackjack.
i just assumed always try to get to a major number 14, or 21, just not early.
but then again, late in the 4th, up 19, maybe you dont want to rub it in, but after what vick did last week, you can never be too sure.
Chart 2 is the real chart. Chart 1 and 3 and "common sense" charts, mostly generalized.
But chart 2 is probability based and the real deal.
So the case of being up by 19 with 7 mins left - you should go for it if you have a 24% chance of making it. Tulsa is probably 70% from before the penalty, and 80% after.
It was a true no brainer, defended by 2 no brainers (train and ICAP).
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Quote Originally Posted by deegen:
didnt know they had charts for these... like blackjack.
i just assumed always try to get to a major number 14, or 21, just not early.
but then again, late in the 4th, up 19, maybe you dont want to rub it in, but after what vick did last week, you can never be too sure.
Chart 2 is the real chart. Chart 1 and 3 and "common sense" charts, mostly generalized.
But chart 2 is probability based and the real deal.
So the case of being up by 19 with 7 mins left - you should go for it if you have a 24% chance of making it. Tulsa is probably 70% from before the penalty, and 80% after.
It was a true no brainer, defended by 2 no brainers (train and ICAP).
Charts one and 3 are meaningless because you don't go for 2 up 12 in the 2nd quarter. The 2nd is interesting but still it's all common sense. Football isn't played strictly to %'s. You know the correct mathematical move is to never punt. Some professor deemed it doesn't matter if it's 4 and 5 from your own 10 yard line you should go for it everytime and was able to prove it from a mathematical and logical standpoint. He wrote the thesis and gave it Belichick who loved it and is the reason he goes for it on 4th down so much. It's not as black and white as you make it sound.
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Charts one and 3 are meaningless because you don't go for 2 up 12 in the 2nd quarter. The 2nd is interesting but still it's all common sense. Football isn't played strictly to %'s. You know the correct mathematical move is to never punt. Some professor deemed it doesn't matter if it's 4 and 5 from your own 10 yard line you should go for it everytime and was able to prove it from a mathematical and logical standpoint. He wrote the thesis and gave it Belichick who loved it and is the reason he goes for it on 4th down so much. It's not as black and white as you make it sound.
Charts one and 3 are meaningless because you don't go for 2 up 12 in the 2nd quarter. The 2nd is interesting but still it's all common sense. Football isn't played strictly to %'s. You know the correct mathematical move is to never punt. Some professor deemed it doesn't matter if it's 4 and 5 from your own 10 yard line you should go for it everytime and was able to prove it from a mathematical and logical standpoint. He wrote the thesis and gave it Belichick who loved it and is the reason he goes for it on 4th down so much. It's not as black and white as you make it sound.
165 - I like you - and respect you. My fun above was mostly directed at the 2 no brainers, not you.
But Im telling you, this is a no brainer. Not in the 2nd qtr, but clearly with 7 mins left. That chart is really good and really interesting because of the introduction of time and percentages.
If you look at the chart, you will see that the 19 point line is some of the lowest percentages on the whole chart.
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:
Charts one and 3 are meaningless because you don't go for 2 up 12 in the 2nd quarter. The 2nd is interesting but still it's all common sense. Football isn't played strictly to %'s. You know the correct mathematical move is to never punt. Some professor deemed it doesn't matter if it's 4 and 5 from your own 10 yard line you should go for it everytime and was able to prove it from a mathematical and logical standpoint. He wrote the thesis and gave it Belichick who loved it and is the reason he goes for it on 4th down so much. It's not as black and white as you make it sound.
165 - I like you - and respect you. My fun above was mostly directed at the 2 no brainers, not you.
But Im telling you, this is a no brainer. Not in the 2nd qtr, but clearly with 7 mins left. That chart is really good and really interesting because of the introduction of time and percentages.
If you look at the chart, you will see that the 19 point line is some of the lowest percentages on the whole chart.
May Santa Claus bring Train and ICAP a brain for Christmas, or at least a math textbook.
Merry Christmas all!! Im off to feed the starving orphans a meal, and then spread 100 dollar bills around to all of the less fortunate who listen to morons at covers.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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May Santa Claus bring Train and ICAP a brain for Christmas, or at least a math textbook.
Merry Christmas all!! Im off to feed the starving orphans a meal, and then spread 100 dollar bills around to all of the less fortunate who listen to morons at covers.
165 - I like you - and respect you. My fun above was mostly directed at the 2 no brainers, not you.
But Im telling you, this is a no brainer. Not in the 2nd qtr, but clearly with 7 mins left. That chart is really good and really interesting because of the introduction of time and percentages.
If you look at the chart, you will see that the 19 point line is some of the lowest percentages on the whole chart.
If I'm wrong I will be the first to admit it. I have to really go over and look at that chart because it is interesting and haven't seen anything like that from a time perspective. I will bump this later if I feel I am wrong .
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
165 - I like you - and respect you. My fun above was mostly directed at the 2 no brainers, not you.
But Im telling you, this is a no brainer. Not in the 2nd qtr, but clearly with 7 mins left. That chart is really good and really interesting because of the introduction of time and percentages.
If you look at the chart, you will see that the 19 point line is some of the lowest percentages on the whole chart.
If I'm wrong I will be the first to admit it. I have to really go over and look at that chart because it is interesting and haven't seen anything like that from a time perspective. I will bump this later if I feel I am wrong .
165 - I like you - and respect you. My fun above was mostly directed at the 2 no brainers, not you.
But Im telling you, this is a no brainer. Not in the 2nd qtr, but clearly with 7 mins left. That chart is really good and really interesting because of the introduction of time and percentages.
If you look at the chart, you will see that the 19 point line is some of the lowest percentages on the whole chart.
Yep no brainer here. Just winning in every sport this year and killing it in college bball, bowl games and the NFL the past 6 weeks. Good luck finding someone with a better all around record than me thats posted.No big deal i'm sure to an average capper like yourself
Glad you can google "when to go for 2 charts". Pretty impressive stuff. Yet somehow the man with the job title "coach" decided not to do it. Thats weird, since you know more than him (hell, everybody for that matter) The percentage of making the extra point (requiring Hawaii to score almost as many touchdowns in 7 minutes to win as they had in the entire game) was almost 100%. Based on the game situation and how the defense was playing making Hawaii score 3tds to win was the correct play.
Have a good xmas Van. Hope you bowl season gets better than even (good thing you didnt play your lean on Hawaii).
If you have spare time, google "gray area" and "street smarts". Brushing up on those 2 will help you in the future.
Me, the no brainer, is gonna go count my money from my 3-0 day.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
165 - I like you - and respect you. My fun above was mostly directed at the 2 no brainers, not you.
But Im telling you, this is a no brainer. Not in the 2nd qtr, but clearly with 7 mins left. That chart is really good and really interesting because of the introduction of time and percentages.
If you look at the chart, you will see that the 19 point line is some of the lowest percentages on the whole chart.
Yep no brainer here. Just winning in every sport this year and killing it in college bball, bowl games and the NFL the past 6 weeks. Good luck finding someone with a better all around record than me thats posted.No big deal i'm sure to an average capper like yourself
Glad you can google "when to go for 2 charts". Pretty impressive stuff. Yet somehow the man with the job title "coach" decided not to do it. Thats weird, since you know more than him (hell, everybody for that matter) The percentage of making the extra point (requiring Hawaii to score almost as many touchdowns in 7 minutes to win as they had in the entire game) was almost 100%. Based on the game situation and how the defense was playing making Hawaii score 3tds to win was the correct play.
Have a good xmas Van. Hope you bowl season gets better than even (good thing you didnt play your lean on Hawaii).
If you have spare time, google "gray area" and "street smarts". Brushing up on those 2 will help you in the future.
Me, the no brainer, is gonna go count my money from my 3-0 day.
Yep no brainer here. Just winning in every sport this year and killing it in college bball, bowl games and the NFL the past 6 weeks. Good luck finding someone with a better all around record than me thats posted.No big deal i'm sure to an average capper like yourself
Glad you can google "when to go for 2 charts". Pretty impressive stuff. Yet somehow the man with the job title "coach" decided not to do it. Thats weird, since you know more than him (hell, everybody for that matter) The percentage of making the extra point (requiring Hawaii to score almost as many touchdowns in 7 minutes to win as they had in the entire game) was almost 100%. Based on the game situation and how the defense was playing making Hawaii score 3tds to win was the correct play.
Have a good xmas Van. Hope you bowl season gets better than even (good thing you didnt play your lean on Hawaii).
If you have spare time, google "gray area" and "street smarts". Brushing up on those 2 will help you in the future.
Me, the no brainer, is gonna go count my money from my 3-0 day.
When you lose an argument, change the subject.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Yep no brainer here. Just winning in every sport this year and killing it in college bball, bowl games and the NFL the past 6 weeks. Good luck finding someone with a better all around record than me thats posted.No big deal i'm sure to an average capper like yourself
Glad you can google "when to go for 2 charts". Pretty impressive stuff. Yet somehow the man with the job title "coach" decided not to do it. Thats weird, since you know more than him (hell, everybody for that matter) The percentage of making the extra point (requiring Hawaii to score almost as many touchdowns in 7 minutes to win as they had in the entire game) was almost 100%. Based on the game situation and how the defense was playing making Hawaii score 3tds to win was the correct play.
Have a good xmas Van. Hope you bowl season gets better than even (good thing you didnt play your lean on Hawaii).
If you have spare time, google "gray area" and "street smarts". Brushing up on those 2 will help you in the future.
Me, the no brainer, is gonna go count my money from my 3-0 day.
Van is absolutely 100% correct. You go for two up 19, especially after the penalty. The fact that you are even questioning this goes to show your football IQ is very low.
By kicking an extra point and going up 20, three touchdowns beats you. By going for two and coverting, three touchdowns ties you. If you miss the two and lead by 19, you then need to be victim of two touchdowns, two two-point conversions and a field goal in seven minutes and even then you still aren't losing.
The only scenario that includes a regulation loss is kicking the extra point.
It never ceases to amaze me how people bet on sports with so little understanding of the game. But then again if the head coach can't figure it out why should you people.
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Van is absolutely 100% correct. You go for two up 19, especially after the penalty. The fact that you are even questioning this goes to show your football IQ is very low.
By kicking an extra point and going up 20, three touchdowns beats you. By going for two and coverting, three touchdowns ties you. If you miss the two and lead by 19, you then need to be victim of two touchdowns, two two-point conversions and a field goal in seven minutes and even then you still aren't losing.
The only scenario that includes a regulation loss is kicking the extra point.
It never ceases to amaze me how people bet on sports with so little understanding of the game. But then again if the head coach can't figure it out why should you people.
There was no argument because I'm right. If you can read, the heart of my last post was referring to your question and yet you have no response. They got charts for blackjack too and I dont know on esingle professional blackjack player. Problem is, neither chart takes into account things it has no way of knowing. Injuries/momentum/gut feel etc. This is why you can talk a good game bro but have no real substance, which is also why you will never be better than a .500 capper. Same subject, different chapter.
Pretty tough when you beat in your own thread bro.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
When you lose an argument, change the subject.
There was no argument because I'm right. If you can read, the heart of my last post was referring to your question and yet you have no response. They got charts for blackjack too and I dont know on esingle professional blackjack player. Problem is, neither chart takes into account things it has no way of knowing. Injuries/momentum/gut feel etc. This is why you can talk a good game bro but have no real substance, which is also why you will never be better than a .500 capper. Same subject, different chapter.
Pretty tough when you beat in your own thread bro.
TULSA kicked the extra point to reduce the risk of injury. It's like the end of the Titans/INDY game. Is it worth it to risk injury going for two when TULSA have already won the game?
Seriously zack why don't you go apply for a nfl/ncaaf coaching job? I am sure with your superior knowledge of clock management and probability, you will be a hall of famer in no time.
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TULSA kicked the extra point to reduce the risk of injury. It's like the end of the Titans/INDY game. Is it worth it to risk injury going for two when TULSA have already won the game?
Seriously zack why don't you go apply for a nfl/ncaaf coaching job? I am sure with your superior knowledge of clock management and probability, you will be a hall of famer in no time.
There was no argument because I'm right. If you can read, the heart of my last post was referring to your question and yet you have no response. They got charts for blackjack too and I dont know on esingle professional blackjack player. Problem is, neither chart takes into account things it has no way of knowing. Injuries/momentum/gut feel etc. This is why you can talk a good game bro but have no real substance, which is also why you will never be better than a .500 capper. Same subject, different chapter.
Pretty tough when you beat in your own thread bro.
OK. You winl You beat the chart, no - you beat every chart, and you beat every other coach who ever went for it in that exact situation.
Your stance is that because the coach didnt do it, it is right. OK. Whatever.
And your argument is hilarious - the situation of the game is why they didnt do it. In fact, the situation of that game makes it even more of an argument to go for it considering the pace of scoring. You dont even know when your choice of stance works against you.
This 500 capper at least knows what probability is, and how to apply it. Maybe that is what makes you so great at capping - the ability to think outside of math - but I think I will stick with it.
And if 500 capping can make you a living for 8 years running now without a real job, and also make 2010 my most profitable (by far), then maybe you should start inquiring about the secrets of us 500 cappers.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
There was no argument because I'm right. If you can read, the heart of my last post was referring to your question and yet you have no response. They got charts for blackjack too and I dont know on esingle professional blackjack player. Problem is, neither chart takes into account things it has no way of knowing. Injuries/momentum/gut feel etc. This is why you can talk a good game bro but have no real substance, which is also why you will never be better than a .500 capper. Same subject, different chapter.
Pretty tough when you beat in your own thread bro.
OK. You winl You beat the chart, no - you beat every chart, and you beat every other coach who ever went for it in that exact situation.
Your stance is that because the coach didnt do it, it is right. OK. Whatever.
And your argument is hilarious - the situation of the game is why they didnt do it. In fact, the situation of that game makes it even more of an argument to go for it considering the pace of scoring. You dont even know when your choice of stance works against you.
This 500 capper at least knows what probability is, and how to apply it. Maybe that is what makes you so great at capping - the ability to think outside of math - but I think I will stick with it.
And if 500 capping can make you a living for 8 years running now without a real job, and also make 2010 my most profitable (by far), then maybe you should start inquiring about the secrets of us 500 cappers.
Congrats on your backers in this thread Train. You got ICAP who is admittedly drunk, 165 who is investigating further, and willywagtail who says you dont go for it because somehow you risk an injury.
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Read posts #42 and #44.
You tell me which side of this you want to be on.
Congrats on your backers in this thread Train. You got ICAP who is admittedly drunk, 165 who is investigating further, and willywagtail who says you dont go for it because somehow you risk an injury.
TULSA kicked the extra point to reduce the risk of injury. It's like the end of the Titans/INDY game. Is it worth it to risk injury going for two when TULSA have already won the game?
Seriously zack why don't you go apply for a nfl/ncaaf coaching job? I am sure with your superior knowledge of clock management and probability, you will be a hall of famer in no time.
Wow. Where to begin with this?
The game was not won with seven minutes left. Just ask the New York Giants if they hand out prizes up three touchdowns after 53 minutes.
The end of Indianapolis/Tennessee featured a touchdown as time expired
to make the score 30-27. Under NFL rules you have to attempt a PAT. Are
you insinuating that the Titans kicked an extra point to avoid an injury
if they went for two? That is laughable. Neither option resulted in a
win so they took the easiest scoring option available, the extra point and a 30-28 final.
Are you also insinuating that the Golden Hurricane feared injury so much
that they were willing to kick an extra point rather than try to put
themselves in better position to win the football game by going for two?
I think the 80+ members of the Tulsa football team would take that as an insult.
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Quote Originally Posted by willywagtail:
TULSA kicked the extra point to reduce the risk of injury. It's like the end of the Titans/INDY game. Is it worth it to risk injury going for two when TULSA have already won the game?
Seriously zack why don't you go apply for a nfl/ncaaf coaching job? I am sure with your superior knowledge of clock management and probability, you will be a hall of famer in no time.
Wow. Where to begin with this?
The game was not won with seven minutes left. Just ask the New York Giants if they hand out prizes up three touchdowns after 53 minutes.
The end of Indianapolis/Tennessee featured a touchdown as time expired
to make the score 30-27. Under NFL rules you have to attempt a PAT. Are
you insinuating that the Titans kicked an extra point to avoid an injury
if they went for two? That is laughable. Neither option resulted in a
win so they took the easiest scoring option available, the extra point and a 30-28 final.
Are you also insinuating that the Golden Hurricane feared injury so much
that they were willing to kick an extra point rather than try to put
themselves in better position to win the football game by going for two?
I think the 80+ members of the Tulsa football team would take that as an insult.
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