Maldini i have other factors for betting florida, but yes conferences has something to do with it. Sure Alabama is an example in your favor, and there are other execptions, but a good handicapper takes conferences and strength of schedule into thought, so I dont really understand why you would think bookies would like that. You were the type that probably bet ball st...or buffalo....the statistics that you base your thoughts off for bowl season are created for the most part by their conference play. How can you ignore that? The Big 10 got respect in the national polls throughout the season, but when it got to bowl time, they were all huge underdogs. Can you explain that? Try betting wac and mac teams next year in bowl season, and let me know how it turns out.
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Maldini i have other factors for betting florida, but yes conferences has something to do with it. Sure Alabama is an example in your favor, and there are other execptions, but a good handicapper takes conferences and strength of schedule into thought, so I dont really understand why you would think bookies would like that. You were the type that probably bet ball st...or buffalo....the statistics that you base your thoughts off for bowl season are created for the most part by their conference play. How can you ignore that? The Big 10 got respect in the national polls throughout the season, but when it got to bowl time, they were all huge underdogs. Can you explain that? Try betting wac and mac teams next year in bowl season, and let me know how it turns out.
cover 2 & cover 3 are not blitzing defenses. man coverage lends itself better for blitzing teams.Being in shotgun gives Tebow time to find the holes in zone coverage. OK will have to play some man combo to contain Tebow with 7 or 8 in the box. BOL
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maldini
cover 2 & cover 3 are not blitzing defenses. man coverage lends itself better for blitzing teams.Being in shotgun gives Tebow time to find the holes in zone coverage. OK will have to play some man combo to contain Tebow with 7 or 8 in the box. BOL
P.S. Maldini I dont really put actual scores into handicapping unless its something thats too hard to ignore. That would be just plain stupid to take that into account, and yes bookies would love that, but ignoring quality of opponents is foolish.
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P.S. Maldini I dont really put actual scores into handicapping unless its something thats too hard to ignore. That would be just plain stupid to take that into account, and yes bookies would love that, but ignoring quality of opponents is foolish.
I think the BCS got it right this time.. FLA and OK are the 2 best teams this year. (USC might have an argument though). this is going to be a classic, I cant wait... I have been watching closely the line movement in this game. when the lines first came out it was FLA -3 and now FLA -5. There are a couple of reasons I think it is moving in that direction. first of all is the Percy Harvin appears to be able to play, not 100% but will still be a factor. Secondly, the Ole Miss/T Tech game. I think this result really gave us an opportunity to see how the SEC might have an edge. throughout the year the Big 12 looked supreme. I thought so, and I lost some money on Tech that day. It surely made me think that now FLA could do the same to Ok.
I am not an SEC fan at all, I love the Buckeyes and had to deal with 2 straight embarrassments against FLA and then LSU. But I just think the SEC might just be superior again. And I am not sold on the Big 12 yet, TTech lost and look how close the Buckeyes were to beating Texas the other night... 22 seconds big play was the difference. And I dont consider the Buckeyes to be in the same class as Texas. And I ranked Texas and Oklahoma the same, afterall Tex beat Ok, remember...
As for FLA, they got their wakeup call early in the year against Ole Miss.. Then Tebow made a promise that he has backed up. They have been dominant since that day. There is something special about this team. The leader - Tebow is unbelievable, their team speed - unmatched..
So, even with the spread now being -5 I am still going to go with FLA. I would even take them at -7. As for the total, we are going to be surprised here, it will be lower than we think.
Prediction: FLA 37 - OKLA 28
Cant wait for kickoff!!!! GLA
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I think the BCS got it right this time.. FLA and OK are the 2 best teams this year. (USC might have an argument though). this is going to be a classic, I cant wait... I have been watching closely the line movement in this game. when the lines first came out it was FLA -3 and now FLA -5. There are a couple of reasons I think it is moving in that direction. first of all is the Percy Harvin appears to be able to play, not 100% but will still be a factor. Secondly, the Ole Miss/T Tech game. I think this result really gave us an opportunity to see how the SEC might have an edge. throughout the year the Big 12 looked supreme. I thought so, and I lost some money on Tech that day. It surely made me think that now FLA could do the same to Ok.
I am not an SEC fan at all, I love the Buckeyes and had to deal with 2 straight embarrassments against FLA and then LSU. But I just think the SEC might just be superior again. And I am not sold on the Big 12 yet, TTech lost and look how close the Buckeyes were to beating Texas the other night... 22 seconds big play was the difference. And I dont consider the Buckeyes to be in the same class as Texas. And I ranked Texas and Oklahoma the same, afterall Tex beat Ok, remember...
As for FLA, they got their wakeup call early in the year against Ole Miss.. Then Tebow made a promise that he has backed up. They have been dominant since that day. There is something special about this team. The leader - Tebow is unbelievable, their team speed - unmatched..
So, even with the spread now being -5 I am still going to go with FLA. I would even take them at -7. As for the total, we are going to be surprised here, it will be lower than we think.
Putz, I don't make 1st half plays so I have no recommendation for you. The reason is you don't know who will get the football in the first half on the kickoff. If you assume 6-7 possessions per half, that one possession disadvantage can put you in a 15% hole all on the flip of the coin. Of course, you may get that edge if your team gets the extra posession but who gets the kickoff is a known fact in the 2nd half, plus you will have seen how the teams matchup with one another. I like Florida in the game, so if betting the half I would take them. I feel they will dominate all the way through, just feel better placing it all on the total game rather than risking an edge to a coin flip.. Good luck whatever you do.
Quote Originally Posted by putz56:
can someone tell me who they think will be ahead in the score at half time.Sooners----or----Gators??? Its because i like to bet on half-time scores thanx.
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Putz, I don't make 1st half plays so I have no recommendation for you. The reason is you don't know who will get the football in the first half on the kickoff. If you assume 6-7 possessions per half, that one possession disadvantage can put you in a 15% hole all on the flip of the coin. Of course, you may get that edge if your team gets the extra posession but who gets the kickoff is a known fact in the 2nd half, plus you will have seen how the teams matchup with one another. I like Florida in the game, so if betting the half I would take them. I feel they will dominate all the way through, just feel better placing it all on the total game rather than risking an edge to a coin flip.. Good luck whatever you do.
Quote Originally Posted by putz56:
can someone tell me who they think will be ahead in the score at half time.Sooners----or----Gators??? Its because i like to bet on half-time scores thanx.
Player - i think you are on to something... Ole Miss surprised me, only team beating FLA and then TTech in the bowl. As much as I hate to admit, the SEC just keeps spittin out winners!!
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Player - i think you are on to something... Ole Miss surprised me, only team beating FLA and then TTech in the bowl. As much as I hate to admit, the SEC just keeps spittin out winners!!
Line has moved a full point today alone, everybody is on Florida, Big 12 sucks, no defense, Sam "Heisman" Bradford will stink it up b/c he just won the Heisman, Florida will put too much pressure on Oklahoma, blah, blah, blah
Everybody's going one way, goe the other - pretty simple. I trust VERY, VERY few of the "experts" on TV, here, or otherwise. I trust the common sense eyeball test and my pretty good pair says that Oklahoma is a damn good football team who scores @ will on everybody who crosses their path and has only gotten better as the year has gone on. As for Texas being better; well I can't argue that they won the game but that's about it. I watched the game and truly feel they were very fortunate to exit the Red River Shootout with a victory. OK's defense is very, very formidable - why do you think all the blowouts? It wasn't just offense boys - go back & look @ the 1st qrtr and 1st half scores - unreal. Am I saying Florida won't win? No. Am I saying that Oklahoma is the best thing since sliced bread? No. But..... I am saying that it is insane to not take a gift of +5 with a team as dominant as OK. Think about this scenario: Can you see Oklahoma scoring 1st? If they do which, following trends from the entire year, is very likely, then you are operating with a 12 point cushion the rest of the night! I can see either Oklahoma jumping on Florida 1st or a dogfight all night long - I don't see the Florida blowout scenario as a possibility. Book it!
GLTA
I never thought of this, but I completely agree. I had an a$$ load of money on Texas that day, and I remember feeling like I got real lucky to win that one. There were several times, when I was like "wow, Oklahoma is a lot better than I give them credit for, I think I mis-capped this game". Turned out okay.
Still not sure what to do with this one. I want to grab points here and take Oklahoma, but at the same time, I don't see this being a 7-pt game or less either way. Someone will pull away in the 4th, they always do in these games.
I feel like I should take Florida and go with CollegeSharp, since I've been riding him like a plastic horse outside a grocery store for the last for bowl games.
This one is tough.
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Quote Originally Posted by Efelson76:
Easy: Oklahoma +5
Line has moved a full point today alone, everybody is on Florida, Big 12 sucks, no defense, Sam "Heisman" Bradford will stink it up b/c he just won the Heisman, Florida will put too much pressure on Oklahoma, blah, blah, blah
Everybody's going one way, goe the other - pretty simple. I trust VERY, VERY few of the "experts" on TV, here, or otherwise. I trust the common sense eyeball test and my pretty good pair says that Oklahoma is a damn good football team who scores @ will on everybody who crosses their path and has only gotten better as the year has gone on. As for Texas being better; well I can't argue that they won the game but that's about it. I watched the game and truly feel they were very fortunate to exit the Red River Shootout with a victory. OK's defense is very, very formidable - why do you think all the blowouts? It wasn't just offense boys - go back & look @ the 1st qrtr and 1st half scores - unreal. Am I saying Florida won't win? No. Am I saying that Oklahoma is the best thing since sliced bread? No. But..... I am saying that it is insane to not take a gift of +5 with a team as dominant as OK. Think about this scenario: Can you see Oklahoma scoring 1st? If they do which, following trends from the entire year, is very likely, then you are operating with a 12 point cushion the rest of the night! I can see either Oklahoma jumping on Florida 1st or a dogfight all night long - I don't see the Florida blowout scenario as a possibility. Book it!
GLTA
I never thought of this, but I completely agree. I had an a$$ load of money on Texas that day, and I remember feeling like I got real lucky to win that one. There were several times, when I was like "wow, Oklahoma is a lot better than I give them credit for, I think I mis-capped this game". Turned out okay.
Still not sure what to do with this one. I want to grab points here and take Oklahoma, but at the same time, I don't see this being a 7-pt game or less either way. Someone will pull away in the 4th, they always do in these games.
I feel like I should take Florida and go with CollegeSharp, since I've been riding him like a plastic horse outside a grocery store for the last for bowl games.
can't stress enough that this isn't like the other dogs we've seen before where there was heavy betting on the favorite but the line wasn't move. in those cases, the sportsbooks wanted the public betting on the favorite.
in this game, the line is reflecting the heavier betting on florida, which is why its moving up. the sportsbooks are trying to get more money on the dog here.
the analsyis of the big 12 has no defense theory, blah, blah, blah is correct.
waiting to see the line movement tomorrow- but right now florida is the play
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can't stress enough that this isn't like the other dogs we've seen before where there was heavy betting on the favorite but the line wasn't move. in those cases, the sportsbooks wanted the public betting on the favorite.
in this game, the line is reflecting the heavier betting on florida, which is why its moving up. the sportsbooks are trying to get more money on the dog here.
the analsyis of the big 12 has no defense theory, blah, blah, blah is correct.
waiting to see the line movement tomorrow- but right now florida is the play
I see this game playing out much like the Cotton Bowl. Oklahoma clearly is a pass first offense and Florida will run the ball up and down the field. Very Similar to Texas Tech and Ol Miss and we saw how that turned out.
Running attack, better defense, ball control (less turnovers) and special teams is what wins in Jan. and these all point to the Gators.
Do your own DD and good luck.
The impossible only takes longer….
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I see this game playing out much like the Cotton Bowl. Oklahoma clearly is a pass first offense and Florida will run the ball up and down the field. Very Similar to Texas Tech and Ol Miss and we saw how that turned out.
Running attack, better defense, ball control (less turnovers) and special teams is what wins in Jan. and these all point to the Gators.
is that the forcast high and lows for florida tomorrow ??? I think the spread would be a lil higher is that were to be a possibility....you said the best player on D was out....isn't the primary running back down as well?
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is that the forcast high and lows for florida tomorrow ??? I think the spread would be a lil higher is that were to be a possibility....you said the best player on D was out....isn't the primary running back down as well?
Everyone is jumping on the over. Sounds like a good set up for a back door under. Anyone else think this? Pittsburgh 0 vs Oregon St. 3 is sloshing around in my head. Only 5 bowl games out of 33 were 70 or higher. That's only 15%.
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Everyone is jumping on the over. Sounds like a good set up for a back door under. Anyone else think this? Pittsburgh 0 vs Oregon St. 3 is sloshing around in my head. Only 5 bowl games out of 33 were 70 or higher. That's only 15%.
A trend that has been re-emerging in theese bowl games is that Defenses have taken the time to pick apart the offenses, and there have been a lot of backdoor covers on unders.Also a key factor is the time off, Offenses out of sync for the first quarter. the key is no turnovers, and if you see 2 FG's in this game then expect an under
Lot of ways to win on an under when the total is in the 70's
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yeah, shy I agree, I have the under @72.5
A trend that has been re-emerging in theese bowl games is that Defenses have taken the time to pick apart the offenses, and there have been a lot of backdoor covers on unders.Also a key factor is the time off, Offenses out of sync for the first quarter. the key is no turnovers, and if you see 2 FG's in this game then expect an under
Lot of ways to win on an under when the total is in the 70's
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Cant wait for kickoff!!!! GLA 
can someone tell me who they think will be ahead in the score at half time.Sooners----or----Gators??? Its because i like to bet on half-time scores thanx.
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