World Cup 2018

Glad I tailed you on the over. If you had picked the under I would have thrown the monitor out the window. Saudis scoring on the very last possession of each half. 

gl today V

So my thoughts on Group B before the lineups come out....

I think Portugal and Spain will be thinking there is not much difference between winning the group and coming in second at this point - you either get Uruguay and most likely Croatia if you come in second - and if you win the group you get Russia and then France.  So I don't think either side will lay down today.

Portugal certainly has enough to handle Iran, but I expect Iran to defend with 9 or 10 behind the ball for the first 60 minutes - hope to keep Portugal scoreless - and then take their chances in the final 30.  Iran need to win (unless something weird happens in Spain match), so they will need to push at the end.  Of course, all of this changes if Portugal break through early - but with Portugal just needing a draw - they might also play very guarded.  

Spain is in a similar situation with Morocco - but Spain's style of play makes the difference.  They will be in possession almost the whole time (like when they played Iran), and also knowing that a draw will do - if it gets late and Portugal is winning their match comfortably - they might not even try to score.

Basically - there are a ton of variables here - the matches are somewhat inter-dependent - which makes it very difficult to handicap and predict.  I don't see either of the dogs winning, but I wouldnt be surprised to see either game ending in a draw.

I realize it makes no difference....

But what was the gameplan there by Egypt?  You just allow the worst team in the tournament to control the ball for almost the whole match?  Why wouldn't Egypt want to boss the game - and exploit the obvious issues in the Saudi defense?

They didn't need to defend and counter - Saudi was exposed time and time again in the first two games by possession against them.  

Bring back Bob Bradley!

Spain / Morocco line up out....

Full team for Spain - GK change for Morocco but largely their team also....

The picks are in!

Spain -260 vs Morocco (2.6 to win 1)

Portugal / Iran under 2.5 -120 (1.2 to win 1)

GL all

Better betting opportunities coming later this week....

Egypt's best game by far was the only game Salah didn't play. Sometimes a one man focus hurts you, unless it is Ronaldo.

3 out of 4 bets today decided at the very end of the game.

Crazy.

Spain is in trouble.  And it is at the back.  They are not a team that can leak goals, they used to be able to win 1-0 with ease, now they are giving up goals.  And its not fluke goals either.  They give up chances all over the place.  This will be their downfall.

They play Russia now - who they should handle - but even Russia can present a threat that Spain might not be able to deal with.  But in the quarters, they will likely have Croatia - who in current form should take Spain to school.

Portugal should be done against Uruguay - but I have learned - Ronaldo (really the only player in the world) can by himself carry a team.

It just hit me...  I won my future bet on Portugal under 5.5 pts with that PK by Iran!

Thats a nice swing.

Future Bets:

Up 2.28  Down .7

Uruguay to win group A -130 (risk 1.3 units to win 1 unit) - WIN

Russia to advance group A – no - +235 (risk .2 unit to win .47 unit) - LOSS

Morocco to advance group B +325 (risk .5 unit to win 1.625 units) - LOSS

Denmark win group C +500 (risk .5 unit to win 2.5 units)

Croatia win group D +240 (.2 unit to win .48) - WIN

Sweden to advance Group F +130 (.3 unit to win .39)

Korea Republic advance NO group F -525 (1.625 to win .3) - WIN

Senegal to advance NO group G -140 (.7 to win .5)

Win WC Spain +630 (.3 units to win 1.89)

Portugal under 5.5 points Group B -125 (.625 to win .5) - WIN

Serbia over 3 points -115 (.575 to win .5)

Senegal under 3.5 points +110 (.5 to win .6)

Game Bets: (truncated because covers wont let me post full list)

Current Record - UP   26.58  Down 27.3

29.  Mexico -150 vs s Korea (3 to win 2) - WIN

30.  England / Panama over 2.5 -119 (2.38 to win 2) - WIN

31.  Senegal +130 vs Japan (2 to win 2.6) - LOSS

32.  Colombia +128 vs Poland (2 to win 2.56) - WIN

33.  Uruguay PK -110 vs Russia (1.1 to win 1) - WIN

34.  Saudi / Egypt over 2.5 +109 (2 to win 2.18) - WIN

35.  Spain -260 vs Morocco (2.6 to win 1) - LOSS

36.   Portugal / Iran under 2.5 -120 (1.2 to win 1) - WIN

Will post thoughts on Tuesday in a little while....

Nicely done Van 

Some Group D thoughts....

Croatia and Iceland were in the same qualifying group that Iceland won and Croatia came in second.  They had two very close matches, splitting them with each winning at home.  

Iceland will still consider themselves very much alive to advance.  For instance, if they beat Croatia by a goal, and Argentina beat Nigeria by a goal, Iceland are through.

Croatia has all but won the group and I fully expect them to rest a lot of players.  Wouldn't be surprised to see as many as 8 or 9 changes from the starting lineup.

Argentina is a mess.  You don't just solve these types of problems because you "want" to.  They have a coaching mutiny, and it is obvious that this system doesnt fit Messi - along with the back line.  Look at this defense player by player.  Old, slow, and just not good enough at this level, and they have been fully exposed so far.

Nigeria has a very big moment ahead of them here, and a young team that they will hope doesnt fall to the pressure.  A draw against Argentina will likely get them through (barring a multiple goal win by Iceland), but knowing you are playing Argentina and Messi - and knowing you need a draw - is a recipe for tightness and over conservative play if there ever was one.  I hope they dont think they will defend for 90 minutes, if they attack and take chances - they will be rewarded against the porous Argentina team.

And whoever advances with Croatia likely gets France as their prize.  Good luck with that.

Some Group C thoughts....

Both France and Denmark advance with a draw.  Not always as easy as you would think.  For those thinking draw, this exact situation happened twice in 2014 and neither ended a draw, and in 2010 it also happened twice with one ending in a draw.

The total on France / Denmark is intriguing.  You get +money to go over 2.  The thinking is the longer the game goes on scoreless, the less likely there is to get a goal.  That isn't as dumb as it sounds - for instance - the chances of a goal in the 70th minute of a 0-0 are much less than a goal at 20th minute at 0-0 in this one.  But an early (first half) goal in this one will have to open up the other side to press to score.

Peru is probably the least fortunate team at this tournament.  They deserve more than what they have based on their play.  Will Australia be able to stay with the speed of Peru?  

Must win for Australia - nothing less will do - and this might open them up to Peru's counterattack.