SUPER unlucky. Van. Great analysis. You were definitely on the right side of both games.
I'm sorry, but I don't think this is true. I love Vanz and think he is great at what he does, but as I mentioned in my post above, I did not like his Iceland or Nigeria pick, though I certainly tailed him on Peru! There is more to sports betting than tactical advantage, player advantage, and even coaching. It's called "human psychology." Look it up sometimes, for it can often be the difference in a close contest. The inexperience of the Nigerians, the tenacity and big match experience of Argentina and the carefree, pressure-less approach of the Croats were the difference in those games. Those two picks were toss-ups at best and risky at worst.
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Quote Originally Posted by JTmonayyy:
SUPER unlucky. Van. Great analysis. You were definitely on the right side of both games.
I'm sorry, but I don't think this is true. I love Vanz and think he is great at what he does, but as I mentioned in my post above, I did not like his Iceland or Nigeria pick, though I certainly tailed him on Peru! There is more to sports betting than tactical advantage, player advantage, and even coaching. It's called "human psychology." Look it up sometimes, for it can often be the difference in a close contest. The inexperience of the Nigerians, the tenacity and big match experience of Argentina and the carefree, pressure-less approach of the Croats were the difference in those games. Those two picks were toss-ups at best and risky at worst.
And I'll say this about Sweden tomorrow, from a psychological angle they better get the first goal, because if they fall behind they will not win. That Germany game, and the way they lost, must have taken something out of them. It is human nature after all, to have a hangover after a game like the one they lost.
A recent example is the game one loss the Raptors had against the Cavs in game 1 of their NBA playoff series. After leading the entire game by double digits, they somehow lost that game in the closing seconds. And the rest is history. They never recovered and lost the next three games. Or how about game 1 of the NBA finals? George Hill misses the winning free throw and JR Smith runs out the clock, in a game the Cavs should have won, and the Cavs never win again. Sports is full of such examples.
Vanz gave you great insight into the X's and O's of Sweden v Mexico, and he is probably right. All things being equal, this is a bad matchup for Mexico and Sweden is the side to back. But these games don't take place in a vacuum, and I just want to remind folks of the human factor, which is also very important.
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And I'll say this about Sweden tomorrow, from a psychological angle they better get the first goal, because if they fall behind they will not win. That Germany game, and the way they lost, must have taken something out of them. It is human nature after all, to have a hangover after a game like the one they lost.
A recent example is the game one loss the Raptors had against the Cavs in game 1 of their NBA playoff series. After leading the entire game by double digits, they somehow lost that game in the closing seconds. And the rest is history. They never recovered and lost the next three games. Or how about game 1 of the NBA finals? George Hill misses the winning free throw and JR Smith runs out the clock, in a game the Cavs should have won, and the Cavs never win again. Sports is full of such examples.
Vanz gave you great insight into the X's and O's of Sweden v Mexico, and he is probably right. All things being equal, this is a bad matchup for Mexico and Sweden is the side to back. But these games don't take place in a vacuum, and I just want to remind folks of the human factor, which is also very important.
Not necessarily (though I love their spirit and attacking style a lot more than Sweden's cowardly style of play), just pointing out that Sweden, after the way they lost to Germany, is psychologically vulnerable.
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Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:
BB r u saying Mexico is better bet here?
Not necessarily (though I love their spirit and attacking style a lot more than Sweden's cowardly style of play), just pointing out that Sweden, after the way they lost to Germany, is psychologically vulnerable.
Mexico is drastically overfavored. Sweden is +250 and pk +.5 -110 out there. At best Mexico is about even with them. Good value win lose or draw. Sweden is play
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Mexico is drastically overfavored. Sweden is +250 and pk +.5 -110 out there. At best Mexico is about even with them. Good value win lose or draw. Sweden is play
The scenarios for Group F is intriguing if Germany and Sweden wins... As I see it unless I'm wrong.
Mexico advances as long as they don't lose to Sweden by 2 goals or more AND Germany does not beat SK by 2 goals or more.
If either Germany or Sweden wins their games by more than the other, they're in.
If Sweden and Germany wins by same amount, then comes down to fair play (yellow / red cards). Germany has 2Y/1R = -5 pts. Sweden has 3Y = -3 pts. Germany is in big trouble if it comes down this. I expect Germany and Sweden to be very careful with tackling today if games are close.
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The scenarios for Group F is intriguing if Germany and Sweden wins... As I see it unless I'm wrong.
Mexico advances as long as they don't lose to Sweden by 2 goals or more AND Germany does not beat SK by 2 goals or more.
If either Germany or Sweden wins their games by more than the other, they're in.
If Sweden and Germany wins by same amount, then comes down to fair play (yellow / red cards). Germany has 2Y/1R = -5 pts. Sweden has 3Y = -3 pts. Germany is in big trouble if it comes down this. I expect Germany and Sweden to be very careful with tackling today if games are close.
The scenarios for Group F is intriguing if Germany and Sweden wins... As I see it unless I'm wrong.
Mexico advances as long as they don't lose to Sweden by 2 goals or more AND Germany does not beat SK by 2 goals or more.
If either Germany or Sweden wins their games by more than the other or by same margin but one scores more than other, they're in.
If Sweden and Germany wins by same amount, then comes down to fair play (yellow / red cards). Germany has 2Y/1R = -5 pts. Sweden has 3Y = -3 pts. Germany is in big trouble if it comes down this. I expect Germany and Sweden to be very careful with tackling today if games are close.
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Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:
The scenarios for Group F is intriguing if Germany and Sweden wins... As I see it unless I'm wrong.
Mexico advances as long as they don't lose to Sweden by 2 goals or more AND Germany does not beat SK by 2 goals or more.
If either Germany or Sweden wins their games by more than the other or by same margin but one scores more than other, they're in.
If Sweden and Germany wins by same amount, then comes down to fair play (yellow / red cards). Germany has 2Y/1R = -5 pts. Sweden has 3Y = -3 pts. Germany is in big trouble if it comes down this. I expect Germany and Sweden to be very careful with tackling today if games are close.
And I'll say this about Sweden tomorrow, from a psychological angle they better get the first goal, because if they fall behind they will not win. That Germany game, and the way they lost, must have taken something out of them. It is human nature after all, to have a hangover after a game like the one they lost.
A recent example is the game one loss the Raptors had against the Cavs in game 1 of their NBA playoff series. After leading the entire game by double digits, they somehow lost that game in the closing seconds. And the rest is history. They never recovered and lost the next three games. Or how about game 1 of the NBA finals? George Hill misses the winning free throw and JR Smith runs out the clock, in a game the Cavs should have won, and the Cavs never win again. Sports is full of such examples.
Vanz gave you great insight into the X's and O's of Sweden v Mexico, and he is probably right. All things being equal, this is a bad matchup for Mexico and Sweden is the side to back. But these games don't take place in a vacuum, and I just want to remind folks of the human factor, which is also very important.
BB - not going to play monday morning QB here - but emotions and motivations are the hardest thing to predict IMO. You can make an argument for any team in any situation. Bounce back? Or down and out?
The "human factor" as you put it is totally intangible most of the time, and therefore way down on my list of things to consider when making a bet.
You say that the Germany loss took something out of them, but what we saw today was a disciplined and organized and well drilled team executing a plan - void of the emotion you thought they would carry. I understand your narrative, but emotions are just too unpredictable IMO.
But to each his own.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
And I'll say this about Sweden tomorrow, from a psychological angle they better get the first goal, because if they fall behind they will not win. That Germany game, and the way they lost, must have taken something out of them. It is human nature after all, to have a hangover after a game like the one they lost.
A recent example is the game one loss the Raptors had against the Cavs in game 1 of their NBA playoff series. After leading the entire game by double digits, they somehow lost that game in the closing seconds. And the rest is history. They never recovered and lost the next three games. Or how about game 1 of the NBA finals? George Hill misses the winning free throw and JR Smith runs out the clock, in a game the Cavs should have won, and the Cavs never win again. Sports is full of such examples.
Vanz gave you great insight into the X's and O's of Sweden v Mexico, and he is probably right. All things being equal, this is a bad matchup for Mexico and Sweden is the side to back. But these games don't take place in a vacuum, and I just want to remind folks of the human factor, which is also very important.
BB - not going to play monday morning QB here - but emotions and motivations are the hardest thing to predict IMO. You can make an argument for any team in any situation. Bounce back? Or down and out?
The "human factor" as you put it is totally intangible most of the time, and therefore way down on my list of things to consider when making a bet.
You say that the Germany loss took something out of them, but what we saw today was a disciplined and organized and well drilled team executing a plan - void of the emotion you thought they would carry. I understand your narrative, but emotions are just too unpredictable IMO.
I want to point something out for tomorrows Belgium England match.....
The way the brackets are shaping up, the bottom half is the the bracket you would want to be in. You avoid France, Argentina, Uruguay, Portugal, Mexico, likely Brazil.
I wonder how much this will affect who really plays and who rests tomorrow. I wouldnt bet this match until this is all sorted and line ups are out.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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I want to point something out for tomorrows Belgium England match.....
The way the brackets are shaping up, the bottom half is the the bracket you would want to be in. You avoid France, Argentina, Uruguay, Portugal, Mexico, likely Brazil.
I wonder how much this will affect who really plays and who rests tomorrow. I wouldnt bet this match until this is all sorted and line ups are out.
I want to point something out for tomorrows Belgium England match.....
The way the brackets are shaping up, the bottom half is the the bracket you would want to be in. You avoid France, Argentina, Uruguay, Portugal, Mexico, likely Brazil.
I wonder how much this will affect who really plays and who rests tomorrow. I wouldnt bet this match until this is all sorted and line ups are out.
Hey Van, long time since we talked last and I'm not someone to be remembered..haha.
Do you think that the coaches are looking at how the brackets are being filled and would that change some of the people that are already secured in their groups? England and Belgium are secured but they might want to change where they fall. The last group is still in the air so I wonder if that affects the coaching decision or are they worried to be knocked out and just want to win?
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I want to point something out for tomorrows Belgium England match.....
The way the brackets are shaping up, the bottom half is the the bracket you would want to be in. You avoid France, Argentina, Uruguay, Portugal, Mexico, likely Brazil.
I wonder how much this will affect who really plays and who rests tomorrow. I wouldnt bet this match until this is all sorted and line ups are out.
Hey Van, long time since we talked last and I'm not someone to be remembered..haha.
Do you think that the coaches are looking at how the brackets are being filled and would that change some of the people that are already secured in their groups? England and Belgium are secured but they might want to change where they fall. The last group is still in the air so I wonder if that affects the coaching decision or are they worried to be knocked out and just want to win?
Hey Van, long time since we talked last and I'm not someone to be remembered..haha.
Do you think that the coaches are looking at how the brackets are being filled and would that change some of the people that are already secured in their groups? England and Belgium are secured but they might want to change where they fall. The last group is still in the air so I wonder if that affects the coaching decision or are they worried to be knocked out and just want to win?
I definitely think they are looking at it, and that was my point in making that post.
As of now, it sure looks like coming in second in the England Belgium group is better than winning it. To add to that - both teams are already qualified and the game is largely meaningless other than deciding first and second.
I think both teams will rest most of their teams (like we saw with Croatia yesterday). Why would they risk losing a starter, or why not give them rest?
It is a very strange situation.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by Zacreth:
Hey Van, long time since we talked last and I'm not someone to be remembered..haha.
Do you think that the coaches are looking at how the brackets are being filled and would that change some of the people that are already secured in their groups? England and Belgium are secured but they might want to change where they fall. The last group is still in the air so I wonder if that affects the coaching decision or are they worried to be knocked out and just want to win?
I definitely think they are looking at it, and that was my point in making that post.
As of now, it sure looks like coming in second in the England Belgium group is better than winning it. To add to that - both teams are already qualified and the game is largely meaningless other than deciding first and second.
I think both teams will rest most of their teams (like we saw with Croatia yesterday). Why would they risk losing a starter, or why not give them rest?
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