World Cup 2018

As Van said,  Croatia might be benching their players.

https://www.beinsports.com/en/2018-fifa-world-cup-russia/video/argentina-concerns-grow-as-dalic-vows-to-re-1/909019

thx for the article. Interesting though that the public sure isn't betting the game as if they are resting anyone 

Good start.

Thinking about bumping up Iceland with new better line.....

Iceland line has gotten much better.  Anyone betting now will get Iceland +.5 +105ish.  

For the purposes of this thread, I am going to bump the iceland bet up .5 unit - reflected below.

39.  Nigeria +.5 +172 vs Argentina (1.5 units to win 2.58)

40.  Iceland PK and +.5  -103 vs Croatia (2.06 to win 2), Iceland +.5 +105 (.5 to win .525) - locking this up early before the Croatia line up is released - I fully expect almost a whole new team out there for Croatia.

That is only 7.

Croatia resting 9 starters from their win against Argentina.

Only Modric and Perisic return.

Argentinas lineup looks like a 30 and up league.

They are in trouble today.

Hope you caught Iceland before lineups were announced.  Line coming down now as expected.

Mandzukic, Rakitic, Rebic, and Vrsaljko got yellow card, don't see them risking it by playing whole game if they start.

Modric played against Iceland in qualifying, with Croatias FIRST team, and they lost.

Why would one guy carry the whole second team with ease?

Definitely no cakewalk.  For sure.  Never said that for sure.

That was brutal.

Tomorrows picks after some recovery time.

Thanks.  I like to think I am fairly objective about good luck and bad luck, but this WC so far has not been "lucky" for me.  I do feel like I deserved more from todays late games, but it goes that way sometimes.

On to tomorrow....

I have a lot of thoughts about todays games, but I will save them for later.  I can't imagine France not advancing against Argentina, but will wait and let it settle in a few days....

Wednesdays Games:

In a WC oddity, Group F is playing before Group E.  Why?  I dont know.  Sepp Blatter probably got some money for it though.

I am not sure that a team has ever been eliminated from group play with 6 points, but it is conceivable that it could happen here.  Germany is going to beat S Korea, which will give them 6, and if Sweden beats Mexico, it will be a three way tie for first at 6 points each.  Germany goes through for sure in this scenario, and if Sweden wins by 2+ goals they go through otherwise it is Mexico.  If Mexico beats Germany, and wins against S Korea, and doesnt make it through, they will feel very hard done by.

Mexico has been the tactical masterclass of this tournament so far.  They showed how to beat germany - take them on the counterattack with speed and spread them out - and then they changed it up and beat S Korea with possession.  For a coach who has been criticized in the past, it shows his skills and the ability for this side to change as needed according to situation and opposition.

Sweden has been very good, but a few bad minutes meant disaster for them.  But they easily have the ability to deal with Mexico.  They will know they have to win, which is not a position I would think they like.  But Sweden (under normal circumstances, not the last few minutes against Germany) is extremely organized and defensively sound - something Mexico has not seen so far in this tournament.  And this might frustrate the Mexicans.

Mexico has scored 3 goals so far - 2 of them on the break - and 1 PK.  In normal build up play, they have been very pedestrian - zero goals and not many chances.  I am very skeptical as to how they are going to deal with a Sweden defense that will be organized and solid all match (until of course the 92nd minute when they will push to score, and Mexico will win with a late break goal).

My prediction is that Sweden will frustrate Mexico all day, and have chances on the break, and also beat them with physical strength and size.  If Sweden is at all up for this match after giving everything in their match against Germany - I look for them to have the edge, and as the match goes on, become more and more comfortable on the ball and Mexico increasingly frustrated.

Sweden +225 vs Mexico (2 units to win 4.5) - Predicted final score Sweden 2-0

What can I do with the S Korea vs Germany match.  I would love to take the Koreans here - as I think Germany might be the biggest public square bet of this whole tournament - and I do see cracks that make Germany not perfect - but I cant bet against them here.  I also cant bet on them.

The Germans will have possession, they will have chances, they will have shots.  How many will go in?  1? 2? 3? 7?  I dont know.

Germany vs S Korea - no bet - predicted final score Germany more than 0, S Korea less than Germany.

Correction above....  If Sweden beat Mexico they advance.  They do not need to win by 2+ goals.  They just need to win.

You sure?

If they have the same result, it'll come down to tiebreakers. Should Germany win their match by two and Sweden win by one, Germany would advance. Should they win by the same margin (or both draw), whichever team scores the most goals in their final match would advance.

From the internet and my head