I would gladly make that Uruguay/Portugal draw bet again. Good call even if a L. That miss with goalie on his belly out of net was pretty big. Would like clarification on your Spain bet ( and on your France bet as well) You seem to have some sort of a parlay there on each ?? I followed you with stoppage time bets on France pk @ +142 and -1/2 @ +138 , but it appears you were able to combine those into one bet ?? Now you have done something similar on Spain v Russia. Help, please. Thank you and GL going forward.
Basically, in soccer, you can make bets that are sometimes called -.25 or -.75.
This just means that half of your bet is placed on Spain at -.5, and half at -1 (or some people call this -.75).
If Spain wins by 1 goal exactly, half your bet would win, and half would push. If Spain wins by >1 goal, you win it all.
Most books offer this (like 5 dimes), but if yours doesn't, you can accomplish the same thing by splitting your bet on -.5 and -1.
So to use my bet as an example, I have 2 bets.... Spain to win at -125, and Spain -1 at -125 (each risking 2.5 to win 2).
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Quote Originally Posted by taurus:
I would gladly make that Uruguay/Portugal draw bet again. Good call even if a L. That miss with goalie on his belly out of net was pretty big. Would like clarification on your Spain bet ( and on your France bet as well) You seem to have some sort of a parlay there on each ?? I followed you with stoppage time bets on France pk @ +142 and -1/2 @ +138 , but it appears you were able to combine those into one bet ?? Now you have done something similar on Spain v Russia. Help, please. Thank you and GL going forward.
Basically, in soccer, you can make bets that are sometimes called -.25 or -.75.
This just means that half of your bet is placed on Spain at -.5, and half at -1 (or some people call this -.75).
If Spain wins by 1 goal exactly, half your bet would win, and half would push. If Spain wins by >1 goal, you win it all.
Most books offer this (like 5 dimes), but if yours doesn't, you can accomplish the same thing by splitting your bet on -.5 and -1.
So to use my bet as an example, I have 2 bets.... Spain to win at -125, and Spain -1 at -125 (each risking 2.5 to win 2).
Van my book(Heritage) has Spain pickem/ -.5 at -129 and spain -.5 at +125... Did you mistype your bet and mean pickem/-.5 or am I getting a steal? Very weird....
Heritage has Spain -.5 at +125?I highly doubt it.Spain is -160ish.
yea im a moron and had clicked on first half bets by accident
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by NoodleArmHCG:
Van my book(Heritage) has Spain pickem/ -.5 at -129 and spain -.5 at +125... Did you mistype your bet and mean pickem/-.5 or am I getting a steal? Very weird....
Heritage has Spain -.5 at +125?I highly doubt it.Spain is -160ish.
yea im a moron and had clicked on first half bets by accident
This now marks two consecutive tournaments where Spain's ball-possession , Tiki-taka strategy, has flamed out in disaster. They lacked any will to push the ball forward after going up 1-0 , likely for fear of counter-attack from Russia. They seemed to content with possession alone. Very disappointing. This team needs to re-tool somehow..
Going forward, what are we to make from Russia's performance ? It's hard to tell.. Spain possessed the ball a ridiculous amount and Russia didn't really have that many legitimate scoring opportunities. I wouldn't consider these guys a sleeper team even though they knocked off a highly ranked Spain club.
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This now marks two consecutive tournaments where Spain's ball-possession , Tiki-taka strategy, has flamed out in disaster. They lacked any will to push the ball forward after going up 1-0 , likely for fear of counter-attack from Russia. They seemed to content with possession alone. Very disappointing. This team needs to re-tool somehow..
Going forward, what are we to make from Russia's performance ? It's hard to tell.. Spain possessed the ball a ridiculous amount and Russia didn't really have that many legitimate scoring opportunities. I wouldn't consider these guys a sleeper team even though they knocked off a highly ranked Spain club.
Official Colombian Federation statement on James finally released:
"James Rodríguez underwent a scan today which showed that he is suffering from minor edema (a slight swelling caused by an accumulation of fluid) in his right leg, but that there has been no muscle tear."
Still no encouraging news on James. Damn, what a disappointment if he can't play.. Same goes for Edison Cavani w/ Uruguay. Both teams needs these men healthy to have chances of advancing
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Quote Originally Posted by Dubfire:
Official Colombian Federation statement on James finally released:
"James Rodríguez underwent a scan today which showed that he is suffering from minor edema (a slight swelling caused by an accumulation of fluid) in his right leg, but that there has been no muscle tear."
Still no encouraging news on James. Damn, what a disappointment if he can't play.. Same goes for Edison Cavani w/ Uruguay. Both teams needs these men healthy to have chances of advancing
Very disappointed in Spain, and myself for rating them so highly. I knew the weakness - and I chose to ignore it.
Spain set a "world record" (I assume for games where this stat is actually kept) of 1137 passes in a match. But as we all know by now, possession doesn't mean dangerous possession. If they gave out wins for passes or possession Spain would be undefeated.
Congrats to Russia. Negative football sometimes wins. Greece did it all the way to a Euro Championship, so it is not impossible.
At about the 60th minute I said to myself that I knew what was going to happen, and I should have known this was a good possibility.
As for Denmark - pretty much exactly what I expected - except for the first 4 minutes.
Croatia opens as a +130 favorite over Russia. I know I will be on Croatia, just gotta figure out how to do it.
Tomorrows picks coming up....
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Very disappointed in Spain, and myself for rating them so highly. I knew the weakness - and I chose to ignore it.
Spain set a "world record" (I assume for games where this stat is actually kept) of 1137 passes in a match. But as we all know by now, possession doesn't mean dangerous possession. If they gave out wins for passes or possession Spain would be undefeated.
Congrats to Russia. Negative football sometimes wins. Greece did it all the way to a Euro Championship, so it is not impossible.
At about the 60th minute I said to myself that I knew what was going to happen, and I should have known this was a good possibility.
As for Denmark - pretty much exactly what I expected - except for the first 4 minutes.
Croatia opens as a +130 favorite over Russia. I know I will be on Croatia, just gotta figure out how to do it.
I don't think this stat is accurate, but I do think it is very close.... David DeGea and Spain gave up a goal on 10 of the 11 shots on goal in this tournament (including PKs). (bwin is the source) I think it is more like 10 out of 13, but it is an incredibly high number.
That stat is almost accurate.
Portugal had 3 goals on 3 shots-on-target. Iran had 0 goals on 0 shots. Morocco had 2 goals on 3 shots. Russia had 1 goal on 1 shot, and 4 goals on 5 penalty kicks.
Total 10 goals on 12 shots.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I don't think this stat is accurate, but I do think it is very close.... David DeGea and Spain gave up a goal on 10 of the 11 shots on goal in this tournament (including PKs). (bwin is the source) I think it is more like 10 out of 13, but it is an incredibly high number.
That stat is almost accurate.
Portugal had 3 goals on 3 shots-on-target. Iran had 0 goals on 0 shots. Morocco had 2 goals on 3 shots. Russia had 1 goal on 1 shot, and 4 goals on 5 penalty kicks.
Portugal had 3 goals on 3 shots-on-target. Iran had 0 goals on 0 shots. Morocco had 2 goals on 3 shots. Russia had 1 goal on 1 shot, and 4 goals on 5 penalty kicks.
Total 10 goals on 12 shots.
Correct
David De Gea is credited with 1....1 save the entire tournament
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Quote Originally Posted by weeble5672:
That stat is almost accurate.
Portugal had 3 goals on 3 shots-on-target. Iran had 0 goals on 0 shots. Morocco had 2 goals on 3 shots. Russia had 1 goal on 1 shot, and 4 goals on 5 penalty kicks.
Total 10 goals on 12 shots.
Correct
David De Gea is credited with 1....1 save the entire tournament
Very disappointed in Spain, and myself for rating them so highly. I knew the weakness - and I chose to ignore it. Spain set a "world record" (I assume for games where this stat is actually kept) of 1137 passes in a match. But as we all know by now, possession doesn't mean dangerous possession. If they gave out wins for passes or possession Spain would be undefeated. Congrats to Russia. Negative football sometimes wins. Greece did it all the way to a Euro Championship, so it is not impossible. At about the 60th minute I said to myself that I knew what was going to happen, and I should have known this was a good possibility. As for Denmark - pretty much exactly what I expected - except for the first 4 minutes. Croatia opens as a +130 favorite over Russia. I know I will be on Croatia, just gotta figure out how to do it. Tomorrows picks coming up....
My wife and I are not soccer fans but we enjoy the World Cup with a few friends. About midway thru the 1st half, my wife says " Spain just keeps passing in nowhere land expecting something to happen, but it never does. "
We were rooting hard for Spain because my son just got back from Madrid and got a first hand feel of how much they love the the team and the game.
Keep deciphering these matchups Van, nobody does it better.
1
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Very disappointed in Spain, and myself for rating them so highly. I knew the weakness - and I chose to ignore it. Spain set a "world record" (I assume for games where this stat is actually kept) of 1137 passes in a match. But as we all know by now, possession doesn't mean dangerous possession. If they gave out wins for passes or possession Spain would be undefeated. Congrats to Russia. Negative football sometimes wins. Greece did it all the way to a Euro Championship, so it is not impossible. At about the 60th minute I said to myself that I knew what was going to happen, and I should have known this was a good possibility. As for Denmark - pretty much exactly what I expected - except for the first 4 minutes. Croatia opens as a +130 favorite over Russia. I know I will be on Croatia, just gotta figure out how to do it. Tomorrows picks coming up....
My wife and I are not soccer fans but we enjoy the World Cup with a few friends. About midway thru the 1st half, my wife says " Spain just keeps passing in nowhere land expecting something to happen, but it never does. "
We were rooting hard for Spain because my son just got back from Madrid and got a first hand feel of how much they love the the team and the game.
Keep deciphering these matchups Van, nobody does it better.
"Russian players were ready to die on the field today" said smolov after the match ended.. Russias first playoff win ever and the weight of a whole nation lifted this will be quite interesting going forward. I have croatia in my bracket as well but who knows what can happen from this point on.
Cherchesov didnt have to outcoach Hierro that much because firing the real coach days prior to the start came back to bite them in the end in my opinion.
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"Russian players were ready to die on the field today" said smolov after the match ended.. Russias first playoff win ever and the weight of a whole nation lifted this will be quite interesting going forward. I have croatia in my bracket as well but who knows what can happen from this point on.
Cherchesov didnt have to outcoach Hierro that much because firing the real coach days prior to the start came back to bite them in the end in my opinion.
Brazil come in off of back to back wins against CR and Serbia - both 2-0 in group play - but neither of those games were as comfortable as the scoreline. I actually feel like their best performance was their draw against Switzerland, and were unlucky with the draw.
This is not the Brazil of old. These are all players who now play in Europe, unlike Brazil sides of old that had players that still played with club teams in South America, and while unusual to see Brazil playing in more traditional formations - I have come around to thinking it favors them.
Brazil has only faced 4 shots on target through three games in the group, which is what this "new" Brazilian side is all about - get the clean sheet and let someone do a moment of magic and take a 1 to nil. Very European.
I have written a lot about Mexico in this thread, and no other team has been do or die according to their tactics and the tactics of their opposition. There was no luck in their wins and loss, just straight up 2 tactical wins and 1 tactical loss.
The way I see it - is that JC Osorio has only one option in this game - and that is to defend and counter like they did against Germany. And we all saw what happened there, so I do not count the Mexicans out here against Brazil.
But I do feel like this Brazil side is certainly more in form than the German side Mexico faced - and poses a speed advantage that Germany didn't have - and I am not sure how Mexico will deal with that for 90+ minutes. Marcello is a big loss for Brazil going forward - the most offensive defender possibly in the history of the sport - his absence should mean that Mexico could force and funnel play to come up the center rather than bombing the wings - which would make Brazil one dimensional - or slightly less multi-dimensional.
We saw today that these knockout games are a different animal than any type of club play. Lesser teams can play for extra time and PKs, it is an unfortunate part of all of this. I really think Mexico will feel like defending and countering (cautiously) is their only hope.
I think the best bet here is the under 2.5.
Brazil / Mexico under 2.5 -102 (2.55 units to win 2.5) - most likely outcome is Brazil 1-0 or a later goal for 2-0.
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Brazil / Mexico -
Brazil come in off of back to back wins against CR and Serbia - both 2-0 in group play - but neither of those games were as comfortable as the scoreline. I actually feel like their best performance was their draw against Switzerland, and were unlucky with the draw.
This is not the Brazil of old. These are all players who now play in Europe, unlike Brazil sides of old that had players that still played with club teams in South America, and while unusual to see Brazil playing in more traditional formations - I have come around to thinking it favors them.
Brazil has only faced 4 shots on target through three games in the group, which is what this "new" Brazilian side is all about - get the clean sheet and let someone do a moment of magic and take a 1 to nil. Very European.
I have written a lot about Mexico in this thread, and no other team has been do or die according to their tactics and the tactics of their opposition. There was no luck in their wins and loss, just straight up 2 tactical wins and 1 tactical loss.
The way I see it - is that JC Osorio has only one option in this game - and that is to defend and counter like they did against Germany. And we all saw what happened there, so I do not count the Mexicans out here against Brazil.
But I do feel like this Brazil side is certainly more in form than the German side Mexico faced - and poses a speed advantage that Germany didn't have - and I am not sure how Mexico will deal with that for 90+ minutes. Marcello is a big loss for Brazil going forward - the most offensive defender possibly in the history of the sport - his absence should mean that Mexico could force and funnel play to come up the center rather than bombing the wings - which would make Brazil one dimensional - or slightly less multi-dimensional.
We saw today that these knockout games are a different animal than any type of club play. Lesser teams can play for extra time and PKs, it is an unfortunate part of all of this. I really think Mexico will feel like defending and countering (cautiously) is their only hope.
I think the best bet here is the under 2.5.
Brazil / Mexico under 2.5 -102 (2.55 units to win 2.5) - most likely outcome is Brazil 1-0 or a later goal for 2-0.
I think I am going to make this short and sweet....
I see absolutely no reason to bet Japan. I cannot make a case for them to do anything except get blown off the field, possibly in a very embarrassing way.
So I will talk about what I think is the best way to bet Belgium, with the current prices.
I think that laying -275 for Belgium to win is fair. Basically, in 3 out 4 games Belgium would win in 90 minutes - and that sounds about right to me.
But based on current form, I do think there is value in laying the goals here, and taking a flyer on Belgium -2 at +225.
It is not because I think Belgium will win by 3 goals, it is because I think at +225 it is the best price on the board to bet Belgium. In fact, I think Belgium won't win by 3 goals - but it is like when you bet MLB - sometimes you have to bet teams you think are going to lose because the price is favorable to perceived results.
Belgium -2 +225 vs Japan (1.2 units to win 2.7)
Predicted final score Belgium 2-0
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Belgium / Japan -
I think I am going to make this short and sweet....
I see absolutely no reason to bet Japan. I cannot make a case for them to do anything except get blown off the field, possibly in a very embarrassing way.
So I will talk about what I think is the best way to bet Belgium, with the current prices.
I think that laying -275 for Belgium to win is fair. Basically, in 3 out 4 games Belgium would win in 90 minutes - and that sounds about right to me.
But based on current form, I do think there is value in laying the goals here, and taking a flyer on Belgium -2 at +225.
It is not because I think Belgium will win by 3 goals, it is because I think at +225 it is the best price on the board to bet Belgium. In fact, I think Belgium won't win by 3 goals - but it is like when you bet MLB - sometimes you have to bet teams you think are going to lose because the price is favorable to perceived results.
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