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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 7:54 AM ET #76

Some housekeeping....

Future Bets:

Uruguay to win group A -130 (risk 1.3 units to win 1 unit

Russia to advance group A – no - +235 (risk .2 unit to win .47 unit

Morocco to advance group B +325 (risk .5 unit to win 1.625 units

Denmark win group C +500 (risk .5 unit to win 2.5 units

Croatia win group D +240 (.2 unit to win .48)

Sweden to advance Group F +130 (.3 unit to win .39)

Korea Republic advance NO group F -525 (1.625 to win .3)

Senegal to advance NO group G -140 (.7 to win .5)

Win WC Spain +630 (.3 units to win 1.89)

Portugal under 5.5 points Group B -125 (.625 to win .5)

Serbia over 3 points -115 (.575 to win .5)

Senegal under 3.5 points +110 (.5 to win .6)

Game Bets:

Current Record - UP 8.04 Down 5.1

1. Saudi Arabia / Russia Under 2 +125 (1 unit to win 1.25 units) - LOSS

2. Uruguay -158 vs Egypt (1.58 unit to win 1 unit) - WIN

3. Morocco +135 vs Iran (2 units to win 2.7) - LOSS

4. Spain -105 vs Portugal (2.1 units to win 2) - LOSS

5. Australia +1.5 vs France +114 (1 unit to win 1.14) - WIN

6. Argentina / Iceland under 2, 2.5 +105 (2 units to win 2.1) - WIN (.5)

7. Denmark +145 vs Peru (3 units to win 4.35) - WIN

8. Croatia / Nigeria under 2, 2.5 -115 (1.15 to win 1) - WIN (.5)

9. Serbia -106 vs Costa Rica (1.59 to win 1.5)

10. Germany -200 vs Mexico (2 to win 1)

11. Brazil / Switzerland no bet

12. Sweden +108 vs S Korea (3 units to win 3.24)

13. Panama / Belgium under 2.5, 3 +103 (1 unit to win 1.03)

14. Tunisia / England no bet

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 8:12 AM ET #77

Couple of random thoughts...

Penalties. Yesterday there was a penalty in all 4 games. I doubt that has ever happened before. Gotta keep an eye on this, as it introduces some randomness - affects totals - and certain teams style of play increases odds of penalties. VAR and the holding in the box rules being enforced are the culprit.

Denmark was so lucky to win. I can't point to many other games where I felt so lucky afterwards. They better sort out their defense, or they are going to be in trouble. But I still see them now with a great chance to win the group, the France match will be a good one.

Egypt needs a win vs Russia - they know a draw wont do as that would put them in a position of needing to beat KSA by a whole bunch and Russia to lose to Uruguay in what will likely be a meaningless game for Uruguay. So look for Egypt to have Salah out there, and to be attacking and open. I really like Egypt to win the match against Russia in the +260 range.

What is with penalty takers? Look at Ronaldos penalties - both in the CL semi final against Juventus and in the Spain game - unstoppable. Why? If you hit the upper 1/3 with power it doesnt matter where you shoot - it is unstoppable. So why do 90% of penalty takers shoot knee high or lower to one side or the other? Cant someone on the team practice these enough to hit upper third every time? And I know the argument of risk - that when you attempt this - you are risking what the Peru PK did - but it is still better than allowing a GK a chance.

Why does the TV feed (from the WC themselves, not Fox to blame) constantly cut to zooms of the players instead of showing open play from a distance? Now that I mention it, you wont be able to unsee it. As play develops, the zoom in on a player with the ball, and ignore the whole rest of the field - half the time you cant see open runners or what is going on. It makes the broadcast choppy and hard to watch, and you lose the most important part of the game - the players without the ball.

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Couple of random thoughts...

Penalties. Yesterday there was a penalty in all 4 games. I doubt that has ever happened before. Gotta keep an eye on this, as it introduces some randomness - affects totals - and certain teams style of play increases odds of penalties. VAR and the holding in the box rules being enforced are the culprit.

Denmark was so lucky to win. I can't point to many other games where I felt so lucky afterwards. They better sort out their defense, or they are going to be in trouble. But I still see them now with a great chance to win the group, the France match will be a good one.

Egypt needs a win vs Russia - they know a draw wont do as that would put them in a position of needing to beat KSA by a whole bunch and Russia to lose to Uruguay in what will likely be a meaningless game for Uruguay. So look for Egypt to have Salah out there, and to be attacking and open. I really like Egypt to win the match against Russia in the +260 range.

What is with penalty takers? Look at Ronaldos penalties - both in the CL semi final against Juventus and in the Spain game - unstoppable. Why? If you hit the upper 1/3 with power it doesnt matter where you shoot - it is unstoppable. So why do 90% of penalty takers shoot knee high or lower to one side or the other? Cant someone on the team practice these enough to hit upper third every time? And I know the argument of risk - that when you attempt this - you are risking what the Peru PK did - but it is still better than allowing a GK a chance.

Why does the TV feed (from the WC themselves, not Fox to blame) constantly cut to zooms of the players instead of showing open play from a distance? Now that I mention it, you wont be able to unsee it. As play develops, the zoom in on a player with the ball, and ignore the whole rest of the field - half the time you cant see open runners or what is going on. It makes the broadcast choppy and hard to watch, and you lose the most important part of the game - the players without the ball.

Silk24

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2017

Posts: 284

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 8:21 AM ET #78

Van,

Glad i bet egypt to beat russia back on wed when they were +305.

Would like your insight on uruguay. I bet them one unit to win group at -130 (wish i did more). Now that they have 3 points they are -200. Thoughts on hitting that again? Group A is just so bad.

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Silk24

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2017

Posts: 284

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 8:23 AM ET #79

As always thanks and best of luck.

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 9:29 AM ET #80

Serbia defending this 1-0 lead way too deep and way too early.....

At the 60 minute mark, they started to have 2 banks of 4 but very deep....

They are too slow to counterattack with any kind of pace.

an_popcorn

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 9:34 AM ET #81

Quote Originally Posted by Silk24:

Van, Glad i bet egypt to beat russia back on wed when they were +305. Would like your insight on uruguay. I bet them one unit to win group at -130 (wish i did more). Now that they have 3 points they are -200. Thoughts on hitting that again? Group A is just so bad.

Same thoughts on Uruguay.... But be careful here.

IF Russia beats Egypt, and IF Uruguay beat KSA with less than a 5 goal difference - you head in to the last game needing a win. Also, depending on likely goal differencial in group B - you might get spain by winning the group.

I think Uruguay is clearly the class of the group, but you must consider that coming in second might not be so bad for them in the end, and the Russia 5 goal differential might be too much to overcome.

I think -200 is a fair price.

peace_5

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 9:56 AM ET #82

How frustrating is Mitrovic?

So good in physical hold up play, but he misses so many chances. Definition of an all or nothing player.

Big win for Serbia there - a future bet also looking very good.

an_horse

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barneybeans

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 9064

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 10:07 AM ET #83

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Same thoughts on Uruguay.... But be careful here.

IF Russia beats Egypt, and IF Uruguay beat KSA with less than a 5 goal difference - you head in to the last game needing a win. Also, depending on likely goal differencial in group B - you might get spain by winning the group.

I think Uruguay is clearly the class of the group, but you must consider that coming in second might not be so bad for them in the end, and the Russia 5 goal differential might be too much to overcome.

I think -200 is a fair price.

peace_5

"Also, depending on likely goal differencial in group B - you might get spain by winning the group."

This is why I struggle to take winner of the group or why I refuse to play the 3rd game in group stage before the first two games have fleshed out - and the other groups are fleshed out - how many times in game 3 have we seen a strong team settle for the tie to lock in 2nd place so that they get the perceived "lesser" opponent in R16?

The pen is mightier than the pigs

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 10:08 AM ET #84

Very wise Barney.

an_praise

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 10:10 AM ET #85

Fox rules to showing highlights:

1. Goals

2. Closeups of fans

3. A limit of 20 seconds of total highlights per game

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Dubfire

Veteran

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 1004

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 10:16 AM ET #86

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Fox rules to showing highlights:

1. Goals

2. Closeups of fans

3. A limit of 20 seconds of total highlights per game

I enjoyed the commentators for Croatia/Nigeria. But outside of that, its been terrible.

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 10:53 AM ET #87

Quote Originally Posted by Dubfire:

I enjoyed the commentators for Croatia/Nigeria. But outside of that, its been terrible.

I understand enjoying it, and you could make an argument that this is the point....

But for anyone who knows the sport - it was a disgrace.

It would be like Will Ferrell announcing and NFL game. Once in a while maybe, but over time it would be horrific. To me, this is too big of an event to experiment with non-experienced announcers.

I envy those in Canada who are getting Ian Darke and other British announcers who do this week in and week out for 30+ years.

peace_5

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I understand enjoying it, and you could make an argument that this is the point....

But for anyone who knows the sport - it was a disgrace.

It would be like Will Ferrell announcing and NFL game. Once in a while maybe, but over time it would be horrific. To me, this is too big of an event to experiment with non-experienced announcers.

I envy those in Canada who are getting Ian Darke and other British announcers who do this week in and week out for 30+ years.

peace_5

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 10:53 AM ET #88

And there it is, Covers 1998 technology. Jeesh.

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AvidGuru

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2015

Posts: 1710

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 10:59 AM ET #89

Nice cash on Serbia (-106) an_clap

Sometimes you need a little luck, and hard work, preparation and a positive mindset don't hurt either.

Enjoy reading your thoughts and appreciate your insight.

I've been looking at Switzerland Over 2.5 Shots on Target (-120)

Do you think the Swiss have enough attack prowess to get this Total Over?

I feel they will be chasing the game and should open up in the 2H...

Or do you feel Switzerland will attempt to hold the fort and grind out a Draw?

I know you're a busy man, but any feedback would be appreciated.

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 11:21 AM ET #90

Quote Originally Posted by AvidGuru:

Nice cash on Serbia (-106) Sometimes you need a little luck, and hard work, preparation and a positive mindset don't hurt either. Enjoy reading your thoughts and appreciate your insight. I've been looking at Switzerland Over 2.5 Shots on Target (-120) Do you think the Swiss have enough attack prowess to get this Total Over? I feel they will be chasing the game and should open up in the 2H... Or do you feel Switzerland will attempt to hold the fort and grind out a Draw? I know you're a busy man, but any feedback would be appreciated.

Probably a good bet.

But keep in mind, a "shot on goal" is one that is not blocked. There are lots of shots that get blocked that do not count, posts and crossbar dont count. Pretty much, a GK save on a ball that would have gone in counts as a SOG.

Your best chance TBH is an early Brazil goal. Because the Swiss will be set up to defend and counter. An early Brazil goal (or two) would force the Swiss to open up.

2.5 seems like a low number to me.

peace_5

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 11:23 AM ET #91

Surprised that Boateng is still the best central defender the Germans can put out there.

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 11:35 AM ET #92

Germany totally undisciplined here - getting ripped to shreds on the break.

Should be worse than 1-0.

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Units_Climbing

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2018

Posts: 9

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 11:37 AM ET #93

Mexico is faster, more skilled. Germany is living on past success

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AvidGuru

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2015

Posts: 1710

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 11:38 AM ET #94

peace_5

Forgive my intrusion, but do Shot Totals Props include Added Time (90+) ?

Thanks again and best of luck the rest of the way!

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 11:43 AM ET #95

Great gameplan here by Mexico.

Packed back deep, allow possession for Germany, and counter with blazing speed.

The Germans are exposed. They will need to score in tight space. This is not going to be easy.

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vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 59885

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 11:44 AM ET #96

Quote Originally Posted by AvidGuru:

Forgive my intrusion, but do Shot Totals Props include Added Time (90+) ? Thanks again and best of luck the rest of the way!

Yes.

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barneybeans

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 9064

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 11:57 AM ET #97

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Germany totally undisciplined here - getting ripped to shreds on the break.

Should be worse than 1-0.

I've got the under 3 today and had Mexico 1H (In another thread of course). This should be a 2-1 game right now maybe even 3-1 in favor of Mexico - how many SOLID super fast counters did Mexico have 1st half? 5? 6? Germany had 3 or 4 quality chances where one of those usually gets in.

Ochoa always steps it up big in the big games.

So right now seeing this 1st half unfold with my under 3 I'm sweating like a person whóre in church.

The pen is mightier than the pigs

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AvidGuru

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2015

Posts: 1710

Posted: Jun. 17, 2018 - 12:10 PM ET #98

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by Dubfire:

I enjoyed the commentators for Croatia/Nigeria. But outside of that, its been terrible.

I understand enjoying it, and you could make an argument that this is the point.... But for anyone who knows the sport - it was a disgrace. It would be like Will Ferrell announcing and NFL game. Once in a while maybe, but over time it would be horrific. To me, this is too big of an event to experiment with non-experienced announcers. I envy those in Canada who are getting Ian Darke and other British announcers who do this week in and week out for 30+ years.

Did not realize how Lucky I was in Canada until, out of curiosity, I tuned into FOX's "coverage" for 20 minutes..

Typical American Media arrogant prideful "anything you can do, I can do BETTER" mentality...

Forgive me, these commens do not reflect my feelings toward the USA general population

0

Did not realize how Lucky I was in Canada until, out of curiosity, I tuned into FOX's "coverage" for 20 minutes..

Typical American Media arrogant prideful "anything you can do, I can do BETTER" mentality...

Forgive me, these commens do not reflect my feelings toward the USA general population

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