Breeders Cup 11/4-11/5

Link for PP's

https://www.equibase.com/breederscuplanding.cfm

https://www.whas11.com/news/local/Line-up-for-the-Breeders-Cup-announced-132980423.html

Gate 12 = Uncle Mo 5-2

Gate 6 = Ice Box

I gotta think that Pletcher or Zito get this one...idk

I like Flat Out, SEE AVATAR       

not critcizing just curious of the rationale behind Ice Box?  he hasn't won since March of 2010 when he clunked up and clipped a weak group in the Florida Derby essentially passing modest horses that were completely out of gas.  yes, he did run 2nd in the Derby but they went in 1:37 and change and 2:04.45 so again same scenario where he scooped up some dead bodies late.  in that Derby he was 24 lengths off a tepid clip as well (same track and distance as the Classic). 

again not criticizing but i think the tote will be accurate here leaving him up there drifting around at least 50/1.  on paper (I realize anything is possible in this game) he does not appear to have the tools and physical skills to come close here UNLESS the race absolutely completely fell apart.  his speed figs are significantly below some others and if you view his PPs his style leaves him with quite a bit of work to do late . . . but he hasn't shown a closing kick all year.  it looks like three races back they tried to get him close and that resulted in him folding late with nothing left (against optional N3X horses obviously way, way weaker than this race Saturday).  i can see him about 15 lengths behind Mo and Baffert's horse when those two hit the quarter pole or maybe 18 lengths back, but without the closing kick to make any noise late.  i'd love to have a big bomb on a Pick 4 ticket but this horse appears simply way too slow for this particular race.

I am fading Mo and leaving off P4 and no chance in hell a win bet at chalkie.  if he beats me so be it.  i'll play this Pick4 with four straight G1 races and a huge pool worth a shot since at least there are legit horses with some level of consistency in each race.  wouldn't shock me if Mo ran up the track actually.  he should be out front or just off of it but I can't back him at this distance with a couple in here that should fire at this distance.  to my knowledge an Indian Charlie has never won a G2 or G1 at 9 furlongs or longer.  everyone will drool over that 118 beyer but that was one turn, a G2, and on a muddy surface (not that unusual for horses to hit career high number on wet strip and not match it again).  but he has matched and exceeded his 2YO figs as a 3YO so i give him a lot of credit for that but the distance is a big concern for me.  Baffert's horse could be right with him coming down the lane look how he dug in last out going 9F in 1:09, 1:34 and change, and 1:47.36.  not sure if Game on Dude can win but i believe he will fire and get out there showing zip Baffert snapped three quick moves into him after that last race and he has nothing to lose by telling Chantal to send him and run him until his eyeballs pop out.  my point is that it could prevent Mo from trying to shake clear down the lane and then oh by the way a few others will be bringing it late. 

just my humble two cents.   

I still have to make a betting strategy for Fri & Sat, probably P3's, P4's, some Win bets and maybe some small exactas and/or Tri's.

I have narrowed down my contenders :

Juv Spr  
Secret Circle, Vexor, Jake Mo, Shumoos

Juv F Turf
Stopshoppingmaria, Dayatthespa, Dear Lavinia, Pure Gossip

F & M Spr
Turbulent Descent, Great Hot, Musical Romance, Switch, Tanda

Juv F
Grace Hall, Candrea, Miss Netta?

F & M Turf 
Nahrain, Announce, Misty For Me, Aruna??

Ladies' Classic
Ultra Blend, Royal Delta, Miss Match??, Pachattack??

Pretty close to making Grace Hall my best play for Fri. 

Contenders for Fri card next,

I should be around rest of day if anyone has any questions or wants to talk about any races or horses.

11/5

Marathon
Eldaafer, A.U. Miner, Brigantin, Cease??

Juv Turf
looks to be a very tough race and I should look @ a bit more but;
Caspar Netscher, Fantastic Song, Shkspeare Shaliyah - so far.

Spr
Jackson Bend, Force Freeze, Amazombie

Turf Spr
Havelock, Broken Dreams, Regally Ready - looking @ this race some more.

Dirt Mile
Caleb's Posse, Wilburn

Turf
A) St Nicholas Abbey, Sea Moon
B) Midday, Sarafina

Juv
A) Hansen, Alpha, Drill
B) Creative Cause, Optimizer

Turf Mile
Strong Suit, Byword, Goldikova, Courageous Cat?

Classic
Flat Out
Stay Thirsty
To Honor and Serve
Headache?

I'm going to do some more work on Sat card.

Horses that I did like and down graded due to post draw:

Somali Lemonade (14pp), Caracortado (13pp), Chamberlain Bridge (14pp), Turallure (13pp)

For the second year in a row, European connections have clashed with Churchill Downs officials over turf course policy, with Thursday’s confrontation between three trainers, track maintenance crew, and Churchill outriders coming after Churchill canceled turf training following a short period of morning rain. At the center of the battle was trainer Michael Stoute, whose Breeders’ Cup Turf entrant, Sea Moon, had been scheduled for a five- or six-furlong grass workout Thursday.

In 2010, Stoute voiced concern throughout Breeders’ Cup week about the condition of the Churchill course, and Workforce, who would have been heavily favored to win the Turf for Juddmonte Farms, was scratched the morning of the race.

The problem Thursday began when rain started falling around 9:30 a.m., just a few minutes before Churchill’s turf course was scheduled to open for late-morning training. Minutes after the light to moderate showers began, word came that Churchill had decided not to open the course. Churchill typically cancels turf training as soon as there is any rain. Butch Lehr, track superintendent, said he had made multiple announcements earlier Thursday morning that turf training would be subject to weather conditions.

Sea Moon had come onto the track with race jockey Ryan Moore about 15 minutes before the rain began. The pair walked clockwise from the backstretch to the front-side and visited the paddock, walked back to the gap where they had come onto the track, and were waiting there for the turf to open when the rain came. Two more Europeans who were scheduled to train on turf, Strong Suit and Elusive Kate, soon joined Sea Moon, while 2-year-old Farraaj, another scheduled turf-trainer, was already out on the main track.

The European horsemen, including agents for the International Racing Bureau, seemed to believe that Churchill officials could be persuaded to change their mind and open the grass course. Little rain had fallen, dogs (orange traffic cones) were set up in the middle of the course to protect inside paths, and the inner turf rail has been out all week, keeping the innermost paths on the course pristine for BC races. Considering these factors, the European horsemen – who train all the time in wet conditions, but not on racecourses – strongly felt they should be allowed onto the course.

American trainer Graham Motion had horses to train on turf, too, but he quickly changed plans, letting Aruna, Shared Account, and State of Play gallop on dirt. English trainer Roger Varian soon did the same with Farraaj.

But the others persisted. While Sea Moon, Elusive Kate, and Strong Suit walked back and forth between the three-quarters and five-eighths pole on the backststretch, their human connections spread out across the track, trying to determine a course of action. Eventually, Stoute, Gosden, and a couple others crossed to the inside of the dirt track and went to the part of the rail that opens to allow access onto the grass course, attempting to make their way onto the turf. A Churchill employee came running from the infield across the turf course and adamantly communicated that the group could not pass, and a heated confrontation began. Soon, two Churchill outriders arrived on the scene to block the path of the Europeans. Meanwhile, there still were a couple non-BC horses training on the main track, and as they jogged the wrong way up the backstretch, their way was obstructed by the gaggle of angry humans. Head outrider Greg Blasi, angered at the group’s insistence, shouted them back to the outer rail.

Finally, the Europeans gave up. Strong Suit eventually cantered once around the main track, but assistant trainer Richard Hannon Jr., who said Strong Suit was to have had a serious turf gallop, was very displeased.

“Really, this has ruined our chances,” Hannon Jr. said.

Sea Moon returned to the quarantine barn without training on dirt. Stoute, queried during the stand-off whether he’d consider working Sea Moon on dirt, made a sweeping gesture toward the main track, chewed up after a busy morning training session. “Would you work a horse on this?” he asked, rhetorically?

Still, this year’s tiff should wind up having less dire consequences than the 2010 turf battle: No one was talking – yet, at least – about taking Sea Moon out of Saturday’s $3 million Turf.

Good looking card. Bol.

11/4

CD  R5: Pk 3    #6 / #2,4,5,9,12 / #2,3,5,6,8

              EX   #6 / #5,8 

Exacta hit, alive in pk 3's 5 x 5

Lets get the #5 home to hit another pk3

R9: DD  #5,6,7,8,12 / #6,7
       Win  # 5

sitting on doubles