Breeders Cup 11/4-11/5

not critcizing just curious of the rationale behind Ice Box?  he hasn't won since March of 2010 when he clunked up and clipped a weak group in the Florida Derby essentially passing modest horses that were completely out of gas.  yes, he did run 2nd in the Derby but they went in 1:37 and change and 2:04.45 so again same scenario where he scooped up some dead bodies late.  in that Derby he was 24 lengths off a tepid clip as well (same track and distance as the Classic). 

again not criticizing but i think the tote will be accurate here leaving him up there drifting around at least 50/1.  on paper (I realize anything is possible in this game) he does not appear to have the tools and physical skills to come close here UNLESS the race absolutely completely fell apart.  his speed figs are significantly below some others and if you view his PPs his style leaves him with quite a bit of work to do late . . . but he hasn't shown a closing kick all year.  it looks like three races back they tried to get him close and that resulted in him folding late with nothing left (against optional N3X horses obviously way, way weaker than this race Saturday).  i can see him about 15 lengths behind Mo and Baffert's horse when those two hit the quarter pole or maybe 18 lengths back, but without the closing kick to make any noise late.  i'd love to have a big bomb on a Pick 4 ticket but this horse appears simply way too slow for this particular race.

I am fading Mo and leaving off P4 and no chance in hell a win bet at chalkie.  if he beats me so be it.  i'll play this Pick4 with four straight G1 races and a huge pool worth a shot since at least there are legit horses with some level of consistency in each race.  wouldn't shock me if Mo ran up the track actually.  he should be out front or just off of it but I can't back him at this distance with a couple in here that should fire at this distance.  to my knowledge an Indian Charlie has never won a G2 or G1 at 9 furlongs or longer.  everyone will drool over that 118 beyer but that was one turn, a G2, and on a muddy surface (not that unusual for horses to hit career high number on wet strip and not match it again).  but he has matched and exceeded his 2YO figs as a 3YO so i give him a lot of credit for that but the distance is a big concern for me.  Baffert's horse could be right with him coming down the lane look how he dug in last out going 9F in 1:09, 1:34 and change, and 1:47.36.  not sure if Game on Dude can win but i believe he will fire and get out there showing zip Baffert snapped three quick moves into him after that last race and he has nothing to lose by telling Chantal to send him and run him until his eyeballs pop out.  my point is that it could prevent Mo from trying to shake clear down the lane and then oh by the way a few others will be bringing it late. 

just my humble two cents.