6/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern. beyond the usual risk of variance the biggest risk here is if this 5F is too short but I'm willing to take that chance. this guy has really gotten a new lease on life as a turf sprinter closing like a rocket last two at 5.5F and really moving with strong late energy and running a 97 both times. has come back before in less than a month and been effective. there's four or five in here that look to be gunning early and i think he could get a faster clip in front of him than he did last out in Lexington. improving pattern cutting back to sprints and looks fit and ready to go again hopefully he moves early enough. if he fires he should be rolling late. 0.75 units.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Friday:
churchill race 6
G3 4YO and Up 5F (Turf)
6 WP
6/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern. beyond the usual risk of variance the biggest risk here is if this 5F is too short but I'm willing to take that chance. this guy has really gotten a new lease on life as a turf sprinter closing like a rocket last two at 5.5F and really moving with strong late energy and running a 97 both times. has come back before in less than a month and been effective. there's four or five in here that look to be gunning early and i think he could get a faster clip in front of him than he did last out in Lexington. improving pattern cutting back to sprints and looks fit and ready to go again hopefully he moves early enough. if he fires he should be rolling late. 0.75 units.
12/1 ml. recency, pace, surface, pattern, speed. i'm taking a shot here i see this ten horse field as a lot more open than the tote board might suggest. 4, 5, 7, and 10 will get all the attention and I think they are all potentially beatable based on distance, speed, recency, and late speed. this 9's best races by far were the debut and the two that came off little breaks. that's what she has here in this race. has a race at Louisville going 6.5F where she looked good moving home with energy and got and 84 which stacks up competitively here and others need to prove it beyond 6F as well. last out blasted cupcakes at calder but was visibly jogging and geared down late. i'm giving her a shot to sit just off the pace, fire off the freshening, handle the distance, and be pretty competitive late in this race. 0.75 units.
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churchill 8
G3 3YO Fillies 7F
9 WP
12/1 ml. recency, pace, surface, pattern, speed. i'm taking a shot here i see this ten horse field as a lot more open than the tote board might suggest. 4, 5, 7, and 10 will get all the attention and I think they are all potentially beatable based on distance, speed, recency, and late speed. this 9's best races by far were the debut and the two that came off little breaks. that's what she has here in this race. has a race at Louisville going 6.5F where she looked good moving home with energy and got and 84 which stacks up competitively here and others need to prove it beyond 6F as well. last out blasted cupcakes at calder but was visibly jogging and geared down late. i'm giving her a shot to sit just off the pace, fire off the freshening, handle the distance, and be pretty competitive late in this race. 0.75 units.
race 8 a few in my view have essentially no chance and here's why i'm willing to swing against the four favs:
4 - 91 in debut going just 5F at the spa and has pletch/velazquez. off the layoff last out ran an 87 but that was 6F and on the inner strip and she had to try pretty hard to get that done as a 2/5 shot. now she's gotta go 7/8ths against much better flesh. i'll fade her and roll the dice.
5 - 70 in debut at the each and then flopped as a heavy chalk at oaklawn and comments say "not enuf" though there was a little trouble. that was also 6F. goes 7/8ths today and does not look dominant but will get bet with baffert and rosie. i'll try to beat her.
7 - ran a 92 going 7F at sam houston and that would win this race friday but i'm not sure I believe that fig. tried a G2 last out around two turns and had nothing late and was at FG anther place where i question the figs. other than those looks very modest. i'll kake her beat me.
10 - off since winning a slow BC Juvey back at a grueling sprint distance of 7/8ths. ran 80, 79, and 81 last three spins last year for trainer that can crank them to fitness. yes she's a 3YO now but she didn't really improve last year and I will fade giving her the chance to not improve here and have to deal with the layoff. had she improved throughout her 2YO season on figs I would view it a lot differently.
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race 8 a few in my view have essentially no chance and here's why i'm willing to swing against the four favs:
4 - 91 in debut going just 5F at the spa and has pletch/velazquez. off the layoff last out ran an 87 but that was 6F and on the inner strip and she had to try pretty hard to get that done as a 2/5 shot. now she's gotta go 7/8ths against much better flesh. i'll fade her and roll the dice.
5 - 70 in debut at the each and then flopped as a heavy chalk at oaklawn and comments say "not enuf" though there was a little trouble. that was also 6F. goes 7/8ths today and does not look dominant but will get bet with baffert and rosie. i'll try to beat her.
7 - ran a 92 going 7F at sam houston and that would win this race friday but i'm not sure I believe that fig. tried a G2 last out around two turns and had nothing late and was at FG anther place where i question the figs. other than those looks very modest. i'll kake her beat me.
10 - off since winning a slow BC Juvey back at a grueling sprint distance of 7/8ths. ran 80, 79, and 81 last three spins last year for trainer that can crank them to fitness. yes she's a 3YO now but she didn't really improve last year and I will fade giving her the chance to not improve here and have to deal with the layoff. had she improved throughout her 2YO season on figs I would view it a lot differently.
10/1 ml. late speed, distance, stamina, pattern, surface. i'm taking a shot here as well and what jumps out at me about this race is the lack of consistency, late speed, and iffy stamina amongst the entire field essentially. some have run numbers that would make them tough here but not consistently and they have all been vulnerable late at least once before. given that I'm on this gal that comes in fresh and fit and hasn't run a bad one yet though she has a ton to prove here. has been very competitive against males out to *10F and handled different ratings of turf. solid sequence of drills here for brown who is 29% from across the pond, 29% off a 61-180 day break, and 26% on turf overall. drops some weight and gets lasix first time which are not huge to me but certainly not negatives. also see she rallied strongly in an extended sprint and got herself close when going further in distance. i'll give her a chance to mow these down late. 0.75 units.
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louisville race 9
150K Non-Graded Stakes 3YO Fillies 8.5F (Turf)
5 WP
10/1 ml. late speed, distance, stamina, pattern, surface. i'm taking a shot here as well and what jumps out at me about this race is the lack of consistency, late speed, and iffy stamina amongst the entire field essentially. some have run numbers that would make them tough here but not consistently and they have all been vulnerable late at least once before. given that I'm on this gal that comes in fresh and fit and hasn't run a bad one yet though she has a ton to prove here. has been very competitive against males out to *10F and handled different ratings of turf. solid sequence of drills here for brown who is 29% from across the pond, 29% off a 61-180 day break, and 26% on turf overall. drops some weight and gets lasix first time which are not huge to me but certainly not negatives. also see she rallied strongly in an extended sprint and got herself close when going further in distance. i'll give her a chance to mow these down late. 0.75 units.
8/1 ml. recency, pace, speed, pattern, distance, stamina. really like how this gal is moving the right way and improving each time out. couple of easy maintenance drills off the last suggest to me she's fit and ready and staying on her toes. already proven at 9F and visually looked like she had plenty of gas in the tank late. i know it may look like she "has to wire them" but i don't think that's the case. i see her potentially just off it early from this outside slot and gliding forward to gain position on the backside. handled two different dirt surfaces as well with figs that are rising in a smooth and reasonable manner. i'll take a shot. 1.0 units.
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churchill downs race 11
G1 3YO Fillies 9F
11 WP
8/1 ml. recency, pace, speed, pattern, distance, stamina. really like how this gal is moving the right way and improving each time out. couple of easy maintenance drills off the last suggest to me she's fit and ready and staying on her toes. already proven at 9F and visually looked like she had plenty of gas in the tank late. i know it may look like she "has to wire them" but i don't think that's the case. i see her potentially just off it early from this outside slot and gliding forward to gain position on the backside. handled two different dirt surfaces as well with figs that are rising in a smooth and reasonable manner. i'll take a shot. 1.0 units.
here in race 11 the Kentucky Oaks we have a bulky field and a likely 3/5 shot. I understand the whole world will see her last two figs and think she's a lock. i'm willing to swing against her and make her prove it.
- has a 100 and 106 last two spins. both of these are way, way out of her pattern from last year and both were at FG with huge margins of victory. i'm not saying they are completely bogus but i am saying it's possible those are inflated somewhat. hey if she runs 106 going 9F she'll win by five here easy. but, those were both at one track which i tend to question more so to me it's possible maybe she isn't that fast and i damn sure won't pay 3/5 just to see her back that up - those figs just vaulted higher out of nowhere essentially. December was not that long ago and granted on cushion track but she was 30 points slower - both of those were 8.5F with zero pressure and Friday is 9F - has to beat 12 others from the 13 post at likely 3/5 odds
I'll try to beat her and if she smokes me that's fine.
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here in race 11 the Kentucky Oaks we have a bulky field and a likely 3/5 shot. I understand the whole world will see her last two figs and think she's a lock. i'm willing to swing against her and make her prove it.
- has a 100 and 106 last two spins. both of these are way, way out of her pattern from last year and both were at FG with huge margins of victory. i'm not saying they are completely bogus but i am saying it's possible those are inflated somewhat. hey if she runs 106 going 9F she'll win by five here easy. but, those were both at one track which i tend to question more so to me it's possible maybe she isn't that fast and i damn sure won't pay 3/5 just to see her back that up - those figs just vaulted higher out of nowhere essentially. December was not that long ago and granted on cushion track but she was 30 points slower - both of those were 8.5F with zero pressure and Friday is 9F - has to beat 12 others from the 13 post at likely 3/5 odds
I'll try to beat her and if she smokes me that's fine.
10/1 ml. late speed, distance, stamina, pattern, surface. i'm taking a shot here as well and what jumps out at me about this race is the lack of consistency, late speed, and iffy stamina amongst the entire field essentially. some have run numbers that would make them tough here but not consistently and they have all been vulnerable late at least once before. given that I'm on this gal that comes in fresh and fit and hasn't run a bad one yet though she has a ton to prove here. has been very competitive against males out to *10F and handled different ratings of turf. solid sequence of drills here for brown who is 29% from across the pond, 29% off a 61-180 day break, and 26% on turf overall. drops some weight and gets lasix first time which are not huge to me but certainly not negatives. also see she rallied strongly in an extended sprint and got herself close when going further in distance. i'll give her a chance to mow these down late. 0.75 units.
10 - scratched. uggghhhh, likely chalkie. still others that are pace pressing types and capable of coughing it up late. hopefully price stays decent on the 5.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
louisville race 9
150K Non-Graded Stakes 3YO Fillies 8.5F (Turf)
5 WP
10/1 ml. late speed, distance, stamina, pattern, surface. i'm taking a shot here as well and what jumps out at me about this race is the lack of consistency, late speed, and iffy stamina amongst the entire field essentially. some have run numbers that would make them tough here but not consistently and they have all been vulnerable late at least once before. given that I'm on this gal that comes in fresh and fit and hasn't run a bad one yet though she has a ton to prove here. has been very competitive against males out to *10F and handled different ratings of turf. solid sequence of drills here for brown who is 29% from across the pond, 29% off a 61-180 day break, and 26% on turf overall. drops some weight and gets lasix first time which are not huge to me but certainly not negatives. also see she rallied strongly in an extended sprint and got herself close when going further in distance. i'll give her a chance to mow these down late. 0.75 units.
10 - scratched. uggghhhh, likely chalkie. still others that are pace pressing types and capable of coughing it up late. hopefully price stays decent on the 5.
Hey Atlas, I really like the speed of My Miss Sophia. I think with Castellano aboard she can wire the field.
H - thanks boss, same to you.
Rob - sure I think she "can" potentially wire them but the key for me is that I don't think she has to wire them. breaking outside at this distance i'm projecting she can relax a little early and get very prominent along the backside. good luck pal.
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Quote Originally Posted by Rob2772:
Hey Atlas, I really like the speed of My Miss Sophia. I think with Castellano aboard she can wire the field.
H - thanks boss, same to you.
Rob - sure I think she "can" potentially wire them but the key for me is that I don't think she has to wire them. breaking outside at this distance i'm projecting she can relax a little early and get very prominent along the backside. good luck pal.
5/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern, distance, stamina. gradually improving stiff here amongst other modest fellas comes in fresh and fit and ready to me. working nicely prior to last where he ran an 83 in a one turn mile and was showing good late energy. freshened a little since comes back with a few solid drills and looks to be heading the right way. like the cutback from one turn mile to 7/8ths. like his improvement on pace as well. big field, pretty wide open, i'm giving him a shot with his combo of speed/pace/stamina in this scenario. 0.75 units.
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Saturday:
church 5
8 WP
5/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern, distance, stamina. gradually improving stiff here amongst other modest fellas comes in fresh and fit and ready to me. working nicely prior to last where he ran an 83 in a one turn mile and was showing good late energy. freshened a little since comes back with a few solid drills and looks to be heading the right way. like the cutback from one turn mile to 7/8ths. like his improvement on pace as well. big field, pretty wide open, i'm giving him a shot with his combo of speed/pace/stamina in this scenario. 0.75 units.
churchill race 7 - passing. G1 going 7/8ths but smallish field size with scratches and four horses between 6/5 and 7/2 likely. tough to see an exacta outside of those 4 so the opportunity here is diminished in my view.
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churchill race 7 - passing. G1 going 7/8ths but smallish field size with scratches and four horses between 6/5 and 7/2 likely. tough to see an exacta outside of those 4 so the opportunity here is diminished in my view.
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