Keeneland - 10/30 + 10/31

Question

friday:race 1OC 80K/N3X 3YO &amp; Up 6F6 WP8/1 ml. late speed, pace, pattern.  maybe i&#x27;m wrong but playing this one to be pretty brisk up front and crowded - have 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7 all wanting to be on that lead or pressing it.  the 6 has races where he very effectively rallied strongly from way back at this distance.  the problem is although this bum is a solid 10/23 lifetime in the exacta he has thrown in some real clunkers though I note the ugly runs tend to follow his best efforts which is not the case here.  he has also responded twice very nicely off a freshening (93 fig easy win against putrid field, and 95 at tampa in a big field where he rolled home late like a rocket to just miss).  ran a 100 three back mowing down some cream puffs at thistle.  so, which horse shows up?  trainer is 21% overall and 27% on dirt and also owns a piece of this bum.  doesn&#x27;t have to be in this race and knows what weekend it is and who is entering horses.  been away about seven weeks now off a second where he closed a lot of ground late but the winner wired them untouched.  i&#x27;m taking a swing that he is ready and pretty good chance he has the entire field in front of him setting up his late run if he fires.  0.75 units.

atlasshrugged · Answer

friday:race 1OC 80K/N3X 3YO &amp; Up 6F6 WP8/1 ml. late speed, pace, pattern.  maybe i&#x27;m wrong but playing this one to be pretty brisk up front and crowded - have 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7 all wanting to be on that lead or pressing it.  the 6 has races where he very effectively rallied strongly from way back at this distance.  the problem is although this bum is a solid 10/23 lifetime in the exacta he has thrown in some real clunkers though I note the ugly runs tend to follow his best efforts which is not the case here.  he has also responded twice very nicely off a freshening (93 fig easy win against putrid field, and 95 at tampa in a big field where he rolled home late like a rocket to just miss).  ran a 100 three back mowing down some cream puffs at thistle.  so, which horse shows up?  trainer is 21% overall and 27% on dirt and also owns a piece of this bum.  doesn&#x27;t have to be in this race and knows what weekend it is and who is entering horses.  been away about seven weeks now off a second where he closed a lot of ground late but the winner wired them untouched.  i&#x27;m taking a swing that he is ready and pretty good chance he has the entire field in front of him setting up his late run if he fires.  0.75 units.

atlasshrugged · Answer

race 2 - passingrace 3 - passingrace 4 - passing.  considering 10 not sure if fast enough but he&#x27;ll be rallying feel the figs on favs are over-inflated.

atlasshrugged · Answer

race 5G2 3YO &amp; Up 9F3 WP10/1 ml.  pace, speed, pattern, trainer.  looking for a rebound run here with the bold and gutsy placement of this up and down stiff.  if this horse fires back at this distance he may have a pretty nice pace advantage.  the 6 and the 9 can go early and probably want to but on his game i give the edge to the 3 in what could be a race with a tepid overall pace.  ran 109 G2 9F wire job, 109 one turn mile crushed the field, and 104 and 105 sandwiched in between . . . . .  then he totally sh*t the bed.  been away for a couple months working steadily and looks like he tightened the screws a bit in the two drills prior to the last drill.  trainer is 22% off a 61-180 day break and 19% in graded stakes (first race for pletch off a break he ran a 109).  back to a two turn race here and he may be better going longer than 8F like he is here.  if he can lead them around going about 1:11 i like his chances.  if he&#x27;s shuffled back well then ya not so much.  0.75 units.

atlasshrugged · Answer

warning if you prefer playing horses strictly off top efforts or close to their best then fade this 3 in race 5.  he got killed by a combined 30 lengths or so in his last two and in his last they backed him up to 7/8ths and he suc*ed.  i&#x27;m playing the move back out in distance and off a break can potentially spring him back to life particularly if the pace is muted here as i suspect.

atlasshrugged · Answer

saturday: race 11G1 Breeder&#x27;s Cup Classic1 - this is a very, very nice horse but two things jump out at me here in this specific scenario: A) tough to deny he simply runs best at belmont, and B) he doesn&#x27;t explode home late he grinds away from mid-pack.  so, with the scratch of the gal and potentially controlling pace up front will he be able to catch the leaders?  last year he also popped perhaps his best race in the JCGC only to run a muted race in the Classic.  Did he pop his cherry last out?  is there another one left and is it good enough?  i&#x27;ll probably toss.

atlasshrugged · Answer

2 - this horse is very intriguing to me here in this spot. i like the strong improvement he has shown overall and especially how he's kept himself much closer to the pace hitting the far turn. everyone on the planet says he got a "dream setup" at the Spa but i don't see it that way (how is 48 and 1:11 and change a brutal pace that created a meltdown???). i think he earned that win and people want excuses for pharoah. distance should not be a problem here and i like that he's trained up to this and pointed directly to this race. i'm using him in some fashion i hope he's 20/1.

3 - this is another very nice horse managed exceptionally well by the trainer that always seems to show up with a solid effort. i just don't know if he is fast enough and i don't know if there is another move forward. this is his 9th spin of the year and 13th overall and instincts tell me we probably have seen his best already. maybe he burns me but it looks like he needs a few to flop and he could then scoop it up late. also - he as well does not explode down the lane for the win he kinda grinds it around the track and keeps plugging away (and by this I mean relative to this level of race of course he'd "look" like he's flying against stiffs).

atlasshrugged · Answer

4 - well, he&#x27;s the TC winner so there you have it race over.  might not be that easy at 3/5 on the tote in a G1 with older fellas.  with the scratch of the gal obviously one less horse that could potentially go with him or stalk and pounce turning for home.  everyone can see that.  the 7 and the 5 may be the only ones willing to go out front with him.  the reason why i won&#x27;t tee him up at 3/5 is that i&#x27;m not sold he is faster than this entire field and his price will be horrendous.  he has eight two turn spins on dirt and granted he is extremely consistent but he has basically run 109 once and everything else between 100-105.  now i&#x27;m not saying he&#x27;s a bum he&#x27;s a brilliant horse just not a walkover here in this specific situation.  you can say he&#x27;s gonna take a step forward and that may be true but I could say his trainer is outstanding with young horses and he basically developed very rapidly and has stayed about the same.  did they not crank him up for the Kentucky Derby and TC because those seem like important races.  he can definitely win and that&#x27;s cool if he does but i&#x27;m fading him not simply to try and be cute but based on the numbers.

atlasshrugged · Answer

5 - like this guy quite a bit hoping he doesn&#x27;t get bet too much.  as i mentioned previously literally every person on Earth can see that the loss of beholder helps the 4 and that is true, but that does not mean there aren&#x27;t other threats.  this horse ripped off five straight G1 and then skipped huge purses due to soft/wet turf to point to this.  the euros are not dummies they know that to win the Classic they need a horse with some legit pace (Toast of New York last year had "zero chance" on dirt but ran an absolutely tremendous race).  looking at the comments you see this guy "quickened between foes", "in command", "strongly to lead over 1F out" and other comments.  he&#x27;s never been past a mile so he has been flashing some of the skills he would definitely need to run big on dirt here.  last was basically a workout on squishy green and then sent over to keeneland.  euros also tend to know how to keep their very high caliber runners at a very high level of fitness.  he&#x27;s basically off a long layoff and he has to go out to 10F AND over to dirt - all things that should keep his price high.  i may look like a fool afterwards but i am using this guy he might just run very big.

atlasshrugged · Answer

6 - feel that this fella is a bit overmatched here though i project him to fire if that makes any sense. last two seemed to have exposed him as he regressed adn was a bit lost in G1 company. he didn't quit but found himself quite a ways back without the tools to close strongly enough to contend. he would have to not only run back to his best ever (likely against this class?) but also take a notable step forward. we've seen him eighteen times already i'm not convinced he has it. huge bomb winner if the entire field collapses late.

7 - this guy really, really woke up last out or the fig is inflated or a combo of the two. on august 1st with a clean break and trip he ran a 94 then on sep 26 he runs a 111. he is lightly raced and maybe he is a new animal and has more to show us. the issue here is that his only chance to hit the board is to either go with AP or try and sit right behind him. if he does that how much gas in the tank will he have late going 10F? i'm going to play he'll be on fumes in the final furlong and fade.

atlasshrugged · Answer

8 - 5YO fella gonna be about 80/1 on the tote here. he's in because its paid for with his Gold Cup win in Arcadia but i can't create a scenario where he is competitive. his recency is atrocious with back to back awful races. he is overmatched on pace and he doesn't seem to finish with energy. i can't see it.

9 - i expect this horse to be ready to fire here and he certainly has run figs that make him very competitive in this race. the two concerns I have are distance and pace. most assume that if someone closes strongly at a distance then they automatically can "stretch out" to the next logical distance. in my view in a 10F dirt race it's better to be either right on the pace or at least somewhat close. this horse has not proven he can do that yet. i'm not so concerned about the dud last out because the trainer has gotten him to bounce back very huge off a cash incinerator. last out may have been a test to try and stay closer and it flopped. if he reverts to dropping anchor good lord he might be 15+ back hitting the half mile pole. not sure yet what i'm doing with him.

atlasshrugged · Answer

10 - scratched. for covers police force record keeping purposes i was going to fade. not sold she can ship and win and definitely not sold she can ship into the Classic with males and duplicate that 114 (if that 114 was even legit). she seems to always run 98-101 yet a 114 shows up hmmmm.

fairly decent classic i wish the field size was bigger to elevate prices on horses with "no shot".

atlasshrugged · Answer

back to friday:race 6G1 BC Juvenile Turf 2YO 8F (Turf)5 WPS30/1 ml.  recency, late speed, pattern, pace.  this one looks extremely wide open to me obviously the 14 horse field can help that.  i&#x27;m going bombs away here and fading all the euros.  we&#x27;ve got a few in here that want to go early to include a couple euros and this is a bulky crew around tight turns.  this 5 won the debut around two turns from midpack and then tried a G3 that in my view is being perceived incorrectly perhaps.  i think this 5 was the best horse that day and tried to kick it home with zip and was blocked substantially and in the form it looks like a modest 4th place finish.  i&#x27;m giving him a shot here to settle and put in another big late move and hopefully find some space late.  got a 79 that day and most of these are at 80ish or below.  only two spins so far, some snappy drills since the last, five weeks rest, and then supplemented into this G1 with fourteen horses. he still has upside in my view.  let&#x27;s see what he&#x27;s got.  1.25 units.

atlasshrugged · Answer

10 gonna get played has the high fig for the americans. ran 85 on good green but that was one turn and final quarter in 25 and 3. he's beatable potentially. the 8 won the local prep and got an 80. others in the 70's and punching 80ish. i'll play that as this being very wide open.

"anchor race" for the euros seems to be the G1 at longchamp on october 4th. that was a blanket finish with six horses all bunched up. maybe it was a great race but maybe not. the 6 has already run six times and hasn't looked invincible yet so how much will he improve here maybe he's a bit outta gas. the 14 is the hype horse given the trainer and his impressive win last out. that was on synthetic and at 7/8ths in a restricted stakes and only three weeks ago. if he comes back quick and beats me from the 14 hole so be it at 7/2.

atlasshrugged · Answer

just printed out Saturday and looked at all BC races for the first time. i only see three scenarios where an odds on fav looks pretty tough.

liam's map - IF he fires his race and if Valid does not pester him too much he certainly could be gone.

songbrid - looks like she can run all day. probably 3/5 and looks ready to roll here. also has legit pace here. has to misfire to lose OR another jumps up in a very big way.

golden horn - obviously this is one classy fella. that whole Arc-BC Turf thing is legit though. he fired big last two against tough fellas over there and this is his third in eight weeks plus the ship. everyone can see on paper he looks like a beast but he still has to do it.

the rest look extremely wide open with most having fields of fourteen. good luck

atlasshrugged · Answer

race 6P45 11311 12 149 12$10 costs $120.

Rob2772 · Answer

Atlas, good luck Bud.

bn05 · Answer

Good luck Atlass

Tygermyke · Answer

Good luck, Atlas.  Love the bomb.

Kurshka · Answer

Whats up bro. Good racing to all you guys.

atlasshrugged · Answer

thanks guys.  good luck to all.might want to keep an eye on the main track.  horse i played in first didn&#x27;t make up much late ground at all.  second race nobody closed.  3rd race i threw a few WPS on the horse i capped yesterday to see if it would hold (the 8) and sure enough that stiff held on.  i initially opted off 8 thinking the route/sprint types would inhale him late but felt he would in fact have every chance to set the pace.  "speed bias"?  maybe.  could be worth considering.  see if horses with much better ability can&#x27;t make up ground and that adds more ammo to that argument in my view.  sorry for not mentioning the 8 i won&#x27;t make up an excuse.  half unit fooling around a little.

atlasshrugged · Answer

5th at 5/1.44 and change half couldn&#x27;t close ground on them.

atlasshrugged · Answer

race 4spot play.  was 10 or 12 capping this of course several can win taking a shot.12 WPS25/1 on the board.  recency, late speed, distance.  first time on the green. 0.50 units.

atlasshrugged · Answer

making a nice move right there turning for home . . . . . . then he basically pulled up.

atlasshrugged · Answer

keeneland4/1 got hit hard early.  i suspect the track tendency and his pace ability brought that cash in.those were decent G2 horses and a closer did make up some ground.  i&#x27;m not calling it a bias but i&#x27;m not leaning towards horses making moves from the clouds either.

Keeneland - 10/30 + 10/31

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