MY Derby write-up

I hate this literarey crap so short and sweet.

#1- LAL looks too slow and no value

#2- Ice Box looks like a contender but no winner so use underneath in exotics

#3- Nobles Promise another slow mover plus outta da money in last

#4- Super Saver lost to 4 of these before and what has changed

#5- Line of David was all-out to win last Bejarano or not

#6- Stately Victor is way too slow

#7- American Lion has no GR.1 finishes

#8- Deans Kitten is another with Gr. 1 finishes

#9- MMfM loses to everybody

#10- Paddy O Prado another who doesn't belong, too slow

#11- Devil May Care is interesting as she was a late entrant and could well prove best here

#12- Conveyance is slow and no Gr.1 finishes so out classed

#13- Jackson Bend looks like the winner this year as Esky won't be playing this time and never worse than 2nd

#14- Mission Impazible doesn't belong

#15- Discreetly Mine ( see above)

#16- Awesome Act never 1st or 2nd in a Gr. 1

#17, 18 and 19 are too slow and out classed

#20 Sidneys Candy at peak form and should run a good one here

#13 Jackson Bend to win

#2 Ice Box, #11 Devil May care and #20 Sidney's Candy should fill out the exotics.

GL

Paddy O'Prado is a good example of the kind of horse that doesn't fit here.  One lifetime win, hasn't run on dirt in almost a year, slow, etc.  People are drooling over this horse why?  Because he had a bullet work in the slop?  That's a horse that should be 50-1 when the gates open, but he's at 12-1 right now. 

Kinda simple IMO, jackson has only lost to Esky and he ain't here. 9 for 9 in the exacta so that tells me he is pretty game. Most of the others have lost to each other.

First race off a 3 month layoff and a new trainer perhaps or maybe Homer blew up that day. This horse is dead game and runs his heart out everytime. Worked a bullet on the 22nd too.

ok we'll see appreciate feedback

in the esky races he just looks like he runs evenly to me but that's why they open the gates for real so we can find out

I just went through everything and here are the 14 horses I'm tossing so far:

#2- Ice Box

#3- Nobles Promise

#4- Super Saver

#5- Line of David

#6- Stately Victor

#8- Deans Kitten

#9- MMfM

#10- Paddy O Prado

#11- Devil May Care

#14- Mission Impazible

#16- Awesome Act

#17, 18 and 19

I just dont get how people can toss out so many horses...look at Mine that bird last year....

i agree some horses you could say ehh probably not, but...

Me too

315

#5 to show

i like #16 Awesome Act, third start on the dirt/mud has been improving every ever race, stumbled at the break in the wood and still recovered to finish 3rd even if it was a bunch behind esky he was right there with Jackson Bend to battle for the pieces....looking for him to stalk and close on a very muddy track.

Also the weathermen here in louisville are almost to the point of telling us to start building an ark. with the amount of rain that is going to hit us.

good luck to all.