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TRIPLE CROWN-Where we at now & The Belmont

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Posted: #26
My somewhat of a concern with Meantime is the distance, he being out of Shackelford.
 
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Posted: #27
I agree that Looking at Lee is not the plodder in the same range as my other great Belmont pick Steppenwolfer who had more thirds than a Libertarian candidate.  But I'm not sold on LAL as a win candidate yet.  Perhaps a vision on half-price Margarita Wednesday will help.
 
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Posted: #28

HEY VET.....hope all is well

 
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Posted: #29

TYGRE....THOUGHT you might be all over Lee. hope you are doing well.

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by mikeyp1:

I think I have this stat correct.....Lee is 11/2-3-2 with $943,000 in purse money....not exactly "minor award" status. His CD is .3.40 and DI is .77....not "plodder" numbers.

He has a great shot to win the Belmont. As much as like Lanerie, after thinking about it, the switch to Irad at Elmont makes big sense.

OK Mikey, maybe plodder was not the right term?  But only 2 wins in 11 races with 5 "minor awards"  is not a win machine!  Zero wins in 2017?  Not sure on that.   I'll be tossing Meantime and Patch on the win end too, settling for 2nd-3rd is not my cup of tea.

But WTH does a newcomer know?  I digress to the experts.

Thanks   Jr




 
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Posted: #31
still  ten or 11  days to go  for the 1/1/2  belmont stakes...  think i saw irap  said  no,  but list is still  14 or so...  irish war cry  a definite ?  mike   i thought  lanerie  rode  lookin at lee  great  2x, but  then  the light bulb  came on...  creator  won the the belmont  with  irad ortiz  last year..not taking sides   but  lookin at lee  got more  grade 1s on his  chart and,although he hasnt fared well  against  classic  empire, i would certainly  trust him  off this 3 week  freshening  before alot of these  3yr olds..  he was  again running  late in the preakness.   was glad to see  true timber entered off his  front running 3rd in sir barton,   we need some pace.....  .  
 
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Posted: #32
   watching some triple crown replays  ...  old ones..  1989  preakness and belmont stakes..  the good old days..  if that aint enough. watch. the 1989  breeders cup classic...  sunday  silence  vs  easy goer ..  wow... 
 
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Posted: #33
Everyone is aware that Lookin at Lee has ZERO wins at 2 turns and is 0 for his last 9.

Playing him in the Derby is one thing at 33-1 but playing him in the Belmont at odds that are likely to be 6-1 or under is really a bad wager, whether he wins or not.
 
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Posted: #34
If AD handlers knew better,,,No way going in Belmont..but maybe a shorter sprint "prep" perhaps earlier in the Card...

BELMONT STAKES DAY only 8 days away...

BElmont VERY very wide open...gotta like those fresher horses who RUN longer.....CREATOR and Irad last year.13-1 .
 
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Posted: #35
I really like tapwrit in this race I believe I will be betting him to win...have to look at the rest, certainly having lee in my top 4. ...I hit the super last year but I bet at sportsbook.com and they have some cap like 4200 or something you can win on a race. It sucked
 
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Posted: #36
With the defection of Conquest Mo Money and the scratch of True Timber(fever) Meantime is now the controlling speed of this race. We know CE can't really press him and keep him honest because he won't last, to that point neither can Irish War Cry if they decide he runs. Mike Smith maybe able to walk thru opening fractions, this race produces strange results and i think Meantime is sitting on a monster race here especially with how the pace projects at this point.
 
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Posted: #37
https://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes17.pdf
 
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Posted: #38
I feel a little "nuts" for going here....but....how's this logic? The Japanese ship and run well all over the world.......except the US thus far. At some point in time, they will win one of these races. This is a better horse than Lani.......has probably more tactical speed than any foreign horse that's tried this. Mile and a half races are the goal in Japan, so this colt appears to have been pointed to this race for some time. I can see this one laying close......really close to the lead and the breeding will take over at the eighth pole. This is the time to try it, cause I see this crop of 3 yo's as ordinary. I'll be using him with Tapwrit and Irish War Cry. Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #39
Epicharis has only run in Japan and Dubai, the horse that beat him in the UAE Derby went to Louisville and danced out of the gate, went back to Europe and didn't win his next race either. 3rd place finisher in the UAE was Master Plan, his next NA start was the Peter Pan and he got trounced. So IMO to think Epicharis can get to Belmont a week out and be ready to fire big enough to win under a jockey who knows nothing of the track and will likely only have 1 mount that day is an awful big ask. But you're not the only person I've seen with this opinion so GL to you on you're wagers.

I personally like Meantime and Tapwrit, will likely also use Gormley and IWC in my P4s. IWC is a total puzzle instead of trying to figure I'll likely just use him
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by angrybarber:

Epicharis has only run in Japan and Dubai, the horse that beat him in the UAE Derby went to Louisville and danced out of the gate, went back to Europe and didn't win his next race either. 3rd place finisher in the UAE was Master Plan, his next NA start was the Peter Pan and he got trounced. So IMO to think Epicharis can get to Belmont a week out and be ready to fire big enough to win under a jockey who knows nothing of the track and will likely only have 1 mount that day is an awful big ask. But you're not the only person I've seen with this opinion so GL to you on you're wagers.

I personally like Meantime and Tapwrit, will likely also use Gormley and IWC in my P4s. IWC is a total puzzle instead of trying to figure I'll likely just use him


I know that these horses are historically bad wagers......I wish they had gotten a Belmont jock to ride him for certain. I've got friends in London who said Thunder Snow was bet by several quality punters before his Derby debacle......their reasoning that this was a subpar crop of American 3 y.o.'s......you mentioned that he came back to lose his next race.....it was a good 2nd behind Churchill (one of the best 3 yo's in Europe) in the Guineas......and it was at least 5 lengths back to the 3rd horse. That all being said, the price has got to be right. Will wait to see how he takes to the surface. Great card at Belmont on Saturday. Best of luck.
 
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Posted: #41
Right now I'm putting tapwrit and twisted Tom in my super. Not sure on other 2 yet.
 
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Posted: #42
Twisted Tom is interesting and has a lot of Belmont winners or their foals in his pedigree. Big time connections though wonder what his post time odds will be. GL
 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by angrybarber:

Everyone is aware that Lookin at Lee has ZERO wins at 2 turns and is 0 for his last 9.

Playing him in the Derby is one thing at 33-1 but playing him in the Belmont at odds that are likely to be 6-1 or under is really a bad wager, whether he wins or not.

Been thinking about the 0 for 9 stat you sited. However, the guy is improving and might not have yet run his race. With IOrtiz on him, I like the angle in my capping. I think these are points to consider.

While I haven't come close to capping this race...today,  Monday, way too early, I gotta think.....

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by soonboomer:

I feel a little "nuts" for going here....but....how's this logic? The Japanese ship and run well all over the world.......except the US thus far. At some point in time, they will win one of these races. This is a better horse than Lani.......has probably more tactical speed than any foreign horse that's tried this. Mile and a half races are the goal in Japan, so this colt appears to have been pointed to this race for some time. I can see this one laying close......really close to the lead and the breeding will take over at the eighth pole. This is the time to try it, cause I see this crop of 3 yo's as ordinary. I'll be using him with Tapwrit and Irish War Cry. Thoughts?


FOLLOW THIS HALF-A$$ logic....the case for Epicharis.....

  • He's won four of five races lifetime against top Global competitors
  • His only loss was to THUNDER SNOW, he of KY Derby freak out, who, I still believe, if TS had his head right that day, would have competed.
  • Thunder Snow ran last weekend in the 2000 Guineas...one of the top 3-year old races in Europe. He had the lead heading for home until CHURCHILL passed Thunder Snow to win by 2L.
  • CHURCHILL is the Number One ranked European and Japanese 3-year old. You will see him in the BC in 2017.
  • Partly because he will be racing in long distance European affairs for the rest of his career, in all likelihood, Epicharis is the only one of all the entrants that has trained for the Belmont distance.
  • This from Brian Zipse, Editor of horseracingnation.com; "Zipse at the Track." "The Belmont was always the Goal - While Epicharis is clearly the best three-year-old dirt horse in Japan, and was his nation's automatic qualifier for the Kentucky Derby, it was not the Run for the Roses that his connections had their collective eyes on. Rather the Belmont was always the goal. Even when they went to Dubai to run in the $2 million UAE Derby, they let it be known that it was the final leg of our Triple Crown that would be next for him. Let me ask you this -- How many American horses are pointed for the Belmont? No, for U.S. horses it is all about the Derby, with the Belmont left for Triple Crown survivors and late developers. The fact that the Belmont was always targeted for by Epicharis is an advantage that should not be overlooked."


 
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Posted: #45

More Epicharis.......

  • His sire is Gold Allure,son of Sunday Silence, who won the 1989 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and ran second in the Belmont Stakes to Easy Goer.
  • THE KNOCK.........A 77-day break. No horse in the past over 30 years has won the Belmont off such a long break.Freak Rags to Riches’  was on a 36-day break before her Belmont win. However, consider that Cloud Computing was just the 4th horse in the past 34 Preakness races to win that race,.
 
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Posted: #46

AB...."So IMO to think Epicharis can get to Belmont a week out and be ready to fire big enough to win under a jockey who knows nothing of the track and will likely only have 1 mount that day is an awful big ask. "


Before you dismiss jockey Christophe Lemaiire....

  • He won the BC JUVE Turf on Flotilla  in 2012 at Santa Anita...a tack on which he never competed prior to the race.
  • He won the Secretariat, one of the top 3-year old races, in 2012 on Bayir at Arlington Park.
  • He has won major stakes races in his home country of France, in Australia, Hong Kong, Dubai, UAE, and Great Britain. I don't think Belmont will scare him.
  • wins include the Melbourne Cup, Grand Prix de Paris, 2000 Guineas, Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Hong Kong Cup, Japan Cup, Japan Cup Dirt, Dubai Sheema in addition to his 2 US wins.
  • Lemaire is a world class jock probably as good as anyone on in the US top 5 to 15 jocks
 
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Posted: #47
But he be slow man. The distance I have no sorry. The speed I do. Lookin at lee team I still believe completely screwed him racing him Preakness for 0 reason
 
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Posted: #48
Worry stupid phone
 
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Posted: #49
On race day I try to talk myself out of my picks. I feel like you are talking yourself into epi. I'm gonna pass.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Angry stay on this thread or start one...2 quick questions...
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