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JULY STOCK TALK V

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Posts: 114

KOAJ

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 66698

Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 10:00 PM ET #76

Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Good stuff, Koaj. Reggie's smart, allright. I remember last year about this time when I first started posting in this room. I was all gung-ho looking for some financial shorts right before September. You were rightly bearish as well. I hope you were able to seriously capitalize on that assertion. Like the true dumb-f--k that I am, I chickened out and was way, way too conservative because I was terrified of bailout packages that were going to come (I got obliterated back in later 90s during Asian Tiger bailouts and it still gives me the shakes thinking about it).

This gdmf-ing country deserves to go right down the drain with its horrendous policies put down by its lying leaders. I am angry as hell about the future, but more sad than angry when you really get down to it.

I am all about capitalism and "free markets" where people live, die, thrive, crash, fail, survive, burn, etc.........

WITH NO GD BAILOUTS

i was laughed at by many for being so damn bearish...my opinion hasnt changed. to cleanse this mkt we need fire and brimstone. bailouts will only but a bandaid on a gunshot wound IMO

i have benefited from the crash by being 50% + cash and being long commodities (15% approx). i dont have the stomach for shorting something i cant get out of immediately

not sure if i told the story but last october i went to nyc to meet with a client (hedge fund...multi b AUM). i sat on their trading desk for about an hour and my client was shorting C by the 10's of thousands of shares in the mid 40s. we talked about the mkt in general and my company's product and finding ideas. i sent him a note at the beginning of june about a very large corp insider sale at AXP and a link to a blog, may have been reggie's. well they were short and added much more in the mid 40s

i would guess they are renewing soon enough

Vermeer

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Jul. 28, 2008 - 6:51 AM ET #77

Quote Originally Posted by Gridophiles:

Just reading through some of the details of this housing bailout package, and OMG !!!! We have turned this country to a form of feudalism, were us peasants/serfs are now working for the wealthy land owners of California, Nevada, Florida and etc........

F me.

" Privatized profits and socialized losses" is the most fitting descriptor I have heard lately...

grapevinekid

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2002

Posts: 6524

Posted: Jul. 28, 2008 - 11:38 AM ET #78

Wallstreet: Any reason not to buy DRYS at it's current level? I read where at least one analyst feels demand will be strong keeping shipping rates high for the rest of yr. Looks like an easy ride back up to 90 or higher in the not too distant future.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58402

Posted: Jul. 28, 2008 - 11:55 AM ET #79

GVK,

You got me.

They are valuing it at 4 times 2008 and about 5 times 2009 numbers and not including the aprox 5 BILLION in OR assets/drill rigs.

DRYS spent hard cash to get most of the shares of OR, valued at 2B or so and have paid deposits on the two drillships on order, add that when DRYS purchased the OR stock, oil was at 70 or so and due to exchange rules where the stock was listed, when someone wants to buy a company they pay a weighted average of the shares for the previous 14 days I think..so the company did not need to pay any premium.

Also, of the OR assets, just this month, one of the drill rigs reset contract prices, locked in for THREE years, went from Exxon who had it for 425k per day or so, and now Tullow has it at 637k per day, over 200k per day increase with a 3 year lock and two one year options on top of that.

The second rig comes up for new contract next year, right now at 500k per day or so.

The market is 100% wrong on the stock, but I cannot force the market to realize these things and when it does the stock will move like crazy.

To not realize assets and cash flow on OR, not giving a single cent of valuation, even for the cash spent towards the investment AND valuing the parent business (DRYS) at such a low multiple is lunacy.

I am not going anywhere until they put a 1 in back of the 73, the stock is worth 180, and even that wouldnt value EBITDA at 8 times earnings, or cash flow at 10 times.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58402

Posted: Jul. 28, 2008 - 12:29 PM ET #80

Looks like CRDC reports today..

Vermeer

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Jul. 28, 2008 - 1:58 PM ET #81

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

GVK,

You got me.

They are valuing it at 4 times 2008 and about 5 times 2009 numbers and not including the aprox 5 BILLION in OR assets/drill rigs.

DRYS spent hard cash to get most of the shares of OR, valued at 2B or so and have paid deposits on the two drillships on order, add that when DRYS purchased the OR stock, oil was at 70 or so and due to exchange rules where the stock was listed, when someone wants to buy a company they pay a weighted average of the shares for the previous 14 days I think..so the company did not need to pay any premium.

Also, of the OR assets, just this month, one of the drill rigs reset contract prices, locked in for THREE years, went from Exxon who had it for 425k per day or so, and now Tullow has it at 637k per day, over 200k per day increase with a 3 year lock and two one year options on top of that.

The second rig comes up for new contract next year, right now at 500k per day or so.

The market is 100% wrong on the stock, but I cannot force the market to realize these things and when it does the stock will move like crazy.

To not realize assets and cash flow on OR, not giving a single cent of valuation, even for the cash spent towards the investment AND valuing the parent business (DRYS) at such a low multiple is lunacy.

I am not going anywhere until they put a 1 in back of the 73, the stock is worth 180, and even that wouldnt value EBITDA at 8 times earnings, or cash flow at 10 times.

Amen bro...I have no plans at all of selling any of it and am adding more on dips.

grapevinekid

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2002

Posts: 6524

Posted: Jul. 28, 2008 - 2:12 PM ET #82

Thanks wallstreet and vermeer. I bought DRYS at 73.05 this a.m. I've traded in and out of DRYS a couple times previously and it really looks like a steal at this level.

claycourtlesson

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Jul. 28, 2008 - 5:51 PM ET #83

The USA economy

The USA stock markets

claycourtlesson

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Jul. 29, 2008 - 6:12 AM ET #84

There'll be short covering in MER today.

Gunners

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 3392

Posted: Jul. 29, 2008 - 8:12 AM ET #85

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Looks like CRDC reports today..

Etrade said that as well. report never came through, and now etrade says "Next Earnings Date 10/30/08. I'm not sure what the deal is.

claycourtlesson

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Jul. 29, 2008 - 6:55 PM ET #86

Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

There'll be short covering in MER today.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58402

Posted: Jul. 29, 2008 - 7:11 PM ET #87

To put it lightly on MER, that sucker bounced strong with the market.

jaxwhitey

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2006

Posts: 1752

Posted: Jul. 29, 2008 - 8:48 PM ET #88

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Looks like CRDC reports today..

Yahoo finance has the report set for next Tuesday, Aug 5th after market close.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58402

Posted: Jul. 29, 2008 - 9:16 PM ET #89

Yeah I saw that today as well, the date yesterday was a mistake.

Speaking of CRDC, it is looking weak, no volume or follow through and several bad spikes down on weak trading action today.

Part of me knows it is a longer term investment and maybe it would be wise to take some short term profits and leg back in on a dip.

Gunners

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 3392

Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 12:02 PM ET #90

August 5th report date. i'm not worried about CRDC. we'll be fine. I'm glad i scalped that trade last week though, really makes my basis lower, given i made a quick point on it the other day.

claycourtlesson

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 12:17 PM ET #91

CRDC is damn good potential. And to me, if you want it, you got to be in it now.

Impossible to "wait and see what happens" on this one. When it moves, it moves at light speed.

Used to be one of my holdings last year, but I went all cash in Januaray except for short term "trades."

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58402

Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 12:44 PM ET #92

Market sliding, oil rising..

claycourtlesson

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 1:05 PM ET #93

WSC-

The manipulation by Washington, DC is sickening.

"They" won't stop until oil is 100ish, and financials are much higher than now.

Am worried about my Citibank short now. I can't possibly try to go head to head with the lying hedge fund crooks, let alone Washington, DC.

Man is this world f--ed.

claycourtlesson

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 1:06 PM ET #94

Impeach Paulson. Impeach Bernanke. Impeach Dickie.

All guilty.

All doomed.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58402

Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 1:28 PM ET #95

Where are you short on C? around 15?

jaxwhitey

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2006

Posts: 1752

Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 3:38 PM ET #96

CHK calls are a license to print money today

claycourtlesson

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 3:41 PM ET #97

Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Where are you short on C? around 15?

1000 x 19.20

Was "hoping" to cover 10-12ish, but am now getting cold feet as I realize I am fighting head to head with Paulson/Bernanke/Dickie/Bailouts/etc......

claycourtlesson

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 3:47 PM ET #98

In a real "free market," there're no bailout packages for stupidity.

You just take your lumps like you do in the real world. But Wall Street isn't the real world. It is fantasy playground for little rich boys and girls who'll ALWAYS get bailed out by mommy and daddy when they get too naughty (greedy and stupid).

CFC, C, FNM, FRE, BSC, etc..........The "Asian Tigers", IDIOTS who bought McMansions for 7 times too much...........you die.

But the deal is this............Wall Street is crap. Always has been, always will be. My job to accept it and adjust. Oh yeah, I have accepted it, but when I get blown off course, I get pissed off.

My Citibank short "should" easily print money, but it won't be allowed to, and now I got to think of something else.

claycourtlesson

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 3:53 PM ET #99

Hey,

I lost money last year betting football at 5 Dimes. Should I call them up and ask for a "bailout package" of free credit for this year's upcoming season?

That's the same gdmf-ing thing that is happening to the financials. Rather than let them fail and crash (as should be), that stupid farking icehole Bernanke is printing money hand over fist while the lies just fall from Paulson's face. Meanwhile, my gd social security that I have paid in to since I started working is going up in smoke so Wall Street peeps can be bailed out while I am handed the check at the end of the night.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58402

Posted: Jul. 30, 2008 - 3:59 PM ET #100

CC,

I tried that..you have to be signed up for their rebate program before you get the benefit. They have a 15% of losses program but if you dont sign up for it you dont get it.

Good job on the C short, at least you arent underwater yet.

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