I mean seriously... what a joke. Anyone day trading must be just pushing buttons at this moment and hoping.
I mean seriously... what a joke. Anyone day trading must be just pushing buttons at this moment and hoping.
If the P/E falls to 10--as is possible in a severe recession--the S&P could be down to 600, or 35% below current levels.
And in a very severe recession, one cannot exclude that EPS could fall as low as $50 in 2009, dragging the S&P 500 index to as low as 500. So, even based on fundamentals and valuations, there are significant downside risks to U.S. equities (20% to 40%).
If the P/E falls to 10--as is possible in a severe recession--the S&P could be down to 600, or 35% below current levels.
And in a very severe recession, one cannot exclude that EPS could fall as low as $50 in 2009, dragging the S&P 500 index to as low as 500. So, even based on fundamentals and valuations, there are significant downside risks to U.S. equities (20% to 40%).
Beware, therefore, of those who tell you that we have reached a
bottom for risky financial assets. The same optimists told you that we
reached a bottom and the worst was behind us after the rescue of the
creditors of Bear Stearns in March; after the announcement of the
possible bailout of Fannie and Freddie in July; after the actual
bailout of Fannie and Freddie in September; after the bailout of AIG
In each case, the optimists argued that the latest crisis and rescue policy response was the cathartic event that signaled the bottom of the crisis and the recovery of markets. They were wrong literally at least six times in a row as the crisis--as I have consistently predicted over the last year--became worse and worse. So enough of the excessive optimism that has been proved wrong at least six times in the last eight months alone.
Beware, therefore, of those who tell you that we have reached a
bottom for risky financial assets. The same optimists told you that we
reached a bottom and the worst was behind us after the rescue of the
creditors of Bear Stearns in March; after the announcement of the
possible bailout of Fannie and Freddie in July; after the actual
bailout of Fannie and Freddie in September; after the bailout of AIG
In each case, the optimists argued that the latest crisis and rescue policy response was the cathartic event that signaled the bottom of the crisis and the recovery of markets. They were wrong literally at least six times in a row as the crisis--as I have consistently predicted over the last year--became worse and worse. So enough of the excessive optimism that has been proved wrong at least six times in the last eight months alone.
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