Posted:
#26
15 pts away from dj lows 
November Stock Talk II Greed is Good
Posted:
#35
From Roubini today:
For 2009, the consensus estimates for earnings are delusional: Current consensus estimates are that S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) will be $90 in 2009, up 15% from 2008. Such estimates are outright silly. If EPS falls--as is most likely--to a level of $60, then with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12, the S&P 500 index could fall to 720 (i.e. about 20% below current levels).
If the P/E falls to 10--as is possible in a severe recession--the S&P could be down to 600, or 35% below current levels.
And in a very severe recession, one cannot exclude that EPS could fall as low as $50 in 2009, dragging the S&P 500 index to as low as 500. So, even based on fundamentals and valuations, there are significant downside risks to U.S. equities (20% to 40%).
Posted:
#44
Well, as to the above, I suppose some people can believe him.But I think Roubini is right in the same article :
Beware, therefore, of those who tell you that we have reached a
bottom for risky financial assets. The same optimists told you that we
reached a bottom and the worst was behind us after the rescue of the
creditors of Bear Stearns in March; after the announcement of the
possible bailout of Fannie and Freddie in July; after the actual
bailout of Fannie and Freddie in September; after the bailout of AIG
In each case, the optimists argued that the latest crisis and rescue policy response was the cathartic event that signaled the bottom of the crisis and the recovery of markets. They were wrong literally at least six times in a row as the crisis--as I have consistently predicted over the last year--became worse and worse. So enough of the excessive optimism that has been proved wrong at least six times in the last eight months alone.
Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
I think I found why the move came in.
Paulson made the following comments late in the day-
FED has stabilized the banking system
FED says new TARP plan will help banks keep lending
FED says buying illiquid assets not off the table.
THAT sent the market screaming higher IMO
I think I found why the move came in.
Paulson made the following comments late in the day-
FED has stabilized the banking system
FED says new TARP plan will help banks keep lending
FED says buying illiquid assets not off the table.
THAT sent the market screaming higher IMO
I believe now more than ever they are bailing out the auto's. 3-5 million jobs need confidence to spend money at christmas. that paulson is a slick cat. 1-2 punch, get money out to borrow and secure people will have jobs = X-MAS propped up. market can run off of those numbers. X-mas is the biggest indicator of consumer spending. if they dont do there both X-mas numbers will Look awful. It buys them time to figure out what will really fix our economy or better yet let hank leave treasury on a high note.
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