October Stock Talk II

i was watching a guy english bloak talking about going all the way down to 0 % rate to correct this problem so maybe firing 4 bullets now wouldnt hurt. the last 4 bullets could also be used and then if that doesnt work we all go to hell together

lol the fed would be like a credit card company giving an intro rate of 0% to banks. imagine all the flyer miles they would earn

Vermeer,

I say we will be in trouble for half as long as it took to create it.

I think it took 6-8 years to wind up and 3-4 to unwind, with us being in year one right now.

The FED cutting interest rates wont help unfreeze the credit markets IMO.

What will it take to get a higher volume sell off?

1 billion shares of volume is pathetic.  At what point is there panic, 9000?

Wow..

450 down means lower lows from yesterday.

  Wall, I hope it is as you say. The sums of money that are being thrown (haplessly) by Bernanke and company, and the sums being tossed around in conversation and in action world wide (with increasing fervor and alarm) makes me ever more bearish.If they ever had control, they have lost it now.

  DRYS down another 20% or so in what seems like a daily mauling...sheesh...

 

 

 

PS

  A historical chart of the Dow is instructive.From 1929 it took about 30 years to regain 380 or so...from a low of 42.

 The period 1967-1984 is no winner as well.

  This bubble bursting will make the dot com bubble look like child's play

good blog...this guy might be smarter than the rest of them

very macro-focused

now the mkt wants a rate cut so they tanked it this afternoon...at this rate dow 8000 is coming next week

Yup, still haven't hit capitulation yet.  It will happen sometime - no idea.. My guess is we go below the lows after 9/11 - watch out.  that to me is the line in the sand.

Also, for the comments on the market. Can't remember where I saw it but I think the philosophy on the 16 year bear/bull cycle is instructive i.e. the markets goes in 16 year stretches of bear then back to bull.  If the last bull market was from the mid-80's until march of 2001 then the bear market is in year 7 or so - the market really hasn't done anything but move sideways over the last 7 years even though it hit 14K.  Then there is about 7-8 more years of essentially sideways trading. Could be off but seems pretty interesting to think about.'

For me who has 30+ years to retirement.  It sucks to see investments go down but they'll go back up.

For me who has 30+ years to retirement.  It sucks to see investments go down but they'll go back up.
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dollar cost average for 35 years and you will be fine sir...thats my plan as well

I broke down and started a small stock position in UYG at $13, added @ $12, and will continue to do so at every dollar increment down.

I think my options in UYG are shot, but I will attempt to ride it long term.  If the banks don't make it, that money would be worthless anyways.

I expect more shyt earnings from the banks like we saw yesterday from BAC, but longer term the Fed has stacked the deck so heavily in the banks favor.  And the Fed will continue to further stack the deck in their favor to avert a complete meltdown, it's almost unfathomable that they won't produce better numbers in the coming quarters.

ccl - correction

the only buyers are shorts covering

add that to no uptick rule and you have an uncatchable knife

DRYS Dilution 

Yep, it wouldnt have mattered, the group got smashed again today.

Read the fine print, George wont be selling those shares, company got 9 Capes for 16M cash and assumed debt.

I was looking for your take on the deal.  Why do it at such a low share price?  I guess that is good George won't sell . . . is this George getting some really low priced shares since he knows eventually go back up?

just confused at timing.

VH2,

Yep I cannot understand the timing either.

My gut says it was after the quarter was finished more than anything.

I dont mind the terms..think about it this way, if you buy on credit the terms should be different than using cash. Even with the terms of whatever per cape, less than 4 months ago Capes were being swapped for higher than these numbers and when/if things turn it will end up being a decent deal.

What I think happened is Cardiff had a balance sheet need, maybe an investment they are making or just trying to lighten the debt load and moving some assets off the balance sheet might have been the reason.

Either way, I cannot find a better use given the terms..people were yapping on yahoo about buying Diana or EXM, I did my analysis and given the TERMS especially I cannot see a better use.

When the OR debt is moved off the balance sheet by the end of the year, the book value will go up nicely and this in earnings is similar, meaning getting 9 capes..so George replaced the RIG assets with ships and also kept all the cash in the bank liquid, which could come in handy later on.

agreed on the next trade CCL...we will have a 10-15% bounce at some point in all indeces

at some point you probably want to be long the names that will survive this mess and do well during it...MCD, TGT, WMT