Rates rising are good for bank profits....I don't think I need to explain to you how most banks make their money.
"If the fed raises the discount rate " - this can be debated. Given the rise of the dollar, I don't think we see a rate increase in June. Let alone 2015.
Good luck with your trades...
I think you do...
I would like to hear how you think banks are making their money NOW...not from some textbook explanation.
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Quote Originally Posted by Caper03:
Rates rising are good for bank profits....I don't think I need to explain to you how most banks make their money.
"If the fed raises the discount rate " - this can be debated. Given the rise of the dollar, I don't think we see a rate increase in June. Let alone 2015.
Good luck with your trades...
I think you do...
I would like to hear how you think banks are making their money NOW...not from some textbook explanation.
I can tell you know how to trade.. Can you look at NUGT and tell me what you think. Thanks
Been on vacation so just saw this post. I would like to help, but honestly, I do not know much at all about equities. About all I could do is throw out some fibby levels, and possibly tell you if I have a buy or a sell signal developing on different time period charts.....honestly, I couldn't venture an educated guess on how to trade the signals on a stock.
If you like it, go get it...if not pass.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Quote Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:
I can tell you know how to trade.. Can you look at NUGT and tell me what you think. Thanks
Been on vacation so just saw this post. I would like to help, but honestly, I do not know much at all about equities. About all I could do is throw out some fibby levels, and possibly tell you if I have a buy or a sell signal developing on different time period charts.....honestly, I couldn't venture an educated guess on how to trade the signals on a stock.
As of right now we are trading the April CL contract at 44.20 pre open.....all the pressure is down...traded under Friday's and last weeks low of 44.75 yesterday afternoon on the electronic open. Low today of 43.57.
Crude broke from a compression type pattern in which 50.00 was the key # in trading last week...and broke down hard. 40.00 looks to be tested in the near future, and who knows what happens from there?
My long term prognostications of calling a bottom in the 44.00 to 40.00 range look to be facing the second test of the year. All in all, I am still holding 2 2016 calls; as of now these are out of the money; and honestly I am not in a big hurry to add to the long position........this last selloff under 50.00 has been a bit of a surprise. However, if 40.00 looks resilient in the next few sessions, I will be looking to pull the trigger on some Sept. Calls, and look for a bump similar to what we experienced at the end of January. Very happy to have taken profits on that trade.
Same old same old...in wait and see mode.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Ok fellas....
As of right now we are trading the April CL contract at 44.20 pre open.....all the pressure is down...traded under Friday's and last weeks low of 44.75 yesterday afternoon on the electronic open. Low today of 43.57.
Crude broke from a compression type pattern in which 50.00 was the key # in trading last week...and broke down hard. 40.00 looks to be tested in the near future, and who knows what happens from there?
My long term prognostications of calling a bottom in the 44.00 to 40.00 range look to be facing the second test of the year. All in all, I am still holding 2 2016 calls; as of now these are out of the money; and honestly I am not in a big hurry to add to the long position........this last selloff under 50.00 has been a bit of a surprise. However, if 40.00 looks resilient in the next few sessions, I will be looking to pull the trigger on some Sept. Calls, and look for a bump similar to what we experienced at the end of January. Very happy to have taken profits on that trade.
Taking a hard look at Sept 2015 calls w/ strike at 50.00. Pricing right now is 7.24 p/brl. (1000 barrels a kick). May be willing to pull the trigger on similar trade today if we sell off hard this afternoon.
Heavy pricing on a strike of 35.00, things get pretty cheap up in the 60's and 70's.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
0
Taking a hard look at Sept 2015 calls w/ strike at 50.00. Pricing right now is 7.24 p/brl. (1000 barrels a kick). May be willing to pull the trigger on similar trade today if we sell off hard this afternoon.
Heavy pricing on a strike of 35.00, things get pretty cheap up in the 60's and 70's.
Couldn't hold pressure under 43 even for very long. the late day selloff may still occur, but the pricing is ripe on the September calls.
1) 2 September 2015 Calls at 7.30 p/b w/ strike of 50.00
Again, this not a cheap trade. My original call of 75$ in short order has proven to be wrong, but I am still anticipating a rally towards 75$ late spring and summer to come to fruition.
IF we trade under 40$ for a substantial amount of time, and things look to be consolidating this time next month, then I will certainly be looking for the door in Late May or early June. In my opinion the opportunity here for a nice short term profit is very high.....and the opportunity to hit a nice double going into to July is also very high.
50 even is a large psyche level; as of right now the September contract is trading at 50.91.
Like always, just have to wait and see.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
0
Couldn't hold pressure under 43 even for very long. the late day selloff may still occur, but the pricing is ripe on the September calls.
1) 2 September 2015 Calls at 7.30 p/b w/ strike of 50.00
Again, this not a cheap trade. My original call of 75$ in short order has proven to be wrong, but I am still anticipating a rally towards 75$ late spring and summer to come to fruition.
IF we trade under 40$ for a substantial amount of time, and things look to be consolidating this time next month, then I will certainly be looking for the door in Late May or early June. In my opinion the opportunity here for a nice short term profit is very high.....and the opportunity to hit a nice double going into to July is also very high.
50 even is a large psyche level; as of right now the September contract is trading at 50.91.
Down again today....consolidating around 43 bucks now, traded under yesterday's low at 4285.
30m chart looks to be prepping for a selloff towards my lower bound daily targets of 4226 and 4188.
Key #'s to the bottom are 4250 and 42 flat. Will be taking a daily long at 4226 with my back against 4200......until we get there will scalp 4249. Nothing fancy on the trade management...in and out looking for 5's and 8's; look for a 1:1 on the range # of 4226 buy.
All in all, 40.00 looks to be tested......we will see what price action does in the near term, but we have seen some buying under yesterday's low, so this isn't a break away trend day like early yesterday.......just have to wait and see.
Emphasis on today's close...volume is a bit lighter, but rollover is coming on in the next few days to the May contract.... looking at a 1.5/1 split right now between April/May. May currently trading at 44.99.
Would not be surprised to see some buying on April to bring the outright spread of april/may in.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Down again today....consolidating around 43 bucks now, traded under yesterday's low at 4285.
30m chart looks to be prepping for a selloff towards my lower bound daily targets of 4226 and 4188.
Key #'s to the bottom are 4250 and 42 flat. Will be taking a daily long at 4226 with my back against 4200......until we get there will scalp 4249. Nothing fancy on the trade management...in and out looking for 5's and 8's; look for a 1:1 on the range # of 4226 buy.
All in all, 40.00 looks to be tested......we will see what price action does in the near term, but we have seen some buying under yesterday's low, so this isn't a break away trend day like early yesterday.......just have to wait and see.
Emphasis on today's close...volume is a bit lighter, but rollover is coming on in the next few days to the May contract.... looking at a 1.5/1 split right now between April/May. May currently trading at 44.99.
Would not be surprised to see some buying on April to bring the outright spread of april/may in.
Saudi has a history of blowing up infrastructure, sinking oil tankers, delaying shipments when the price of Crude takes a hit like it has......maybe somebody knows something regarding........
ISIS has gained much favor in that region, and Saudi is more than a little concerned about the current security situation....an overwhelming show of US military support in the event that the Saudi's see some heat is no longer a slam dunk.
The ISIS conversation is a long one....it will have to wait until after trading hours; but my opinion is that ISIS is a player for a reason, is permitted to be and tolerated for the very same reason.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Quote Originally Posted by pinoy1da:
Oil is getting smoked. they're stil gonna be dumping till atleast the $30s maybe even test back to 2008 when it was $34.
Saudi has a history of blowing up infrastructure, sinking oil tankers, delaying shipments when the price of Crude takes a hit like it has......maybe somebody knows something regarding........
ISIS has gained much favor in that region, and Saudi is more than a little concerned about the current security situation....an overwhelming show of US military support in the event that the Saudi's see some heat is no longer a slam dunk.
The ISIS conversation is a long one....it will have to wait until after trading hours; but my opinion is that ISIS is a player for a reason, is permitted to be and tolerated for the very same reason.
Absolute brutal trading conditions today....they write about days like this in trading 101....something about a 10 ft pole.
If anyone is scalping crude oil, make note of days like today... WTI inventory day, first day of trading on the May contract for crude (split volume), FOMC announcements at 12 (mtn time) and another Fed release at 12:30. All of the stimuli screw with the order flow something fierce.
I have learned that lesson in the past...not worth it. Better off to stay in bed. Right now CL May contract is trading 44.50ish.
Buyers protected 44 even with conviction earlier today.....just have to wait and see.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Absolute brutal trading conditions today....they write about days like this in trading 101....something about a 10 ft pole.
If anyone is scalping crude oil, make note of days like today... WTI inventory day, first day of trading on the May contract for crude (split volume), FOMC announcements at 12 (mtn time) and another Fed release at 12:30. All of the stimuli screw with the order flow something fierce.
I have learned that lesson in the past...not worth it. Better off to stay in bed. Right now CL May contract is trading 44.50ish.
Buyers protected 44 even with conviction earlier today.....just have to wait and see.
I got impatient waiting for UGAZ to get to 2.50 again so I could add more shares, instead I bought UWTI. Mistake, but it wasn't a huge position.
I stop lossed myself out at 2.09. Re-entered at 1.95. Was a little worried at $1.80 today. If oil went to $40 a barrel, my calculations would be UWTI at $1.60.
The Fed news caused an extreme reversal. $1.85 became $2.20 by close.
If UWTI crosses UGAZ at some point I may sell and add those funds to UGAZ. I think it's a bit more stable in the off season than oil is, and isn't as volatile based on political events. It looks like it's starting it's recovery process, but we'll see about the gas report tomorrow at 10:30 AM.
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I got impatient waiting for UGAZ to get to 2.50 again so I could add more shares, instead I bought UWTI. Mistake, but it wasn't a huge position.
I stop lossed myself out at 2.09. Re-entered at 1.95. Was a little worried at $1.80 today. If oil went to $40 a barrel, my calculations would be UWTI at $1.60.
The Fed news caused an extreme reversal. $1.85 became $2.20 by close.
If UWTI crosses UGAZ at some point I may sell and add those funds to UGAZ. I think it's a bit more stable in the off season than oil is, and isn't as volatile based on political events. It looks like it's starting it's recovery process, but we'll see about the gas report tomorrow at 10:30 AM.
oil should climb in todays market reports in yemen the sunni extremist al quedi 200 break out of prison while the Saudis a plummeting the Shiite extremists in the western yemen. anytime this area is in jeopardy of destabilizing the market seems to spike in anticipation of supply shortages.
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oil should climb in todays market reports in yemen the sunni extremist al quedi 200 break out of prison while the Saudis a plummeting the Shiite extremists in the western yemen. anytime this area is in jeopardy of destabilizing the market seems to spike in anticipation of supply shortages.
Trading around the 50$ mark for the may contract...compression, trading 50.00 even every day.
The Sept calls are back in the money, currently priced out at 8.18 per contract. Still looking for that price jump up into the 60's, or at least a challenge of 60 even.
Not much going on this week...futures markets closed today for Good Friday. The rest of April will tell the tale on the pending uptick in CL......for my Sept call options to hit in a big way, we need to print a 60 by months end; if not, I will be looking at cutting the position by the end of May.
Like always, wait and see mode.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
0
Trading around the 50$ mark for the may contract...compression, trading 50.00 even every day.
The Sept calls are back in the money, currently priced out at 8.18 per contract. Still looking for that price jump up into the 60's, or at least a challenge of 60 even.
Not much going on this week...futures markets closed today for Good Friday. The rest of April will tell the tale on the pending uptick in CL......for my Sept call options to hit in a big way, we need to print a 60 by months end; if not, I will be looking at cutting the position by the end of May.
Showing signs of life.....big number up at 54.00...last month's high on the May CL.
Trend day up today on the 30m May chart, looking at 5384 as the session high.
Today's close will be big.....range looks to be in...selling off to 53.25 right now under large volume...IF we run at 54 even on the close, we could look at a big move quickly.
Daily chart is in upward trend mode...upper Bollinger band at 5395....key number at 38% of the Monthly, at 6492.
It has been tough to call the exact bottom of this market, but the low 40's look to have been a good play for the second time this year. The sept calls are in the money, the 2016 calls are at the money. IF we roll upwards of 60 in the next week or so, I will be willing to take profits on 1 of the calls.....will let the other ride looking for 75.00 this summer.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
0
Showing signs of life.....big number up at 54.00...last month's high on the May CL.
Trend day up today on the 30m May chart, looking at 5384 as the session high.
Today's close will be big.....range looks to be in...selling off to 53.25 right now under large volume...IF we run at 54 even on the close, we could look at a big move quickly.
Daily chart is in upward trend mode...upper Bollinger band at 5395....key number at 38% of the Monthly, at 6492.
It has been tough to call the exact bottom of this market, but the low 40's look to have been a good play for the second time this year. The sept calls are in the money, the 2016 calls are at the money. IF we roll upwards of 60 in the next week or so, I will be willing to take profits on 1 of the calls.....will let the other ride looking for 75.00 this summer.
as stocks and metal dropping sharply today oil spiking, IF these chain of events continue oil should be near july 2014 level within a few weeks, bibi in isreal is signaling a return to power as he locks up the coalition to majority in parliment that alone will push the price over 60. within three day window. saw west texas crude trading for 54. Iran showing signs of mining activites in straight as small cigar boats seem to be in a determined pattern waiting to inevitable break down in talks with us over sanction relief..... saudis now loosely aligned to alquada arabian pennisula in a continued campaign to destroy the hooti rebels ..... all points to a spike in oil.
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as stocks and metal dropping sharply today oil spiking, IF these chain of events continue oil should be near july 2014 level within a few weeks, bibi in isreal is signaling a return to power as he locks up the coalition to majority in parliment that alone will push the price over 60. within three day window. saw west texas crude trading for 54. Iran showing signs of mining activites in straight as small cigar boats seem to be in a determined pattern waiting to inevitable break down in talks with us over sanction relief..... saudis now loosely aligned to alquada arabian pennisula in a continued campaign to destroy the hooti rebels ..... all points to a spike in oil.
Number came out this evening of a HUGE inventory build..the hedge fund boys have been buying all and any news and I think the will be wrong, that or they are setting a retail trap.
The Saudis and OPEC knows they did not knock out US shale oil yet, add that Iraq has been producing more lately, I think production will not stop.
At some point unless production slows dramatically, storage options will start being more and more difficult to hoard oil and it will start hitting prices hard.
Make no mistake, this bounce is not based on production being lowered or any supply side issue..this is commodity based gambling that hedgies and HTF firms are playing..I dont think anything has changed from a supply and demand perspective.
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I dont see a spike in oil..
Number came out this evening of a HUGE inventory build..the hedge fund boys have been buying all and any news and I think the will be wrong, that or they are setting a retail trap.
The Saudis and OPEC knows they did not knock out US shale oil yet, add that Iraq has been producing more lately, I think production will not stop.
At some point unless production slows dramatically, storage options will start being more and more difficult to hoard oil and it will start hitting prices hard.
Make no mistake, this bounce is not based on production being lowered or any supply side issue..this is commodity based gambling that hedgies and HTF firms are playing..I dont think anything has changed from a supply and demand perspective.
Trading 5267 currently.....looks like a bit of a failed auction under 5250...session low at 5243. EIA number out at 8:30 mtn time....... Chain looks thin from 5250 to 5182...poised for a fill in to the bear if this thing gets cranking.
Pretty tight right now.....EIA # will bang this thing either way. Could fill in yesterday afternoon's selloff and run at 5400 or dump towards 51.....wait and see mode.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Trading 5267 currently.....looks like a bit of a failed auction under 5250...session low at 5243. EIA number out at 8:30 mtn time....... Chain looks thin from 5250 to 5182...poised for a fill in to the bear if this thing gets cranking.
Pretty tight right now.....EIA # will bang this thing either way. Could fill in yesterday afternoon's selloff and run at 5400 or dump towards 51.....wait and see mode.
I actually jumped ship on Thursday and bought DWTI (inverse - shorting crude oil) into the Iran agreement. Made a nice 1000 profit and sold.
Unfortunately, I got greedy and bought back in and wiped out all my profits by COB Thursday. I usually never hold short equities longer than a day, but somehow I got the bright idea to do so over the weekend.
The unemployment report Friday sent crude spiking on Monday and Tuesday. I ended up losing over $6,000.
I made a chunk of it back today, but I'm hoping that crude trends down for a little bit. If/when it gets to 46-47 a barrel I'll sell and go long crude oil for the summer.
I really need to warn anyone considering investing in 3x oil/gas commodities like I did though. These things are dangerous, and at times the movement is like a slot machine. Harsh swings on a daily basis on top of decay that erodes away the value. I do not recommend people trading commodities unless they know what they're doing, because I lost a ton of money learning, and it was quick and swift.
Looks like crude will be up tomorrow and is trading at over $51 a barrel after hours.
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I actually jumped ship on Thursday and bought DWTI (inverse - shorting crude oil) into the Iran agreement. Made a nice 1000 profit and sold.
Unfortunately, I got greedy and bought back in and wiped out all my profits by COB Thursday. I usually never hold short equities longer than a day, but somehow I got the bright idea to do so over the weekend.
The unemployment report Friday sent crude spiking on Monday and Tuesday. I ended up losing over $6,000.
I made a chunk of it back today, but I'm hoping that crude trends down for a little bit. If/when it gets to 46-47 a barrel I'll sell and go long crude oil for the summer.
I really need to warn anyone considering investing in 3x oil/gas commodities like I did though. These things are dangerous, and at times the movement is like a slot machine. Harsh swings on a daily basis on top of decay that erodes away the value. I do not recommend people trading commodities unless they know what they're doing, because I lost a ton of money learning, and it was quick and swift.
Looks like crude will be up tomorrow and is trading at over $51 a barrel after hours.
P.S. The big drop in oil today was because of the record production from Saudi Arabia that WallStreetCappers mentioned. Saudi Arabia produced the most oil in their history during the month of March.
The US also had an 11M barrel surplus for last week, which is what the EIA report is based on. This was compared to an estimated surplus of around 3.
I'm hoping that fundamentals win out on this one in the short term. I'm not trying to hold a short position for too long. With all the Middle East turmoil, any conflicts can cause random spikes in the price of crude.
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P.S. The big drop in oil today was because of the record production from Saudi Arabia that WallStreetCappers mentioned. Saudi Arabia produced the most oil in their history during the month of March.
The US also had an 11M barrel surplus for last week, which is what the EIA report is based on. This was compared to an estimated surplus of around 3.
I'm hoping that fundamentals win out on this one in the short term. I'm not trying to hold a short position for too long. With all the Middle East turmoil, any conflicts can cause random spikes in the price of crude.
Watching the charts after hours here.......strong scalping opportunity under 50.50.....compression pattern with sell signal and a round number equals a jam to the low.
Key MP at 4989, we could be looking at a direct test of 50.00 in the overnight...will be shorting under 50.50 no matter what time it is.......
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Watching the charts after hours here.......strong scalping opportunity under 50.50.....compression pattern with sell signal and a round number equals a jam to the low.
Key MP at 4989, we could be looking at a direct test of 50.00 in the overnight...will be shorting under 50.50 no matter what time it is.......
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