refineries now pressed to limits all us refineries stating at 24-7 operations to make summer grade less polution . more costly gas but movements in production short term was to limit american production seemed to be failing as world production day by day reaching new records. supply is 1.2 times demand logic dictates price must move down because their is only so many places to hold this oil. tankers tanks have a large but limited space. even in china strategic reserves now 110 % of projection. Oil must move for anyone to make a profit.
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refineries now pressed to limits all us refineries stating at 24-7 operations to make summer grade less polution . more costly gas but movements in production short term was to limit american production seemed to be failing as world production day by day reaching new records. supply is 1.2 times demand logic dictates price must move down because their is only so many places to hold this oil. tankers tanks have a large but limited space. even in china strategic reserves now 110 % of projection. Oil must move for anyone to make a profit.
other concern is gold to oil in 2001 when oil was 10-15 gold was 250 when oil is 30 gold is 700 when gold is 2,000 oil reaching +100 gold is in a freefall below 1,000 oil should be 45.
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other concern is gold to oil in 2001 when oil was 10-15 gold was 250 when oil is 30 gold is 700 when gold is 2,000 oil reaching +100 gold is in a freefall below 1,000 oil should be 45.
Well, we are coming off a period of compression that has been brutal to day trade. Currently showing a print of 6085 on July CL, with the WTI # and FOMC meeting today to shake things up.
CL has a way of settling into these mundane grooves where scalping ticks becomes a selective endevour, and the r:r daytrade spots are few and far between. As of right now my daily range oscillator has contracted to 168 ticks, which is tight in comparison to the 250ish that we saw last fall, and the low 200's that we saw through April.
As for an intermediate term prognosis, I would still be looking for a test of that 65 area.....not sure when, but we should be testing it this month, or early next on the roll to August CL.
Not real sure I would be holding longs from this level; the market is having trouble sustaining any juice above 60.00, and I would suspect that we could be in for a bubble pop in the fall if we are trading in the 60-70 range.
A big trade that I have on the board is in August Gold (GC) for today. Sell signal with compression on the daily chart....sell at 1175.3, underneath yesterday's low. We are seeing extremely tight conditions in GC today in anticipation of the FOMC and Fed releases at 12:00 and 12:30 pm mtn time today.
IF the number of 1175.3 gets hit, it could be a light show to the bear.....will be in heavily for the initial move, and may be playing a runner to low. As of now we are trading 1178.3 at 7:49 mtn, and the number is still untouched....within striking range.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
0
Well, we are coming off a period of compression that has been brutal to day trade. Currently showing a print of 6085 on July CL, with the WTI # and FOMC meeting today to shake things up.
CL has a way of settling into these mundane grooves where scalping ticks becomes a selective endevour, and the r:r daytrade spots are few and far between. As of right now my daily range oscillator has contracted to 168 ticks, which is tight in comparison to the 250ish that we saw last fall, and the low 200's that we saw through April.
As for an intermediate term prognosis, I would still be looking for a test of that 65 area.....not sure when, but we should be testing it this month, or early next on the roll to August CL.
Not real sure I would be holding longs from this level; the market is having trouble sustaining any juice above 60.00, and I would suspect that we could be in for a bubble pop in the fall if we are trading in the 60-70 range.
A big trade that I have on the board is in August Gold (GC) for today. Sell signal with compression on the daily chart....sell at 1175.3, underneath yesterday's low. We are seeing extremely tight conditions in GC today in anticipation of the FOMC and Fed releases at 12:00 and 12:30 pm mtn time today.
IF the number of 1175.3 gets hit, it could be a light show to the bear.....will be in heavily for the initial move, and may be playing a runner to low. As of now we are trading 1178.3 at 7:49 mtn, and the number is still untouched....within striking range.
stopped out of UWTI - for net loss of 10%. Loaded up in spy march 3 and march 4 206 calls at the close and will be buying the dips to 2019-2022. I also loaded up in to aapl at the close. I will be adding the april 125 calls all the way down to 120. With a stop at 119. Good luck! I own a bunch of rig common avg 15.xx, along with oas avg 13.xx and eog with avg $85.xx had some from lower. I also added to my pgh position back to half a position. STAY SCARED EVERYONE!! It is possible to make new lows in WTI before a bounce. But I am holding here. BANKS WILL BE THE PLAY FOR 2015. just look at the ten year................ New highs before Q2 pullback
As I rolled a good amount of my portfolio in to banks back in march and april this has been a good year. Pick up Semi's and continue to add to the biotech bubble. 2016 20% pullback/ 2017 bear market in the cards!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by Caper03:
stopped out of UWTI - for net loss of 10%. Loaded up in spy march 3 and march 4 206 calls at the close and will be buying the dips to 2019-2022. I also loaded up in to aapl at the close. I will be adding the april 125 calls all the way down to 120. With a stop at 119. Good luck! I own a bunch of rig common avg 15.xx, along with oas avg 13.xx and eog with avg $85.xx had some from lower. I also added to my pgh position back to half a position. STAY SCARED EVERYONE!! It is possible to make new lows in WTI before a bounce. But I am holding here. BANKS WILL BE THE PLAY FOR 2015. just look at the ten year................ New highs before Q2 pullback
As I rolled a good amount of my portfolio in to banks back in march and april this has been a good year. Pick up Semi's and continue to add to the biotech bubble. 2016 20% pullback/ 2017 bear market in the cards!!!
Seriously? (previous poster) ... You can read into a 20% pull back for 2016 & 2017 bear market.... which ironically is the same thing. lol.. I wonder if the previous poster truly knows what he is talking about . Seems an immature post.. Anyway..
Let's discuss the oil market which is what the OP had discussed. It seems the American drillers have been a victim of their own success. Their ability to significantly increase global output via shale/horizontal drilling has more than made up for the decrease in consumption on the global market (i.e. China). It looks to be rough sledding for anybody tied to the oil market for the next 12 months or so. I have been a big proponent of big oil in the last few years, but this is a change that could be changing the dynamic for years to come. I don't think oil gets much better soon.. and the buyouts we haven't seen recently could come to fruition in the months ahead. Expect some of these small oil/gas drillers to draw the attention of "big oil".
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Seriously? (previous poster) ... You can read into a 20% pull back for 2016 & 2017 bear market.... which ironically is the same thing. lol.. I wonder if the previous poster truly knows what he is talking about . Seems an immature post.. Anyway..
Let's discuss the oil market which is what the OP had discussed. It seems the American drillers have been a victim of their own success. Their ability to significantly increase global output via shale/horizontal drilling has more than made up for the decrease in consumption on the global market (i.e. China). It looks to be rough sledding for anybody tied to the oil market for the next 12 months or so. I have been a big proponent of big oil in the last few years, but this is a change that could be changing the dynamic for years to come. I don't think oil gets much better soon.. and the buyouts we haven't seen recently could come to fruition in the months ahead. Expect some of these small oil/gas drillers to draw the attention of "big oil".
1) We never did test the mid 60's, 38% retracement level.....that is a strong sign that this weak.
2) We are still selling.......47 $ print in late July. If you would have told me this in January, I would have called you a liar.
3) There is an artificial bottle neck in the gasoline markets....if this CL level goes lower in the fall, we should see a national average in the 1.75$per gallon area.
4) All in all, I am happy with my early exit from the options trades last spring....IF I had gotten greedy and looked to hold for the big $$$, then I would be in a position of taking a large loss.
My bottom call of 44-40 is likely to come back into play during this selloff.......I will NOT be going long in the options market for the 3rd time this year. GL to anyone that does.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Well, a few points:
1) We never did test the mid 60's, 38% retracement level.....that is a strong sign that this weak.
2) We are still selling.......47 $ print in late July. If you would have told me this in January, I would have called you a liar.
3) There is an artificial bottle neck in the gasoline markets....if this CL level goes lower in the fall, we should see a national average in the 1.75$per gallon area.
4) All in all, I am happy with my early exit from the options trades last spring....IF I had gotten greedy and looked to hold for the big $$$, then I would be in a position of taking a large loss.
My bottom call of 44-40 is likely to come back into play during this selloff.......I will NOT be going long in the options market for the 3rd time this year. GL to anyone that does.
We are printing near 42 even.... not sure where this thing is going to bottom....possible long play this fall, but it is murderer's row out there ....intraday longs are getting creamed daily.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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We are printing near 42 even.... not sure where this thing is going to bottom....possible long play this fall, but it is murderer's row out there ....intraday longs are getting creamed daily.
This is gonna continue to get worse before it gets better. Here's why ;
* China is slowing , and that doesn't seem to be changing anytime soon.
* Iran is itching to start supplying its 2-3mbpd of oil to the world market
* American drillers are hardly reducing oil output compared to 2014, though they have nearly cut back on nearly 1/2 the of rigs in 2015. The efficiency of the American drillers is off the charts.
Add all this up, and I wouldn't be surprised to see oil settle to the low 30s over the coming months. I will be a buyer there, but I'm not expecting a V-shaped recovery in the oil business.
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This is gonna continue to get worse before it gets better. Here's why ;
* China is slowing , and that doesn't seem to be changing anytime soon.
* Iran is itching to start supplying its 2-3mbpd of oil to the world market
* American drillers are hardly reducing oil output compared to 2014, though they have nearly cut back on nearly 1/2 the of rigs in 2015. The efficiency of the American drillers is off the charts.
Add all this up, and I wouldn't be surprised to see oil settle to the low 30s over the coming months. I will be a buyer there, but I'm not expecting a V-shaped recovery in the oil business.
Sell.....selll......and sell some more. This seems to be the order of the day. All in all, it is markets like these that I am glad to be a scalper. The longs look to get wiped out at 40.00.....we saw some last ditch dollar cost averaging today at 4050; large amounts of capital attempting to pick an exact bottom and get back some of the lost capital on the ride down.
The CL weekly chart is a steep, hard trend down...the monthly is much the same, and the daily looks like a slower grind towards 40 even. FWIW, I have a buy indicator showing up for tommorrows session...buy at 4182.....and a sell signal beneath yesterday's low of 40.50. Would be surprised if we go trend day down tommorrow; rotation is much more likely, but the daily ranges are not that impressive. This market is ugly for the bulls. Period.
I would have to say that most of the mom and pop drillers in North America are finished....the consolidation of the industry is becoming more and more a reality as we move forward with depressed CL pricing.
Some food for thought regarding the current state of affairs in the oil industry:
Pretty good piece on the strategy creditors will be taking in places like the Bakken...and a pretty smart hedging strategy by playing Canadian oil vs WTI:
Add it up. The potential for harvesting crude oil in North america continues to be increased, and by the time it becomes economically viable for someone to harvest the crude, you will be able to count the companies doing so on one hand.
Rush-
I agree with you on the recovery projection....earlier this year I made some option plays from 44ish, got the rally up to the mid 50's, and then played it again and got the bump to 64.....this trip down, the odds are stacked heavily in the favor of trading in the 30's for an extended period; 40 is a monster, and the whole world will be selling 39.99.
The recovery of the CL market will come on as fast as the selling did...IMO we will not see institutional monies moving back into the market until the 2016 Elections have been decided.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Sell.....selll......and sell some more. This seems to be the order of the day. All in all, it is markets like these that I am glad to be a scalper. The longs look to get wiped out at 40.00.....we saw some last ditch dollar cost averaging today at 4050; large amounts of capital attempting to pick an exact bottom and get back some of the lost capital on the ride down.
The CL weekly chart is a steep, hard trend down...the monthly is much the same, and the daily looks like a slower grind towards 40 even. FWIW, I have a buy indicator showing up for tommorrows session...buy at 4182.....and a sell signal beneath yesterday's low of 40.50. Would be surprised if we go trend day down tommorrow; rotation is much more likely, but the daily ranges are not that impressive. This market is ugly for the bulls. Period.
I would have to say that most of the mom and pop drillers in North America are finished....the consolidation of the industry is becoming more and more a reality as we move forward with depressed CL pricing.
Some food for thought regarding the current state of affairs in the oil industry:
Pretty good piece on the strategy creditors will be taking in places like the Bakken...and a pretty smart hedging strategy by playing Canadian oil vs WTI:
Add it up. The potential for harvesting crude oil in North america continues to be increased, and by the time it becomes economically viable for someone to harvest the crude, you will be able to count the companies doing so on one hand.
Rush-
I agree with you on the recovery projection....earlier this year I made some option plays from 44ish, got the rally up to the mid 50's, and then played it again and got the bump to 64.....this trip down, the odds are stacked heavily in the favor of trading in the 30's for an extended period; 40 is a monster, and the whole world will be selling 39.99.
The recovery of the CL market will come on as fast as the selling did...IMO we will not see institutional monies moving back into the market until the 2016 Elections have been decided.
There is nothing keeping oil from slipping into the 30's , particularly with the wave of bad news from China. Both the demand & supply side of the oil equation is just awful, and I expect a full capitulation soon. Soon, folks will sell at any price and that is when I will pick up more of the integrators. The big names you are familiar with are the ones that will benefit most when the minors have payment problems and are willing to sell prized oil fields.
Just as a brief background for those that don't follow the oil industry closely, it isn't the Exxon's and Chevron's of the world that have pioneered the oil/gas shale industry revolution and have driven oil prices to unprecedented lows... it is the smaller drillers (wildcatters) , that have pioneered a lot of the extra oil supplied on the oil market. (horizontal drilling, fracking)
In many ways, the small drillers of the U.S. have been a victim of their own success.
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There is nothing keeping oil from slipping into the 30's , particularly with the wave of bad news from China. Both the demand & supply side of the oil equation is just awful, and I expect a full capitulation soon. Soon, folks will sell at any price and that is when I will pick up more of the integrators. The big names you are familiar with are the ones that will benefit most when the minors have payment problems and are willing to sell prized oil fields.
Just as a brief background for those that don't follow the oil industry closely, it isn't the Exxon's and Chevron's of the world that have pioneered the oil/gas shale industry revolution and have driven oil prices to unprecedented lows... it is the smaller drillers (wildcatters) , that have pioneered a lot of the extra oil supplied on the oil market. (horizontal drilling, fracking)
In many ways, the small drillers of the U.S. have been a victim of their own success.
Small players kept leveraging, same goes for mid players..looking to grow too fast and expand too fast.
This leverage works when prices are high but it will be the undoing now that prices are low.
I am a bit surprised that the little players stuck in the game this long, prices are way under their break even and are under their fixed costs as well (an accounting term for surviving at the minimum).
The bigger guys are not at bargain prices yet..yeah they are down from highs but if you look at even 5 yr charts Shell is just back to where was in 2011. COP, BP, XOM, all of them are a good 10 bucks higher than the lows in 2009.
I like the dividend yields, some are at 6% but prices while low are not historic lows nor panic prices at all yet.
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To me the failure is due to leverage..
Small players kept leveraging, same goes for mid players..looking to grow too fast and expand too fast.
This leverage works when prices are high but it will be the undoing now that prices are low.
I am a bit surprised that the little players stuck in the game this long, prices are way under their break even and are under their fixed costs as well (an accounting term for surviving at the minimum).
The bigger guys are not at bargain prices yet..yeah they are down from highs but if you look at even 5 yr charts Shell is just back to where was in 2011. COP, BP, XOM, all of them are a good 10 bucks higher than the lows in 2009.
I like the dividend yields, some are at 6% but prices while low are not historic lows nor panic prices at all yet.
We will see what happens to the equities on the close...the first hour of trading was one for the ages.....
CL is printing 38.50 right now on huge volumes.....no idea where we are headed in the short term, but there is no way I would be long this market. No way.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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We will see what happens to the equities on the close...the first hour of trading was one for the ages.....
CL is printing 38.50 right now on huge volumes.....no idea where we are headed in the short term, but there is no way I would be long this market. No way.
CL under 38 now but interestingly the players are not really getting crushed as they should.
Main guys are down less on a percentage basis than crude is itself, which you would think given the leverage used a 6% drop in crude would mean MORE than a 6% drop in profits..especially with the market multiples as they are.
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CL under 38 now but interestingly the players are not really getting crushed as they should.
Main guys are down less on a percentage basis than crude is itself, which you would think given the leverage used a 6% drop in crude would mean MORE than a 6% drop in profits..especially with the market multiples as they are.
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