⚾️ 👉 FUBAH2's "Mystery angle" thread

The "Mystery Angle" identifies these for Sunday:

(overnight lines always Bet365 unless indicated)

            INDIANS  -230

            ATHLETICS -195

@fubah2

 77% YTD. Winning! 

Adding:

BREWERS -180

@fubah2

 Positive day for me with the A's, Brewers and Angels. Thanks!

2 - 1 for -0.30 units net on Sunday

  29 days tracking here:  39 - 13    for +14.00 units net

"Mystery Angle"  YTD:    52 - 16    (*mean average price is -212)

Remember what I said at the beginning of this long thread:
        regression is inevitable at some point, sooner or later, 
       because good numbers like this just won't last forever.
The unanswered questions are: by how much will this angle regress? just a little? or by a lot?
and WHEN will this regression occur? soon? or later?
There has only been minor regression, so far.  It's still profitable, as you can see.

Check back later if curious about Monday possibles.

           *HOT STREAK ALERT*

LYNN (WhiteSox) is currently riding an 11 consecutive game streak without a BAD outing.

**On Sunday, GERMAN (Yankees) had his 9 consecutive game streak crash
         to a halt against the mediocre Phillies.
**On Saturday, BAUER (Dodgers) had his 13 consecutive game streak abruptly end
         against the woeful Rangers.

It can happen at any time; not just when facing great offenses.
ALL starters have a BAD outing sooner or later when on a long streak
of very good performances. It is inevitable! And after so many consecutive,
good performances, they are obviously getting closer to that inevitability.

This doesn't mean it will happen today,
...but a BAD outing is definitely coming,
and it could be today.

Also, consider that even IF the excellent starter avoids a BAD outing
that doesn't guarantee his team wins the game!

Also, the good starters who are on a long consecutive streak without a BAD outing,
are typically pricey favs - and in certain cases a fade might be considered!

Declining influence of STARTERS on game results
(resulting in an INCREASED influence of bullpens on results)

(shows avg ip by starter and avg pitch count)

2011__6.0 ip___97
2012__5.9 ip___95
2013__5.9 ip___95
2014__6.0 ip___96
2015__5.8 ip___93 <----- noticeable decline begins
2016__5.6 ip___93
2017__5.5 ip___92
2018__5.4 ip___88
2019__5.2 ip___86
2020__ *covid*
2021__5.1 ip___84

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

The "Mystery Angle" identifies these for Monday:

          CARDINALS -185

Adding:

            GIANTS -180

1 - 0 so far tonight with this angle.

Just waiting to see if the GIANTS can make it 2 - 0.

More tomorrow.

@fubah2

Dang. Missed the Cards and Giants posts, had to go to work at 4:00. Had a nice 3 teamer though going against White Sox, and road losers Orioles and Dbacks. Would have been a winning 4 teamer. Next time... Thanks again!  

2 - 0 for 2.00 units net on Monday

  30 days tracking here:  41 - 13    for +16.00 units net

"Mystery Angle"  YTD:    54 - 16    (*mean average price is -209)

Remember what I said at the beginning of this long thread:
        regression is inevitable at some point, sooner or later, 
       because good numbers like this just won't last forever.
The unanswered questions are: by how much will this angle regress? just a little? or by a lot?
and WHEN will this regression occur? soon? or later?
There has only been minor regression, so far.  It's still profitable, as you can see.

There is one selection for Tuesday: DODGERS -185

Mystery Angle for Tuesday:

INDIANS -170

            *HOT STREAK ALERT*

ROGERS (Marlins) is currently riding a 13 consecutive game streak without a BAD outing.

On Sunday, GERMAN (Yankees) had his 9 consecutive game streak crash
to a halt against the mediocre Phillies.
On Saturday, BAUER (Dodgers) had his 13 consecutive game streak abruptly end
against the woeful Rangers.

It can happen at any time; not just facing great offenses.
ALL starters have a BAD outing sooner or later when on a long streak
of very good performances. It is inevitable! After so many consecutive
good performances, they are obviously getting closer to that inevitability.

This doesn't mean it will happen today,
...but a BAD outing is definitely coming,
and it could be today.

Also, consider that even IF the excellent starter avoids a BAD outing
that doesn't guarantee his team wins the game!

another   *HOT STREAK ALERT*

GIBSON (Rangers) is currently riding an 11 consecutive game streak without a BAD outing,

and he's on the road against a particularly GOOD offensive team.

ALL starters have a BAD outing sooner or later when on a long streak
of very good performances. It is inevitable! After so many consecutive
good performances, they are obviously getting closer to that inevitability.

This doesn't mean it will happen today,
...but a BAD outing is definitely coming,  and it could be today.

Also, consider that even IF the excellent starter avoids a BAD outing
that doesn't guarantee his team wins the game!

I'll pass on either side of this one.

The "Mystery Angle" had another winning day, Tuesday, going  2 - 0

 Nicely done. Keep up the great work

Awesome

Can’t wait for today’s Mystery Angle 

The "Mystery Angle" identifies these for Wednesday, June 16:

ASTROS -220 (BetCRIS)

GIANTS -170 (Bet365)

and I will personally bet both of theses as well.

I would be remiss if I did not mention ...

          *HOT STREAK ALERT*

DeGROM (Amazing Mets) is currently riding a 10 consecutive game streak without a BAD outing.

For this reason the METS do not qualify as "Mystery Angle" play.

Personally I think the METS win this regardless what deGROM does, but $ -290 is too risky in this spot even for me.  LOL

I won't fade him in this spot though!

On Sunday, GERMAN (Yankees) had his 9 consecutive game streak crash
to a halt against the mediocre Phillies.
On Saturday, BAUER (Dodgers) had his 13 consecutive game streak abruptly end
against the woeful Rangers.

*It can happen at any time; not just facing great offenses.
ALL starters have a BAD outing sooner or later when on a long streak
of very good performances. It is inevitable! After so many consecutive
good performances, they are obviously getting closer to that inevitability.

This doesn't mean it will happen today,
...but a BAD outing is definitely coming,
and it could be today.

Although, even if an excellent starter has a BAD outing, his team could
still win the game! OTOH, even if he avoids a BAD outing, they could still lose!
But usually, a truly BAD outing (particularly if yanked early) results in a loser.

2 - 0 on Wednesday

What's the mystery angle? Take every heavy fav?... my kid could solve that mystery.. just saying

There's a couple other variables but when it gives out winners at a 3 1/2 - 1 rate and the average play is a 2-1 pay to play there's alot of reasons to just follow

@YouFailedMath

This angle adds ANGELS -220 as well.

Normally when the starter (Ohtani) is on a 9 game consecutive streak without a BAD outing this would NOT be an angle play, because in my style capping, I DOWNGRADE  my assessment of that starter somewhat to account for the increasing probability of a bad outing - which typically negates MOST of that starter's advantage on the mound, imo.

But in this particular case, he is facing Manning - a AAA minor leaguer with poor stats, making his debut.  So even with my subjective downgrade to Ohtani he is still significantly better and together with a significantly better offense, that makes this a qualified angle play.