This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
SKENES, Pirates
Did NOT have a BAD outing today, with only 2 ER after 5.1 ip....so regardless the final score, his HOT STREAK will continue to 9 consecutive games without a BAD outing....
ORIOLES are 15 - 7 when Corbin Burnes starts (7 - 3 road)
In those 22 starts, he allowed only 2 or fewer runs in 17! Amazing!
By my methods, I credit him with a "Bad outing" in ONLY 2 STARTS!!! 
And both those on a technicality of allowing 4 ER in 7 ip and 3 ER in 5.2 ip.
Both close calls, because he actually pitched quite well, with a WHIP stat below 0.95 in both!!!
He goes up against a young righty with mediocre stats in 6 starts, while not yet facing a TOP 9 team...
Orioles are currently 3rd overall...
Leaning to Orioles, but I haven't bet, am not endorsing, and if I bet it would be small
Orioles win 9 - 5! 
WARNING: STREAKER alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! 
SKENES, Pirates
SKENES, Pirates Did NOT have a BAD outing today, with only 2 ER after 5.1 ip....so regardless the final score, his HOT STREAK will continue to 9 consecutive games without a BAD outing....
Perhaps some of you have, like me, chosen to PASS on a team when I have posted these HOT STREAK alerts, like today on the Pirates (Skenes) ....so in what may be considered a stroke of good fortune, although Skenes did not have a bad outing, those who chose to PASS on the Pirates were rewarded by NOT LOSING A BET! 
@Aliosha
Good Q 
My metrics for determining a "BAD outing" by a starter...
Three broad classifications are: Good, Mediocre, Bad.
Every starter has a BAD outing sooner or later and usually 5 to 15 times per season.
The other starts are either Good or mediocre.
It is not based on final score or whether he is credited with a win or not, just on his pitching stats.
I use ESPN's "game log" link on each starter's profile to evaluate
My method of capping, necessarily includes some subjective judgement with the close calls but generally:
The determination mostly settles around keeping the earned runs no worse than HALF the number of innings pitched. I am isolating ONLY the outings classed as "BAD"
• 4 or more earned runs against is automatically categorized BAD, and usually means a LOSS for the team.
• 3 earned runs could be either Mediocre or BAD...depending on ip and WHIP (I include "Hit by Pitch" with the WHIP - since obviously THAT is bad pitching)
- if 3 ER in 5.2 ip or less with a WHIP stat at or above 1.50, this is weak pitching and classed as BAD
- if 3 ER in exactly 6.0 ip or more with a WHIP stat no worse than 1.70, I class that as MEDIOCRE. A higher WHIP stats but with 3 ER in 6 ip would trigger a "BAD" classification. I know it's a close call but I gotta draw the line somewhere.
• 2 earned runs against (if at least 5 ip) is almost always acceptable - EXCEPT in those cases where I deem the starter got lucky (bad pitching bailed out by extraordinary defense) like a WHIP of 2.00 or similar but only 2 ER and less than 5 ip. MUST NOT be allowing 2 men on bases every inning and call that good pitching even if there is no score. GOOD pitching is not allowing anybody on base to begin with!! (other than intentional walks for strategy)
• 0 ER or 1 ER always earns a good classification.
When the classification is so close that I need to assess subjectively, it is only THEN that I may also look at strikeouts totals. Strikeouts are nice and a measure of skill, sure, BUT preventing scores against is the ultimate goal, so ER + WHIP are most important in my method of capping. Perhaps not for others, so whatever works...
Good call! 
Frequency/consistency is a key to my evaluation of a starter
Example, comparing earned runs in 12 hypothetical starts
Guy #1: 7 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 7 2 2 = 34 runs in 72 ip = 4.25 ERA
Guy #2: 0 4 1 5 5 0 1 5 2 4 5 0 = 32 runs in 74 ip = 3.89 ERA!!
The second dude has a better ERA but he's all over the board...no consistency!...only 4 GOOD outings vs 6 BAD!!!
BUT...first guy looks to be pretty damn consistent at keeping his earned runs to 2 or less!
By my count: 9 GOOD outings, 1 mediocre, and only 2 BAD (maybe one-offs??) This gives his team a much better chance to win DESPITE owning a higher ERA!
See what I mean about consistency? (ie, frequency of GOOD vs BAD)
Scoring the number of GOOD outings vs BAD is a very large part of my success!......but for some inexplicable reason, it is a tool which works extraordinarily well BEFORE the ASB, but flattens out or actually reverses every baseball season AFTER ASB
Small correction on 5th line... 6 vs 6 (not 4)
Frequency/consistency is a key to my evaluation of a starter
Example, comparing earned runs in 12 hypothetical starts
Guy #1: 7 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 7 2 2 = 34 runs in 72 ip = 4.25 ERA
Guy #2: 0 4 1 5 5 0 1 5 2 4 5 0 = 32 runs in 74 ip = 3.89 ERA!!
The second dude has a better ERA but he's all over the board...no consistency!...only 4 GOOD outings vs 6 BAD!!!
BUT...first guy looks to be pretty damn consistent at keeping his earned runs to 2 or less!
By my count: 9 GOOD outings, 1 mediocre, and only 2 BAD (maybe one-offs??) This gives his team a much better chance to win DESPITE owning a higher ERA!
See what I mean about consistency? (ie, frequency of GOOD vs BAD)
Scoring the number of GOOD outings vs BAD is a very large part of my success!......but for some inexplicable reason, it is a tool which works extraordinarily well BEFORE the ASB, but flattens out or actually reverses every baseball season AFTER ASB
Frequency/consistency is a key to my evaluation of a starter
Example, comparing earned runs in 12 hypothetical starts
Guy #1: 7 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 7 2 2 = 34 runs in 72 ip = 4.25 ERA
Guy #2: 0 4 1 5 5 0 1 5 2 4 5 0 = 32 runs in 74 ip = 3.89 ERA!!
The second dude has a better ERA but he's all over the board...no consistency!...only 4 GOOD outings vs 6 BAD!!!
BUT...first guy looks to be pretty damn consistent at keeping his earned runs to 2 or less!
By my count: 9 GOOD outings, 1 mediocre, and only 2 BAD (maybe one-offs??) This gives his team a much better chance to win DESPITE owning a higher ERA!
See what I mean about consistency? (ie, frequency of GOOD vs BAD)
Scoring the number of GOOD outings vs BAD is a very large part of my success!......but for some inexplicable reason, it is a tool which works extraordinarily well BEFORE the ASB, but flattens out or actually reverses every baseball season AFTER ASB
@Aliosha
Thank you 6 - 1 so far with my post-ASB leans..... I did bet most (not all) of them but very small due to the proven fact that over the decades I rarely show profit in the second half of the MLB season, for some completely baffling reason 
....so the ASB is a great time to drastically reduce my bet size to a mere fraction....and therefore, sinceI am not going to risk a full unit on it myself (ie, real money where the mouth is!) then the forum observer should take that into consideration. My leans DO reflect my normal capping withwhich I had good success in the first half.....but that same capping style almost always tends toward a crap shoot in the second half 
.... This season I HAVE made a couple tweaks recently in an effort to change that dynamic, but it's way to early to know if this will hold over a large sample size so the confidence level is not high enough yet to recommend.
So my leans are for information purposes. Some may follow or pass as they wish. Who knows, my leans just may be profitable now that I have made some tweaks - BUT I WOULDN'T BANK ON IT....
@mandy1
Thank you!
BTW, your contact email address you sent long ago was carefully left in my PM box and saved there, thinking that Covers.com would surely not delete an important communication feature of this site...
But.......they did...
I don't have your email address now
DO NOT post your real personal email on this site! (maybe make one of those 24 hr temp emails so we can exchange email addys?)
@mandy1
Strongly prefer an email address please, then with that, I can get your number later no problem
Heavy Home Favs (HHF = -170+)
lost on the juice Wednesday going 2 - 1 ....
but one of the wins was by only one run,
so had we bet all 3 on the runline, a large 1 - 2 loss for the day!
Tuesday was even worse, 0 - 2 for big losses!
Monday was 1 - 0
Yankees and Mariners are HHF today....
Recommend caution (including RL) because HHF are a BIG loser on the season
Heavy Home Favs (HHF = -170+)
lost on the juice Wednesday going 2 - 1 ....
but one of the wins was by only one run,
so had we bet all 3 on the runline, a large 1 - 2 loss for the day!
Tuesday was even worse, 0 - 2 for big losses!
Monday was 1 - 0
Yankees and Mariners are HHF today....
Recommend caution (including RL) because HHF are a BIG loser on the season
HHF lost bigly Thursday with a 1 - 1 split, but..
the YANKEES loss was at -235 (closing ML) and while my MARINERS moneyline lean did win, it was only by a single run, so those of you who play HHF thinking the RL is a safer bet, would have lost!
Established in 1995,
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