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2-Game Chase system went 57-4 (+33 units) last year

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Posted: #1
I'm going to start tracking a 2-game chase system I used last year from late July to mid-September that went 57-4.

The system can be used by simply playing moneyline, but it would've been more profitable last year to play a portion of each bet on the runline (-1.5) as well.  I usually use about a 75%-25% split ML-RL. 

I will list eligible series and post my results beginning June 15.

For series beginning June 15:

BAL over phi (games 1 and 2)
PIT over chw (games 1 and 2) 
DET over chi (games 1 and 2) 
CHC over cle (games 1 and 2) 
STL over MIN (games 1 and 2) 


 
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Posted: #2
Just as a heads up, if you decide to play these, make sure you understand a 2-game chase.  You play your base amount on game 1 (let's say $100).  If the team wins, you stop.  If you lose game 1, you play game 2 to win whatever you lost in game 1, plus $100, so that if you win game 2, you are still ahead $100 for that series.

Best of luck.
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by fanatical_facts:

I'm going to start tracking a 2-game chase system I used last year from late July to mid-September that went 57-4.

The system can be used by simply playing moneyline, but it would've been more profitable last year to play a portion of each bet on the runline (-1.5) as well.  I usually use about a 75%-25% split ML-RL. 

I will list eligible series and post my results beginning June 15.

For series beginning June 15:

BAL over phi (games 1 and 2)
PIT over chw (games 1 and 2) 
DET over chi (games 1 and 2) 
CHC over cle (games 1 and 2) 
STL over MIN (games 1 and 2) 


interesting facts, so what are your 1st bet on your 5 post teams..
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by fanatical_facts:

I'm going to start tracking a 2-game chase system I used last year from late July to mid-September that went 57-4.

The system can be used by simply playing moneyline, but it would've been more profitable last year to play a portion of each bet on the runline (-1.5) as well.  I usually use about a 75%-25% split ML-RL. 

I will list eligible series and post my results beginning June 15.

For series beginning June 15:

BAL over phi (games 1 and 2)
PIT over chw (games 1 and 2) 
DET over chi (games 1 and 2) 
CHC over cle (games 1 and 2) 
STL over MIN (games 1 and 2) 


How do you determine which Series to play? And do you play 1st Game 75% ML and 25% RL on the favorites of each? If you win Game 1, do you still play Game 2, and how do you adjust the ML and RL depending on if you win/ lose the 1st. Also, what if the team that's favored in Game 1, is the Dog in Game 2? Do you then play RRL?

Sounds way to confusing and subjective based on objective information

HOWEVER, with a 57-4 record last year, it definitely piques my interest, and I would appreciate hearing more, including answers to the above questions

Please tell us more, and BOL with it

 
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Posted: #5
.....Sorry, I was watching something, and writing my reply and didn't see your 2nd Post b4 I sent mine off, but there are still a couple questions that weren't answered in that
 
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Posted: #6
turbojackhammer:

I'd bet to win $100 on each of those 5 teams I listed.  For example, BAL is -175 ML and +127 RL so my bet would be:

BAL -175.... $131.25 to win $75
BAL (-1.5) +127.... $19.69 to win $25

Total of $150.94 to win $100  
 
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Posted: #7
Hog Wild:

System is based on a wide set of criteria.  Each series must meet ALL of the criteria or it is not played.  In a 3 or 4 game series, only games 1 and 3 might be plays, meaning that if you lost game 1, you'd skip game 2, then play game 3.  

If I lost game 1, I'd probably still stick close to the 75-25 ML-RL ratio but sometimes balance it so that a 1-run win in the 2nd game would have me back at even for the series.
 
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Posted: #8
so how about the remaining, let me guess, please told me if im right, those capslock font will be your bet ??
 
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Posted: #9

Hey f_f, I tried sending you a P.M., but must accept friend request.

Are you going to Post these, as I would like to see more if you don't mind.

Thanks, and have a good day

 
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Posted: #10
I've actually been collecting chase stats for every teams 3 game series this season (I dont collect 2 or 4 game series). I missed probably 2 series for each team while I was away on vacation in mid may but all my statistics are in an excel file if anyone is interested. I manually enter these nightly so it's subject to small errors but it should be relatively accurate.
 
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Posted: #11
 
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Posted: #12
fanatical 

do you have any excels from last year? or are we just taking you at your word? very interested
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Newcompa:

Hey F Facts thanks for the chase system , will look for it.


STanThaCaddy - i would be interested in the excel file of yours. thx

It's a table of each team as the rows with the columns: FG ML, FG O, FG U, FG RL, F5 ML, F5 O, and F5 U. The table is composed of % of the time each team has hit atleast once in a 3 game series. I collect all the stats in Access and output the table to excel with conditional formatting so its easy to visualize. Now the one drawback is based on the limited amount of resources I have I'm getting the full game lines from a different site than the first five innnings site. Ive only managed to find one website with first 5 lines while the games are actually going on (unlike 5dimes where once it starts the line is taken off the board). So for example if the Pirates have hit the F5 Under 83% of the time, there might have been a case where the 5dimes line was 4.5 but the line on the website I use was 4. If the total runs scored in those 5 innings were 4, the under wouldn't have hit in my database but technically would have going by 5dimes lines. 
 
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Posted: #14
Now what if u lose every bet today ( not saying you will) but ur laying a lot of juice here... For example if Baltimore loses at -240 you going to put 340 on the next game
 
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Posted: #15
?? Which is at -180... So if both lose you down about 800
 
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Posted: #16
Forgot to mention that starting pitchers are one of the key criteria in selecting which games of a series to play. If there is a change in SP after I post picks I do not recommend playing that game. If you select "_____ must start for action" when you place your bet, the pick will be nullified if there's a pitching change. I'll start listing the pitchers I'm basing my picks on in future.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by B34cruz:

?? Which is at -180... So if both lose you
down about 800


That's a good point Cruz. A system loss (2 games both losers) can be equal to about 4-6 wins on average. By adding in the runline you can often save some money that way and protect yourself (see my example above). With my record of 57-4 last year, each loss was worth about 6 wins which is why I was only +33 units instead of +53.
 
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Posted: #18
Also as a rule I don't normally play games that are worse than -200 odds. I got Baltimore at -175 last night but I guess the line has moved?
 
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Posted: #19
I can send the excels from last year if ppl are interested
 
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Posted: #20
4-0 tonight with 3 wins by 2+ puts us at about +3.5 units. A nice start at least. The cle @ chc was rained out. Unless they reschedule the game for tomorrow (doubtful) we will lay off this one for now.

No plays for Tuesday. Will be back Wednesday with an update.
 
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Posted: #21
Yesterday: 4-0
Overall games: 4-0
System: 4-0
Bet Units: +3.49

CLE @ CHC rainout from last night was NOT rescheduled for today so there are NO PLAYS for Tuesday.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by fanatical_facts:

Yesterday: 4-0
Overall games: 4-0
System: 4-0
Bet Units: +3.49

CLE @ CHC rainout from last night was NOT rescheduled for today so there are NO PLAYS for Tuesday.

im confused...it was same starters as Monday night wasn't it? 
 
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Posted: #23
SYSTEMS....
 
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Posted: #24
Looking forward the your future plays.... GL!!!! I will starting playing starting with Wednesday's plays.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by markp851:


im confused...it was same starters as Monday night wasn't it? 

Not sure what you mean here?  "Starters" as in starting pitchers?  Or did you mean stats?  The post from Monday night and Tuesday morning were essentially the same information.  The Tuesday post was just in the format I plan to post my results, that's all.
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