All Forums | MLB Betting

2-Game Chase system went 57-4 (+33 units) last year

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 8662
Posts: 76
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #51
If it's helpful I can try to post my specific bet amounts so you can see how I'm splitting between moneyline and runline
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 54
Posted: #52
That would be great F_F.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 54
Posted: #53
I also appreciate you being honest F_F regarding your system. U don't find to many honest ppl on these boards.  
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #54
Monday Plays:

Only 1 series that begins on Monday fits our system.  The play is NYY over phi, and all 3 games fit.

However, looking at the lines right now, the Yanks are at -270 on moneyline which is pretty steep.  In regular season baseball, a bad team with a bad starting pitcher can beat a good team with a good staring pitcher on any given night, so I hate laying almost 3 to 1 to win any game.  I also don't know what the odds for games 2 and 3 will be, and losing 2 games at -200+ can really hammer our bankroll.

My gut tells me to stay away here, at least for game 1.  I'll keep an eye on this line and if it moves closer to -200 (maybe -220 or -230), I'd consider it.  Otherwise, games 2 and 3 may provide us with a play, depending on the odds.

Another option, if you choose, would be to play NYY (-1.5) -119 for tomorrow's game.  Just playing the runline keeps the bet amount reasonable, but of course, a 1-run win really means a loss.

For now, I will officially say that there are NO PLAYS for Monday, but if the line moves, I may modify that.  Otherwise, stay tuned for an update regarding Tuesday's new series.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 12902
Posted: #55

Hey F_F. Still very intrigued and have sent a friend request to get your excel spreadsheets.

What about playing the -1 RL, then your 1 run win is a push instead of a loss?? Most Books offer it, but if they don't, I can send you a excel formula to create your own -1 Line combining the ML and +1.5 RL's.

Good luck tomorrow. I'm interested to see how this plays out, but I agree that -275 is way to much juice. Especially the way the Phillies handled the Cards yesterday (today)

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Hog_Wild:

Hey F_F. Still very intrigued and have sent a friend request to get your excel spreadsheets.

What about playing the -1 RL, then your 1 run win is a push instead of a loss?? Most Books offer it, but if they don't, I can send you a excel formula to create your own -1 Line combining the ML and +1.5 RL's.

Good luck tomorrow. I'm interested to see how this plays out, but I agree that -275 is way to much juice. Especially the way the Phillies handled the Cards yesterday (today)


That's a great idea.  I never use the -1 RL and I should.  Even that is at -208 for tomorrow so I'll sit tight for now and see what the line does, but that's a great option.  Thanks!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #57
TUESDAY PLAYS:

For series beginning Tuesday:

PIT over cin (all 3 games fit)

Tues. - Smith vs LOCKE
Wed. - Leake vs COLE
Thur. - DeSclafani vs BURNETT

ARI over col (all 3 games fit)

Tues. - ANDERSON vs Kendrick
Wed. - WEBSTER vs Hale
Thur. - R. DE LA ROSA vs J. De La Rosa


I played:

ARI ml -120.....  $66 to win $55
ARI (-1.5) +138.....  $14.49 to win $20
Total risk of $$80.49 to win $75

I'm still waiting to see the line on CIN @ PIT.  Because of a pitching change (Smith in for Cueto), many books haven't put out a line yet.

As for the PHI @ NYY series:

Glad I left that one alone as the Yanks lost Game 1 tonight.  I would've said that games 2 and 3 could be plays, but now a pitching change in Game 3 has bounced that one outside of the system criteria.  For now, we'll roll with PIT and ARI only.

Back tomorrow with an update.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 48
Posted: #58
thanks for posting! I'll be tailing
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #59
Pit ml -135.... $74.25 to win $55
Pit (-1.5) +160.... $12.50 to win $20
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #60
Total Pit.... $86.75 to win $75
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 839
Posted: #61
Gl
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 54
Posted: #62
Need a big day F_F!!!!! I played the Philly's yesterday cause i saw they had 12 str8 rd loses. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 634
Posted: #63
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2013
Posts: 74
Posted: #64
fanatical i see you've made your series picks (I think) but do you also suggest taking the Pirates and Dbacks to win their respective games tonight as well, or are your bets for the series as a whole?

Sorry if that's a dumb question.

BOL!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 864
Posted: #65
on ARI as well, don't have good luck with Pirates but i may still join you
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #66
One added play for Tueaday:

NYY over phi

NYY (-1) -178.... $133.50 to win $75

It will be like the 2nd game of a 2-game chase only we aren't trying to recover any losses from game 1
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 864
Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by fanatical_facts:

One added play for Tueaday:

NYY over phi
 


just a suggestion, i would avoid using the word "over" unless you are referring to an Over/Under play. might confuse some people
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by BeeThousand:

fanatical i see you've made your series picks (I think) but do you also suggest taking the Pirates and Dbacks to win their respective games tonight as well, or are your bets for the series as a whole?Sorry if that's a dumb question.BOL!


not a dumb question but actually those picks are for tonight's games only. This is a 2-game chase system meaning if we lose the 1st game we double up for the 2nd game. See earlier posts for more info.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2015
Posts: 18
Posted: #69
thx for last nite & the same for 2nite
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #70
WEDNESDAY PLAYS:

Game 2 (doubled up to recover tues loss and win 1 unit total for 2 games)

ARI +120.... $96.24 to win $115.49
ARI (-1.5).... $21.16 to win $40
Total.... $117.40 to win $155.49

Game 1 (new 2-game chase)

PIT -178.... $80.10 to win $45
PIT (-1.5) +128.... $23.44 to win $30
Total.... $103.54 to win $75

Hard luck with the yanks game yesterday. Who figures they'd lose 2 straight at home to the Phillies? We will NOT chase yesterday's Yankees loss with a play today. Today's game does not fit the system.

Good luck tonight. A d-backs win puts us right back on track.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by W0LF:

Quote Originally Posted by fanatical_facts:

One added play for Tueaday:NYY over phi 
just a suggestion, i would avoid using the word "over" unless you are referring to an Over/Under play. might confuse some people


That's actually a great point wolf. I'll stop using that. Thx for the feedback.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #72
Today: 1-1
Overall games: 7-6
System: 7-2
Bet Units: -0.6889

Well, we got the important one tonight, I suppose.  Arizona had a pretty thrilling comeback in the 9th to beat the Rockies by 1 run.  Unfortunately, if you're playing like me and splitting with runline, that 1-run win resulted in only a very small overall gain.  
Even still, a Pirates win tomorrow and we'll be back on the plus side of the ledger.

We will be doubling up on Pit tomorrow.  There are also two new series beginning, so I'll let you know soon if either of them will be plays.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #73
THURSDAY PLAYS:

(Doubled up on PIT to recover Wed. loss and gain 1 unit total)

PIT -155....   $217 to win $140
PIT (-1.5) +147....    $26.22 to win $38.54

CHW @ DET is also a play (all 4 games)

DET -130.... $65 to win $50
DET (-1.5) +150....  $16.67 to win $25


Good luck! 


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 48
Posted: #74
thanks for posting! So for the Detroit series when you say all 4 games fit, if Game 1 wins (betting $100), we bet Game 2 (betting $100 again but no double down cuz Game 1 won)? Then if Game 2 also wins we bet $100 again on Game 3? then if Game 3 loses we double down on Game 4 ($200)? 
I know it sounds confusing but thanks for the clarification. Good win by Arizona yesterday btw!
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 79
Posted: #75
Piece,

Yes youve got it. After a win, we start a new 2-game chase at our base bet amount. After a loss, we want to use the next eligible game to "chase" the first loss and make sure we finish that 2-game set ahead by 1 unit. This gets a little bit messy when splitting bets between the ML and RL as a 1-run win in either game means we win less that 1 unit. But thats not a bad trade off because it protects us in the event of 2 straight losses, significantly lessening the blow in terms of bet units lost.

The one thing about your breakdown that I might disagree with is that after 2 wins within a series, I usually stop. So if I won games 1 and 2 (up 2 units) I wouldn't touch games 3 or 4. However, all 4 games are available if needed, for example: lose gm 1, win gm 2, lose gm 3. Then we'd need game 4 to chase the gm 3 loss.

It's a personal choice to stop after 2 wins, I just don't like expecting a team to win 3 out of 4. That's a lot to ask for.
All Forums | MLB Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.