2014 Major League Super System with write up

To my followers

I have continued backtesting and if you are going to use my system you will need to make one final adjustment. Ignore every single thing I said about team rankings. The only rankings that matter are a teams record as a dog. Our rankings well be the dog rankings from one to thirty. We can be 75% sure after 12 game that a team performs well as a dog or they dontAfterr a sample 44 games 90% sure. That will be around the all star break for most teams. After a team has played 12 games as a dog they will be ranked by our system according to their performance. By the all star break we will not be betting many teams even as dogs.

Im still waiting for my math guru to give me backtesting results back to 2006 season. I decided to do some backtesting of my own and went back to 2011 season. I can see why it is taking so long. I began with opening day and used 100 as a min and 3200 as a max bet to make the calculations easier. I was able to play 6 matches through June 19, 2011. Playing all the teams you would be up $17,295.00. You would also have a fairy good sample size of who has a good record as a dog and who does not. Oddly enough some of the worst win percentages were from good teams The Plillies that year were really good and rarely a dog but when they were their win percentage was .250 which I found shocking. The sample size was small 2 wins in  8 games so I probably wouldn't quit playing them until I had a larger sample size. The Oakland A's had a .30 win percentage with a larger sample 5wins 17 tries. The cubs were .29 win percentage 6 out of 21. I think at that point if it occurs in the real games I would eliminate any team with a win percentage under .30, which we will call our Gippy Mendoza line, if the sample size is over 12 games. As I go forward in my 2011 back testing I would eliminate Oakland and the Cubs and closely monitor the Phillies. there were several teams just above .30 around .333 and they would be closely watched as the sample size grew. Remember at 44 games I will be 90% sure of whether I keep betting them or not.

The best team was Boston at 100% 6/6 but were rarely a dog. The nest best was Toronto at .857. Most of the teams fall between .333 and .6 which is good enough to be profitable. If I can finish my backtest before opening day I wll let you know the final results I only expect the profits to go higher.

Good luck

Dan

I don't know why you keep posting. Your comments are distorted, wrong and just plain irrelevant. . Like I said I wasn't betting real money in preseason  Maybe I missed a game so what. The principal is the same. they won game 4, so its money. What s your problem? I will post each match this year as it ends and you can poke holes in it if you think you can. Ive done enough backtesting to know I'm on to something. If you want to keep losing money its your business. Go do some backtesting prove me wrong and then come post with facts  otherwise be negative elsewhere. Send me your email and ill send my preseason spreadsheet. Maybe they weren't  a dog for me and they were for you. It was an experiment like I  said and as always it was a winner anyway which you couldn't deny with facts if you tried.

I will also periodically post a running total of dog rankings the benefit of those who want to make money. I didn't come on here to deceive anyone. In will not respond to you again.

Also will post results back to 2006 when math guru is done. I slowed him down by making go back and plot all games for each team as a dog whether they were in play or not.

Last minute tweaking. I was able to complete my backtesting through the all star break of 2011 season. I will report all raw data when backtesting is completed back  through 2006 season. I will reserve the right to call a match early if there are only a 2 or three teams left and the match is profitable. I played through the all star break in 2011. Match 7 was odd. There were 3 teams left Detroit with one loss,Milwaukee, with one loss and KC with 3. Match 8 was up and running and in the black. There was a little over a week til allstar break. Detroit won its next game but Kc (bad team lost next three as dogs) and Milwaukee who was a good team and rarely a dog lost 5 straight the last one right after the break. Disaster! was this an anamoly? Hard to say, but for sure we have to watch for streaky teams in our tracking. Milwaukee and Philly were good that year but bad playing as a dog. In that situation I could have just called the match early and been super profitable starting with second half and lots of data to pour over. Once we have tracked 44 games for a team we will know with the 90% accuracy how they play as a dog and will bet accordingly. After 12 games we will know a lot. its the same math that allows polling to predict elections with a 3-4% margin of error when they only poll 150 people. It just works out that way.

we will stasrt playing all teams, and track all the teams results when they play as dogs. We will eliminate some teams after they play 44 games as a dog but continue monitoring all. We will dramatically increase bet size after all star break

PLAY BALL AND GOOD LUCK!