2021 HOT STOVE

@JEG53

"now you 2 girls are ganging up against me, I am starting to think you guys were involved in getting LC kicked to the curb because he liked me more."

I am not a psychologist, and have never played one on TV, but I suspect a dose of paranoia in that comment. Might be best to leave Puff's cave for a week or so, then check in at a local mental health facility. Although it is not Christmas season they may even welcome you with a candy cane.

Not yet

The Nats sign Jeremy Jeffress. He had a great year with the Cubs to my surprise.

@undermysac

 RSW totals up on bookmaker now

@BIGDTITLE

 Just a quick look - Marlins total posted at 70.5 in MLB's toughest division (per totals projections)

They are also rated the best of the (projected) six bottom feeders in each division. Pitt 59.5 in MLB's worst division. Col 64.5, Bal 64.5, Det 68.5, Tex 66.5

The above from Vegas insider

Pitt - OVER 58.5

Yes, they are despicably bad, but that whole division is, a AAA team could win 59 playing in/out of THAT division

@JEG53

Good news for YOUR Giants, Puff. they have signed Scott Kazmir to a minor league deal. Comeback player of the year?

LAD too low for me to take the under and SD too high to take the OVER - damn these oddsmakers are good. Still tempted by LAD UN.

Tigers over intrigues me as well 

@barneybeans

 An 8 game spread and LAD is too low, while SAD is too high? That does not show a lot of faith in the Padres compared to how you were touting them last week. 

@KeyElement

 Kazmir is now a Giant, that was all we needed to round out our team, I am going to have to decide when to fund some book since all you Giants hater are going to drive that number down from 75 and then I will hit that, YEH BABY!! So you keep making fun of Calif. there DonKey and I realize you been in that heat in Vegas and now Arizhotshitona and at the amount of years your understanding of the things you read you now fail to understand things anymore. I want you to know and the Guys here will back me up on this, anything you need us to explain to you all you have to do is ASK WE ARE HERE FOR YOU.                    

Cleveland Over has my eye 

@JEG53

"So you keep making fun of Calif. there"

You can go ahead and spell out Califruity JEG, everyone knows the status of YOUR state, just not your mind; that is where our concerns lie.

"I realize you been in that heat in Vegas and now Arizhotshitona"

Now that one is pretty original, and I was sure your Neanderthal mind hadn't had an original thought in at least 10,000 years. Were you out boar hunting or gathering berries when you realized you had a severe headache from an unnatural mental event? Back in the 18th century the French invented the ultimate cure for a headache, Madam La Guillotine. I don't know if they still make them but if you can't stand the headache from an original thought you might investigate that.  

<-- best current substitute for a guy upchucking. 

Is this because they signed Julio Tehran?

There are 2,430 possible wins in an mlb season. Anyone want to add these up and see how much over 2430 it is? It always is.

Might as well tear up your Padres future ticket!! Get a hold of yourself man

The oddmakers adjusted really well to SDs acquisitions. My original post says I am tempted by LAD under and will probably take that.

I just thought defending champs, hitting great, super pitching rotation, more or less same players, no Joc, etc... Somehow I thought we'd see 106-108. They were .717 last year, short season, I know, but applying that to 161 games is 115.5, applying my adjustment for LAD of * .94 = 108.1  (6 games off the current line of 102.5).

The .94 for the Dodgers is my calculated multiplier for them:

(last year team avg * 161) * 94%  (94% slides lower and higher depending on a.)  last year's team avg + b.) adj for off season acquisition c.) +/- power ranking. d.) division strength up or down, e.) throw in interleague as well).

Same type math for SD 93.3 games (multiplier is the same actually) is what I come up with. Current line is 94.  (less than a game off)

For me to take a season total it's gotta be off by about +/- 8 games minimum.

Do I think LAD will really win the 108.1 games I calculated? No. That calc is to determine the line, not the actual projection. For the actual Win projection (using a different calc) I have 97 games for LAD

Why? because I am considering some intangibles into that multiplier because I think they have some injuries, Kershaw may not stay healthy all season and some juiced ball late inning pen meltdowns. Plus everyone is gunning for the defending champ.

Hope this makes sense.

I think LAD wins 97 games

SD wins 101 games.

How many times for example do you think that a Packers line should be put out at -7.5 in order to split money, what the public perception is of both teams, recent game played bias, etc.... but you have GB calculated to score 31 and the opponent to only score 20. Does that mean the line should be 11?

If the line comes out @ 7.5 you take GB, if it comes out @ -9 you might lay off or lower your bet size.

I know we have talked about this before but there are always two lines IMHO, the Vegas split the money line and the real handicapped line - those two lines are seldom exactly on track with each other from a point spread, under/over perspective.

That's all I'm sayin'

@barneybeans

 Makes sense in that regard

First, a Casa Key update. After scouring every possible connection for two months my sweet wife FINALLY got us booked for vaccinations. TOMORROW we get dose one and March 18th dose 2. Prospects for my being around for another MLB season just went up. I think JEG bet the under on my survivability probability so he better hope I catch and go quickly. Up yours, Puff. 

Now, regarding the season win totals. I can see Barney's point, since we all have some sort of model in which we have have faith. I have mine, he has his, you have yours. All well and good so I will make a separate point everyone should consider. 

I lean toward the unders, and for several very good reasons. 1) If you start with the under you start with a winner; someone has to take it away from you. 2) Injures do not scare the s--t out of you. Remember, when you picked an over you had faith in that teams regular lineup, especially the starting pitching. How does a guy feel if he takes the over on the Dodgers and Buehler, Kershaw and Betts go down to injury for a couple months or, God forbid, the season? That's right, SCREWED. I don't wish anyone anything bad, but if you bet the under injuries are not a great concern, nor is an off season by a star pitcher or hitter. Everything that negatively affects the team works in your favor, and since they assembled the best team they could afford in the first place, there is very little chance an injury improves their probability. FFT.

Barney says he likes a projected margin of +/- 8 to pick a season win total. I agree with that, but have highlighted my projections that are +/- 5.5 or more. AT THIS POINT, I have six probable unders and 7 probable overs highlighted. I will wait another three to four weeks and finalize. I want to let S.T. give me some feedback and also watch line movement and the final wheeling and dealing before finalizing.

I am also almost sure I am going to have two long shot World Series winners that I will go to Vegas to bet because there is no way I would trust one of my locals any offshore to pay off the enormous winnings. 

This is February, It is all still speculation. Don't laugh at anyone's ideas YET. I don't know how many teams in history have gone from worst to first in one season but I do know the Twins have done it TWICE. They had a great organization and great roster but two years were littered with injuries and two were super healthy. Who knows what will happen? 

One wager I definitely will not make is the Pirates under. As bad as they are the rest of the division sucks as well and they could win 60 games by default. 

JMHO, BOL 

Although only 7 miles east of us the pharmacy is in PINAL County. So, once again, Maricovid County let's us down.

@KeyElement