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Bodio's MLB Thur 09/01

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Posted: #101

great jobs Bodio thanks again !!!

A's made mine 3 team par lay

 
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Posted: #102
 
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Posted: #103
Genius!  Rolled with you today, didn't roll with you yesterday on the S.F. Midgets play.  Another great call!  Went 9-2 yesterday, again small wagers and I know I bet way to many games yesterday, not my typical mode of operation but it worked out for me.  Congrats again, plug your nose, you're the shit! 
 
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Posted: #104
Killing it this week man!... BOD THE BEST!... One Question: Do you post, or will post your plays or insights for NFL like you do for MLB?

Thanks Man!, BOL Tomorrow too!
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Vikings are an interesting team.  Not many people expect them to do anything this year but they still have the best RB in football, a pretty solid defensive line, and a QB in McNabb who is itching to prove doubters wrong.  They could easily start out their season at 5-3 or at least 4-4. And their games in the 2nd half of the season against DEN, OAK (both at home), @ Washington and against the Bears (at home) are very winnable.  Definitely like the OVER 7 here.  At 7.5 it's most likely a pass though.  

Thats gonna be tough going 2-4 or 1-5 in the division and playing the NFC South.  Throw in Chargers and Chiefs and good luck sweetheart on that one!

Love the under 9.5 on Chi-town though.  Its gonna a tough division this year and every win will be a fight and will mean something.

 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by berghawk:

Agree, but what worries me is having Recker behind the plate.  He is an automatic out and I think the Indians will try and succeed to steal on him.  Not sure how much faith the A's pitchers will have in him calling a game considering he was the one behind the plate for his debut in that wreck last week against the Yankees.  Recker is NOT a MLB caliber catcher and its another reason I like the over here.


2 hits, a walk, and 2 runs..I think Recker wasn't as an 'automatic out' as you expected.  I don't know anything him but he looked pretty good to me.

 
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Posted: #107
Great job 
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by DJM5226:

Any lean on Pirates/Dodgers?  Didn't see a writeup.  Did I miss it?  Good luck tonight!



Los Angeles Dodgers 63-70 (47%) @ Pittsburgh Pirates 62-72 (46%)

First start for Eveland.

B. Lincoln, starting for Pittsburgh Pirates, has a FIP of 3.57 (#56 in MLB), xFIP of 3.94 (#94 in MLB), and tERA of 3.09 (#12 in MLB), with a BABIP of .211, LOB% of 84%, and E-F of -1.57. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.8, with a WHIP of 1, and opponent BA of .194. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 58%, FB%: 25% for a 2.32 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

Los Angeles Dodgers have the #10 bullpen, #23 offense, and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a road record of 29-35 (45%), ranked #19 in MLB and have Won 1 in a row.

Pittsburgh Pirates have the #19 bullpen, #26 offense, and are rated #14 in fielding. They have a home record of 31-37 (46%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.



Odds: LAD +115 (47%) PIT -122 (55%) O/U = 8.5

Lean: none
=======================================

 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

I don't mean to clog up Bro-Bodio's thread but I know thousands read this site daily (and for good reason) so I thought I'd ask this again here.

Posted by DDH420
less than 1 minute ago

I have enjoyed reading that "what bettors need to know" article for the preseason football since it has some decent stats and some insights into teams strategies but I don't see it today. Anyone have any angles they are working regarding how long starters will be going,injuries,weather and so on ??? Also a good website where I can fins this stuff myself would be much appreciated. Thanx

You can probably read local newspapers on-line to find some important info to that regard
 
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Posted: #110
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by RedFlagCapper:



I know you probably won't reveal your secrets but what does your model entail to get those team totals?  Is it like a weighted system or taking averages, etc.?

Lots and lots of advanced stats.  It's way too complicated to explain
 
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Posted: #112
thanks bodio. i will be eagerly looking forward to reading your nfl stuff. thanks for another winner as usual. rolling with syracuse in cfb today. any potential plays or games that catch your eye for the weekend in cfb? wish i had gotten the bears at 9.5 but definitely agree that most of the value is gone from these wagers. was able to grab the bengals at under 6.5 before it moved another full game tho 
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:


Exactly! Too many guys looking for emotional angles in baseball. Don't want to get swept, etc. It doesn't matter how bad you don't want to get swept - if you have to hit against Verlander or Lee it's you rskill not your desire that is going to get it done. Other sports you can out-hustle and out-work and out-heart the other team. Not so much in baseball.

BOOM!  That's hitting the nail on the head!
Way too many people use 'motivational' angles to handicap baseball and that's just wrong.  This is one reason why I love baseball so much compared to other sports -- you can take the motivational angles out of the equations and focus on statistically driven data.  Excellent point Barnstorm!
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by mries:

New season high!  Keep rolling, great work bodio.  Been following you, and appreciate the help.  Hope one day to construct the kind of spreadsheet/system you have.  Good luck.

yes it is.  New season high.  All I have to say is:  
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by coldcap:

bodio where do you check line movements? or which book maybe? lines are all gonna be different. so where's the best place to check the lines from opening to current. everybody's welcome to help. thanks

Pinny...when you look at my breakdowns those are Pinny's early lines from the night before 
 
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Posted: #116

Simply Amazing Bodio! Thank you for always sharing your insight. You are a gentleman and a scholar!

Great week so far!

 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by MAGO304:

Thanks Bodio! You rock bro! BTW are you playing any college fb today?

nope 
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by CityHunter:

Killing it this week man!... BOD THE BEST!... One Question: Do you post, or will post your plays or insights for NFL like you do for MLB?

Thanks Man!, BOL Tomorrow too!

NFL is my favorite sport.  I will definitely be handicapping it! 
 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Thats gonna be tough going 2-4 or 1-5 in the division and playing the NFC South.  Throw in Chargers and Chiefs and good luck sweetheart on that one!

Love the under 9.5 on Chi-town though.  Its gonna a tough division this year and every win will be a fight and will mean something.


Chiefs won't be that good IMO.  That passing O looks atrocious without Weis.  Vikes should at least be 2-4 in the division and have games against OAK, DEN, CAR, ARZ, WAS, TAM, and KC.  They should be at least 4-3 against these squads.  Throw in a win or 2 against the 'elite' teams they'll face, and I see an 8-8 season for the Vikes.  We shall see
 
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Posted: #120
I'm not here to hate but if I get blasted so be it but it has to be said. To be honest, there is nothing special about these picks.  He is just capitalizing on things you yourself cannot see and control yourselves.  If you all could do this, you could be another "bodio"

1) He is disciplined. One play out of 10+ games in a day. No chasing.  He picks his spots and spots with minimal risk. You all chase, that's why you lose.

2) The stats are great but I mean it's nothing that is not available to everyone else.  He is able to organize these stats to tell himself meaningful plays.  You all don't and just pick plays based on assumptions.  Name of the game is organization and how you organize your own thoughts.

If you can look at yourself and honestly say you do these two things day and day out to the best that you can, nothing different between yourself and bodio.

Just my two cents. Take it or leave it, Let the bashing begin.  I really don't care.
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
173 - 136 @ 56% for +20.61 Units




Thur 09/01

#1: Oakland Athletics +101 



1-0 on the day and a new season high in profits this MLB season.  Since I'm not playing anything else today, it's time to handicap tomorrow's MLB games. 

Back at it tomorrow....(or maybe even later today)
Good luck fellas! 
 
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Posted: #122
 
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Posted: #123
thank for your winning picks....what you think of wagering on CFL at the beginning of the season bodio

 
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Posted: #124
bodio u doing ncaaf ?? 
 
 
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Posted: #125
CFL is good to wager on you know why?  I'll tell you the reason.

1) There is only 4 games a week. Even if you wanted to chase, you almost can't.

2) Easy to organize picks and thoughts since there is only 4 games in a week.

Basically the CFL reaffirms betting fundamentals and you all get away from in baseball and other sports with too many betting options.  Now tell me I am wrong.
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