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Bodio's MLB Thur 09/01

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Posted: #76

So this is it for the day? If so I am done too. I'll just sit back and enjoy some really bad football tonight! Maybe one CFB play...

 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by mrweed13:

Bodio a question for you - thanks in advance for the thoughts...
the Red Sox team total is 5 tonight, I'm seeing -120 juice. Having a hard time not loving this. Any thoughts on it? 

The Sox team hits .267 against A.J., but that's largely skewed by bad numbers from Drew and Varitek and pedestrian numbers from Youkilis. All are out tonight. Ellsbury is hitting .345, Pedroia .303, Ortiz .268 with 4 HR in 43 AB, etc.

I think 4 runs in 6 innings from Burnett would be a success for him, and I'd still like 5 at that point given the likelihood Lester is still winning with that run support and the Sox dodge Rivera in the Yankees pen.    

The team .267 BA is irrelevant.  Not enough AB's to use that information.  Burnett is playing for his spot in the rotation so he should be extra motivated today, for whatever that's worth.  I know he got rocked by Boston once already this year but he got rocked once last year as well.  He was pretty decent in his other 2 starts against the Red Sox in 2010.  You'll need 6 runs to win this one but remember that New York's BP is top notch.  If Red Sox have 4 runs through 6, it might be tough for them to get another one facing Soriano, Robertson, and Rivera.  I'm just playing 'devil's advocate' but at 5 it seems like a 50/50 type of a bet.

I have this one at 4.8 Boston to 4.3 Yankees, so the O/U of 5 on Boston is pretty accurate.  With having to lay juice on the OVER there, I don't see much 'value', unless there's something that tells you that Burnett will perform well below his average outing.  (Yes, he has been getting rocked and is coming off a high-pitch game.  But then again i'ts NOT August anymore  )  Good luck
 
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Posted: #78
I don't mean to clog up Bro-Bodio's thread but I know thousands read this site daily (and for good reason) so I thought I'd ask this again here.

Posted by DDH420
less than 1 minute ago

I have enjoyed reading that "what bettors need to know" article for the preseason football since it has some decent stats and some insights into teams strategies but I don't see it today. Anyone have any angles they are working regarding how long starters will be going,injuries,weather and so on ??? Also a good website where I can fins this stuff myself would be much appreciated. Thanx
 
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Posted: #79
Any lean on Pirates/Dodgers?  Didn't see a writeup.  Did I miss it?  Good luck tonight!
 
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Posted: #80
GL
 
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Posted: #81
You are the man. Thanks for the winners !!
 
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Posted: #82

Great selection again OAK, TOR

 

 

 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


The team .267 BA is irrelevant.  Not enough AB's to use that information.  Burnett is playing for his spot in the rotation so he should be extra motivated today, for whatever that's worth.  I know he got rocked by Boston once already this year but he got rocked once last year as well.  He was pretty decent in his other 2 starts against the Red Sox in 2010.  You'll need 6 runs to win this one but remember that New York's BP is top notch.  If Red Sox have 4 runs through 6, it might be tough for them to get another one facing Soriano, Robertson, and Rivera.  I'm just playing 'devil's advocate' but at 5 it seems like a 50/50 type of a bet.

I have this one at 4.8 Boston to 4.3 Yankees, so the O/U of 5 on Boston is pretty accurate.  With having to lay juice on the OVER there, I don't see much 'value', unless there's something that tells you that Burnett will perform well below his average outing.  (Yes, he has been getting rocked and is coming off a high-pitch game.  But then again i'ts NOT August anymore  )  Good luck


I know you probably won't reveal your secrets but what does your model entail to get those team totals?  Is it like a weighted system or taking averages, etc.?
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by mance:


Yeah. i know, they always can score 15 runs, but AJ is so bad that i can't resist, and honnestly this series should be a sweep for Sox, C.C. was lucky to escape with a win, 13 hits, 32 LOB...c'mon, 
I bet yesterday on Beckett vs Hughes, and for sure i will bet on Lester vs Burnett, 
Yanks hit lefties this year, but i don't care, it's AJ on mound, if Twins and O's offense can score 7 & 6 runs in first 1, 1/3 inning of game i hope that Sox score 20 runs and send this bum to pitch in Canada
I love Yanks, and rarely bet aganst them, but Boston is just way better in this pitching matchup, and evidently they have Yanks number this year



sure, the starting pitching matchup favors Boston but it's still the Yankees we're talking about.  Lester hasn't been that great this year either.

At -200 odds, you're basically saying that Boston will win this game 67% of the time while New York will win only 33%.  Do you really think those %-ages are accurate? I don't think so.  Boston is way over-valued here and I'd be careful betting a lot of $$ on them.  

Good luck either way
 
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Posted: #85
great forecast today well done mate
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by shadyejr:

Bodio,

How are payouts for 5dimes. Thinking of signing up. Only problem is im in the US and getting money on there could provide a hassle.

Payouts have been very large lately.  :)
You can wire the $$ to them 
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

I was liking the Broncos O 5.5 but it was -140 last week so I laid off,now I see someone else may have been on the same wavelength because it's now at -160 which I hate laying S.U for almost any bet.

I would expect them even with a tough home sked to get at least 4 wins at home which would only require to road victories. Any insight on this would be greatly expected.

Also are you making any pseudo/paper plays in CFB for tracking purposes or just gaining info for models.

Thanx Boss-Dio

I definitely like Broncos over 5.5...this team will be better this year especially on D and in running the ball.  First 3 games of the season are fairly easy so as long as they get off to a good start this will be a solid wager
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by YACKER:

So this is it for the day? If so I am done too. I'll just sit back and enjoy some really bad football tonight! Maybe one CFB play...


Yes...this is it for today.
Hopefully the A's hold on to this lead
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


That's the beauty of baseball...there's really no 'motivational' angles.  It's mono-a-mono with a hitter's skill going up against a pitcher's skill in each individual at-bat. 

good luck

Exactly! Too many guys looking for emotional angles in baseball. Don't want to get swept, etc. It doesn't matter how bad you don't want to get swept - if you have to hit against Verlander or Lee it's you rskill not your desire that is going to get it done. Other sports you can out-hustle and out-work and out-heart the other team. Not so much in baseball.
 
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Posted: #90
Bodio, THANKS for sharing  

A's
 
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Posted: #91
Bodioooooo aka The Apostle!!!!! Booook it!!!
 
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Posted: #92
+ 800  thank you bodiomojo 
 
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Posted: #93
I've been lurking for a while now and I have to say you are real good at capping. Informative with simple explanations and classy enough to share. Thanks Bodio your efforts are very much appreciated
 
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Posted: #94
New season high!  Keep rolling, great work bodio.  Been following you, and appreciate the help.  Hope one day to construct the kind of spreadsheet/system you have.  Good luck.
 
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Posted: #95
long live the King Bodio
 
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Posted: #96

Nice call B!

Keep them coming brother..

 
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Posted: #97
bodio where do you check line movements? or which book maybe? lines are all gonna be different. so where's the best place to check the lines from opening to current. everybody's welcome to help. thanks
 
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Posted: #98
 GREAT WIN..MISSED IT TODAY THOUGH..BEST OF LUCK FRI..GREAT WORK..THANKS FOR SHARING  
 
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Posted: #99
My hats off to you
 
 
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Posted: #100
Thanks Bodio! You rock bro! BTW are you playing any college fb today?
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