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Bodio's MLB Thur 09/01

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Posted: #126
Great job ..........................
 
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Posted: #127

Quote Originally Posted by FollowMeHere:

I'm not here to hate but if I get blasted so be it but it has to be said. To be honest, there is nothing special about these picks.  He is just capitalizing on things you yourself cannot see and control yourselves.  If you all could do this, you could be another "bodio"

1) He is disciplined. One play out of 10+ games in a day. No chasing.  He picks his spots and spots with minimal risk. You all chase, that's why you lose.

2) The stats are great but I mean it's nothing that is not available to everyone else.  He is able to organize these stats to tell himself meaningful plays.  You all don't and just pick plays based on assumptions.  Name of the game is organization and how you organize your own thoughts.

If you can look at yourself and honestly say you do these two things day and day out to the best that you can, nothing different between yourself and bodio.

Just my two cents. Take it or leave it, Let the bashing begin.  I really don't care.

 

so then why not just thank bodio for DOING this  groundwork which you say anybody can do!..... and making everyone  some cash!!!...if everyone can do it why dont you do it...at least thank the guy for making you some cash!...i actually don understand the reason you even post crap like this....but i know one thing....and that is that you obviously  go to his site everyday and if you use his information ...you are making money off of bodio...so like i say, the least you can do is thank the guy!

your last comment in your post is "i really dont care".....then why do you you even post to this thread, if you dont care....just to start some bashing??/....answer that question! 

 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by ptl647:

thank for your winning picks....what you think of wagering on CFL at the beginning of the season bodio


I'm assuming you mean College Football (I don't do Canadian Football League as that's DDH's expertise)

Unlike NFL, there's a lot more turnover and changes in college football year over year.  At the same time, you have freshmen coming in, different coaching philosophies, and now league realignments.  Just a ton of factors.  There are people that keep up with all of this in the off-season and truly enjoy it.  Those are the ones that are successful betting college-football early.  I on the other hand,  put most of my focus on professional sports:  NFL, NBA, MLB.  Just like college basketball, I like to wait a couple of weeks, until each team has a couple of games 'under their belts'.  Then I could utilize some stats, observations, and motivational angles.  I know a lot of people love betting college football but with so many teams in Division 1 it's really hard to keep up.  Pick a conference or 2 and focus on those for the most part:  mine are SEC and Big-10...I also pay attention to Pac-10 (Pac-12 now..) but not as much.  Pay attention the first couple of weeks, watch the games, and do so research for your conferences.  It's a marathon not a race -- that's my approach to college sports.  

I might actually have a play on Saturday but for the most part the first couple of weeks I lay low and in general my strategy is to be very selective in college football.  Good luck!
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by buntyketti:

bodio u doing ncaaf ?? 

yes...not today though
 
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Posted: #130
It's the fucking Catalina Wine Mixer!! Great job Bodio
 
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Posted: #131
Well thats two days in a row I was on the other side of you in the morning and well yeah.....At least last I finished up overall the past few days which is all that really matters I guess. Congrats buddy another no doubter too and both shutouts no less. I hate losing but I gotta give where they're deserved. Stay hot man this is really getting fun to watch.

 Also thanx for the reply on the DEN O 5.5 -160. I thought that may be a little pricey but if you give it the nod I'll lock it in. I may wait though for O 6 at even money and the push though as I don't see the vig moving up much more before the total does.

And thanx for the heads up on the local papers. I'm seeing if Brady starts for even a few drives since the 1st Q especially or even FH may be worth a look. I'm pretty sure with the two injuries to corners NYG will have what was 3 weeks ago their nickle corner in as their number one tonight and to start the season. Even in a vanilla scheme Uncle Tom should be able to exploit that for a TD. Other than that maybe DEN +3 and/or ML since they have the far better depth at QB. But thats it for week 4 preseason

Thanx for the help once again buddy
 
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Posted: #132
Lets say you had the winner this afternoon but you also like two games tonight.  Do you stop and take what you got this afternoon and call it a plus day or do you still put in the play seeing that you may actually lose the two at night and end up in the minus?  What is your thinking on this?
 
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Posted: #133

Oaktown - seeing your write up helped me pull the trigger. 

Great Job Bodio.

 
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Well thats two days in a row I was on the other side of you in the morning and well yeah.....At least last I finished up overall the past few days which is all that really matters I guess. Congrats buddy another no doubter too and both shutouts no less. I hate losing but I gotta give where they're deserved. Stay hot man this is really getting fun to watch.

 Also thanx for the reply on the DEN O 5.5 -160. I thought that may be a little pricey but if you give it the nod I'll lock it in. I may wait though for O 6 at even money and the push though as I don't see the vig moving up much more before the total does.

And thanx for the heads up on the local papers. I'm seeing if Brady starts for even a few drives since the 1st Q especially or even FH may be worth a look. I'm pretty sure with the two injuries to corners NYG will have what was 3 weeks ago their nickle corner in as their number one tonight and to start the season. Even in a vanilla scheme Uncle Tom should be able to exploit that for a TD. Other than that maybe DEN +3 and/or ML since they have the far better depth at QB. But thats it for week 4 preseason

Thanx for the help once again buddy

The Vig definitely sux, but I see Denver being at least a 6-10 team.  I still have to finish up my analysis of this team so be on the lookout for my compete overview early next week.

Just wanted to point out that the standard difference on future wins is 50 cents for each .5 of a win.  So if DEN over 5.5 wins is -160, DEN over 6 should be -110....a 50 cent adjustment.  It's actually the same thing in the long-run.  So if you see DEN over 6 at +100 or better than it might be worth a play but not if it's -110 or worse.  In that case, it's justified to pay -160 juice on over 5.5  Hope this makes sense. 
 
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Posted: #135
cant wait to see what u have in store for us...
 
 
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Posted: #136
What is your day job, how do you have the time to do complete analysis and overviews of each team?
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by RedFlagCapper:

Lets say you had the winner this afternoon but you also like two games tonight.  Do you stop and take what you got this afternoon and call it a plus day or do you still put in the play seeing that you may actually lose the two at night and end up in the minus?  What is your thinking on this?

No, that's not my mentality.  I play ALL my games which I feel have a great shot of winning and are at the right price.  People that play a morning game and then only play another game after winning, are just not very confident in their selections in the first place.  They're just gambling and aren't really sure in their selections.

I cap all my games and that shows me if I'm going to play 1, 2, 3, or 10 games that day...Couple days ago I played 4 total (3 plays and then added NYY when the odds dropped 20 cents on them).  The last couple days I played 1 game each.  It was total chance that these 2 games the last couple of days, were the first games of the day.  Just nothing else today that I feel very strongly about.

Either way, my point is that we should never force games just b/c they're early in the day, or decide to play late games based on outcome of the early ones.  That's not the right way to do this.  You have to play the games which you feel have the best chance of winning no matter what.  Hope this helps
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by RedFlagCapper:

What is your day job, how do you have the time to do complete analysis and overviews of each team?

Full-time Sports Investor 
 
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Posted: #139
Great replies, thanks


 
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Posted: #140
I need to learn how to handicap.  
 
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Posted: #141
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Full-time Sports Investor 


For real or do you really have another job doing something else?  I know people who actually that just do this for a living and nothing else.
 
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Posted: #142
Bodio what we leaning tonite brotha? It's tough to lay low the whole nite while watchin my two kids lol....
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Posted: #143
One last question for today, I promise, how come you don't do team totals itself?  Looks like in previous messages that you cap each team's runs.
 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by Kings55dez:

Bodio what we leaning tonite brotha? It's tough to lay low the whole nite while watchin my two kids lol....

Alright, scanned the NFL games real quick for you.
One small 'action' wager:  Buffalo Bills +2.5

Just don't see the Lions going all-out in this one.  I expect them to rest their starters and have a very 'vanila' game-plan out there.  Bills need more work and should be able to win this game at home...

Tiny lean to Cincy -3.5 as Colts like to lose all of their games.  I'm sure Collins will see some decent time, maybe even a half as he needs work of course.  I believe Collie and Gonzo are both out though so he'll have Wayne and Garcon to throw to.  Cincy is a young team so I expect their guys to get solid work here.

Either way, play Buffalo +2.5 for an 'action' wager and how about spending some time with your kids instead of paying attention to games?!?   
 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


The Vig definitely sux, but I see Denver being at least a 6-10 team.  I still have to finish up my analysis of this team so be on the lookout for my compete overview early next week.

Just wanted to point out that the standard difference on future wins is 50 cents for each .5 of a win.  So if DEN over 5.5 wins is -160, DEN over 6 should be -110....a 50 cent adjustment.  It's actually the same thing in the long-run.  So if you see DEN over 6 at +100 or better than it might be worth a play but not if it's -110 or worse.  In that case, it's justified to pay -160 juice on over 5.5  Hope this makes sense. 
Yep makes perfect sense but honestly I was just kinda guessing what a half win would be worth and I was pretty close.


You can usually make an educated guess in most sports for -1.5's in individual games so I just figured if the line went any higher they would just bump up the total. Hockey it's more than Bases for a goal compared to a run but not as much as a goal in soccer. I know you don't like -1.5's in bases (and I would think NHL as well). I do but even when I play them I try to look for a decent swing in the line. Like today the JAYS would have only went from -115 to +130 which is nothing crazy so I didn't touch it but last night I went from -145 with Zona to +145 so I did.....well actually I played both but I'm in the action person HOF
 
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Posted: #146
hey bodio, i hear u do nfl. thinking of taking denver and the points. what do u think? keep up the great work.
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by RedFlagCapper:



For real or do you really have another job doing something else?  I know people who actually that just do this for a living and nothing else.

I have a small Sports Consultancy business which helps pay the day-to-day bills.  I focus on that and Sports Investment full time though.  Sports Investing helps grow the BR, but my business helps pay the bills
 
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Posted: #148

Damn Bodio, your makingme feel bad... I just played Mario Bro's and shot hoops with them. Am I a better father now? It's not my fault gambling and drinking is in my blood :(

 

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Posted: #149
Quote Originally Posted by RedFlagCapper:

One last question for today, I promise, how come you don't do team totals itself?  Looks like in previous messages that you cap each team's runs.

More risk from my perspective.  But yes, I guess I could expand to it. 
I like focusing on full-games from the standpoint of sides and totals. I guess it just works for me and I never had the urge to dabble in it.  
 
 
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Posted: #150
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Yep makes perfect sense but honestly I was just kinda guessing what a half win would be worth and I was pretty close.


You can usually make an educated guess in most sports for -1.5's in individual games so I just figured if the line went any higher they would just bump up the total. Hockey it's more than Bases for a goal compared to a run but not as much as a goal in soccer. I know you don't like -1.5's in bases (and I would think NHL as well). I do but even when I play them I try to look for a decent swing in the line. Like today the JAYS would have only went from -115 to +130 which is nothing crazy so I didn't touch it but last night I went from -145 with Zona to +145 so I did.....well actually I played both but I'm in the action person HOF

hehe...You sure are my friend!  but hey, it works for you so keep at it! 

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