Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
71 - 52 @ 57% for +14.20 Units
Tue, 05/31
Milwaukee Brewers -124
I'll back the Brew-Crew with Greinke on the mound in this one. Greinke has an FIP of 2.77 (#22 in the league) and xFIP of 1.58, the best xFIP in the majors. HIs .348 BABIP (vely unlucky) and +3.02 E-F (#1 in majors) indicate that his numbers are bound to improve greatly going forward. Part of the reason his ERA is 5.8 is because he's been giving up an abnormal number of HR's -- 5HR's in his 5 starts. He has a 1.61 HR/9 ratio this year, where in his last 3 seasons with the Royals that ratio was at 0.7 HR/9. His HR/FB ratio is 18% this year, where in his last 3 seasons it was 7.0%. These numbers are bound to improve going forward. On the season, Greinke has 39K's to only 3 BB's for a 13.0 K/BB ratio. His WHIP is 1.14 and to me, he's been pretty unlucky so far. Opposite him is a 29 year old career-long minor leaguer Chad Reineke. He is 5-2 in the minors this year in 9 starts with a 2.52 ERA but those numbers are a bit deceiving. First of all his K/9 ratio is only 5.20. This, combined with a mediocre 1.94 K/BB ratio indicates that his stuff is pretty mediocre. Throw in the fact that his BABIP was a very lucky .270 in the minors, and E-F of -1.2 are all signs of some regression being in order. Also, last year in 131 minor-league innings, Reineke allowed 1.16 HR/9 and had a FIP of 4.58, his true indication of his skill-set. Obviously a 29 year-old who only appeared in 5 major league games, is a very mediocre pitcher, and his stats show just that. Against a potent Brewers lineup, I would be surprised if he lasted past the 5th inning in this one. Sure, Reds have a potent lineup as well, but they have to face a former CY Winner. Big advantage to the Brewers here.
Obviously both offenses are very good, and I grade them very close to one another. That being so, there is one other large discrepancy here that favors Milwaukee -- bullpens. Brewers have the 5th best BP, based on xFIP, where they come in at 3.44. They also have a very solid tERA of 3.56. Reds' BP is below average with a 3.99 xFIP and 4.30 tERA. As I don't expect Reineke to last that long, once Reds' BP comes into play, it's another huge advantage for Milwaukee here.
I know Brewers haven't had much success lately playing at Cincy. I also know that the Reds are 5-1 against the Brewers this season. Even so, the pitching advantages in this match-up clearly favor Milwaukee. Brewers are the play.
Good luck!
71 - 52 @ 57% for +14.20 Units
Tue, 05/31
Milwaukee Brewers -124
I'll back the Brew-Crew with Greinke on the mound in this one. Greinke has an FIP of 2.77 (#22 in the league) and xFIP of 1.58, the best xFIP in the majors. HIs .348 BABIP (vely unlucky) and +3.02 E-F (#1 in majors) indicate that his numbers are bound to improve greatly going forward. Part of the reason his ERA is 5.8 is because he's been giving up an abnormal number of HR's -- 5HR's in his 5 starts. He has a 1.61 HR/9 ratio this year, where in his last 3 seasons with the Royals that ratio was at 0.7 HR/9. His HR/FB ratio is 18% this year, where in his last 3 seasons it was 7.0%. These numbers are bound to improve going forward. On the season, Greinke has 39K's to only 3 BB's for a 13.0 K/BB ratio. His WHIP is 1.14 and to me, he's been pretty unlucky so far. Opposite him is a 29 year old career-long minor leaguer Chad Reineke. He is 5-2 in the minors this year in 9 starts with a 2.52 ERA but those numbers are a bit deceiving. First of all his K/9 ratio is only 5.20. This, combined with a mediocre 1.94 K/BB ratio indicates that his stuff is pretty mediocre. Throw in the fact that his BABIP was a very lucky .270 in the minors, and E-F of -1.2 are all signs of some regression being in order. Also, last year in 131 minor-league innings, Reineke allowed 1.16 HR/9 and had a FIP of 4.58, his true indication of his skill-set. Obviously a 29 year-old who only appeared in 5 major league games, is a very mediocre pitcher, and his stats show just that. Against a potent Brewers lineup, I would be surprised if he lasted past the 5th inning in this one. Sure, Reds have a potent lineup as well, but they have to face a former CY Winner. Big advantage to the Brewers here.
Obviously both offenses are very good, and I grade them very close to one another. That being so, there is one other large discrepancy here that favors Milwaukee -- bullpens. Brewers have the 5th best BP, based on xFIP, where they come in at 3.44. They also have a very solid tERA of 3.56. Reds' BP is below average with a 3.99 xFIP and 4.30 tERA. As I don't expect Reineke to last that long, once Reds' BP comes into play, it's another huge advantage for Milwaukee here.
I know Brewers haven't had much success lately playing at Cincy. I also know that the Reds are 5-1 against the Brewers this season. Even so, the pitching advantages in this match-up clearly favor Milwaukee. Brewers are the play.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
0
gl bodio les get hot!!!!!!!
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