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Bodio's MLB Tue 05/31

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by dinamo77:



My soccer record is very good...around 68% past 2 years....the problems start when i bet on MLB, NFL or NBA....if i could stay disciplined like i do in soccer i should be able to keep my feet above the water....I ve been playing soccer at a high level back in Europe, so I bet a lot on European leagues....you can come when you have time in the soccer forum, some very nice guys there, helping each other....look for bakembride posts..now with all the  soccer leagues being on the summer break will be a bit slow.Good luck with your plays!!
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Thanks buddy.  I'll definitely will have to check it out. 
I'm planning to start wagering on EPL in the next season and then move on to SPL and ISA.  Love soccer, used to play it when I was younger, just haven't gotten around to handicapping the sport on a consistent basis.  You know of any websites that provide advanced and/or unusual soccer stats?  
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by Bucci020:

love the play, gl bodio. . . . greinke pitches 7+ today

Sure hope so.  GL brutha
 
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Posted: #103

Good Luck Bodio

 Crew

 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


spadres, you should change the way you look at each matchup.  Nothing is 50/50.  It's like saying that when Arizona Cardinals come to play on the road against New England Patriots, they have a 50/50 chance of winning the game.  Of course, there's a spread usually on a football game, so your argument will be that it's 50/50 against the spread.  Fair enough, but remember that in baseball there is not spread.  It's all ML's and ML's indicate that it's pretty much never 50/50.  Atlanta Braves had a 63% chance of winning that game yesterday according to the odds.  Padres had about 38% chance.  The two percentages will always be above 100% since that's where the bookies make their money, as long as they balance out the action.  Either way, even though Atlanta had a 63% chance to win the game (theoretically of course), they also have a 37% chance of losing it, and that's what happened yesterday.  Very different from your 50/50 suggestion

ok i respect that. oddsmakers see it as atl having a 63% which is fine, but i look at it that any given team can win or any given day... especially in baseball... in football not so much, which is why i said that i respect what u just said.  i remember last year sabathia used to be -300 at home when they faced the royals, and lost many times. but i hardly see the pats being -14.5 at home and loses. 
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Flipping coins and betting on 'instinct' are 50/50 long-term propositions.  You're right about that.  People that spending countless hours researching, handicapping, and modeling sports, are fighting to gain that extra 4-8% gain so that instead of hitting 50/50, they're more 55/45

That's the difference between real sports investors and people that bet with 'instinct'.  If you're saying no matter what the best you can hope for 50/50, then you shouldn't be betting on sports, as you will always get 'juiced out'.  
      
 
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Posted: #106

Bodio - thanks again for your write-up.  And very impressed w/ your patience w/ other posters.

 
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Posted: #107
 
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Posted: #108
gl bodio!!!! nice nba write up buddy..
 
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Posted: #109
I'm with ya bodio.....GL to us brutha
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by sdpadres1:


you are 100% wrong.

 what is the difference in picking the brewers over the reds, then flipping a coin heads being padres and tails being braves?  to state the obvious again, but only cause u didnt understand either the brewers or reds win if he writes a writeup or not, and either the padres or braves win. last time i checked its a 50/50. 

Haha, you are the one who is not getting this. There is skill involved in sports betting. The odds are 50/50 on coin flip odds, but it's possible to pick better than 50% because of SKILL. Guys that have skill, study this shit. I've never heard of a professional sports bettor that just went on gut instinct every bet, so have fun with betting on gut every time. You'll end up losing because of juice with a 50% wins if you're lucky. You may do worse than that.

Look at what Bodio has done in the past year. What is he, up like $50,000? That's skill because he's won over a long period of time. 


 
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Posted: #111
bodio i do pretty good betting in the english premier league.. i just dont post it...only shitty thing is tie is a loss unless you pay the high juice for the final score lines!!! gl and next season lets get that soccer money!!! i was born in england so the shit is in my blood lol...
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by sdpadres1:


ok i respect that. oddsmakers see it as atl having a 63% which is fine, but i look at it that any given team can win or any given day... especially in baseball... in football not so much, which is why i said that i respect what u just said.  i remember last year sabathia used to be -300 at home when they faced the royals, and lost many times. but i hardly see the pats being -14.5 at home and loses. 


The reason it seems that it's more 50/50 in baseball than in sports like football and basketball, is because LUCK plays a much greater part in the former.  Football and basketball, are great sports to handicap because usually talent wins out (majority of the time).  Obviously, spread comes into play, which makes it tough, but just on a win/loss basis, those are the types of team sports where the better team should win a significantly larger proportion of the time.

Baseball is an individual sport (for the most part) -- pitcher vs a batter.  Luck plays a significantly larger part in baseball and that's why it seems that it's 50/50 sometimes.  In all actuality baseball teams range between .400 - .600 winning percentage long-term, with majority of them being around .500.  That's why there's handicappers that ONLY look to play solid 'dog' teams on a daily basis and do well doing so.

Either way...good discussion.  GL today
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by RUSSINGER:

bodio i do pretty good betting in the english premier league.. i just dont post it...only shitty thing is tie is a loss unless you pay the high juice for the final score lines!!! gl and next season lets get that soccer money!!! i was born in england so the shit is in my blood lol...


Nice.  Let's handicap EPL then next season.  I'll definitely get up to speed once NBA is over. 

How did a guy from England end up in Idaho by the way?  work? family?
 
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Posted: #114
i love it all the thing i asked if you were worried about actually happened. Guy gives up 2 hr's to score most of brewers runs, brewers have to get 4+ runs to win with zach on the mound, the reds left him off the hook a couple times though. what can ya do. bol the rest of the way man.
 
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Posted: #115
Just like you wrote up.   Good call bro!!!  :)
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
71 - 52 @ 57% for +14.20 Units




Tue, 05/31

Milwaukee Brewers -124
 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

Way to go Bodio!  Great pick on the Brewers.

We got the under in the Heat game too as long as it does not go overtime.  I've been burned by OT too many times already this year.

 
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Posted: #118
bodios back
 
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Posted: #119
Brewers...

Nice call Bo....I play a bit of soccer also...EPL/SPL/Bundesliga.....not the easiest sport to cap, but there's tons of value if you know your stuff. I find International soccer (World+Euro Cup) much easier...made a killing this year in the WC...how did you do?
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Brewers...

Nice call Bo....I play a bit of soccer also...EPL/SPL/Bundesliga.....not the easiest sport to cap, but there's tons of value if you know your stuff. I find International soccer (World+Euro Cup) much easier...made a killing this year in the WC...how did you do?


Yeah, I did very well in WC.  Looking forward to Euro Cup next year.  We should be able to turn a profit there...
 
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Posted: #121
just to clarify, i was not bashing YOU in particular, just write-ups in general, but yeah im over it. good hit today  
 
 
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Posted: #122

WINNA WINNA CHICKEN DINNA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BREW CREW

BODIO THANKS

NBA + MLB = 2-0

BUCKLE UP BOYZ  BODIO IS BACK

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