You're stating the obvious here. We all get it, random, unpredictable stuff happens in sports. All you can do is gather as much info as you can about a game and work with what you have.
To say write-ups don't work is ridiculous. Anyone who takes the time to make a detailed write-up has a better chance of winning than you betting on your instincts.
you are 100% wrong.
what is the difference in picking the brewers over the reds, then flipping a coin heads being padres and tails being braves? to state the obvious again, but only cause u didnt understand either the brewers or reds win if he writes a writeup or not, and either the padres or braves win. last time i checked its a 50/50.
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Quote Originally Posted by bsandersss:
You're stating the obvious here. We all get it, random, unpredictable stuff happens in sports. All you can do is gather as much info as you can about a game and work with what you have.
To say write-ups don't work is ridiculous. Anyone who takes the time to make a detailed write-up has a better chance of winning than you betting on your instincts.
you are 100% wrong.
what is the difference in picking the brewers over the reds, then flipping a coin heads being padres and tails being braves? to state the obvious again, but only cause u didnt understand either the brewers or reds win if he writes a writeup or not, and either the padres or braves win. last time i checked its a 50/50.
GL hope u get it right, all im saying is that u can analyze absolutley every stat in the book, but the bottom line is, if greinke hangs 1 curve to votto (or anyone) despite his K/BB ratio and his FIP and his FHV and his 3J5JD with runners on, this bet is a loser. same for every single other game. thats why i dont believe in write-ups
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Bodio I cant believe you even responded to this. You dont believe in write ups huh? Thats like saying you dont believe in capping because anything can happen. Well no shit anything can happen on any given night in any league with any team. And when it does people start yelling "FIX". But to say you dont believe in write ups which is basically a wrote out explenation of what made it a play based on capping is one of the dumbest things ive heard on this site.
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Quote Originally Posted by sdpadres1:
GL hope u get it right, all im saying is that u can analyze absolutley every stat in the book, but the bottom line is, if greinke hangs 1 curve to votto (or anyone) despite his K/BB ratio and his FIP and his FHV and his 3J5JD with runners on, this bet is a loser. same for every single other game. thats why i dont believe in write-ups
\
Bodio I cant believe you even responded to this. You dont believe in write ups huh? Thats like saying you dont believe in capping because anything can happen. Well no shit anything can happen on any given night in any league with any team. And when it does people start yelling "FIX". But to say you dont believe in write ups which is basically a wrote out explenation of what made it a play based on capping is one of the dumbest things ive heard on this site.
Yes, agreed with mrquija. Everyone should try not to respond to sdpadres. He is either trolling or is the dumbest person on covers (and that is saying something). Anyone that believe just because there are two teams that each one has a 50% chance of winning has already proven that there is no need to argue with them.
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Yes, agreed with mrquija. Everyone should try not to respond to sdpadres. He is either trolling or is the dumbest person on covers (and that is saying something). Anyone that believe just because there are two teams that each one has a 50% chance of winning has already proven that there is no need to argue with them.
i had no idea that was my record until someone just pointed it out to me; i only knew about the extra 9k in my pocket (lol)
That's almost 60% in the last 14 days; decent sample size 155 bets. Perhaps my baseball is gonna make me rich afterall..
Bodio i hope the brewers win today for me and you both
wow...you bet over 11 plays per day in MLB? That's interesting. Great results by the way. I was always curious how I would do if I bet every game. Maybe I should drop my unit size and try it..hmmm
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Quote Originally Posted by The_True:
last 14 days 92-63 +145 units +$9,000
i had no idea that was my record until someone just pointed it out to me; i only knew about the extra 9k in my pocket (lol)
That's almost 60% in the last 14 days; decent sample size 155 bets. Perhaps my baseball is gonna make me rich afterall..
Bodio i hope the brewers win today for me and you both
wow...you bet over 11 plays per day in MLB? That's interesting. Great results by the way. I was always curious how I would do if I bet every game. Maybe I should drop my unit size and try it..hmmm
You're stating the obvious here. We all get it, random, unpredictable stuff happens in sports. All you can do is gather as much info as you can about a game and work with what you have.
To say write-ups don't work is ridiculous. Anyone who takes the time to make a detailed write-up has a better chance of winning than you betting on your instincts.
hehe...Agree 100%. I personally look for posts with write-ups, to gain insights, and to learn about various angles that I might have missed.
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Quote Originally Posted by bsandersss:
You're stating the obvious here. We all get it, random, unpredictable stuff happens in sports. All you can do is gather as much info as you can about a game and work with what you have.
To say write-ups don't work is ridiculous. Anyone who takes the time to make a detailed write-up has a better chance of winning than you betting on your instincts.
hehe...Agree 100%. I personally look for posts with write-ups, to gain insights, and to learn about various angles that I might have missed.
Bodio....mainly I bet soccer and post my plays in the soccer forum, just wanted say thanks for taking the time to post here and answer questions.Class act, we need more people like you in this forum!!
Thanks buddy.
How's your soccer record? ManU/Barca was a good game, too bad my wager was crap in that one.
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Quote Originally Posted by dinamo77:
Bodio....mainly I bet soccer and post my plays in the soccer forum, just wanted say thanks for taking the time to post here and answer questions.Class act, we need more people like you in this forum!!
Thanks buddy.
How's your soccer record? ManU/Barca was a good game, too bad my wager was crap in that one.
what is the difference in picking the brewers over the reds, then flipping a coin heads being padres and tails being braves? to state the obvious again, but only cause u didnt understand either the brewers or reds win if he writes a writeup or not, and either the padres or braves win. last time i checked its a 50/50.
Flipping coins and betting on 'instinct' are 50/50 long-term propositions. You're right about that. People that spending countless hours researching, handicapping, and modeling sports, are fighting to gain that extra 4-8% gain so that instead of hitting 50/50, they're more 55/45
That's the difference between real sports investors and people that bet with 'instinct'. If you're saying no matter what the best you can hope for 50/50, then you shouldn't be betting on sports, as you will always get 'juiced out'.
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Quote Originally Posted by sdpadres1:
you are 100% wrong.
what is the difference in picking the brewers over the reds, then flipping a coin heads being padres and tails being braves? to state the obvious again, but only cause u didnt understand either the brewers or reds win if he writes a writeup or not, and either the padres or braves win. last time i checked its a 50/50.
Flipping coins and betting on 'instinct' are 50/50 long-term propositions. You're right about that. People that spending countless hours researching, handicapping, and modeling sports, are fighting to gain that extra 4-8% gain so that instead of hitting 50/50, they're more 55/45
That's the difference between real sports investors and people that bet with 'instinct'. If you're saying no matter what the best you can hope for 50/50, then you shouldn't be betting on sports, as you will always get 'juiced out'.
Bodio I cant believe you even responded to this. You dont believe in write ups huh? Thats like saying you dont believe in capping because anything can happen. Well no shit anything can happen on any given night in any league with any team. And when it does people start yelling "FIX". But to say you dont believe in write ups which is basically a wrote out explenation of what made it a play based on capping is one of the dumbest things ive heard on this site.
haha..yeah true. I responded only because that's how MOST bettors think/act (public bettors that are called squares). They think that analyzing games is not important and statistical data is irrelevant. They only believe in 'gut feel' and 'instinct', whatever that means. I just responded b/c there are many people that feel like this, and from my experience if someone really wants to make $$ in this ratchet, it's better to ignore your 'instincts' and 'gut feel' in the long run!
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Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:
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Bodio I cant believe you even responded to this. You dont believe in write ups huh? Thats like saying you dont believe in capping because anything can happen. Well no shit anything can happen on any given night in any league with any team. And when it does people start yelling "FIX". But to say you dont believe in write ups which is basically a wrote out explenation of what made it a play based on capping is one of the dumbest things ive heard on this site.
haha..yeah true. I responded only because that's how MOST bettors think/act (public bettors that are called squares). They think that analyzing games is not important and statistical data is irrelevant. They only believe in 'gut feel' and 'instinct', whatever that means. I just responded b/c there are many people that feel like this, and from my experience if someone really wants to make $$ in this ratchet, it's better to ignore your 'instincts' and 'gut feel' in the long run!
Hey Bodio, Why don't you like the texas Rangers today? I would appreciate your thoughts?
That was my last 'strong lean' to get eliminated actually. And the reason is because of Alex Cobb. He's like 5-0 with 1.14 ERA in 8 starts in the minors this year with 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. His FIP is a sick 2.33 with an unlucky .328 BABIP. As good as the Rangers hitters are, they've never faced this kid. I just can't lay -130+ on the road against a young stud like this. Throw in the fact that Rangers have the WORST BP in the league, and the decision to PASS here was pretty easy
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by jdukes0004:
Hey Bodio, Why don't you like the texas Rangers today? I would appreciate your thoughts?
That was my last 'strong lean' to get eliminated actually. And the reason is because of Alex Cobb. He's like 5-0 with 1.14 ERA in 8 starts in the minors this year with 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. His FIP is a sick 2.33 with an unlucky .328 BABIP. As good as the Rangers hitters are, they've never faced this kid. I just can't lay -130+ on the road against a young stud like this. Throw in the fact that Rangers have the WORST BP in the league, and the decision to PASS here was pretty easy
GL hope u get it right, all im saying is that u can analyze absolutley every stat in the book, but the bottom line is, if greinke hangs 1 curve to votto (or anyone) despite his K/BB ratio and his FIP and his FHV and his 3J5JD with runners on, this bet is a loser. same for every single other game. thats why i dont believe in write-ups
This is by far the stupidest post I've read on covers.
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Quote Originally Posted by sdpadres1:
GL hope u get it right, all im saying is that u can analyze absolutley every stat in the book, but the bottom line is, if greinke hangs 1 curve to votto (or anyone) despite his K/BB ratio and his FIP and his FHV and his 3J5JD with runners on, this bet is a loser. same for every single other game. thats why i dont believe in write-ups
This is by far the stupidest post I've read on covers.
what is the difference in picking the brewers over the reds, then flipping a coin heads being padres and tails being braves? to state the obvious again, but only cause u didnt understand either the brewers or reds win if he writes a writeup or not, and either the padres or braves win. last time i checked its a 50/50.
A 50/50???
I take it back. THIS is the stupidest post ever...
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Quote Originally Posted by sdpadres1:
you are 100% wrong.
what is the difference in picking the brewers over the reds, then flipping a coin heads being padres and tails being braves? to state the obvious again, but only cause u didnt understand either the brewers or reds win if he writes a writeup or not, and either the padres or braves win. last time i checked its a 50/50.
A 50/50???
I take it back. THIS is the stupidest post ever...
How's your soccer record? ManU/Barca was a good game, too bad my wager was crap in that one.
My soccer record is very good...around 68% past 2 years....the problems start when i bet on MLB, NFL or NBA....if i could stay disciplined like i do in soccer i should be able to keep my feet above the water....I ve been playing soccer at a high level back in Europe, so I bet a lot on European leagues....you can come when you have time in the soccer forum, some very nice guys there, helping each other....look for bakembride posts..now with all the soccer leagues being on the summer break will be a bit slow.Good luck with your plays!!
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Thanks buddy.
How's your soccer record? ManU/Barca was a good game, too bad my wager was crap in that one.
My soccer record is very good...around 68% past 2 years....the problems start when i bet on MLB, NFL or NBA....if i could stay disciplined like i do in soccer i should be able to keep my feet above the water....I ve been playing soccer at a high level back in Europe, so I bet a lot on European leagues....you can come when you have time in the soccer forum, some very nice guys there, helping each other....look for bakembride posts..now with all the soccer leagues being on the summer break will be a bit slow.Good luck with your plays!!
really? i thought it was one team or the other? or is this like soccer and theres a draw after 9? or is this the stupidest post ever
spadres, you should change the way you look at each matchup. Nothing is 50/50. It's like saying that when Arizona Cardinals come to play on the road against New England Patriots, they have a 50/50 chance of winning the game. Of course, there's a spread usually on a football game, so your argument will be that it's 50/50 against the spread. Fair enough, but remember that in baseball there is not spread. It's all ML's and ML's indicate that it's pretty much never 50/50. Atlanta Braves had a 63% chance of winning that game yesterday according to the odds. Padres had about 38% chance. The two percentages will always be above 100% since that's where the bookies make their money, as long as they balance out the action. Either way, even though Atlanta had a 63% chance to win the game (theoretically of course), they also have a 37% chance of losing it, and that's what happened yesterday. Very different from your 50/50 suggestion
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Quote Originally Posted by sdpadres1:
really? i thought it was one team or the other? or is this like soccer and theres a draw after 9? or is this the stupidest post ever
spadres, you should change the way you look at each matchup. Nothing is 50/50. It's like saying that when Arizona Cardinals come to play on the road against New England Patriots, they have a 50/50 chance of winning the game. Of course, there's a spread usually on a football game, so your argument will be that it's 50/50 against the spread. Fair enough, but remember that in baseball there is not spread. It's all ML's and ML's indicate that it's pretty much never 50/50. Atlanta Braves had a 63% chance of winning that game yesterday according to the odds. Padres had about 38% chance. The two percentages will always be above 100% since that's where the bookies make their money, as long as they balance out the action. Either way, even though Atlanta had a 63% chance to win the game (theoretically of course), they also have a 37% chance of losing it, and that's what happened yesterday. Very different from your 50/50 suggestion
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