All Forums | MLB Betting

Bodio's MLB Tue 06/14

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 13987
Posts: 89
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 168
Posted: #26
BOL Today Bodio
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #27
#2: Cleveland Indians +170

A couple of factors here as to why I'm fading Verlander.  He's no doubt a great pitcher but he does have a very lucky .227 BABIP (15th luckiest).  Couple that with a below-average GB rate and he's due for regression.  Besides this, both Masterson and Verlander are fairly close in terms of advanced stats:  Masterson 3.14 FIP / 3.54 xFIP / 3.7 tERA....Verlander 3.17 FIP / 3.16 xFIP / 3.3 tERA.  Masterson has a 55% GB%, one of the highest in the league and I expect him to mitigate the effectiveness of this Tigers lineup somewhat, which is the #1 FB hitting team in the league.  Verlander, on the other hand is coming off an outing where he threw 126 pitches.  Normally, that's not a concern with him but he's averaged 123 pitches-per-game in his last 3 starts. (115 per game average in all starts in 2011).  He'll be facing an Indians lineup that had 17 ER's in 32 innings on 29 hits off him last season.  I don't expect him to last past the 7th in this one, which will enable Cleveland to see this terrible Detroit BP for at least 2 innings.  This mediocre 'pen' is already pretty used up over the last couple of games, and thus I expect it to be an even greater advantage for the Indians.  (Cleveland pen is pretty rested, as they were only used for 2 innings last night).  Both teams are fairly close in hitting (#11 for CLE and #8 for DET) and the pitching matchup does not justify a +170 price.  I'll grab Cleveland in this one as I see a close game in this one with the Tribe having an advantage in the later innings.  
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #28
#3: Milwaukee Brewers -138

Brewers have an advantage in EVERY 'key' category here:  better offense (#7 vs #15 based on wOBA); better bullpen (#5 xFIP / #4 teRA vs #23 xFIP / #24 tERA); and better Fielding (#13 vs #29 UZR).  Oh, and the starting pitching is much better as well.  I know Gallardo is coming off a poor outing, but he hasn't allowed more than 2 ER's in 6 straight starts prior to that.  Wells allowed 27 hits and 12 ER's in 17 innings pitched versus the Brew Crew last year.  And even though I expect him to be better than that tonight, there are enough 'key' advantages for Milwaukee that justifies playing them as a road favorite in this one. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

gl buddy...what are your thoughts on the Yanks tonight? Andarmac has a great writeup on them...good "buy low" price against an overrated pitcher that should regress soon in Ogando...



Yeah, Ogando's metrics do show that 'regression' is imminent but I just can't fade him yet.  He's still going strong.  Sabathia seems to get tired in the 'later' innings and against this Rangers lineup I'm not willing to lay -148 odds on him.  Plus Jeter might not play.  Easy PASS for me even though I was looking to back the 'Bombers' in this one
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 6706
Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Lean: Giants but their offense is hard to back on the road


Thanks Bodio!  Your input is always appreciated, and solid write-ups on your plays, as always!!!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 449
Posted: #31
wat up bodio where u been past couple of days? I like your picks as well i like cards n brew but was leaning rays as my 3rd pick i feel like big game shields is gonna have a good outing n rays get to wakefield. Im surprised your on 3 road teams
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 757
Posted: #32
Good luck to both of us buddy !, 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 423
Posted: #33

GL Bodio!

 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 57577
Posted: #34
bol today
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by narco12:

wat up bodio where u been past couple of days? I like your picks as well i like cards n brew but was leaning rays as my 3rd pick i feel like big game shields is gonna have a good outing n rays get to wakefield. Im surprised your on 3 road teams

Yeah, Shields is clearly 'better' in that pitching duel, but I just can't fade Boston right now.  GL!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 243
Posted: #36
BODIO!!!
GREAT PICKS...

WHAT DO YOU THINK ON ATLANTA TODAY?
THEIR OFFENSE WILL SHOW UP TODAY??
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 3640
Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

#2: Cleveland Indians +170

A couple of factors here as to why I'm fading Verlander.  He's no doubt a great pitcher but he does have a very lucky .227 BABIP (15th luckiest).  Couple that with a below-average GB rate and he's due for regression.  Besides this, both Masterson and Verlander are fairly close in terms of advanced stats:  Masterson 3.14 FIP / 3.54 xFIP / 3.7 tERA....Verlander 3.17 FIP / 3.16 xFIP / 3.3 tERA.  Masterson has a 55% GB%, one of the highest in the league and I expect him to mitigate the effectiveness of this Tigers lineup somewhat, which is the #1 FB hitting team in the league.  Verlander, on the other hand is coming off an outing where he threw 126 pitches.  Normally, that's not a concern with him but he's averaged 123 pitches-per-game in his last 3 starts. (115 per game average in all starts in 2011).  He'll be facing an Indians lineup that had 17 ER's in 32 innings on 29 hits off him last season.  I don't expect him to last past the 7th in this one, which will enable Cleveland to see this terrible Detroit BP for at least 2 innings.  This mediocre 'pen' is already pretty used up over the last couple of games, and thus I expect it to be an even greater advantage for the Indians.  (Cleveland pen is pretty rested, as they were only used for 2 innings last night).  Both teams are fairly close in hitting (#11 for CLE and #8 for DET) and the pitching matchup does not justify a +170 price.  I'll grab Cleveland in this one as I see a close game in this one with the Tribe having an advantage in the later innings.  


Offensive trends are at least as important if not more important than season long stats. In the last week, the Tigers are batting nearly 100 points better than the Indians, and scored more than twice as many runs per game as the Indians.

What do you think?
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by krman32:

BODIO!!!
GREAT PICKS...

WHAT DO YOU THINK ON ATLANTA TODAY?
THEIR OFFENSE WILL SHOW UP TODAY??

I was leaning Mets in this one. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Werker:



Offensive trends are at least as important if not more important than season long stats. In the last week, the Tigers are batting nearly 100 points better than the Indians, and scored more than twice as many runs per game as the Indians.

What do you think?

I'm assuming you're talking about short-term streaks (not sure what you mean by 'offensive trends').  In that case, I disagree.  Short-term hitting streaks aren't more important than long-term, season-long performance #'s.  The fact that player A hit 100 points above his true-career average last week, does not mean that he's that much more likely to get a hit in his next at-bat.  It's like saying that after 10 'reds' on a roulette table, there probability of getting another 'red' is higher than 50/50.  

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2011
Posts: 1335
Posted: #40
GL bodio
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 7
Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


I'm assuming you're talking about short-term streaks (not sure what you mean by 'offensive trends').  In that case, I disagree.  Short-term hitting streaks aren't more important than long-term, season-long performance #'s.  The fact that player A hit 100 points above his true-career average last week, does not mean that he's that much more likely to get a hit in his next at-bat.  It's like saying that after 10 'reds' on a roulette table, there probability of getting another 'red' is higher than 50/50.  

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 16408
Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


I'm assuming you're talking about short-term streaks (not sure what you mean by 'offensive trends').  In that case, I disagree.  Short-term hitting streaks aren't more important than long-term, season-long performance #'s.  The fact that player A hit 100 points above his true-career average last week, does not mean that he's that much more likely to get a hit in his next at-bat.  It's like saying that after 10 'reds' on a roulette table, there probability of getting another 'red' is higher than 50/50.  


i actually disagree.  not comparing apples to apples there.  a roulette table does not have a confidence factor to it.  psyche is such a big part of a hitter's game that it makes a big difference.  when i played ball, i was a MUCH better hitter when i was on a "streak".
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 3640
Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:


i actually disagree.  not comparing apples to apples there.  a roulette table does not have a confidence factor to it.  psyche is such a big part of a hitter's game that it makes a big difference.  when i played ball, i was a MUCH better hitter when i was on a "streak".


Absolutely agree with you Sims.

Bodio, you can't seriously disregard streaks entirely. Do you?
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:


i actually disagree.  not comparing apples to apples there.  a roulette table does not have a confidence factor to it.  psyche is such a big part of a hitter's game that it makes a big difference.  when i played ball, i was a MUCH better hitter when i was on a "streak".

Let's say you're on a 'streak' and your psyche is really high.  How do you explain going 0-4 against a mediocre pitcher in your next outing?  Are you all of a sudden going 'cold'?  Why does that happen?  How can you predict when a player (or a team) goes hot or cold?  I used to look at short-term streaks/performance in the past, but I'm beginning to realize that it just 'complicates' things and is not really a factor.  To me, it's simpler, and more efficient, to evaluate each team's 'true' ability and ignore the 'current' streak.  Streaks come and go, and usually are too complex to explain (pitchers, weather, ballparks, luck, etc.), but when you have a decent sample size of data (like we do now at this point of the season) it's pretty easy to compare one teams' offense vs another, and vice versa.

Anyone have thoughts on this?
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Werker:



Absolutely agree with you Sims.

Bodio, you can't seriously disregard streaks entirely. Do you?

YES, in baseball I do!  To me 'streaks' have too many factors that have ZERO impact on the NEXT game.  

Think about this.  If team X plays Chicago Cubs (worst ERA in the league right now) in a 4 game series and team X averages 5 rpg and bats .350 in those 4 games, when their season-long average is 3.5 rpg and .290 BA.  When team X plays Florida (#15th team ERA) in their next game, are you going to handicap that game focusing on the supposedly 'hot' hitting streak that team X is on, or are you going to use their 'true' ability to hit the ball?  

Obviously this is a very simplistic example, since I'm only focusing on Cubs' ERA to explain why team X hit so much better in a short 4-game series than their 'true' ability.  There are way more factors involved in explaining why a particular team is hitting better or worse then their ability for a short-period of time.  (One of the biggest is LUCK, which is a huge 'factor' in baseball).  I'd rather not waste my time trying to analyze ALL of these factors (there are a ton) but rather spend my time analyzing the 'true' ability of each squad (hitter) and comparing them to one another.  Hope this makes sense...
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 2068
Posted: #46
You should be an agent for some of the fired hitting coaches from this year Bodio
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 16408
Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


The fact that player A hit 100 points above his true-career average last week, does not mean that he's that much more likely to get a hit in his next at-bat.  It's like saying that after 10 'reds' on a roulette table, there probability of getting another 'red' is higher than 50/50.  


i wasn't saying that streaks are MORE important in capping just that your statements above are wrong imo.

i'm on the rays today, so obviously i don't use streaks.  
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2002
Posts: 3660
Posted: #48
Good luck Bodio
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 11114
Posted: #49
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 334
Posted: #50
agree totally!!! GL bodio   Sweep today!!
All Forums | MLB Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.