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Bodio's MLB Wed 08/24

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Posted: #51
HOT LANTA last night.  WOW. 
 
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Posted: #52
I love Mariners today, come on Felix, show them who's the KING
 
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Posted: #53
ty
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by welsknight:

What are your thoughts on the Brewers Pirates game? BOL as always.

sorry fellas.  Wasn't around to answer some of these.
Hope you win them...
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by RedFlagCapper:

How long do you spend capping games in a day?  Seems like a lot of work for every game (i.e., getting all those individual stats, etc.) ?

A long time.  There's a lot of games and it's important to go through each in detail.  My models help me tremendously but I still handicap each game individually after that.  

It's all about how much work you put into this little hobby of ours.  The more work you put in, the better the results -- at least that's my experience
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by wolfeman3:

Stay hot Bo...been a helluva 4-5 weeks.

Quick off topic question...do you use multiple books to shop lines?


Absolutely...and a couple of locals, but I don't use their lines when I post my plays.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


A long time.  There's a lot of games and it's important to go through each in detail.  My models help me tremendously but I still handicap each game individually after that.  

It's all about how much work you put into this little hobby of ours.  The more work you put in, the better the results -- at least that's my experience


 Outstanding.   


You're time & effort is greatly appreciated, Bodio.   

 
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Posted: #58

Quote Originally Posted by jpg30:

Hi Bodio,

Would you please post the stat write-ups for the Mil-PIT game as well as the Cin-FLA DH?

Thanks & continued luck.

Joe

Yeah absolutely.  MIL/PIT already started.  Here are the CIN/FLA ones:

==========================================

Cincinnati Reds 63-65 (49%) @ Florida Marlins 57-71 (45%)

H. Bailey, starting for Cincinnati Reds, has a FIP of 4.22 (#128 in MLB), xFIP of 4.1 (#117 in MLB), and tERA of 4.56 (#135 in MLB), with a BABIP of .288, LOB% of 71%, and E-F of 0.21. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.59, with a WHIP of 1.3, and opponent BA of .262. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 19%, GB%: 40%, FB%: 42% for a 0.95 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 10%.

J. Vazquez, starting for Florida Marlins, has a FIP of 4.17 (#123 in MLB), xFIP of 4.21 (#138 in MLB), and tERA of 4.55 (#134 in MLB), with a BABIP of .296, LOB% of 65%, and E-F of 0.5. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.48, with a WHIP of 1.36, and opponent BA of .262. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 32%, FB%: 47% for a 0.69 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 9%.

Cincinnati Reds have the #16 bullpen, #10 offense, and are rated #4 in fielding. They have a road record of 29-35 (45%), ranked #19 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.

Florida Marlins have the #9 bullpen, #19 offense, and are rated #18 in fielding. They have a home record of 24-40 (38%), ranked #29 in MLB and have Lost 6 in a row.



Odds: CIN -107 (52%) FLA +101 (50%) O/U = 8

Lean: none
=======================================

Cincinnati Reds 63-65 (49%) @ Florida Marlins 57-71 (45%)

B. Arroyo, starting for Cincinnati Reds, has a FIP of 5.57 (#214 in MLB), xFIP of 4.34 (#149 in MLB), and tERA of 5.93 (#207 in MLB), with a BABIP of .286, LOB% of 72%, and E-F of -0.29. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.28, with a WHIP of 1.4, and opponent BA of .284. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 41%, FB%: 41% for a 1.01 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 16%.

C. Volstad, starting for Florida Marlins, has a FIP of 4.68 (#171 in MLB), xFIP of 3.7 (#66 in MLB), and tERA of 5.37 (#184 in MLB), with a BABIP of .319, LOB% of 66%, and E-F of 0.92. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.25, with a WHIP of 1.51, and opponent BA of .293. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 21%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 28% for a 1.81 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 17%.

Cincinnati Reds have the #16 bullpen, #10 offense, and are rated #4 in fielding. They have a road record of 29-35 (45%), ranked #19 in MLB and have Won 2 in a row.

Florida Marlins have the #9 bullpen, #19 offense, and are rated #18 in fielding. They have a home record of 24-40 (38%), ranked #29 in MLB and have Lost 6 in a row.



Odds: CIN -118 (54%) FLA +111 (47%) O/U = 9

Lean: Marlins
=======================================
 
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Posted: #59
  thanks for the pick. GL.
 
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Posted: #60
Hey bodio,

Not sure if I am making this up or if you previously stated it...
You bet a flat $1000/game.  Your bankroll is aprox $100,000.  True?

Assuming these numbers.....
How often do you take profit, or are you continually building a larger and larger bankroll?
Do you still work, or do you do this as a job?
Do you have trouble putting down bets, aka, have any books ever limited you or shut you down altogether?
How often do you have dicipline lapses? 

Hopefully you have a few minutes to answer these today, I would definitely appreciate it.

 
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Posted: #61
SEA    
 
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Posted: #62
Action Parlay:  
Houston Astros +1.5 RL / Anderson Silva (this Sat): +106

My brother brought the Astros to my attention.  He's playing them ML at +154 odds, but I'll try my luck in a small action parlay. 

Big pitching discrepancy in starting pitching as Wandy Rodriguez has been dealing lately, while Cook is way past his prime.  Houston is averaging 5.6 rpg on 11 hits per game in their last 5, and I expect this to continue in Coors Field tonight.  Colorado is only 14-26 in day games this year and I like Houston to avoid a sweep here. 

Anderson Silva -- the best pound for pound fighter in the world.  No other explanation needed.

Good luck!
 
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Posted: #63
Any picks for the late games Bodio?...GL!!!
 
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Posted: #64
hi bodio what your take on Houston / Rockies over r under 
cheers
 
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Posted: #65
you're not all concerned that wandy might very well not be very focused today?
 
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Posted: #66
Considering he is pitching against the team he might very well be a part of tomorrow, how can he be focused?
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

Action Parlay:  
Houston Astros +1.5 RL / Anderson Silva (this Sat): +106

My brother brought the Astros to my attention.  He's playing them ML at +154 odds, but I'll try my luck in a small action parlay. 

Big pitching discrepancy in starting pitching as Wandy Rodriguez has been dealing lately, while Cook is way past his prime.  Houston is averaging 5.6 rpg on 11 hits per game in their last 5, and I expect this to continue in Coors Field tonight.  Colorado is only 14-26 in day games this year and I like Houston to avoid a sweep here. 

Anderson Silva -- the best pound for pound fighter in the world.  No other explanation needed.

Good luck!

Silva +106 where did u find that?
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by canadiantruth:

Hey bodio,

Not sure if I am making this up or if you previously stated it...
You bet a flat $1000/game.  Your bankroll is aprox $100,000.  True?

Assuming these numbers.....
How often do you take profit, or are you continually building a larger and larger bankroll?
Do you still work, or do you do this as a job?
Do you have trouble putting down bets, aka, have any books ever limited you or shut you down altogether?
How often do you have dicipline lapses? 

Hopefully you have a few minutes to answer these today, I would definitely appreciate it.


Well, my winnings overall are over 100k (not counting baseball yet) this past year (all sports), so my overall BR is a bit higher than that.  Once football starts, I will re-calibrate my BR to an even 100k and my betting amounts will rise as well.  It'll be 2k per bet for a 2% flat-bet amount per unit.  The profits from this year I've been taking out over time. No books have shut me down yet, although I had to pull some $$ from theGreek.  Never have discipline lapses as I utilize 'action plays' (usually 1/5 or 1/4 of my normal bet) as my 'fun account' and that helps with maintaining discipline.    
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by ptl647:

hi bodio what your take on Houston / Rockies over r under 
cheers

OVER
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

Considering he is pitching against the team he might very well be a part of tomorrow, how can he be focused?

Not really.  Call this an 'audition' for Wandy.  Plus the negotiations have stalled...
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by HN4Life:


Silva +106 where did u find that?

That's the odds on the parlay
 
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Posted: #72
 
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Posted: #73
hey bodio thanks for all your hard work. do you play both college and NFL football or just one? looking forward to following you in football as baseball has been good to me thanks to you
 
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Posted: #74
Book wouldn't let me get it off in time!! Rats!!!

GREAT PIC
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by jwbjwbjwb12:

hey bodio thanks for all your hard work. do you play both college and NFL football or just one? looking forward to following you in football as baseball has been good to me thanks to you

both.  NFL is my primary sport.
College Football I'm going to be very selective, just like college basketball.. 
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