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Bodio's MLB Wed 08/24

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Posted: #101
I'm playing NYY -1.5. What do you think about that, Bodio? 

Can't play parlays, and I prefer not to. :D
 
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Posted: #102
thank you Bodio, best of luck with your parlay
 
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Posted: #103
Bodio i took the yankees RL. I think it's much safer compared to betting on the Giants who are struggling at the moment. But your the beast, and im glad your on the yanks. 
 
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Posted: #104

Bodio --

Just got on the site and have been following you for a few weeks now -- I just wanted to say thank you for your hard work. Its much appreciated.

I've bet on sports for a while, but now am trying to really understand the stats -- build a model (for MLB, as well as for NFL and the NBA). Any suggestions on books or articles to read? or info on how you built your model? You got a math background yourself?

Anyways, thanks for the write-ups. I'll be riding with you tonight and throughout the rest of the season.

GL

 
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Posted: #105
Darn I love that one Bodio. Same one crossed my mind earlier. Bol, lets get the cash.
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by spixelpew:

I'm playing NYY -1.5. What do you think about that, Bodio? 

Can't play parlays, and I prefer not to. :D

It's solid.  Wish the Yankees were on the road though to lay -1.5
Good luck! 
 
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Posted: #107

Quote Originally Posted by ogkush:

Bodio i took the yankees RL. I think it's much safer compared to betting on the Giants who are struggling at the moment. But your the beast, and im glad your on the yanks. 

Sort of looking at it as are the Padres going to beat Cain and Lincecum b-b on the road and are the A's going to beat Colon and Sabathia b-b on the road? Both home teams dropped their games last night so I look for both to bounce back with wins at home tonight. Also that SD-SF series is only a two-gamer. 

 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by Monk2334:

Bodio --

Just got on the site and have been following you for a few weeks now -- I just wanted to say thank you for your hard work. Its much appreciated.

I've bet on sports for a while, but now am trying to really understand the stats -- build a model (for MLB, as well as for NFL and the NBA). Any suggestions on books or articles to read? or info on how you built your model? You got a math background yourself?

Anyways, thanks for the write-ups. I'll be riding with you tonight and throughout the rest of the season.

GL


Read "Moneyball" -- great for MLB
"Basketball on Paper" is excellent for NBA
"Hidden game of football" is solid for NFL
 
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Posted: #109
NYY TT 5 runs is the play. 
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

I have that KC/Jays game at 9.3 total runs.  I wouldn't play the under there.

 

Parlay NYY + SF


i ended up pulling the trigger on Ny-RL,LAA-RL,Minny,SF,Ariz

 
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Posted: #111
you are wrong Bodio....

lol im glad you pick SF in a parlay

NYY -1.5  / SD ml.....

watch SD numbers vs T.L. at SF and the way SD is batting vs SF rub bats you'll see

also Det/Tb Ov 8.5, Atl/Chi Ov 9 and Tor ml

GL Bodio ur the best but i fade ur parlays  lol
 
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Posted: #112
 
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Posted: #113

And to think I questioned your over play yesterday in the Bos/Tex game.....

You sir, are very good...

 
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Posted: #114
BOL today Bolio. Love that Yankees today but juice is way too high I'd rather play nothing today. Linecum is a beast but I promised to stay away from SF G'mens horrid bats. They cost me more than any other team this year (all recently). But I'll be rooting for u!!!
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

#2: Parlay:
New York Yankees ML / San Francisco Giants ML +115

Let me start out first by saying that I'm 0-4 this year betting these kinds of parlays. Regression to 50% is in my favor right? hehe... All kidding aside, if not for these 4 parlay plays, we'd be up 4 more units on the season or 25% more profitable than we are now. But then again, if a couple of them go our way, then the profits would be even higher. With that being said, I love this parlay tonight and fully expect my 'parlay' record to go to 1-4 this year.

Yankees own the A's winning 21 of the last 26 games between the 2 teams. The 'Bombers' don't lose twice in a row that often and I expect them to be very successful against Cahill who is 0-4 with a 13.5 ERA against them.

Stauffer has given up 9 HR"s in the past 3 games and even though he's a decent pitcher, this is the most innings he's pitched in his career, more than in the past 2 seasons combined. I"d say he's slowing down a bit. Giants got tons of lefties in their lineup and Stauffer has a career xFIP of 4.26 against left-handers. With Timmy on the mound, I see a comfortable Giants win.

Good luck fellas!


Hey bodio, where are you getting SF ML +115?
 
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Posted: #116
Nvm, I just hate a retard moment.  Don't mind me.
 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by bigDe1002003:

Nvm, I just hate a retard moment.  Don't mind me.

Lol  Gluck Bodie
 
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Posted: #118

Quote Originally Posted by bigDe1002003:



Hey bodio, where are you getting SF ML +115?

I believe thats the value of the parlay

 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

#2: Parlay:
New York Yankees ML / San Francisco Giants ML +115

Let me start out first by saying that I'm 0-4 this year betting these kinds of parlays. Regression to 50% is in my favor right? hehe... All kidding aside, if not for these 4 parlay plays, we'd be up 4 more units on the season or 25% more profitable than we are now. But then again, if a couple of them go our way, then the profits would be even higher. With that being said, I love this parlay tonight and fully expect my 'parlay' record to go to 1-4 this year.

Yankees own the A's winning 21 of the last 26 games between the 2 teams. The 'Bombers' don't lose twice in a row that often and I expect them to be very successful against Cahill who is 0-4 with a 13.5 ERA against them.

Stauffer has given up 9 HR"s in the past 3 games and even though he's a decent pitcher, this is the most innings he's pitched in his career, more than in the past 2 seasons combined. I"d say he's slowing down a bit. Giants got tons of lefties in their lineup and Stauffer has a career xFIP of 4.26 against left-handers. With Timmy on the mound, I see a comfortable Giants win.

Good luck fellas!

BOL, but I hate parlays, too.  Plus, SF bats are minor league at best right now.

 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

#2: Parlay:
New York Yankees ML / San Francisco Giants ML +115

Let me start out first by saying that I'm 0-4 this year betting these kinds of parlays. Regression to 50% is in my favor right? hehe... All kidding aside, if not for these 4 parlay plays, we'd be up 4 more units on the season or 25% more profitable than we are now. But then again, if a couple of them go our way, then the profits would be even higher. With that being said, I love this parlay tonight and fully expect my 'parlay' record to go to 1-4 this year.

Yankees own the A's winning 21 of the last 26 games between the 2 teams. The 'Bombers' don't lose twice in a row that often and I expect them to be very successful against Cahill who is 0-4 with a 13.5 ERA against them.

Stauffer has given up 9 HR"s in the past 3 games and even though he's a decent pitcher, this is the most innings he's pitched in his career, more than in the past 2 seasons combined. I"d say he's slowing down a bit. Giants got tons of lefties in their lineup and Stauffer has a career xFIP of 4.26 against left-handers. With Timmy on the mound, I see a comfortable Giants win.

Good luck fellas!

crazy!! ive been mulling over playing the same play!!  love it ! great work bodio

 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

Action Parlay:  
Houston Astros +1.5 RL / Anderson Silva (this Sat): +106

My brother brought the Astros to my attention.  He's playing them ML at +154 odds, but I'll try my luck in a small action parlay. 

Big pitching discrepancy in starting pitching as Wandy Rodriguez has been dealing lately, while Cook is way past his prime.  Houston is averaging 5.6 rpg on 11 hits per game in their last 5, and I expect this to continue in Coors Field tonight.  Colorado is only 14-26 in day games this year and I like Houston to avoid a sweep here. 

Anderson Silva -- the best pound for pound fighter in the world.  No other explanation needed.

Good luck!

Now need Silva to take care of business on Saturday! 
 
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Posted: #122
 
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Posted: #123
Evening Bodio....I haven't missed many of your writeups and have most definitely benefitted greatly from your words of advice on sound betting strategies, and will work on reading the 3 books you've recommended.

I like your lean on Arizona today and and contemplating playing...curious as to whether this will make your playlist tonite and if not why.

Truly appreciate your sharing the way you do.

BOL and thanks   
 
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Posted: #124
great sources; just wondering if those books are still great options for someone looking to create complex spreadsheets?  Will they be out of date, or some of the stats not as effective?  Thanks and good luck man
 
 
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