$$$ Cubs -0.5 (-130) 1st 5 $$$ (Arrieta vs Peavy) Trying to bounce back on my $$ picks here. Of course all my personal plays have been killing it I've just been picking the wrong one as a $$ play. Arrieta has been my cash cow this year and I'll ride him all year. Arrieta has thrown 18 straight scoreless innings on the road where he is 15-0 w/ a 1.19 ERA in 19 starts; simply amazing. Arrieta allowed an unearned run and fanned 14 while walking three in 13 2/3 innings to win both his starts vs San Fran last year. Peavy is someone I've faded this year in general, adding Arrieta and Cubs bats as the opposition = easy money. $$$ Cubs -0.5 (-130) 1st 5 $$$
$$$ Cubs -0.5 (-130) 1st 5 $$$ (Arrieta vs Peavy) Trying to bounce back on my $$ picks here. Of course all my personal plays have been killing it I've just been picking the wrong one as a $$ play. Arrieta has been my cash cow this year and I'll ride him all year. Arrieta has thrown 18 straight scoreless innings on the road where he is 15-0 w/ a 1.19 ERA in 19 starts; simply amazing. Arrieta allowed an unearned run and fanned 14 while walking three in 13 2/3 innings to win both his starts vs San Fran last year. Peavy is someone I've faded this year in general, adding Arrieta and Cubs bats as the opposition = easy money. $$$ Cubs -0.5 (-130) 1st 5 $$$
Having said all that about Cubs series, I have no doubt someone will jsut call me an idiot and just say take Arrieta in game 1 at the value line of -195 and be done with it, no need to worry about game 2 or 3. So before anybody else says it, I will. I'm an idiot and tend to overthink things.
@nfl_brosuf - there are lies, damn lies, and statistics my friend! As a math major, I love statistics, can't get enough of them really. You bring up good historical trends. What I see though is Yankee pitcher Sabathia making his 1st start off of the disabled list and facing an As team that has been swinging the bats fairly well (except for last night). Plus his last two starts in Oakland Sabathia gave up almost a run per inning pitched. Plus looking at Sabathia's work this year, he has given up 3 ER in every game (except for his last start before the injury)
Looking at Sonny Gray, in his last 5 starts he has given up between 3-7 runs and has not looked anywhere close to his previous form from years past. Granted, 4 of those last 5 games were on the road. A telling sign that he is struggling to find his pitching form is his strikes/walk ratio. It is not horrible but nowhere close to what it was when he was on top of his game.
A minor negative to my over bet is that Reddick is out with a broken thumb for the As. He was swinging the bat pretty good lately. But with both starters giving up a minimum of 3 runs per outing that means the bullpen will have to step up big for both teams to keep this game under. Note that Yankees top 3 bullpen guys have pitched on two consecutive days. That does *not* mean that they will not pitch a third straight day, but it brings up a question mark as to their availability.
I may make this a $$ play, still thinking about it. Tough to bet over at Oaklands huge stadium with constant marine layer. I know MaxWager would also tell me to be cautious here, he he.
Having said all that about Cubs series, I have no doubt someone will jsut call me an idiot and just say take Arrieta in game 1 at the value line of -195 and be done with it, no need to worry about game 2 or 3. So before anybody else says it, I will. I'm an idiot and tend to overthink things.
@nfl_brosuf - there are lies, damn lies, and statistics my friend! As a math major, I love statistics, can't get enough of them really. You bring up good historical trends. What I see though is Yankee pitcher Sabathia making his 1st start off of the disabled list and facing an As team that has been swinging the bats fairly well (except for last night). Plus his last two starts in Oakland Sabathia gave up almost a run per inning pitched. Plus looking at Sabathia's work this year, he has given up 3 ER in every game (except for his last start before the injury)
Looking at Sonny Gray, in his last 5 starts he has given up between 3-7 runs and has not looked anywhere close to his previous form from years past. Granted, 4 of those last 5 games were on the road. A telling sign that he is struggling to find his pitching form is his strikes/walk ratio. It is not horrible but nowhere close to what it was when he was on top of his game.
A minor negative to my over bet is that Reddick is out with a broken thumb for the As. He was swinging the bat pretty good lately. But with both starters giving up a minimum of 3 runs per outing that means the bullpen will have to step up big for both teams to keep this game under. Note that Yankees top 3 bullpen guys have pitched on two consecutive days. That does *not* mean that they will not pitch a third straight day, but it brings up a question mark as to their availability.
I may make this a $$ play, still thinking about it. Tough to bet over at Oaklands huge stadium with constant marine layer. I know MaxWager would also tell me to be cautious here, he he.
Of the two remaining soccer teams of my once-looking-good three-teamer parlay with a win on the first game, BOTH teams wound up in effing draws, man!
One team that I had picked had just TWO goal attempts by the 70th minute; the other team had FIFTEEN goal attempts.
Did my team eat too many 420 cookies, or something? Get laid too much the night before? The FK?
Anyway, in this Slovakia league, I DID notice that there were draws in 25% of the freak'n games, so I was quite worried about a draw, let alone two of them -- but draws happened today.
I've made it a point to myself to stay away from leagues that have a lot of draws, and this experience today proves my point to myself to avoid leagues with a lot of draws.
The link above will take you to the Italy league -- look at the massive numbers of draws (yellow squares w/"D") ... no-go -- unless you want to bet on draws.
I'm going to spend a bunch of time tonight looking over the huge slate of Saturday games, then I'll share what I've found in the the Saturday thread when it goes live.
Many of the soccer games would start early, so you may want to check the Sat thread on late Friday night or in the wee hours of Saturday.
If you tail me on the Sat plays, tail very carefully, as I'm a newbie myself, but will be making the best-possible choices that can be made, IMO.
Well, sh*t, man.
Of the two remaining soccer teams of my once-looking-good three-teamer parlay with a win on the first game, BOTH teams wound up in effing draws, man!
One team that I had picked had just TWO goal attempts by the 70th minute; the other team had FIFTEEN goal attempts.
Did my team eat too many 420 cookies, or something? Get laid too much the night before? The FK?
Anyway, in this Slovakia league, I DID notice that there were draws in 25% of the freak'n games, so I was quite worried about a draw, let alone two of them -- but draws happened today.
I've made it a point to myself to stay away from leagues that have a lot of draws, and this experience today proves my point to myself to avoid leagues with a lot of draws.
The link above will take you to the Italy league -- look at the massive numbers of draws (yellow squares w/"D") ... no-go -- unless you want to bet on draws.
I'm going to spend a bunch of time tonight looking over the huge slate of Saturday games, then I'll share what I've found in the the Saturday thread when it goes live.
Many of the soccer games would start early, so you may want to check the Sat thread on late Friday night or in the wee hours of Saturday.
If you tail me on the Sat plays, tail very carefully, as I'm a newbie myself, but will be making the best-possible choices that can be made, IMO.
This thread is the definition of what a sports betting forum should consist of. No bashing. No B1tching. Just coming together and posting picks with a little reasoning behind it.
SSSShhhhhhhhhhuch.....Dont wake up the AssHats
Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:
This thread is the definition of what a sports betting forum should consist of. No bashing. No B1tching. Just coming together and posting picks with a little reasoning behind it.
Having said all that about Cubs series, I have no doubt someone will jsut call me an idiot and just say take Arrieta in game 1 at the value line of -195 and be done with it, no need to worry about game 2 or 3. So before anybody else says it, I will. I'm an idiot and tend to overthink things.
@nfl_brosuf - there are lies, damn lies, and statistics my friend! As a math major, I love statistics, can't get enough of them really. You bring up good historical trends. What I see though is Yankee pitcher Sabathia making his 1st start off of the disabled list and facing an As team that has been swinging the bats fairly well (except for last night). Plus his last two starts in Oakland Sabathia gave up almost a run per inning pitched. Plus looking at Sabathia's work this year, he has given up 3 ER in every game (except for his last start before the injury)
Looking at Sonny Gray, in his last 5 starts he has given up between 3-7 runs and has not looked anywhere close to his previous form from years past. Granted, 4 of those last 5 games were on the road. A telling sign that he is struggling to find his pitching form is his strikes/walk ratio. It is not horrible but nowhere close to what it was when he was on top of his game.
A minor negative to my over bet is that Reddick is out with a broken thumb for the As. He was swinging the bat pretty good lately. But with both starters giving up a minimum of 3 runs per outing that means the bullpen will have to step up big for both teams to keep this game under. Note that Yankees top 3 bullpen guys have pitched on two consecutive days. That does *not* mean that they will not pitch a third straight day, but it brings up a question mark as to their availability.
I may make this a $$ play, still thinking about it. Tough to bet over at Oaklands huge stadium with constant marine layer. I know MaxWager would also tell me to be cautious here, he he.
I'm about 2 hours away from the bay area and last night, it was super windy. I am not so sure tonight but from the look of the trees outside my window, it is howling and flying all over the place. It is going to be another windy day and I do not know which direction the wind is blowing into or out to help out with the bat.
Bet with confidence
X_____________________________
Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:
Having said all that about Cubs series, I have no doubt someone will jsut call me an idiot and just say take Arrieta in game 1 at the value line of -195 and be done with it, no need to worry about game 2 or 3. So before anybody else says it, I will. I'm an idiot and tend to overthink things.
@nfl_brosuf - there are lies, damn lies, and statistics my friend! As a math major, I love statistics, can't get enough of them really. You bring up good historical trends. What I see though is Yankee pitcher Sabathia making his 1st start off of the disabled list and facing an As team that has been swinging the bats fairly well (except for last night). Plus his last two starts in Oakland Sabathia gave up almost a run per inning pitched. Plus looking at Sabathia's work this year, he has given up 3 ER in every game (except for his last start before the injury)
Looking at Sonny Gray, in his last 5 starts he has given up between 3-7 runs and has not looked anywhere close to his previous form from years past. Granted, 4 of those last 5 games were on the road. A telling sign that he is struggling to find his pitching form is his strikes/walk ratio. It is not horrible but nowhere close to what it was when he was on top of his game.
A minor negative to my over bet is that Reddick is out with a broken thumb for the As. He was swinging the bat pretty good lately. But with both starters giving up a minimum of 3 runs per outing that means the bullpen will have to step up big for both teams to keep this game under. Note that Yankees top 3 bullpen guys have pitched on two consecutive days. That does *not* mean that they will not pitch a third straight day, but it brings up a question mark as to their availability.
I may make this a $$ play, still thinking about it. Tough to bet over at Oaklands huge stadium with constant marine layer. I know MaxWager would also tell me to be cautious here, he he.
I'm about 2 hours away from the bay area and last night, it was super windy. I am not so sure tonight but from the look of the trees outside my window, it is howling and flying all over the place. It is going to be another windy day and I do not know which direction the wind is blowing into or out to help out with the bat.
I think I need to stop playing these soccer game live. It made me bipolar with the swing of things. If you watch the play by play in this game, it is down right stupid.
5/20/16 3:24pm
$47.68
$40.41
Pending
Soccer - .CS MARITIMO MADEIRA vs SL BENFICA - Odd/even Total goals scored for the Game Even -118
I'm on the even score for the game right? At 87 mins, I was winning as it was even. At 90 mins, it become odd and I went nuts
then at 94 mins, goal for the even again and that's the whole game. All them goals in a span of minutes. My gosh, I cashed but I'm calling it. I just can not tolerate these odd even score live betting plays. Play odd even total score in basketball will make me go nuts further.
X_____________________________
I think I need to stop playing these soccer game live. It made me bipolar with the swing of things. If you watch the play by play in this game, it is down right stupid.
5/20/16 3:24pm
$47.68
$40.41
Pending
Soccer - .CS MARITIMO MADEIRA vs SL BENFICA - Odd/even Total goals scored for the Game Even -118
I'm on the even score for the game right? At 87 mins, I was winning as it was even. At 90 mins, it become odd and I went nuts
then at 94 mins, goal for the even again and that's the whole game. All them goals in a span of minutes. My gosh, I cashed but I'm calling it. I just can not tolerate these odd even score live betting plays. Play odd even total score in basketball will make me go nuts further.
Having said all that about Cubs series, I have no doubt someone will jsut call me an idiot and just say take Arrieta in game 1 at the value line of -195 and be done with it, no need to worry about game 2 or 3. So before anybody else says it, I will. I'm an idiot and tend to overthink things.
No will call you an idiot when Cubs lose tonight then take the next two though! So it's not completely irrational to do it the way you did. Stranger things have happened.
Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:
Having said all that about Cubs series, I have no doubt someone will jsut call me an idiot and just say take Arrieta in game 1 at the value line of -195 and be done with it, no need to worry about game 2 or 3. So before anybody else says it, I will. I'm an idiot and tend to overthink things.
No will call you an idiot when Cubs lose tonight then take the next two though! So it's not completely irrational to do it the way you did. Stranger things have happened.
@Mozart, draws are basically the reason why people say that soccer is not very good for betting because you have three outcomes instead of the two. That's why those who bet successfully in soccer usually concentrate on "over/under" or "both teams to score" rather than ML.
@Mozart, draws are basically the reason why people say that soccer is not very good for betting because you have three outcomes instead of the two. That's why those who bet successfully in soccer usually concentrate on "over/under" or "both teams to score" rather than ML.
MOZART, thank you for all that you do to help keep this thread going and for your well considered plays. I have tailed you many times and respect your analyses. Earlier today I just thought it was funny that we both looked to the standings to find a top team playing a bottom team. LAKERZ, I was going to warn you about the A.s game. It looks like an over, that's for sure. The pitchers have not performed well, have high whips, and that wind is blowing out again. My two cautions are the home/away splits for Sabathia and Gray and the cold, damp air at the stadium tonight. Since I'm making this my last post for the day, here's my card FWIW: the Ryan parlay--Mets and Cubs ML Parlay Mets ML, Cubs ML, Cavs -2 TB -05 TB/DET ov 9 CLE -110 CLE TT ov 4.5 Early posts: CLE/BOS ov 9 Tor/Min un 8.5 Top FLights: LAA -20 BALT/LAA ov 7.5 Parlay LAA and ov The TB and over plays are based on the idea that I think it's much more likely that both will win than lose. I will tail Newmi's play. GL to everyone tonight.
MOZART, thank you for all that you do to help keep this thread going and for your well considered plays. I have tailed you many times and respect your analyses. Earlier today I just thought it was funny that we both looked to the standings to find a top team playing a bottom team. LAKERZ, I was going to warn you about the A.s game. It looks like an over, that's for sure. The pitchers have not performed well, have high whips, and that wind is blowing out again. My two cautions are the home/away splits for Sabathia and Gray and the cold, damp air at the stadium tonight. Since I'm making this my last post for the day, here's my card FWIW: the Ryan parlay--Mets and Cubs ML Parlay Mets ML, Cubs ML, Cavs -2 TB -05 TB/DET ov 9 CLE -110 CLE TT ov 4.5 Early posts: CLE/BOS ov 9 Tor/Min un 8.5 Top FLights: LAA -20 BALT/LAA ov 7.5 Parlay LAA and ov The TB and over plays are based on the idea that I think it's much more likely that both will win than lose. I will tail Newmi's play. GL to everyone tonight.
Having said all that about Cubs series, I have no doubt someone will jsut call me an idiot and just say take Arrieta in game 1 at the value line of -195 and be done with it, no need to worry about game 2 or 3. So before anybody else says it, I will. I'm an idiot and tend to overthink things.
Don't worry about it lakerz I got your back
5/20/16 4:55pm
$1.00
$0.95
Pending
5/20/16 10:15pm Reduced Baseball 961 Chicago Cubs -1½ -105*vs San Francisco Giants (J Arrieta - R must Start J Peavy - R must Start)
X_____________________________
Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:
Having said all that about Cubs series, I have no doubt someone will jsut call me an idiot and just say take Arrieta in game 1 at the value line of -195 and be done with it, no need to worry about game 2 or 3. So before anybody else says it, I will. I'm an idiot and tend to overthink things.
Don't worry about it lakerz I got your back
5/20/16 4:55pm
$1.00
$0.95
Pending
5/20/16 10:15pm Reduced Baseball 961 Chicago Cubs -1½ -105*vs San Francisco Giants (J Arrieta - R must Start J Peavy - R must Start)
@Mozart, draws are basically the reason why people say that soccer is not very good for betting because you have three outcomes instead of the two. That's why those who bet successfully in soccer usually concentrate on "over/under" or "both teams to score" rather than ML.
There are a lot of things about soccer wagering that are counter-intuitive for people that normally only wager North American sports.
In the end, like anything, it's all about finding the right spot and right price to get value on a wager. Mozart is doing/saying a lot of things I remember myself doing/saying 6-7 years ago when I first started dabbling into the soccer wagering world.
There are a lot of leagues, and a lot of matches everyday, especially on the weekends from Aug - May. Try to focus on certain teams or leagues you have a feel for. Takes some time.
Mozart (or anyone) send me a PM if you have any questions. I'm not an expert by any means, but I have been down the road you are on and feel like I have learned a ton over the last several years.
Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_Strongman:
@Mozart, draws are basically the reason why people say that soccer is not very good for betting because you have three outcomes instead of the two. That's why those who bet successfully in soccer usually concentrate on "over/under" or "both teams to score" rather than ML.
There are a lot of things about soccer wagering that are counter-intuitive for people that normally only wager North American sports.
In the end, like anything, it's all about finding the right spot and right price to get value on a wager. Mozart is doing/saying a lot of things I remember myself doing/saying 6-7 years ago when I first started dabbling into the soccer wagering world.
There are a lot of leagues, and a lot of matches everyday, especially on the weekends from Aug - May. Try to focus on certain teams or leagues you have a feel for. Takes some time.
Mozart (or anyone) send me a PM if you have any questions. I'm not an expert by any means, but I have been down the road you are on and feel like I have learned a ton over the last several years.
There are a lot of things about soccer wagering that are counter-intuitive for people that normally only wager North American sports.
In the end, like anything, it's all about finding the right spot and right price to get value on a wager. Mozart is doing/saying a lot of things I remember myself doing/saying 6-7 years ago when I first started dabbling into the soccer wagering world.
There are a lot of leagues, and a lot of matches everyday, especially on the weekends from Aug - May. Try to focus on certain teams or leagues you have a feel for. Takes some time.
Mozart (or anyone) send me a PM if you have any questions. I'm not an expert by any means, but I have been down the road you are on and feel like I have learned a ton over the last several years.
Tell me this much if anyone knows.. Chime in.
I am seeing a game wagering with an option to play:
spread -1/2 +137 or ML +139
what's the difference and which one is a better play?
X_____________________________
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:
There are a lot of things about soccer wagering that are counter-intuitive for people that normally only wager North American sports.
In the end, like anything, it's all about finding the right spot and right price to get value on a wager. Mozart is doing/saying a lot of things I remember myself doing/saying 6-7 years ago when I first started dabbling into the soccer wagering world.
There are a lot of leagues, and a lot of matches everyday, especially on the weekends from Aug - May. Try to focus on certain teams or leagues you have a feel for. Takes some time.
Mozart (or anyone) send me a PM if you have any questions. I'm not an expert by any means, but I have been down the road you are on and feel like I have learned a ton over the last several years.
Tell me this much if anyone knows.. Chime in.
I am seeing a game wagering with an option to play:
spread -1/2 +137 or ML +139
what's the difference and which one is a better play?
Since 2013, the Orioles are 65-74 on the road as an away underdog (+6.5% ROI).
They're 20-17 as an away dog versus a left handed starting pitcher (+21.9% ROI) in that same time span.
The Angels are a long time under achieving team and the Orioles get the most out of their talent. The Orioles' bullpen is also very good, which is a more important factor than starting pitching in betting today's baseball. The Angels for whatever reason haven't played that well at home this year, 8-12, with the exception of having just played their rivals, the Dodgers. I'd rather play the Angels on the road as a dog.
Good teams that have had a rough patch at home tend to play well when going on the road and becoming underdogs, as the Orioles are tonight. And, it's not as if they lost to chopped liver, they played the Mariners who haven't lost a road series this year.
The market has priced the Angels as favorites based on:
a) Their recent play against the Dodgers
b) Their starting pitcher has been superior to the Orioles starting pitcher.
Taking a home favorite with a superior starting pitcher (superiority based on ERA) is a long term losing bet in major league baseball.
Good luck in your betting tonight....the analysis of the games on this page have been nice and the support everyone shows to each other is good, which is a very pleasant surprise. Don't know if I'd be game enough to do soccer, as I'm already getting up in the middle of the night to watch day game baseball (live in the far east) and don't want to make this a 24 hour/day obsession.
To play devil's advocate on the Angels/Orioles.
Since 2013, the Orioles are 65-74 on the road as an away underdog (+6.5% ROI).
They're 20-17 as an away dog versus a left handed starting pitcher (+21.9% ROI) in that same time span.
The Angels are a long time under achieving team and the Orioles get the most out of their talent. The Orioles' bullpen is also very good, which is a more important factor than starting pitching in betting today's baseball. The Angels for whatever reason haven't played that well at home this year, 8-12, with the exception of having just played their rivals, the Dodgers. I'd rather play the Angels on the road as a dog.
Good teams that have had a rough patch at home tend to play well when going on the road and becoming underdogs, as the Orioles are tonight. And, it's not as if they lost to chopped liver, they played the Mariners who haven't lost a road series this year.
The market has priced the Angels as favorites based on:
a) Their recent play against the Dodgers
b) Their starting pitcher has been superior to the Orioles starting pitcher.
Taking a home favorite with a superior starting pitcher (superiority based on ERA) is a long term losing bet in major league baseball.
Good luck in your betting tonight....the analysis of the games on this page have been nice and the support everyone shows to each other is good, which is a very pleasant surprise. Don't know if I'd be game enough to do soccer, as I'm already getting up in the middle of the night to watch day game baseball (live in the far east) and don't want to make this a 24 hour/day obsession.
I am seeing a game wagering with an option to play:
spread -1/2 +137 or ML +139
what's the difference and which one is a better play?
Let me guess, 5 dimes?
It's the same play. The have a habit of doing that, so obviously take the ML. My guess is that when they update the price on one, they either delay in getting the other one updated, or leave it in hopes someone takes the worse price by mistake.
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:
Tell me this much if anyone knows.. Chime in.
I am seeing a game wagering with an option to play:
spread -1/2 +137 or ML +139
what's the difference and which one is a better play?
Let me guess, 5 dimes?
It's the same play. The have a habit of doing that, so obviously take the ML. My guess is that when they update the price on one, they either delay in getting the other one updated, or leave it in hopes someone takes the worse price by mistake.
I hate that Finnish league though, for the record!
I've been following this topic for a long time, since NCAAB , but now it was time to participate in.
I live in Finland and I think that I have something to contribute to this topic, mostly in European football knowledge.
Newmi has exellent winning streak, with great choises. Most of those I had also on my coupongs.
Mozart, good call with HJK. Leaning tomorrow to SJK(last year champ) They had rough start to league, but minor changes to former roster, so they are getting there.
And finally... Sry for my grammar. English is my 3rd language, so deal with that.
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:
I hate that Finnish league though, for the record!
I've been following this topic for a long time, since NCAAB , but now it was time to participate in.
I live in Finland and I think that I have something to contribute to this topic, mostly in European football knowledge.
Newmi has exellent winning streak, with great choises. Most of those I had also on my coupongs.
Mozart, good call with HJK. Leaning tomorrow to SJK(last year champ) They had rough start to league, but minor changes to former roster, so they are getting there.
And finally... Sry for my grammar. English is my 3rd language, so deal with that.
I've been following this topic for a long time, since NCAAB , but now it was time to participate in.
I live in Finland and I think that I have something to contribute to this topic, mostly in European football knowledge.
Newmi has exellent winning streak, with great choises. Most of those I had also on my coupongs.
Mozart, good call with HJK. Leaning tomorrow to SJK(last year champ) They had rough start to league, but minor changes to former roster, so they are getting there.
And finally... Sry for my grammar. English is my 3rd language, so deal with that.
I'm all ears man, because I always struggle finding winners in Finland!
Your grammar/English is better than most from what I've seen (who speak it regularly) so no worries there brother!
Quote Originally Posted by fin6969:
I've been following this topic for a long time, since NCAAB , but now it was time to participate in.
I live in Finland and I think that I have something to contribute to this topic, mostly in European football knowledge.
Newmi has exellent winning streak, with great choises. Most of those I had also on my coupongs.
Mozart, good call with HJK. Leaning tomorrow to SJK(last year champ) They had rough start to league, but minor changes to former roster, so they are getting there.
And finally... Sry for my grammar. English is my 3rd language, so deal with that.
I'm all ears man, because I always struggle finding winners in Finland!
Your grammar/English is better than most from what I've seen (who speak it regularly) so no worries there brother!
It's the same play. The have a habit of doing that, so obviously take the ML. My guess is that when they update the price on one, they either delay in getting the other one updated, or leave it in hopes someone takes the worse price by mistake.
yup, you got it. I was curious about such lines as well. You are laying points and yet, your odds are worse than if you are on the mL? makes no sense to me.
I thought that if you play the ML, you still have the 3rd ball that can kill both sides of the play, the draw. If you opt for taking the spread +1/5, a draws will make you a winner. It is not like in MLB where I can buy -1 for my winning team just needs to win and if they win by 1, I get my money back or cancel play if it was in a parlay.
The spread -1/2 with less juice is a better play. If the score was 2-2 draw, the ML play would lose and the -1/2 spread line would lose as well. So if it is a draw, you lose both sides anyway but picking the -1/5 spread line and if win, you win a little more.
confusing but makes you wanna think if there is a strategy at play here. Thanks for the schooling bk.
X_____________________________
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:
Let me guess, 5 dimes?
It's the same play. The have a habit of doing that, so obviously take the ML. My guess is that when they update the price on one, they either delay in getting the other one updated, or leave it in hopes someone takes the worse price by mistake.
yup, you got it. I was curious about such lines as well. You are laying points and yet, your odds are worse than if you are on the mL? makes no sense to me.
I thought that if you play the ML, you still have the 3rd ball that can kill both sides of the play, the draw. If you opt for taking the spread +1/5, a draws will make you a winner. It is not like in MLB where I can buy -1 for my winning team just needs to win and if they win by 1, I get my money back or cancel play if it was in a parlay.
The spread -1/2 with less juice is a better play. If the score was 2-2 draw, the ML play would lose and the -1/2 spread line would lose as well. So if it is a draw, you lose both sides anyway but picking the -1/5 spread line and if win, you win a little more.
confusing but makes you wanna think if there is a strategy at play here. Thanks for the schooling bk.
Sticking with Cubs (Arrieta) and Mets (Matz). I like the White Sox with Quintana but I generally go with the great pitchers vs crappy pitchers scenario. Dillon Gee doesn't pitch that many innings so isn't as big a factor as normal. Guess it comes down to how good the KC middle relievers are. Too many question marks.
Be careful tailing my picks. It runs hot and cold. A lot of crappy pitchers suddenly turn into the 2nd coming of Walter "Big Train" Johnson on me!!
Jack Ryan
Sticking with Cubs (Arrieta) and Mets (Matz). I like the White Sox with Quintana but I generally go with the great pitchers vs crappy pitchers scenario. Dillon Gee doesn't pitch that many innings so isn't as big a factor as normal. Guess it comes down to how good the KC middle relievers are. Too many question marks.
Be careful tailing my picks. It runs hot and cold. A lot of crappy pitchers suddenly turn into the 2nd coming of Walter "Big Train" Johnson on me!!
yup, you got it. I was curious about such lines as well. You are laying points and yet, your odds are worse than if you are on the mL? makes no sense to me.
I thought that if you play the ML, you still have the 3rd ball that can kill both sides of the play, the draw. If you opt for taking the spread +1/5, a draws will make you a winner. It is not like in MLB where I can buy -1 for my winning team just needs to win and if they win by 1, I get my money back or cancel play if it was in a parlay.
The spread -1/2 with less juice is a better play. If the score was 2-2 draw, the ML play would lose and the -1/2 spread line would lose as well. So if it is a draw, you lose both sides anyway but picking the -1/5 spread line and if win, you win a little more.
confusing but makes you wanna think if there is a strategy at play here. Thanks for the schooling bk.
-0.5 and ML both lose on draw. If it was a PK line, then you push on draw, however that price will always be considerably higher than the ML. Think of it this way, like laying points in NFL. If you are laying points and it's a tie, you lose.
P'kem/DNB (draw no bet) line means draw = push
NTL (not to lose) means draw = win
ML (or -0.5) = draw lose
Different books offer up different ways to bet it and call things by different names. Doesn't help, but honestly after a while you'll just get it and it becomes 2nd nature.
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:
yup, you got it. I was curious about such lines as well. You are laying points and yet, your odds are worse than if you are on the mL? makes no sense to me.
I thought that if you play the ML, you still have the 3rd ball that can kill both sides of the play, the draw. If you opt for taking the spread +1/5, a draws will make you a winner. It is not like in MLB where I can buy -1 for my winning team just needs to win and if they win by 1, I get my money back or cancel play if it was in a parlay.
The spread -1/2 with less juice is a better play. If the score was 2-2 draw, the ML play would lose and the -1/2 spread line would lose as well. So if it is a draw, you lose both sides anyway but picking the -1/5 spread line and if win, you win a little more.
confusing but makes you wanna think if there is a strategy at play here. Thanks for the schooling bk.
-0.5 and ML both lose on draw. If it was a PK line, then you push on draw, however that price will always be considerably higher than the ML. Think of it this way, like laying points in NFL. If you are laying points and it's a tie, you lose.
P'kem/DNB (draw no bet) line means draw = push
NTL (not to lose) means draw = win
ML (or -0.5) = draw lose
Different books offer up different ways to bet it and call things by different names. Doesn't help, but honestly after a while you'll just get it and it becomes 2nd nature.
Cubs -1.5 This is a Pimp Nation play ONLY because it is Jake. He has NOT been at his best of late (albeit still awesome) and Peavy is on my FADE list albeit about to get off that list. SF (one of my favorite teams to make it to the World Series) has won 8 STRAIGHT and I NEVER Bet against a streak. However, Jake is Jake and I will NOT miss that opportunity. This line is WAY out of whack IMO so tread carefully. Suggestion: If Jake has made you some $, go for it. If not, enjoy the show.
Cleveland Over 9: I have looked at this game backwards and forwards. Buchholz is one of the worst pitchers in baseball (for a front line guy) but resides on a wonderfully talented offensive team. I do not see how Boston keeps Cleveland under 5 in this game. (So CLE TT Over looks good too) but I also think Kluber could struggle with the short porch in right. He simply CANNOT get Ls out right now. Let's hope for a Fireworks show tonight 7-3 or 7-4. I favor Cleveland slightly.
I would use this as a $$$$ play but I will pass for the simple reason the line scares me slightly. Like Lewis or not, he is a really good MLB pitcher. 9-1 vs Houston and 6-0 at Minute Maid. Granted the Texas CLOSER is in limbo, but i read where they are going to go with a feel for now...so Tolleson hopefully is feeling some pine. McCullers is better than a 9.64 ERA and a 2.45 WHIP, but he is going to have to show me. Texas has simply crushed Houston of late and I KNOW they are better the Houston in many categories. Texas seems to be a team that REALLY needs rest. I will research their brief record coming off a day off, but I promise it is salty.
Rain Play: This would have been my $$$$ today, but the rain could cause all sorts of issues So I will NOT play one today....I could make a $$$$ for each these games as I believe in all of them but I do see a few ???? with each as well. The Cincy bullpen has been epic this year...as in WORST EVER. They are only 5 games ahead of the Braves and I think ATL will catch them by the break. Seattle is simply crushing the ball...they DO lose the DH here, but Cruz should play right field which will be an adventure. NOTE: Can someone find a prop bet on OVER errors for Cruz in this series....at least 2 if he starts 3 games!!!!!
BK-That is too funny!!
Friday Night Under the lights:
Cubs -1.5 This is a Pimp Nation play ONLY because it is Jake. He has NOT been at his best of late (albeit still awesome) and Peavy is on my FADE list albeit about to get off that list. SF (one of my favorite teams to make it to the World Series) has won 8 STRAIGHT and I NEVER Bet against a streak. However, Jake is Jake and I will NOT miss that opportunity. This line is WAY out of whack IMO so tread carefully. Suggestion: If Jake has made you some $, go for it. If not, enjoy the show.
Cleveland Over 9: I have looked at this game backwards and forwards. Buchholz is one of the worst pitchers in baseball (for a front line guy) but resides on a wonderfully talented offensive team. I do not see how Boston keeps Cleveland under 5 in this game. (So CLE TT Over looks good too) but I also think Kluber could struggle with the short porch in right. He simply CANNOT get Ls out right now. Let's hope for a Fireworks show tonight 7-3 or 7-4. I favor Cleveland slightly.
I would use this as a $$$$ play but I will pass for the simple reason the line scares me slightly. Like Lewis or not, he is a really good MLB pitcher. 9-1 vs Houston and 6-0 at Minute Maid. Granted the Texas CLOSER is in limbo, but i read where they are going to go with a feel for now...so Tolleson hopefully is feeling some pine. McCullers is better than a 9.64 ERA and a 2.45 WHIP, but he is going to have to show me. Texas has simply crushed Houston of late and I KNOW they are better the Houston in many categories. Texas seems to be a team that REALLY needs rest. I will research their brief record coming off a day off, but I promise it is salty.
Rain Play: This would have been my $$$$ today, but the rain could cause all sorts of issues So I will NOT play one today....I could make a $$$$ for each these games as I believe in all of them but I do see a few ???? with each as well. The Cincy bullpen has been epic this year...as in WORST EVER. They are only 5 games ahead of the Braves and I think ATL will catch them by the break. Seattle is simply crushing the ball...they DO lose the DH here, but Cruz should play right field which will be an adventure. NOTE: Can someone find a prop bet on OVER errors for Cruz in this series....at least 2 if he starts 3 games!!!!!
That's great that you will help, bro! Thanks, and welcome to this thread.
Based on your numbers, women must like you a LOT, eh? Gotta love those two blonde bombshells in your avatar! Daymn, man, I'm drooling...
And thank you for the congrats on my first soccer play/win -- and thanks for the SJK tip.
Let me guess your languages that you read/speak:
1) Finnish
2) Russian
3) English
Right?
BK ~ Thanks, bro, for your offer to help! I've sent you a friends request. I'm very interested in shortening my learning curve and to avoid the common pitfalls of soccer newbies.
Brosuf ~ That one-dollar play ...
Quote Originally Posted by fin6969:
English is my 3rd language, so deal with that.
6969~
That's great that you will help, bro! Thanks, and welcome to this thread.
Based on your numbers, women must like you a LOT, eh? Gotta love those two blonde bombshells in your avatar! Daymn, man, I'm drooling...
And thank you for the congrats on my first soccer play/win -- and thanks for the SJK tip.
Let me guess your languages that you read/speak:
1) Finnish
2) Russian
3) English
Right?
BK ~ Thanks, bro, for your offer to help! I've sent you a friends request. I'm very interested in shortening my learning curve and to avoid the common pitfalls of soccer newbies.
@VITS @bk1374 @Francis2000 ... Thanks for the Serie B insight. As I mentioned, I wasn't playing it, but wanted to know why the value was there for the superior team. Now I know ... for the record, they drew 1-1
@VITS @bk1374 @Francis2000 ... Thanks for the Serie B insight. As I mentioned, I wasn't playing it, but wanted to know why the value was there for the superior team. Now I know ... for the record, they drew 1-1
Gotta love those two blonde bombshells in your avatar! Daymn, man, I'm drooling... 
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