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Bubba's $$$$ Thread ~ FRIDAY ~ Post Your BEST Play (With Write-up) ~ 05/20/16

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Posted: #26
bk1374, I could be wrong, but I think you didn't see that Newmi posted his thoughts on the game at posts #11 and 12.  Just trying to help.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by MaxWagner:

bk1374, I could be wrong, but I think you didn't see that Newmi posted his thoughts on the game at posts #11 and 12.  Just trying to help.

Missed that. LOL.  Thanks!  
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by MaxWagner:

$$$$$   CLE CAVALIERS -5 at TOR   $$$$$$

This is a total mismatch.  Toronto's big man Valucianis is going to be out for the rest of the series according to one of the post-game ESPN announcers last night.  Lowery definitely has a bad hip problem and cannot contribute.  Psychologically he and the team have little or no confidence.  Playing every other day and traveling gives them no chance to heal or counter CLE's onslaught, which coach Casey admitted in a post-game interview last night.  CLE is totally focused on sweeping this series and winning the title.  TOR only has one scorer and CLE can limit his production whenever they want or need to.
This is not David vs Goliath, but David's little sister vs Goliath on steroids.  Neither the fans nor home court can propel her to victory.
There are a lot of ways to make money here.  I have mentioned the $$$$ way, but you can also buy points, play the money line, tease, whatever makes you feel relatively safe.
When it becomes official that Valucianis is out, the line is moving to 6.5 or 7, which is reason to play it now.  If somehow he plays on his bad ankle, I don't think he'll be able to keep up with the pace CLE will put him through.  Again, coach Casey himself said that playing every other day makes it difficult for the team to heal and to figure out some way to beat CLE, although they will try.  I believe everyone involved knows that they cannot beat CLE right now under the current circumstances.

$$$$$   CLE CAVS -5 at TOR   $$$$$
 this game is being played tomorrow night
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by MaxWagner:

$$$$$   CLE CAVALIERS -5 at TOR   $$$$$$

This is a total mismatch.  Toronto's big man Valucianis is going to be out for the rest of the series according to one of the post-game ESPN announcers last night.  Lowery definitely has a bad hip problem and cannot contribute.  Psychologically he and the team have little or no confidence.  Playing every other day and traveling gives them no chance to heal or counter CLE's onslaught, which coach Casey admitted in a post-game interview last night.  CLE is totally focused on sweeping this series and winning the title.  TOR only has one scorer and CLE can limit his production whenever they want or need to.
This is not David vs Goliath, but David's little sister vs Goliath on steroids.  Neither the fans nor home court can propel her to victory.
There are a lot of ways to make money here.  I have mentioned the $$$$ way, but you can also buy points, play the money line, tease, whatever makes you feel relatively safe.
When it becomes official that Valucianis is out, the line is moving to 6.5 or 7, which is reason to play it now.  If somehow he plays on his bad ankle, I don't think he'll be able to keep up with the pace CLE will put him through.  Again, coach Casey himself said that playing every other day makes it difficult for the team to heal and to figure out some way to beat CLE, although they will try.  I believe everyone involved knows that they cannot beat CLE right now under the current circumstances.

$$$$$   CLE CAVS -5 at TOR   $$$$$


i agree was kind of shocked they opened it this low was thinking they would make is -7 or so in anticipation of all the cleveland money they would be getting.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Davitch:

@Francis2000 - Do you know Italia soccer? 

I was summoning my inner Newmi and stumbled across a Serie B matchup between Pescara and Latina.  Basically looks like a David vs. Goliath as Pescara (3rd) is 6-0-1 in last 7 and Latina (17th) is 1-3-3.  There's a huge difference in club size as I think Pescara's stadium holds 20k while Latina's holds maybe 7,000.  The crazy thing is Pescara is being offered at -105 and the only thing I can see as to why they are not bigger favourites is because the two sides have split their matches over the last 3-4 years.  This year however, it is clear which team is superior.  Obviously I don't know enough about the league to tip but ... does Goliath win this time?


Newmi makes it look easy, but generally soccer matches are tough to predict.
Anyway I don't like to bet on minor italian leagues cause in the recent years we have had a lot of fixed matches, with players and manager involved and eventually convicted...
Also you have to consider that here is the end of the season and you don't really know if teams are motivated or not to win matches.
Pescara is a better team by far, but Latina is close to the relegation, so they probably will fight hard to not lose this one.
And my area of expertise is tennis, WTA mainly, so I'm afraid I can't help you

 
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Posted: #31
Nothing I'm absolutely loving tonight.

Normally I would be all over Mets, Cubs, and white sox, but there all in a slump right now. I'm going to think it over. I still might play them all but just small. I'm hoping that the Cubs can get there offense back on top tonight with Arrieta on the mound. 
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

Quote Originally Posted by Jack Ryan:

Hit my risky
baseball parlay. My suspicion that Nova would have a good game and Graveman would suck actually happened. Sale was the no brainer part of the bet.   Nice selection of pitching matches for my ML Parlay today. Top 3 for me so far areMets w/Matz over a crappy Wily Peralta)White Sox w/Quntana over a respectable Dillon GeeCubs w/Arrieta over a crappy PeaveyMost likely Mets and Cubbies for me. Still looking them over.
jack ryan is the 2 teamer parlay master.  Don't  mind me tailing ya. 5/20/16 9:23am$60.00$696.61Pending6 Team ParlayPending5/20/16 7:10pm  MLB Baseball  958 New York Mets -1 -161* vs Milwaukee Brewers  (W Peralta - R must Start   S Matz - L must Start)Pending5/20/16 10:15pm  MLB Baseball  961 Chicago Cubs -1 -145* vs San Francisco Giants  (J Arrieta - R must Start   J Peavy - R must Start)Pending5/20/16 7:05pm  MLB Baseball  954 Philadelphia Phillies 1st 5 Innings -½ -115* vs Atlanta Braves  (M Wisler - R must Start   A Nola - R must Start)Pending5/20/16 7:10pm  MLB Baseball  955 Washington Nationals 1st 5 Innings -½ +100* vs Miami Marlins  (T Roark - R must Start   J Nicolino - L must Start)Pending5/20/16 10:00am  ATP Tennis  101 Stanislas Wawrinka -900* vs Lukas Rosol  Pending5/20/16 10:15am  ATP Tennis  401 Dominic Thiem -925* vs Adrian Mannarino


I now have 4 legs left. Both of my big odds tennis won.

Got lucky with my parlay i posted yesterday. 88 ish to rake in 770ish minus 125 since i was hedging my last 3 legs. In 2 days, i raked in 17 units or 1700 bux. Time to cash out a few n leave a few left in the account to grind things out for fun. Take money n run style. Know when to hold um n know when to fold um - kenny rogers

I see some reverse line move in the arrietta game. Hrmm discount or fishy? Mets n matz is good enough? Cws n Quintana? No one likes wnba like indiana fever?

I smell something, what do u smell?
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by waynest1:

 this game is being played tomorrow night

Wayne, no offense intended, but let me explain---I don't care if the game is tomorrow night any more than Newmi cares if a soccer match is the day after tomorrow.  I don't care if my play gets tracked or not, although I see nothing in the rules about posting only on the day of the game.  I am on this thread to help, just as I have been helped by so many others here.  If a line is probably going to move against us, I think it is advisable to post it earlier rather than later.
BTW, I know CLE is the public play, the square play, but, in reality, it is the only play!  Can TOR cover tomorrow night?  Sure, it's possible.  Nothing is ever a cinch, but the CLE play, especially if bought down a few points and played before the line goes up, has the fewest snags of any play available on today's board although played tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by MaxWagner:


Wayne, no offense intended, but let me explain---I don't care if the game is tomorrow night any more than Newmi cares if a soccer match is the day after tomorrow.  I don't care if my play gets tracked or not, although I see nothing in the rules about posting only on the day of the game.  I am on this thread to help, just as I have been helped by so many others here.  If a line is probably going to move against us, I think it is advisable to post it earlier rather than later.
BTW, I know CLE is the public play, the square play, but, in reality, it is the only play!  Can TOR cover tomorrow night?  Sure, it's possible.  Nothing is ever a cinch, but the CLE play, especially if bought down a few points and played before the line goes up, has the fewest snags of any play available on today's board although played tomorrow.

Nothing wrong at all about posting a game early, especially when lines and prices could move unfavorably.  

And I agree, ultimately doesn't matter if it's tracked or not.  While that's a great tool big picture, it's about winning $$$.  
 
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Posted: #35
Newmi, BK, et. al.,

1) Firstly, thank you, Newmi, for your recent winner!  

2) BK -- thanks for 'splain'n the left side being the home teams -- I found that out yesterday, so I'll stop pulling my hair out now. <grin>

3) I made my first play today (for one unit) and won -- HJK (2-1) against Lahti in Finland soccer.

I chose HJK because of their dominance and Lahti was in middle of the pack of teams. Lahti started out with wins/draws, then had two successive losses, so I figured that they would not draw with HJK, let alone beat them.

I also made this play because it was the one of the few plays that fit my criteria this morning; Saturday will have a TON of potential plays.

And it was a +121 win ... gotta love that plus money!

4) Parlay ~ HJK was the first leg of a half-unit, three team parlay to win six units; hopefully the other two teams (in Slovakia) would win, as they are top-tier teams playing bottom-tier teams.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:

Newmi, BK, et. al.,

1) Firstly, thank you, Newmi, for your recent winner!  

2) BK -- thanks for 'splain'n the left side being the home teams -- I found that out yesterday, so I'll stop pulling my hair out now.

3) I made my first play today (for one unit) and won -- HJK (2-1) against Lahti in Finland soccer.

I chose HJK because of their dominance and Lahti was in middle of the pack of teams. Lahti started out with wins/draws, then had two successive losses, so I figured that they would not draw with HJK, let alone beat them.

I also made this play because it was the one of the few plays that fit my criteria this morning; Saturday will have a TON of potential plays.

And it was a +121 win ... gotta love that plus money!

4) Parlay ~ HJK was the first leg of a half-unit, three team parlay to win six units; hopefully the other two teams (in Slovakia) would win, as they are top-tier teams playing bottom-tier teams.

Nicely done on the win!  Welcome to the world of soccer wagering. It's fun, but can be addicting.  I especially love it since it gives you action during the day when most N.A. sports are dormant.  It's a slippery slope though, so be careful!  Leagues going year round too, so about 365 days a year there is action (excluding a few holidays).

In just a few weeks we have the Copa America and Euro 2016 kicking off too, which should both be a lot of fun to watch and wager.  Swing by the soccer forum sometime if you want. Good crew over there, for the most part.  

I hate that Finnish league though, for the record!  



 
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Posted: #37

Angels (10:05PM ET MASN2, FSW, MLB.TV) – $$$$ out west tonight as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim welcome the Baltimore Orioles to the Big A for the opener of a three game set at Angels Stadium.  All it took for the Angels to wake up was for us to bash them last Friday as since their come from behind win over the Mariners they have rattled off wins in six of their last seven and just beat up on two solid teams in the Mariners and Dodgers during that run.  Tonight the Angels look to continue their solid form when they welcome another team we are high on this season in the Baltimore Orioles to town and while we still think the Orioles are the real deal in terms of hanging around the American League playoff picture, this team has had a ton of home cooking of late and we see a slight regression now that they finally embark on their first tough road trip of the season.  To date, the Orioles have only really had two road trips this season and both were in April, going 3-3 on a two city trip to Boston and Texas and 2-4 on a two city trip to Kansas City and Tampa Bay.   What’s amazing is aside from 12 road games in April where they went a pedestrian 5-7, they have only played two road games so far the entire month of May which was a quick two game trip to Minneapolis and while they won both against a lowly Twins team we see value in fading the Orioles here as they just haven’t had this kind of cross country travel all season.  In addition to the coast to coast trip from Baltimore to Anaheim, there is some precedent with this team being an average road team from seasons past as the Orioles have won approximately two thirds of their games at Camden Yards since the beginning of 2014.  Again, we are still high on this Orioles team as a whole but they have proven to be a far more beatable team on the road and this is an excellent spot for an Angels team that is finally heating up after a dreadful start to 2016.  The Orioles come in losers of three of their last four, an extremely rare occurrence at Camden Yards, and now face the daunting task of a three city trip to Anaheim, Houston and Cleveland, all teams on the uptick right now.  It looked like the Angels were left for dead after being decimated by injuries through the first six weeks of the season but it served to shake up an Angels roster that was scuffling and ultimately injected new life into this team in the process.  We have said all season that the Angels offense comes and goes as Mike Trout does and right now Trout is leading the way and all others have followed suit as Trout has homers in back to back games and the Angels have scored a whopping 52 runs over their last eight games after scoring just eight runs in their previous five.  When the Angels are hitting the ball they are a dangerous team, especially at home where the entire Angels roster seems to see the ball better, and while the rotation has been a patchwork effort so far this year the one constant and a guy we have really liked since the beginning of the season, Hector Santiago, gets the ball for the Halos tonight.  We have already successfully backed Santiago multiple times this year albeit way back in the early part of April and after the way he outdueled Felix Hernandez last time out he looks like a worthy investment here.  Santiago tossed a career high eight innings of two hit shutout ball against the Mariners and has fared well against this Orioles lineup during his career boasting a 2.57 ERA against the Orioles though he hasn’t faced them since 2014.  Still, there are a number of guys on this Orioles team that have been around for a few years where this metric is still meaningful and with the Orioles offensive numbers dipping significantly away from home we really like the matchup for Santiago here.  Mike Wright gets the ball for the Orioles tonight and while he comes off a great start against the Tigers, Wright is being used more out of necessity than anything here as he has a 5.20 ERA and is a borderline major league starter at best.  If the Orioles rotation was healthy top to bottom Wright would be in the bullpen or still in AAA and while he is still young and has only logged 81 innings so far in his big league career, his ERA dating back to his debut last season is 5.67 and this is someone we see the Angels being able to do some damage against.  From a matchup standpoint this one is pretty even but we have the Orioles coming into this game having played yesterday and having to make the cross country journey, scuffling a bit losing three of four, while the Angels look to build on back to back home wins and come in playing their best ball of the season.  The Angels are the right side here tonight and we will back them to continue their resurgence and knock off an Orioles team that will get back on track eventually, just not on the road tonight.  

$$$$ Angels -125

I want to preface this by saying I absolutely love this Orioles team this year but their value is at home.  They are an average team on the road, have been for years and I think we get the Angels in a great spot here tonight. topflightsportsinfo dot com

Lets get another $$$$ winner tonight!

 
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Posted: #38
question for soccer boys.  I know that the game is 2 45mins halves  with 15 mins break. 

I am looking at this game here with a live play and can't wait for the game to end to cash in my money.  It says 95mins and running.. 

This is why I let newmi does the work for me.  I don't play leg ball. 
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Posted: #39
AIK vs Falkenbergs over 2.5 WINNNNNERRRR
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Bnyce21:

AIK vs Falkenbergs over 2.5 WINNNNNERRRR


Did you tail me or I tailed you? 

5/20/16 2:00pm$100.00$83.33$183.33WinSoccer - .FALKENBERGS FF vs AIK - Odd/even Total goals scored for the Game Odd -120

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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by Bnyce21:

AIK vs Falkenbergs over 2.5 WINNNNNERRRR

OMFG ... I forgot to put in that Over play today! Grrrrrr.

Congrats on the win, though, Bnynce!

Brosuf~

Soccer runs for a total of 90 minutes in the two-45-minute halves that you mentioned; however, the clock runs continuously, even with stoppages in play, injuries, etc.

So, with the discretion of the refs, play can be extended a few minutes beyond the 90 minutes to compensate for injury stoppages, etc.

Soccer ML plays -- I suppose that the reason that even favorites often have + plays is because of the draw factor and because if one picks a team to win on the ML, if there is a draw, the ML play loses and does not push -- right?

I'm a soccer newbie, but I'm learning.

And it's VERY clear to me that soccer is the most-widely played sport in the world, hands-down. No wonder why it's so popular.

Just a ball, some legs and a field (can be a street, a backyard, etc) and you have soccer.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

question for soccer boys.  I know that the game is 2 45mins halves  with 15 mins break. 

I am looking at this game here with a live play and can't wait for the game to end to cash in my money.  It says 95mins and running.. 

This is why I let newmi does the work for me.  I don't play leg ball. 

The clock never stops, so each half can have extra minutes added on to it, to account for injuries or any delays.  2nd halves generally have about 2-5 added on, with some exceptions of course.  The wagers aren't graded until the ref blows the final whistle.  

If you are watching the match live, right about as the 90th minute starts (at 89:01) you'll see the sideline official hold up an electronic card with the number of added minutes.

To further complicate things, if there are goals/delays/injuries after 90 minutes, even more time can be added and just how much is really up to the ref, and again, nothing is over until the final whistle.


 
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Posted: #43
Wow what a poor game that was. First three goals was given away by both keepers, unreal. Nice to get the three points, and very nice to see you guys taking matters in your own hands and cashing that over.

I've got my play for sunday and will post it shortly.
 
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Posted: #44
Wow, looks like Thursday was parlay 'winner winner chicken dinner' fiesta day!

Bnyce won a nice one
Dab won a nice one
Jack Ryan wins yet another one of his patented 2 teamers
nfl_brosuf wins a nice one
I win a nice one

That must be a record for one day on this thread?

@maxwagner - thx for clarification on the winds swirls at Giants and As home stadiums.  I always take those weather sites with a grain of salt in terms of what *actual* field conditions are given how stadiums are structured.  I believe someone else mentioned only the Cubs and Rockies have home stadiums where wind reports almost always can affect the game?

I also appreciate the early heads up on Cavs game 3.  Don't worry, vast majority here welcome early input (or plays) on future games.  As you say, that is where the best lines can usually be found by striking early before the public picks over the bones.

I also like how Pimp will look at the schedule ahead for a team to start formulating his baseball 'mad genius' plan for betting domination in terms of what to consider.  Speaking of which, does anybody do series bets?  Sometimes better value can seemingly be found by just betting a team to win the series rather than one given game.  I've been dabbling at them this season with good success.  Okay, I fess up, I'm only 1-0 so far LOL with 1 pending.

@mozart - nice soccer hit.  I will have to add you the list of soccer winners to tial now along with newmi and bk. 
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

question for soccer boys.  I know that the game is 2 45mins halves  with 15 mins break.  I am looking at this game here with a live play and can't wait for the game to end to cash in my money.  It says 95mins and running..  This is why I let newmi does the work for me.  I don't play leg ball.

The 5 minutes ( but can be 1, 2, 3 or more) are extra time, the referee decides how long it has to be ( cause during the game there might have been injuries, faults, players delaying and so on)
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:



Did you tail me or I tailed you? 

5/20/16 2:00pm$100.00$83.33$183.33WinSoccer - .FALKENBERGS FF vs AIK - Odd/even Total goals scored for the Game Odd -120


NFL Brosuf, do you realize that you laid quite a bit of juice that the final total would be an odd number, and that you didn't bet the over?

I did a similar thing yesterday.  Thinking I had discovered a rare middle on a baseball total, I discovered after I made the plays that I had wagered on games on different days at a cite where they put up tomorrow's baseball early with today's baseball lines.
 
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Posted: #47
I got schooled today.  Thank you guys for the education in the leg ball league. 

I have no idea what I am doing.  You guys throw out them leg plays and I will find all sorts of way to bet on such teams but I'm off with my strategy on it.  It is not the same as them other games. 

I got hosed out on juice. 
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Posted: #48
This thread is the definition of what a sports betting forum should consist of. No bashing. No B1tching. Just coming together and posting picks with a little reasoning behind it. 
 
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Posted: #49
@matt2268 - any thoughts on today's NHL playoff game?  Very nice hit (yet again) for ya yesterday.  Silly me, I thought Tampa would continue their solid play at home in game 3 and keep putting the pressure on Pittsburgh.  Yet, it was Pitts talented scorers that seemingly kept Tampa on their heels the whole game.  Now I see Pitt is a big favorite again on the road in game 4.  Does Tampa have anything left?  I think I heard Bishop is not playing today.  Take the over?

The only MLB plays I have locked in today are

White Sox (Quintana listed) -162

Texas (Colby listed) +130

LA Angels (Santiago listed) -127  (tailing TopFlight on this one like how Angels are swinging the lumber again + Santiago is the one pitcher on that staff I have faith in)

NYY/OAK full game over 7.5 (-115)

Chicago Cubs series bet (-155) - The way I see it, in the first two games Cubs should win each one at roughly a 66% chance (-200 line).  Thus, the odds of having Arrieta win game 1 and Lester win game 2 would be around 45%.  The odds of one guy winning and the other losing would be around 44%, with only a 11% chance of both losing.  In game 3 I project Bumgarner to be around a -160 to -170 favorite depending on how the first two games go.

So my strategy will be to bet a unit on this and know I have a fairly strong chance of winning the bet, and should the first two games split I still have an opportunity to buy out the bet in game 3 to only lose 0.5 - 0.65 units instead of a full unit.  Or perhaps I roll the dice in game 3, it depends on what I see out of the Cubs offense.  Hopefully they are not stuck in an offensive rut all of a sudden.  I would hate to think they make both Peavy and Cain look like Gods.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:

@matt2268 - any thoughts on today's NHL playoff game?  Very nice hit (yet again) for ya yesterday.  Silly me, I thought Tampa would continue their solid play at home in game 3 and keep putting the pressure on Pittsburgh.  Yet, it was Pitts talented scorers that seemingly kept Tampa on their heels the whole game.  Now I see Pitt is a big favorite again on the road in game 4.  Does Tampa have anything left?  I think I heard Bishop is not playing today.  Take the over?

The only MLB plays I have locked in today are

White Sox (Quintana listed) -162

Texas (Colby listed) +130

LA Angels (Santiago listed) -127  (tailing TopFlight on this one like how Angels are swinging the lumber again + Santiago is the one pitcher on that staff I have faith in)

NYY/OAK full game over 7.5 (-115)

Chicago Cubs series bet (-155) - The way I see it, in the first two games Cubs should win each one at roughly a 66% chance (-200 line).  Thus, the odds of having Arrieta win game 1 and Lester win game 2 would be around 45%.  The odds of one guy winning and the other losing would be around 44%, with only a 11% chance of both losing.  In game 3 I project Bumgarner to be around a -160 to -170 favorite depending on how the first two games go.

So my strategy will be to bet a unit on this and know I have a fairly strong chance of winning the bet, and should the first two games split I still have an opportunity to buy out the bet in game 3 to only lose 0.5 - 0.65 units instead of a full unit.  Or perhaps I roll the dice in game 3, it depends on what I see out of the Cubs offense.  Hopefully they are not stuck in an offensive rut all of a sudden.  I would hate to think they make both Peavy and Cain look like Gods.


Would love to tail you on the over yanks/a's but I just can't.  Stats are stacking against ya. 

Under is 9-1-1 in Sabathia’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record
Under is 5-2 in Sabathia’s last 7 starts vs. American League West

Under is 15-5-2 in Athletics last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing record

I mean freaking stats man.  It is not an automatic correct way to cap games but it is still an indicator. 

I cap first and if stats does not enhances my cap, I bail out.  No play for me. 
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