Last2Thirst Gut/Pattern Betting - March/April

KEEPING STREAKS ALIVE >  Record: use only  streaks 3 - 6 games in a row:

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a.  Over Streaks of 3 - 6 in a row >   28 - 28 (season)  = 50.0%  (rise 1.1 %)  << not playable

b.  Under Streaks of 3 - 6 in a row >   61 - 44 (season)  = 58.1% (same )  << playable 

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c. Win Streaks of 3 to 6 games >   48- 33 (season)  = 59.3% (2.3% drop )  << playable but dropping

slowly over 2 weeks now

d. Losing Streaks of 3 - 6 games  >   47 - 38 (season)  = 55.3%  (3.7% drop)  <<  no longer playable

e. Losing streak vs a  Leftie >  =  (season 5 - 2) = 71%  >> VERY PLAYABLE 

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Teams on Win Streaks Sunday of 3 - 6 games:

Detroit (2)

Cleveland (5)

Chicago White Sox (2)

Seattle (3)

Cincinnati (2)

San Diego (3)

Under Streaks:

Philadelphia (4)

St. Louis (4)

..........these are the only two teams on a UNDER Streak and playing each other tomorrow

Losing Streaks vs Lefthander:

Yankees (3)

Boston (2)

Baltimore (2)

Seattle (2)

Miami (2)

St. Louis (2)

Pittsburgh (2)

Arizona  (2)

San Diego (3)

NOTE: - I found more as I went through >> actual STREAK losses continued after 2 Loses to Lefties = 10 - 5 

My early Play of the Day as I work through the games is:

Washington ML x 1U

-Marlins on two game losing streak vs lefties

-Marlins have not produced a hit vs Gore in 23 ABs

-Washington hit Quantrill well for avg and power 

Cautionary Note: Marlins have been hitting well in day games and against lefties BUT ..... they have lost those games and I have the better pitchers but not better hitting team maybe 

I think you can trust the data, but not my selection process. . This is officially a rut I am in and its indicative of why I am being slow and patients. It won't stop me from posting my data patterns and use it accordingly. I might go back to playing 3 plays instead the pressure of one....so 1 or 3.

Wind is blowing out in Cincy to left centre but I like to fade the total because:

-2 loses in a row by Seattle to a lefthander

-Seattle facing a tough lefthander in Lodolo

-Reds facing their old ace in Castillo

Seattle hits .188 at night and .188 vs lefthanders 

Reds hit .203 at home and .212 at night

And, we have an UNDER umpire this year and last year was 16 - 8 UNDER

Seattle - Cincy Under 8.5 x1U

GL tonight 

Friday: - took a break these past 4 days >> terrible contrarian streak vs my picks when it screams 'go with trend'

-I know that if you play trends that are logical, you can get very streaky and I hate picking on hunches..not my style!!

- will update stats when done and only post what is strong (58% or better) since the start of year (every game recorded)

Play #1 - Baltimore-Cincy Under 9.5 @1.78 x HALF U

-Cincy hits .146 vs lefties

-Baltimore hits Under .200 BA vs lefties  and playing at night Under .200 BA

Play #2 - Twins - Braves Over 8 x HALF U

- warm night but ....dry air ...not great for HRs but good air to hit singles/doubles

- two very high era pitchers + a traditionally high run avg umpire

- Braves hit .301 at home! 

- Braves in 9 run or more games for the past 5 out 6 

- Twins playing well lately and should be good for 3-5 runs >> I lean Atlanta here because Paddack is a gas can this year and Atlanta knows how he pitches and same for Twins vs Elder

......aim to have one more play before I am done but booking these now 

Play #3 - Cleveland runline -1.5 @ +125 and Cleveland ML @1.74 x HALF U each 

-Pirates are a dumpster fire and likely not very good vs a good hitting American League team

-Pirates hit .196 and .197 to either rightie or leftie and Cleveland has a good bullpen so even if the game is tight, I expect the Guardians to come back into the game if down or forge ahead in the late innings 

Might find two more....if I only find 1.....I will make a judgement call for a late play to post later on

Play #4  Padres ML  +135  and UNDER 9 Runs  - HALF U each 

-Astros hit lefties for a .129 avg and are on a two game losing streak vs them

-San Diego is one of the best hitting teams and highest run scoring/base running aggression teams

- Teams that have lost 2 or more vs a leftie have not won the 3rd game or more to this record > 13 - 8 losing streak continues

Play #5  - SF - Angels Under 8 x HALF U

-SF is a good hitting teams but not vs lefties = .207

-Tyler Anderson having a good year

-cool weather and wind no factor ....cool night air will keep ball in the park 

-Angels are going to be groggy at the plate from their east coast trip they flew in late last night

Friday: - summary of plays/results

Play #1 - Baltimore-Cincy Under 9.5 @1.78 x HALF U   

Play #2 - Twins - Braves Over 8 x HALF U   

Play #3 - Cleveland runline -1.5 @ +125   and Cleveland ML @1.74 x HALF U each 

Play #4  Padres ML  +135   and UNDER 9 Runs  - HALF U each  

Play #5  - SF - Angels Under 8 x HALF U  

I'll take a winning night  ........down on the season BUT....starting to hone in on how teams hit and handle which type of pitchers

KEEPING STREAKS ALIVE >  consider only games  streaks of 3 - 6 games (cap) in a row whether using TOTAL or RESULT for my selections

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ALL GAMES IN THE SEASON ARE RECORDED UNDER THE FOLLOWING CRITERIA:

a.  Over Streaks of 3 - 6 games in a row >   43 - 37 (season)  = 53.8%  (rise 3.8 %)  

b.  Under Streaks of 3 - 6 games in a row >   80 - 63 (season)  = 55.9%  (decline 2.2%) 

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c. Win Streaks of 3 to 6 games >   66 - 50 (season)  = 56.9%  (decline 2.4% ) 

d. Losing Streaks of 3 - 6 games  >   68 - 53 (season)  = 56.2%  (rise almost 1%)  

e. Losing streak vs a  Leftie 3 games or more >  =  16 - 12  =  57.1%  

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Strong Hitting Teams Situationally:

Excellent at Home:

LA Angels  .308

Atlanta      .301

St. Louis    .292

Excellent vs Lefties:

Toronto   .293

Oakland  .290

Miami     .288

Weakest Hitting Situations:

Minnesota vs lefties  .122

Houston  vs  lefties   .129

Cinncinati vs  lefties  .146

Pittsburgh on road    .173

Seattle  at home      .187

Looking forward to your plays tomorrow 

Thanks JFEEZEE 

.........not many have been thinking that lately 

But, I think the data is going to lead me to the best opportunities and hope you are coming for a ride occasionally when it really starts to flow. My NCAAB season mirrored my start here in Baseball and then I really got on a roll until the last 1/3 of the season

Saturday Ideas: - where edges apply using my data + potholes mentioned

 KC - Detroit > Tigers ....lean Tigers due to terrible hitting away games and vs right handers ....that said, they historically hit Mize for over .400 

Arizona - Cubs ....two very strong hitting teams in all situations with wind blowing in at Wrigley but I still think the total could fall in this game

Cincy - Baltimore ....Cincy does not hit well in DAY games but have one of their best on the mound - Orioles bringing up a young pitcher for first ML start ..... I smell an UNDER? Baltimore bashers will be told to cut down their swings and give the rookie a chance since Reds are iffy themselves during day games > Total is 9 runs > warm air and very strong wind blowing out.....I am re-thinking this angle 

Fade Skenes? Or Under? - Pitt is not great hitting in Day games or against righties 

I want to see who the umpire is and then I might take the UNDER 8...

Strong lean to Rangers- Dodgers Under 8.5 .... two capable pitchers and both these teams are not tearing the ball cover off and Texas homefield has become an UNDER stadium

Red Sox should cover that runline but its tiny.....White Sox are terrible hitting in Day games and Away facing the ace of the Red Sox....they seem to be sending out a decent pitcher for the White hosen BUT CHECK OUT THE WIND rating at 16 mph out to dead centre field 

Washington-Colorado..... Rockies decent hitting at home and Nationals are not good hitting away but their pitcher has had success vs the Rockies. Very cool air blowing out to leftfield so I am not sure how to read this game....lean UNDER 9 but just which that number was higher

Play #1 - SD Padres ML x 1U 

-insta bet when I see Mike King pitching and a night game for Houston who only hit .194 at night

-it helps that SD lost last night as they are  2 - 1 after losing a game and only have one 2 game losing streak all season which was vs the Cubs and the Astros are NOT the Cubs 

Play #2 - Atlanta -1.5 @+100  x HALF U  and OVER 7.5 x HALF U

-Minny is not good vs a lefty and Atlanta hits for over .300 at home facing a gas can type of pitcher

-Sale has been a little bit of a gas can himself but his record is good vs the Twins and this game presents an opportunity to reset for him 

-Warm with slight wind blowing into 3rd base side of the field

Leans for Play #3 > Angels or Under  > Red Sox alternative runline -2.5 > Pirates Under 8 > or even Dodgers -Rangers Under 8.5 looks tasty 

- my 3rd selection will come down to umpires likely and also I like waiting to see if there is a surprise pitching change 

Wind is picking up in Chicago and getting cooler....avoiding that game to go OVER now

Strong lean to OVER in the Mets game now.... 20 mph wind to dead centre and ball carries well there in this scenario

Umpire allows about 1 HR per 3 innings so the Cards are a high avg hitting team and the Mets have some dangerous hitters..

Strong wind blowing out to left field in Pittsburgh and this protects the fastball pitches as long as they work the edges/outside of the plate or high strike ..... could see rain delay or rainout halfway through ....strong lean to UNDER 8 now with the weak Pittsburgh hitters and Skenes neutralizing Clev bats if he is strategic with his catcher calling setup pitches 

Lean Texas vs the Dodgers now instead of Under as Sasaki walks at a high rate and Eovaldi does not.....he has only allowed 2 walks in April and 1 HR so far ....UNDER should be good or take 

Really like the -2.5 for the Red Sox with Crotchet having a very high K-rate vs a feeble hitting road team here....... Shane Smith walks hitters and that is not good vs a good contact team like the Red Sox

LA Angels is where I lean in the late game....they hit well at home

Texas - Dodgers Under 8.5 was Play #3 for me x HALF U......forgot to post but I was leaning that way in my two earlier posts today

San Diego is my main play and feel like presses on them .....just might after the 1st inning if King allows no runs but will do so in-game

Play #1 - SD Padres ML x 1U   << NOPE!! ....they could not hold a 2 - 0 lead after 6 innings

Play #2 - Atlanta -1.5 @+100  x HALF U  and OVER 7.5 x HALF U  << NOPE ....what a grind baseball is .... get 3-4 innings to close the deal and they cannot. Unreal

Texas - Dodgers Under 8.5 was Play #3 for me x HALF U  

....will keep trying to use my data plays

Plays Sunday:

Cleveland ML

Over Phillies

Lean Jays if they are sending out a lefty vs Seattle (double check before game they don't switch pitchers)

Tigers -1.5 

Oakland  (only if Milwaukee puts out a lefty)

Arizona

Under Texas 8.5

Col-Nationals Game 2 Over maybe....

Will select 3 - 5 picks out of these one I look over other factors tomorrow

Red Sox Over 9.5 Half U

CWS +235 x HALF U << gotta take a stab despite a homer umpire 23 -10 last year for home team (think contrarian today)

 Under 9 x Half U and Cincy +173 x HALF U

Cleveland ML +100 x Half U  and UNDER 8 Half U

Phillies Over 8 x Half U

Twins ML x Half U

Jays ML x Half U

Tigers -1.5 x 2U

10 Plays.....some good prices ....one press

Lets see how we do out of 10 plays

So many NO WINS VS LEFTHANDER STREAKS today.....sticking with those streaks

Also:

Half U each > Yankess -1.5 +105 , Oakland +115, Colorado Game #1 ML , LA Angels ML 

Also > Texas ML +135 with better pitcher in Mahle 

15 game package today and its because I hit a nice Pick5 in horses last night.... $1200 win (cost me $56 to get it)

RESULTS SO FAR:

Red Sox Over 9.5 Half U  

CWS +235 x HALF U   NO

 Under 9 x Half U    and Cincy +173 x HALF U   

 Cleveland ML +100 x Half U   and UNDER 8 Half U  

 Phillies Over 8 x Half U  

 Twins ML x Half U  NO

 Jays ML x Half U   NO

 Tigers -1.5 x 2U   NO

Half U each > Yankess -1.5 +105   , Oakland +115  NO , Colorado Game #1 ML  - NOT YET , LA Angels ML   - NOT YET

Also > Texas ML +135   JUST STARTING...

Trending 6 - 6 right now with 3 to begin and losing my biggie play (Detroit runline)

RESULTS SO FAR:

 Red Sox Over 9.5 Half U  

CWS +235 x HALF U   

 Under 9 x Half U    and Cincy +173 x HALF U   

 Cleveland ML +100 x Half U   and UNDER 8 Half U  

 Phillies Over 8 x Half U   

 Twins ML x Half U  NO

 Jays ML x Half U   NO

 Tigers -1.5 x 2U      ???

Half U each > Yankess -1.5 +105   , Oakland +115  NO , Colorado Game #1 ML  - NO , LA Angels ML   - ???

Also > Texas ML +135   ???

So Far:

2 - 1

Trending 5 - 4 right now ...  3 games undetermined ???

Looking for a 9 - 6 or  8 - 7 type of day with my big play on Detroit covering.....

Huge wind to right field blowing out in Yankees game .....

Give me Over Yankees 8.5 x HALF U

Looking into other games

Been getting stuck a lot on a HALF RUN over or under my number a lot the past month......Yanks and Guards are stuck on 8 runs now in the 7th inning 

Can always count on the yanks!